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Why we can support START.

I think we can support START for more than a few reasons. 

First, I think we have an obligation to the world to lead in the area of nuclear deterence.  But the United States also needs to lead in the area of Nuclear non-proliferation.  Russia and the United States are the two main nuclear powers.  If we can reach an agreement with them, then we can perhaps get nuclear weapons regimes under control.

Second, I do take to heart the efforts of Presidents Reagan and GHW Bush in trying to rein in nuclear stockpiles in the old Soviet Union.  I think START is a non-offensive way to do this.  Would I prefer a stronger minded president?  Of course, but this treaty is not going to change that either.  We won’t get a new president until 2013 at the earliest, so we should try to envision a set-up where the new president is able to lead from a modest framework of nuclear arms control.

Third, this is not unilateral disarmament as some would say.  Ronald Reagan used to say trust, but verify.  We have the ability in this treaty to try to verify Russian nuclear weapons reductions.  Does this assuage the conservative mind in me regarding the Obama administration?  The answer is no.  But I do feel that a stronger willed administration would be willing to appoint strong people to monitor the Russians and decide if they are cheating.  Again, with this administration, I understand the problems inherent trusting them to do what is right, but I also want a framework that a stronger administration can work from. 

Fourth, we need to reaffirm our commitment to bi-lateral agreements regarding nuclear weapons.  If anything, this treaty demonstrates the ability of the diplomatic system to work outside the United Nations.  We are working with nations on a one-to-one basis, which reinforces our ability to conduct diplomacy without a UN imprimatur.

Fifth, and most importantly, we conservatives need to de-link this treaty from the Obama Administration’s poorly decided nuclear response policy.  That policy is the height of naivte or worse.  However, it is not the same thing as a basic international framework for control of nuclear weapons, which is in the interest of the United States and Russia.  I also know that this administration has demonstrated weakness on the world stage multiple times, but administrations change.  Chances to re-assert a time tested regime of Nuclear weapons reductions and controls are not.  I think it is in the best interests of the country to support Senate ratification of this treaty.  I hope enough Republicans in the Senate see it that way too.  We can be critical of the President’s weakness and his apparent apologies for our country.  But we can replace him.  We should replace him.  We should not torpedo what has been a hallmark of bi-partisan bi-lateral diplomacy of this country for twenty-five years just to register our disapproval of this obviously misguided president.

COMMENTS

  • drohan00

    we have stimulated a fairly informative discussion on a key topic of the day. We have been smart and fact based. My support for the START treaty has waned a bit, but I will say that this has been a fairly good exchange of information.

    I still see nuclear weapons reductions as the key for the United States and the world. I deeply respect the work of Dick Lugar and Sam Nunn on this issue. I think it is paramount that we get the world’s nuclear stockpiles under control. I hope we can find a vehicle for doing so. I had hoped this was the vehicle, but perhaps it is not.

    Anyway, thanks to all of you for your discussion and helping me flesh out my own position.

    • http://sandysalt.blogspot.com/ sandysalt

      I agree that we need to maintain tight control of the world’s nukes, but we must do it in a well thought out plan and with an eye to the future. We can’t allow ourselves to lose critical skills and equipment by just letting them decay away (inside joke there).

    • JSobieski

      I think the key issue is to stop the wrong kind of country get one or two nukes. Reducing the number of nuclear weapons in the arsonals of countries like the US or even Russia is pretty far down my goals for the decade.

      Unless of course we get something for it, like real cooperation with Iran, etc.

      The number of missiles in the stockpile are pretty much irrelevant unless you go below a certain level, and we won’t get close to that. Its the type of weapons and the underlying signals being sent that matter far more.

      • drohan00

        we need to make some gesture in order to get the Russians and the Chinese to get serious on Iran.

        This is a longshot. We might get nothing, but if we take a few modest steps, then we tell them that we did something, we now need a quid pro quo. That is how diplomacy works. People don’t just do what is right, so you cajole them.

        I will oppose START if it hampers SDI. But I think that a reduction in loose nukes is a good idea. If that means we get rid of a few of our nukes, while retaining a deterrent, I support that.

        If you have ever played the game Diplomacy, you know it is all based on deciet and lies. But we have to use the fig leaf to let them think they are getting something. I am mostly a conservative ideologue on domestic policy. I am largely a pragmatist on foriegn policy. I hate fig leaves etc. But if that means the Russians will destroy some more loose nuclear material, by all means let’s do it.

        • http://www.veronicaestrada.com/ Veronica Estrada

          whatever vehicle’s available — this Obama Administration — and trusting that he has America’s interests at heart.

          You can’t negotiate and play “Dimplomacy” with China or Russia because they are nationalists. They have a strong sense of national identity, where Obama has none.

          Why do you think he keeps bowing to world leaders? He’s showing himself — repeatedly — to be a global citizen before an American citizen .. and indicating he’s ready to cowtow to everyone else for the sake of “diplomacy.”

          Fig leaf or no, there is NO guarantee they will be fair players.

          Aside from Obama being a mutt of marxism, fascism, statist and every anti-American sentiment in the book, Obama is an opportunist.

          And an organizer.

          That means “leading” the progressive intent to disolve America, make sure she pays reparations to the world, beginning with the biggest card.

          START provides that opportunity.

  • othniel

    I am strongly in favor of using US military power in our self-interest abroad. But nuclear proliferation is not in our self-interest: it is suicidal. I think the question of taking proliferation seriously is not one of conservative v. liberal or even bravery v. cowardice but instead one of insanity v. sanity.

    Skimming through the thread above, I notice that some are concerned that this treaty affects types of missiles which they claim would be useful to missile defense. Therefore they claim this treaty should be scuttled. But the reality is that this treaty is actually extremely modest in its reductions. We would need to go considerably farther to even bring down the number of nuclear weapons to the point where our arsenal would merely be capable of obliterating the world only once as opposed to many times over. The question that I think both Democrats and Republicans should be asking, then, is why we are not much more ambitious in seeking reductions.

    As started earlier, I am strongly in favor of using US conventional superiority to obtain economic benefits for our nation. One seeming failure is the willingness to let the nation of Iraq hand out its oil contracts to third parties without giving US/UK companies more preferential treatment. But when it comes to nuclear weapons, we should not delude ourselves into thinking that our situation is anything other than standing knee deep in gasoline and arguing about who has more matches.

    • http://www.veronicaestrada.com/ Veronica Estrada

      why aren’t we the ones with the power to take away their matches??

      What economic benefits? Obama is intent on draining us in every way.

      I’m still waiting for analysis on the reparations/welfare we give to numerous countries out there to rectify our “Imperialism” and the disdain of the world, and how that compares to the welfare here on the domestic side.

      For all the money we dish out, corrupt governments still do what they want and we can’t keep our nukes.

      Ah, but this is an old thread!

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  • eastbaylarry

    That’s the level we are agreeing to. More than enough to ruin the planet if ever used.

    Yes, support this treaty.

  • Aaron Gardner

    It requires us to lay down our defensive capabilities in addition to cutting our offensive ones.

    Why you would, as a conservative, attempt to gain support for a policy that would destroy our missile defense capabilities is beyond me.

  • drohan00

    I have read reports of this, but I have been led to believe that SDI is not a part of this treaty.

    If they are… Which after reading the treaty document, they are not, I don’t think we should oppose it.

    Nothing regarding SDI is in the START treaty.

    Face it, Obama will try to gut SDI anyway. But a new president will not be constrained by this treaty in any way, shape, or form, as I read it.

  • leftylurker

    I think missile defense is a no brainer, so I think if it cuts it that’s a deal breaker.

    I have not, and will not likely read the new treaty, but I am inclined to trust people like Baker. What part are you worried about?

  • eastbaylarry

    with Obamas’ policy statement regarding retaliation. Although they are related, they are not the same thing.

    I STRONGLY oppose Obama telling our enemies that we will hestitate to use nukes in response to ANY attack. That’s just plain stupid.

    But we will still have plenty of capacity after this reduction. The question will be will we have the b@lls to use them?

  • reddog53

    But the pathway to it was twisted and weak. The key to negotiation is not only the end result, but what was gained in return. In that sense, this was a weak effort. Other than helping Moscow retire aging platforms, what did we get in return?

    While SDI might not be part of the treaty, it was clearly a precursor, in that Obama removed the installation from Poland in order to achieve this reduction.

    In the meantime, Russia appears to have gained ground on us in the eyes of their citizens and with the Europeans.

  • http://www.hakubi.us/ Neil Stevens

    Why do you feel the need to add that last paragraph if you’re so sure there’s nothing defense-related in the new treaty?

  • Aaron Gardner

    And just because SDI isn’t specifically mentioned in the treaty doesn’t mean that it isn’t affected.

    If you look at the aggregate limits that are being put in place you will see that there are limitations on SLBM. SLBM’s are a integral part of a strategic missile defense.

    This treaty limits our ability to defend ourselves. And for that reason alone, no conservative should be trying to garner support for this treaty.

  • http://www.hakubi.us/ Neil Stevens

    But why don’t we hear from some Secretaries of Defense? What does Cheney think? Rumsfeld?

  • Richard Mullins

    he has been a bit too friendly to those that want to destroy this nation from within. I wonder if he’ll start to come out of seclusion from his institute at Rice University?

  • Tbone

    to work towards their own best interests. The problem is that I also trust the Obama Administration to work towards Russia’s best interests.

  • Aaron Gardner

    Read the dang treaty, it limits the use of SLBM’s, which are a key component of SDI.

    I swear it’s like you all enjoy being lied to so much that you quit using your critical thinking skill all together.

  • JSobieski

    Their reductions are inevitable due to expiring components (if they don’t take down missiles, accidents will become highly likely).

    We are making real concessions.

    Obama’s prancing around like a Peacock at an agreement in which the Russians don’t give up anything is just going to make the Russians that much more secure that we are weak.

  • cactusjack

    EastbayLarry, I don’t know if they are or are not same thing, will let this thread sort it out. But your last question is key particularly because of who is in the White House now. A true story: in 1963, Nikita Krushchev blustered to Dean Rusk (then Secretary of State), “France and England have told us they will not use their nuclear weapons if we move on West Berlin, why should you (US) be so foolish to do so?” – to which Rusk responded, “if that is what you think, Mr Secretary, then you had better believe we Americans may just be damned fool enough to use them.” This was the perfect, considered, correct response of American nuclear policy that has existed through 11 Administrations… until Obama threw it away this week. Sometimes our leaders have to be feared that they really will go to the brink and pull the trigger, a la JFK in the Cuban Missile Crisis, in order to – ironically – keep the peace, not start a war. Obama is millions of light years away from understanding this or even acting as if he does. It makes me miss real Reagan Republicans (endangered) and Cold Warrior Democrats (extinct). (Source: Rusk, D., As I Saw it, Knopf, 1990; conversation with Dean Rusk, 1983, Athens, GA). I’m not a Democrat but Dean Rusk was back then.

  • http://www.hakubi.us/ Neil Stevens

    Trust, but verify.

    We need to drag this thing out in hearings to probe over every line of it.

  • eastbaylarry

    I admit I have not read the treaty.
    That said, reducing the total number of warheads would be expected to reduce submarine missiles also. Is there some specific aspect of this you are concerned about? If so, please illuminate us.

  • JSobieski

    Using Iran to annoy us is going to bite the Russians in the @$$ eventually. The Jihadists/Wahhabis hate the Russians just as much as they hate us, which kind of proves that it isn’t exactly “freedom” or “the American way of life” that they hate.

  • http://www.hakubi.us/ Neil Stevens

    If it was good enough for Reagan against the USSR, it’s good enough for me.

  • http://www.hakubi.us/ Neil Stevens

    Russian society is far freer than an ything you’ll see in the mideast.

    Putin’s a Russian strongman in the model of Peter the Great, not Stalin.

  • drohan00

    We need to make this a long process. Republicans need to ask valid questions on this treaty, and parse every word.

    But this is not the Comprehensive Nuclear Test Ban Treaty. This is not unilateral disarmament. That Barack Obama is a weak president is a no-brainer. But I do not think this treaty is part of that regime. If SDI is compromised at all in the fine print, or some odd annex or protocol, I would oppose it too.

    But after the hearings, and the things are ironed out, I don’t think we should oppose this treaty just to deny the president a treaty.

  • JSobieski

    and we have freedom of a far greater magnitude.

    The Russians are being short sighted in their efforts to raise oil prices and to create problems for us in the Middle East. Make no mistake about it, their actions are purposeful in that regard.

    In contrast, the Chinese just don’t want to interupt their supply lines.

  • JSobieski

    Putin is no Stalin, but he is no Peter the Great either. Russia is and historical has been a unique combination of social pathologies. A tragic nation if you think about—many talented people, and yet the overall system seems to make the least of it.

    No system yet devised by man seems to be as adept at minimizing the aspirations of talented individuals as whatever government resides in Moscow.

    So many talented and well educated scientists, mathematicians, artists, etc. and yet their economy is essentially that of Saudi Arabia, harvesting natural resources out of the earth.

  • http://www.hakubi.us/ Neil Stevens

    They’re more effective a second strike weapon than they are as a first strike weapon.

    They’re the *ultimate* deterrent.

  • Aaron Gardner
  • Richard Mullins

    Having SLBM’s is a good thing because at least send them on a moment’s notice. Getting rid of them is close to surrender to the Russians. I don’t we should be having any treaty that has this in it, so the treaty need to die.

  • rbdwiggins

    Many of which are multi-purpose: Nuclear/Conventional, Strategic/Tactical, Offensive/ Defensive.

    We are voluntarily reducing the number of older nuclear warheads, but we’re not replacing the remaining older weapon systems with the newest technologies. Essentially, we’re just putting band-aids on them and hope they’re reliable.

    Russia needs to destroy nearly half of their nuclear warheads anyway. They’ve become too unstable, unreliable, and they are not safe for storage. We’ve been footing most of the expense for the dismantling of these warheads for many years under a program that began under John Bolton.

    I don’t see where we gain anything at all from this unilateral disarmament treaty. Russia certainly isn’t giving up anything of value.

  • eastbaylarry

    but that does not make this a bad treaty.

    Sure it gives Obama some cred points he doesn’t deserve, but this reduction is still a good thing.

  • http://sandysalt.blogspot.com/ sandysalt

    They won’t work as intended (smaller boom), but accidents are not anymore likely. I used to maintain the nations nuke stockpile, so I know what I am talking about and you don’t. The only portion that becomes more unstable is the HE and that is refurbed before it becomes a problem. We work very hard to maintain the stockpile at max readiness and we would love to have a new warhead, but we can make due for a number of years yet and reducing the number a small amount is only going to help not hurt this. We have already tied our hands behind our back, so this treaty makes very little difference.

  • E Pluribus Unum

    First, you as a government do not make good-faith deals with untrustworthy parties. Period.

    Second, you as a citizenry do not support foreign-policy deals made on your behalf by appeasing, anti-American fecal-heads.

  • http://www.hakubi.us/ Neil Stevens

    Either you’re submitting, or you’re not.

    Russia has freedom not to submit to Islam. They get attacked.

    Same with us.

    Same with Spain.

    Same with Israel.

    Same with the UK.

  • http://www.hakubi.us/ Neil Stevens

    You just have to be very careful and cover your bases.

    I’m not saying I’m in favor of the treaty. I’m just saying I could be if it’s demonstrated it’s good.

  • drohan00

    E Pluibus Unum,

    I agree with you probably 90-95 percent of the time. Your commentary on this site is welcome and thoughtful. But I don’t think you are right in this case.

    We cannot as a nation shirk from our duty to lead the world on nuclear policy. We should link our support of this treaty to strong trust but verify positions, which are in the treaty.

    I don’t think the SLBM issue is really that affected here. Our capabilities for a complete deterrent is still there. We are just agreeing to an international framework, which if the Administration determines is being breached, can withdraw.

    Yes, the Russians are liars and cheats. They have always been. But Reagan and GHW Bush recognized the need for Arms frameworks. I think we need to step back and realize that this is not capitulation and understand that we need to take a leadership role in this vital area of national security.

  • http://www.hakubi.us/ Neil Stevens

    If Russia isn’t giving anything up, then it’s not a reduction.

    Further, a treaty is only good if both sides gain. If Russia gave up nothing, then we don’t gain, and it’s pretty much by definition a bad, one-sided treaty.

  • drohan00

    I was unable to find anything. I would like Cheney and Rumsfeld to make commentary on this treaty.

    Although, Dick Cheney was Secretary of Defense when START I was approved by a large majority of the Senate.

  • Aaron Gardner

    I don?t think we should oppose this treaty just to deny the president a treaty.

    Nobody in this thread is arguing that point. We are trying to inform you that your reading is incorrect and that their will be a measurable impact on SDI.

    You don’t want to hear that though, so you throw up this silly strawman just so I can have the pleasure of burning it down to ashes.

    Thanks.

  • drohan00

    His nuclear response policy is stupid. It is of the same ilk as Dean Acheson saying the Korea was outside the US security blanket in 1949-1950.

    But that is NOT what this treaty is about.

  • eastbaylarry

    is totally stupid. In that, I think, we can agree. But that is NOT in the treaty. That was just the Big ‘O’ mouthing off for his supporters. That statement deserves all the condemnation we can give it.

    If you show the bullies of the world that you are weak and/or scared, they definitely WILL continue to escalate the bullying.

    I remember first hand the Cuban Missile Crisis. I remember the ‘duck and cover’ drills when I was in school. Even then I knew that any country who attacked us would be wiped out because America was way too strong to be defeated in a single stroke and We Will Retaliate!

    That’s what Obama threw away. But not with this treaty. His statement was a freebie to all the bullies of the worlld.

  • eastbaylarry

    Yes, the subs are harder to hit with a massive nuclear ‘first strike’ and therefore make a better ‘second strike’ weapon.
    But is that the scenario we’re likely to face? And, if so, will there NOT be enough remaining of our 1500 warheads to assure the destruction of the attacker, (and most of the planet)?

    Even Reagan was in favor of reducing our nuke counts, (by about the same percentage BTW). Let’s not let our response to this treaty be based upon emotions and the Cold War mindset.

  • JSobieski

    which was the point I was making.

    The Russians have a BIG demographic problem on this issue, and have joined the US in playing checkers against the Persian chess masters.

  • The_Rebel

    where they will need 67 votes to approve this treaty. That means 8 Republicans will need to vote with all of the Dems. Not saying it can’t be done, especially given the usual suspects like the Maine twins, Lugar, and a few others.

    But any Republicans who vote for this treaty had better watch their backs if they are running for re-election this year.

  • http://www.hakubi.us/ Neil Stevens

    I just think that we shouldn’t dismiss the need for a deterrent.

    Don’t fight the last war. Even if our current war has limited use for a strategic nuclear deterrent, our next one might.

  • JSobieski

    it is about the signals you send to enemies, rivals, and nations considering a more opportunistic stance.

    If nations like Russian, China, Iran, et al. are convinced that we are not serious in our thinking, there will be negative ramifications.

  • JSobieski

    there is a reason it took Nixon to go to China and Reagan to go to the USSR.

    In each case, the public had confidence that our interests were being look out after.

    Obama, by definition, is someone who is not going to successfully extract concessions out of enemies or rivals. His framework of blame America first and the Western World second makes effective negotiation impossible. In Russia, Obama is welcomed in the way that one welcomes a clown to a child’s birthday party.

    The Russians are not like Obama, they will not engage in treaties unless the US actually makes concessions, and the price incurred by Russia is de minimis.

  • http://www.hakubi.us/ Neil Stevens

    We have to be *more* careful with Obama’s treaty than we were with Bush’s, just as we’d have to be more careful with a Carter move than with one of Reagan’s.

    It’s not impossible though. I just have an open mind on it, as obnoxious as that may sound. :-)

  • JSobieski

    The persistent desire to unilaterally degrade one’s own country and that of our allies cannot avoid impacting the result of any negotiations.

  • JSobieski

    nt

  • eastbaylarry
  • Xasteius
  • rbdwiggins

    and Iran serves no further useful purpose, Russia will just knock the table over…

    Obama has already signaled that he will be a good little dhimmi and pay the pittance.

  • penguin2

    My understanding is that any treaty the President of the United States signs, must be ratified by 2/3 of the Senate. That would be the 67 votes. If the Senate does not ratify by 67 votes, the signature of the President does not bind us to the treaty.

    Probably the Constitutional scholars can weigh in on this.

  • rbdwiggins
  • JSobieski

    If so, your understanding is incorrect.

    If not, we get to the real question of the difference between a “treaty” and an “agreement”

  • Aaron Gardner

    I think that pretty much proves that drohan00 and eastbaylarry are incorrect in their assessment of this treaty.

    Imploring conservatives to support this treaty is asinine.

  • http://sandysalt.blogspot.com/ sandysalt

    I find this a very interesting concept, but do we really need to use the SSGN’s as arsenal ship’s for the surface fleet radars. The Intercept system only works when there is a radar available, so losing an capability that we don’t have and really don’t need is somewhat reasonable. The Russians have played this game for years, cut the numbers and systems that either they can’t maintain or don’t have. Sub based interceptors is a capability we don’t have and is very similar to the ABN systems that we gave up a long time ago because we didn’t have it and didn’t think it was worth fighting over since it required blowing up nukes over our own cities. The Russians tried to say SDI was a deal breaker, but we are still at the table now aren’t we?

  • Aaron Gardner

    Article V Sec 3 of the treaty states:

    Each Party shall not convert and shall not use ICBM launchers and SLBM launchers for placement of missile defense interceptors therein.

    You can read it here

  • E Pluribus Unum

    Require is to give away Eastern Europe to Russia?

    We are the biggest dog on this rock called Earth. By far. We are also the most fair and compassionate of any world leader ever. we are the most humanitarian, the most self-conscious, the most fearful of crushing the small countries of everybody who ever existed.

    Russia is the exact opposite, in every measurable way. To be the world leader in nuclear policy would mean to aim our nukes at Russia and say “STFU”.

    It would mean protecting Eastern Europe, it would mean keeping our boot on the neck of Iran. It would mean bullying NK to oblivion.

    THAT would be effective and responsible world leadership in nuclear policy.

    I repeat, no good-faith deals with untrustworthy partners. I did not say no deals with untrustworthy partners, just no good-faith deals. Verifiability on paper is crap. verifiability with real teeth is a different matter. But Obama’s America-sucks world view is not constituted to negotiate any serious verifiability provisions.

    Therefore, no deals while that piece of crap is president.

  • Aaron Gardner
  • eastbaylarry

    “Each Party shall not convert and shall not use ICBM
    launchers and SLBM launchers for placement of missile defense
    interceptors therein. Each Party further shall not convert
    and shall not use launchers of missile defense interceptors
    for placement of ICBMs and SLBMs therein. This provision
    shall not apply to ICBM launchers that were converted prior to
    signature of this Treaty for placement of missile defense
    interceptors therein.”

    Aaron, this seems to say that existing ICBM launchers cannot be converted to interceptors, correct? So what exactly upsets you about this? Are you aware of some planned conversions that this would block?

  • Xasteius

    that you either disarm completely or you don’t. As much as I don’t believe in weapons, as long as there are bad guys around, I’m getting the biggest and best I can get my hands on.

  • Aaron Gardner

    First I will answer your question, which is meaningless as I will explain later.

    Yes, I am concerned that no further conversions would be allowed under this treaty. This is bad because once the reduction in offensive weapons takes place we will be left with a fleet of subs that can’t be re-purposed for SDI as needed.

    Now, I will explain why that question is meaningless anyway.

    Each Party further shall not convert
    and shall not use launchers of missile defense interceptors
    for placement of ICBMs and SLBMs therein
    .

    So not only are we not allowed to convert SLBM’s for SDI, we are also not allowed to use those that have already been converted.

    This is the last question of yours I will be answering, as you have shown an absolute lack of knowledge on this subject, or the desire to correct that lack of knowledge.

  • drohan00

    “3. Each Party shall not convert and shall not use ICBM
    launchers and SLBM launchers for placement of missile defense
    interceptors therein.”

    Before I would support the measure now, I would want to have that language taken out of the treaty.

    I guess it does concern SDI afterall, which is a major oversight, and something that I neglected to read. I just read the contents of the previous START treaty which leaves SDI intact.

    I was under the impression that SDI was not taken into this treaty and did not read it close enough. If we gave up SDI in eastern Europe, and gave up SDI further at home, we really have lost on this deal and would need a rewrite.

    That said, if they remove that language, I would still support the basic idea of nuclear arms control, and Nuclear non-proliferation. I just don’t see a down side to our participating in Nuclear talks, especially since we and the Russians have such large Nuclear arsenals at our disposal. The thing is, our Nukes are under control, but the Russians aren’t so much. We should sign a START treaty if that means the US will have access to Russian stockpiles, so we can at least see what they have.

  • eastbaylarry

    Like “This provision
    shall not apply to ICBM launchers that were converted prior to
    signature of this Treaty for placement of missile defense
    interceptors therein.?

    Seems to say you are wrong about using already converted interceptors.

  • Aaron Gardner

    Unfortunately I still wouldn’t support this treaty even with the change in language.

    The problems in this treaty go far beyond just SDI being effectively neutered.

    The Heritage Foundation is also reporting that long range conventional missiles are counted under the total for delivery vehicles and their warheads, still conventional, are counted under the total for warheads.

    Sorry, but this is a poorly crafted treaty that gives away the farm.

  • drohan00

    If they protect SDI I would be mollified. I thought the conventional weapons and what is counted or not counted have to go to the bi-lateral commission.

    Which I suppose will be staffed by nasty liberal, one-world government types from the Obama administration on our side; and real-politik powerhouses on the Russian side. And it would be unlike Obama to put someone tough into this weapons regime like Bolton, who would defend our nation. Again, touche.

    And the missile types are all in there too. But I don’t think nuclear arms reductions are a bad thing. Just the more I read into this monstrosity the more I don’t like it. Why can’t we just do START I again? That should be the Republican response to this.

  • drohan00

    I was just trying to support a policy of nuclear arms reduction. And now that I have read the treaty in full, I now know that it is not the same as START I. However, I would support an extension of START I in the future.

    I just feel that we cannot let ourselves be caught looking like automotons that oppose everything the president does just to do so. Now after looking at the agreement, noticing its failures, I oppose those provisions. Just like I opposes the Stimulus, the myriad bailouts, the Healthcare fiasco, the Student loan takeover etc. etc. etc.

    Which I guess is one more reason to oppose the president. I now will never believe the mainstream media again. I got my info from Reuters and the BBC, and they quoted Bakker, Kissinger and Schultz. I trust these men, so I assumed this was the same treaty Reagan and GHW Bush signed onto. This not being the case, I once again defer to your judgment.

  • http://sandysalt.blogspot.com/ sandysalt

    Converting launchers is not that big of a deal because the subs are not very useful for SDI unless they have a radar on the surface, so this is no great loss and a capability we don’t currently have and didn’t really need to develop. As for the ICBM silos that might be a slightly different issue, but it is pretty much the same because our SDI does not currently use converted silos for the interceptors. This would just prevent us from wasting our time trying to convert the missile fields in the Midwest to interceptor fields. The interceptors are smaller and placed near the radars which are not in the Midwest. We are playing the old Russian game of giving up something we don’t have or don’t want to waste money on.

  • Aaron Gardner

    Or, if you really want more reductions than the Moscow Treaty offers, why not use the same rules of applicability at least.

    In the Moscow Treaty of 2002, which is currently in effect, limitations on conventional systems are avoided by restricting its application to the number of operationally deployed strategic nuclear warheads.

    This would make more sense than what we are doing with New START.

  • drohan00
  • drohan00

    I am worried that we need to take a broad-based leadership role in this area. If we don’ t, then proliferation etc. will continue.

    I don’t want to have to rely on treaties for this, but until we have SDI operational in this country, we need something. Maybe, now probably this piece of paper is not what we should do.

    Maybe that is the point of the Moscow treaty. And Maybe Sandysalt is right, and we are tilting at windmills by giving away technologies and other things we don’t need, can’t afford, or won’t build (convert). All of these things need to be fleshed out.

    The one thing that is clear from my vantage-point, is that we need to do something on nuclear arms reductions on a global level. That is not unilateral disarmament, but cooperatively so.

  • Aaron Gardner

    Sorry if I came off a bit harsh, I just really hate strawman arguments, intended or not.

    I understand where you are coming from and agree for the most part.

  • http://sandysalt.blogspot.com/ sandysalt

    This is Obama using smoke and mirrors to get all the Hawks up in arms by using key words and tricky phrases to distract from the fact that his domestic agenda is in the tank. SDI comes in two flavors sea based which uses very capable sea based radars and small interceptor missiles (most successful part of SDI) the other is land based radars and similar missile launchers. The fact that the Russians are agreeing to this is likely to mean their Moscow missile defense system is old and tired and they are willing to let it go. The language is probably in our favor because it prevents them from converting their old ICBM silos into interceptors silos. This is really a bunch of smoke and mirrors. We agreed a long time ago not to developed an anti-ballistic missile system, but we did anyway and the Russians protested the SDI but we went forward anyway. If Obama was truly serious about gutting our defense he would just defund the system and not involve the Russians.

  • drohan00

    So really this is just another diplomatic rearrangement of the Deck Chairs?

    Is this going to effectively monitor and reduce nuclear stockpiles either? Or is it a treaty in the style of many other European treaties and documents? Just something that we pat ourselves on the back for doing, and then nothing really gets done?

    Just wondering, you seem knowledgeable on the topic, and I just wrote the original piece to support nuclear arms control. I hope we can get something done, despite Obama’s excessive posturing.

  • Aaron Gardner

    Sorry, but that doesn’t fit with what I have read. Would you mind citing something other than your opinion on this?

  • http://sandysalt.blogspot.com/ sandysalt

    We are not going to stop proliferation because it is not in the interest of the Russians or the Chinese. They know that we are the biggest target for nut bags and have no problem with NK or Iran having fully operational nuke systems. We are the only ones that are worried about preventing the bad guys from getting nukes. The Russians should be worried as well, but they think that they can get away with because they think the Muslims would never bother them.This is true folly, but they will have to learn that the hard way. I agree that reducing the numbers is a good thing, but we need to be careful we don’t lose a capability such as long range strategic bombing or second strike or for that matter first strike capability. We have amazingly good systems today and we can hold our own with anyone in the world (including the Russians and Chinese), but that is a perishable skill set that we are quickly allowing to decay away.

  • drohan00
  • http://sandysalt.blogspot.com/ sandysalt

    We have as of yet developed submarine based interceptor missiles. The interceptor missiles are are ship SM-3 based and land based rail launchers, none of the interceptors used converted silos. Feel free to read up on the interceptor systems. There is zero effect on the current system under development. The web based stuff I saw referenced on this site says the same thing, but spun it into a loss of capability. We don’t currently have it and I have not seen anywhere that we are trying to develop sub launched interceptors. I also have seen nothing that discusses converting ICBM silos for interceptors. They are having enough problems interfacing the SM-3 type missile for land use, so I doubt they are looking at a totally different system at this point for the land based systems.

  • drohan00

    Maybe that won’t matter to the nutbags. But it just might matter to the people who have to house the nutbags in their country. We need an effective nuclear deterrent. We won the Cold War because of nuclear weapons.

    If we can’t stop proliferation, then we need SDI more than ever. If we can’t stop proliferation, then this treaty is meaningless and whether they vote for it or no, we still lose. That seems a little too nihilistic to me, maybe we need to re-think everything I said in the opening post.

  • rbdwiggins

    that we gave up on sub-based interceptors “a long time ago” because the Aegis Combat System, AN/SPY-3 Radar and SM-3 don’t work.

    We find ourselves making unwarranted concessions at this particular table because President Obama is a fool.

  • http://sandysalt.blogspot.com/ sandysalt

    I love SDI and think it is the greatest thing since sliced bread because it will do the job against a limited number of missiles and warheads the type that would be launched by a rouge nation state. But, the sad news is that the terrorist won’t be using SRBMs or ICBMs. They will be using shipping containers on ships or trucks, which SDI cannot protect us against. We need to be strong against all nation states and eradicate the wackos before they can send a nuclear present our way.

  • http://sandysalt.blogspot.com/ sandysalt

    The submarines do not carry interceptors. The Aegis Class Cruisers and Destroyers and the SM-3 do a wonderful job of blowing stuff up in space. I am not sure what you are trying to say. The subs don’t play a part in this game right now, it is strictly as SWO play ground.

  • Aaron Gardner

    I asked you to cite something other than your opinion and in response you tell me to read up on interceptors without providing a link to where I can do that.

    Sorry, but I think I am going to trust The Heritage Foundation a bit more than some random guy who refuses to cite anything other than his opinion.

  • drohan00
  • http://sandysalt.blogspot.com/ sandysalt

    I think I know what I am talking about, the SSGNs have only been outfitted with Tomahawks to this point and the only other missile system that was under development was a joint Army/Navy missile that has not gotten very far. What do you want me to cite if it doesn’t exist?

  • http://sandysalt.blogspot.com/ sandysalt

    Aaron, you might want to reread that article because it spends a lot of time talking about shipboard missiles and land based missiles, which have zero to do with SLBM or ICBM launchers, so I punt it back to you to cite where it discusses such items. I would agree they are upset with Space Weapons which we are very capable of, but nothing about SLBM or ICBM launchers. This is what I was very specific about talking about. I did not ever bring up the space weapons because this treaty could effect that possibly, but the SDI in reference to SLBM and ICBM launchers is smoke and mirrors.

  • Aaron Gardner

    Can you cite something that contradicts what The Heritage Foundation put out?

    Yes or No.

    Don’t complicate this anymore than it need be.

  • Aaron Gardner

    Granted, Obama already scrapped this, but this treaty would neuter future President’s ability to follow through with such systems.

    This is a loss of a capability, plain and simple. Whether future or present is besides the point. This treaty limits our capability to intercept in the boost/ascent phase.

    I am really not sure why someone who proclaims a love for SDI would so willingly toss out part of the overall system.

  • http://sandysalt.blogspot.com/ sandysalt

    They were not ever going to be submarine based. This was initially a land based system that could be moved to a surface ship. This has zero to do with SLBM of ICBM launchers. Again you fail to make your point. There are capabilities that surface and land based systems that could be effected because of the prohibition on space weapons because some of the intercepts could occur in space. None of this discussion has anything thing to do with converted SLBMs or ICBMs, so I once again put it back in your court.

  • http://sandysalt.blogspot.com/ sandysalt

    The only thing that KEIs had to truly do with submarines is that it used a common type launcher and used their experience from submarine launcher systems, but how is a submarine going to track and attack a missile launch? Submarine radars are crappy at best and are limited in their vertical azimuth to track and attack missiles. That is why we use Aegis class surface ships for this task. Their radars are very capable and can do the job extremely well. Aaron, I appreciate your questioning, but not every thing is correct on the internet.

  • Aaron Gardner
  • http://sandysalt.blogspot.com/ sandysalt

    What you are saying is that some Defense Contractor says that they would like to have this capability, then it makes it so. They have not developed that capability to this point and yes they could, but to what avail if there is no radar to guide the interceptor. I am talking actual capability, not pie in the sky wishful thinking.

  • rbdwiggins

    The missile made its first successful intercept in June 2008. Performance specifications and data are not publicly available.

    The RIM-156B SM-2 Block IV A was canceled in 2001 because it lacked sufficient range.

  • mikerazar
  • Aaron Gardner

    Nice try though.

    BTW, until you actually, you know, cite something … I wouldn’t go around complaining about who I cite for reference.

  • SteveLA

    sandysalt

    I’m in favor of leaving smoking holes in the ground, preferably the capital city where the leadership is, of any country that ever attacks our country with any sort of WMD’s.

    Can we do that now, yes. Can we do that after this arms reduction, yes. Other than making sure MAD is still viable, do nuclear arms reductions really matter?

  • 6eorge Jetson

    There was a time when the most likely instigator of the use of nuclear weapons was the tension between the US & the Soviets. Does anyone here really think that after 60 years of restrained co-existence that this is the greatest threat we face?

    Countries that want to acquire nuclear weapons right now are going ahead and doing so. The most beligerent countries, I might add.

    Whether the US & Russia have 5,000 each or 1,500 each is really just a side-show. Side-show Obama. Wasn’t he a Simpson’s character?

  • JSobieski

    For example, the House of representatives did vote to approve NAFTA

    http://www.highbeam.com/doc/1G1-14656435.html

    NAFTA did not pass the Senate by a 2/3 vote. Only 61 Senators voted to approve NAFTA.

    http://www.senate.gov/legislative/LIS/roll_call_lists/roll_call_vote_cfm.cfm?congress=103&session=1&vote=00395

    The distinction between a “treaty” and an “agreement” that is ratified via the normal statutory process is discussed at the following link:

    http://www.fact-index.com/t/tr/treaty.html

    “Article II, Section 2 of the United States Constitution grants power to the President to make treaties with the “advice and consent” of two thirds of the Senate. This is difference from normal legislation which requires approval by a major of both the Senate and House.

    However, throughout U.S history, the President has also made “international agreements” through congressional-executive agreements that are ratified with only a majority from both houses of Congress, or sole executive agreements made by the President alone. Though the Constitution does not provide for any alternative procedure and although some noted Constitutional scholars, namely Lawrence Tribe, believe that CEA’s are unconstitutional, the Supreme Court has considered these agreements to be valid, and that any disagreements are a political question for the executive and legislative branches to work out amongst themselves.

    In addition, U.S. law distinguishes between self-executing treaties, which do not require additional legislative action and non-self-executing treaties which does require additional legislative action.

    These distinctions of procedure or terminology also do not affect the binding strength of such agreements under international law,

    Nevertheless, they do have major implications under U.S. domestic law. The Supreme Court has ruled that the power to make treaties under the U.S. Constitution is an power separate from the other powers of the Federal government, and hence a treaty can override state law under any circumstances. by contrast, a congressional-executive agreement can only cover matters which the Constitution confers on the Federal government, while an executive agreement can only cover matters within the President’s authority or matters which Congress has delegated authority to the President. In addition, the Supreme Court has also ruled that the United States has the sovereign power to violate treaties, and if a treaty is inconsistent with U.S. law, then domestic law prevails.

    Politically, the ratification process for treaties is different from the process for CEA’s. Whereas a treaties requires a 2/3rd vote of the Senate only, a CEA requires a majority vote of both houses. Which venue is more advantageous for passage depends on the circumstance. In general, arms control agreements are ratified by the treaty mechanism because it is simpler to go through one house of congress than two. At the same time, trade agreements are generally voted on as a CEA because the 2/3 requirement makes it possible for agricultural interests to veto any tariff reduction.”

  • penguin2

    I was correct on the ratification for an international treaty, requiring 2/3 vote of the Senate. The House does not formally vote on ratifying those treaties. As you bring NAFTA into the discussion, my understanding is that it is an agreement. North American Free Trade Agreement. So two different labels and meaning are being applied here. If START is to be a treaty, in the traditional definition, under current U.S. laws I think it would have to be ratified by 2/3 senate vote. Agreements obviously are handled differently, and that is why the House voted on NAFTA.

  • JSobieski

    and what is the basis, if any, in terms of principle?

    Can the President of the US decide to make just about anything an “agreement” instead of a treaty?

  • rbdwiggins

    NAFTA is an “Agreement.” START is a “Treaty.”

    Article II, Section 2, Clause 2

    He shall have power, by and with the advice and consent of the Senate, to make treaties, provided two-thirds of the Senators present concur;

    The House of Representatives was explicitly excluded from the power of making treaties for multiple reasons.

    John Jay, Federalist, no. 64

    The power of making treaties is an important one, especially as it relates to war, peace and commerce; and it should not be delegated but in such mode, and with such precautions, as will afford the highest security, that it will be exercised by men the best qualified for the purpose, and in the manner most conducive to the public good. The convention appears to have been attentive to both these points–they have directed the president to be chosen by select bodies of electors to be deputed by the people for that express purpose; and they have committed the appointment of senators to the state legislatures. This mode has in such cases, vastly the advantage of elections by the people in their collective capacity, where the activity of party zeal taking advantage of the supineness, the ignorance, and the hopes and fears of the unwary and interested, often places men in office by the votes of a small proportion of the electors.

    As the select assemblies for choosing the president, as well as the state legislatures who appoint the senators will in general be composed of the most enlightened and respectable citizens, there is reason to presume that their attention and their votes will be directed to those men only who have become the most distinguished by their abilities and virtue, and in whom the people perceive just grounds for confidence. The constitution manifests very particular attention to this object. By excluding men under thirty five from the first office, and those under thirty from the second, it confines the electors to men of whom the people have had time to form a judgment, and with respect to whom they will not be liable to be deceived by those brilliant appearances of genius and patriotism, which like transient meteors sometimes mislead as well as dazzle. If the observation be well founded, that wise kings will always be served by able ministers, it is fair to argue that as an assembly of select electors possess in a greater degree than kings, the means of extensive and accurate information relative to men and characters, so will their appointments bear at least equal marks of discretion and discernment. The inference which naturally results from these considerations is this, that the president and senators so chosen will always be of the number of those who best understand our national interests, whether considered in relation to the several states or to foreign nations, who are best able to promote those interests, and whose reputation for integrity inspires and merits confidence. With such men the power of making treaties may be safely lodged.

    (Snip)

    But to this plan as to most others that have ever appeared, objections are contrived and urged.

    Some are displeased with it, not on account of any errors or defects in it, but because as the treaties when made are to have the force of laws, they should be made only by men invested with legislative authority. These gentlemen seem not to consider that the judgments of our courts, and the commissions constitutionally given by our governor, are as valid and as binding on all persons whom they concern, as the laws passed by our legislature are. All constitutional acts of power, whether in the executive or in the judicial departments, have as much legal validity and obligation as if they proceeded from the Legislature, and therefore whatever name be given to the power of making treaties, or however obligatory they may be when made, certain it is that the people may with much propriety commit the power to a distinct body from the legislature, the executive or judicial. It surely does not follow that because they have given the power of making laws to the Legislature, that therefore they should likewise give them power to do every other act of sovereignty by which the citizens are to be bound and affected.

    Others, though content that treaties should be made in the mode proposed, are averse to their being the supreme laws of the land. They insist and profess to believe, that treaties, like acts of assembly, should be repealable at pleasure. This idea seems to be new and peculiar to this country, but new errors as well as new truths often appear. These gentlemen would do well to reflect that a treaty is only another name for a bargain; and that it would be impossible to find a nation who would make any bargain with us, which should be binding on them absolutely, but on us only so long and so far as we may think proper to be bound by it. They who make laws may without doubt amend or repeal them, and it will not be disputed that they who make treaties may alter or cancel them; but still let us not forget that treaties are made not by only one of the contracting parties, but by both, and consequently that as the consent of both was essential to their formation at first, so must it ever afterwards be to alter or cancel them. The proposed Constitution therefore has not in the least extended the obligation of treaties. They are just as binding, and just as far beyond the lawful reach of legislative acts now, as they will be at any future period, or under any form of government.

  • rbdwiggins

    Can the President of the US decide to make just about anything an ?agreement? instead of a treaty?

    The negotiating partners must “agree” to put their faith in a lesser authority.

  • JSobieski

    NAFTA for example is enforced no differently than if it was passed by 2/3 majority in the Senate.

  • rbdwiggins

    If you were the negotiating partner, which would one would you consider to be the lesser?

  • JSobieski

    I don’t think so. I don’t think the Russians are raeding up on the Federalist papers and asking Obama how the treaty will be ratified.

  • rbdwiggins

    The Russians already know the procedural differences.

    The title says it all: Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty

  • Common_Cents

    What else can Maobama do or try to do for him to show he isn’t doing(intentional or inept) whats best for America?

    How anyone can compartmentalize his decisions at this point is beyond me. He must not get credit for anything. We need to read up on Alinsky to get the other teams playbook, its right there in front of us, but I guess we are too busy calling our opponents “nice”.

  • JSobieski

    If that is the test, I would be surprised.

  • JSobieski

    I find that hard to believe.

  • Aaron Gardner

    Since I was talking specifically about SLBM’s being converted not ICBM’s

    Try again.

  • rbdwiggins

    Can’t forget it’s a negotiation between foreign powers. They have just as much say in the wording as we do.

    If I were negotiating with the US, I would demand a “treaty” because of the strict constitutional requirements that bind future administrations and congresses.

  • JSobieski

    There is nothing in US law that prevents Congress from repealing/revoking its treaty obligations through the statutory process—-a treaty is not a Constitutional amendment.

    However, under international law, the US would in that situation be in “breach” (unless the treaty included an opt out option, which many do) and we (unlike the Russians) don’t take that “breach” stuff lightly.