Help me Understand the Latest NY Times / CBS Poll


So the latest NY Times/ CBS, poll, available here, claims the following:

1) Obama’s overall approval is 56% with only 33% disapproving (actually down 2% from last month).

2) Overall, 30% “mostly approve” of the President’s health care plan with only 23% “mostly disapprove.” (Among independents the numbers are 22% support 25% opposed)

Here is what I don’t understand.  According the best information I can find, there are approximately 72 million registered Democrats and 55 million registered Republicans, a 1.31 to 1 ratio.  In their poll, 357 respondents identified themselves as Democrats and 289 as republicans, a 1.24 to 1 ratio - not too far off.

However, they decided to “weight” the poll to 37% Democrat and only 22 % Republican! That’s a 1.68 to 1 ratio of Democrats to Republicans.

That would be the same as assuming there are more than 92 million registered Democrats instead of 72 million! So when you don’t get the results you want, just add 20 million Democrats to the mix?

Then they use that mix to post answers to questions such as “who has better ideas for health care reform?” and “who is trying harder for bipartisanship on health care?”

Assuming that my data about party registration is correct, how can a national poll get away with biasing itself so blatantly? It really bugs me that these numbers will be presented to the American people as a true sample of what all American adults think.


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6 Comments Leave a comment

Remember the purpose!

azaeroprof Friday, September 25th at 1:34AM EDT (link)

The NYT/CBS poll (like many others) does not exist to attempt to accurately represent public opinion. Instead, it exists to help shape public opinion. They know that a paltry few will ever check the internals of the poll, so they can skew the results to fit whatever narrative they are pushing to day!

They could only afford to poll NY Times & CBS workers

6eorge Jetson Friday, September 25th at 2:07AM EDT (link)

Still, 33% of the Lefties still disapproved.


    Click to see enlarged image

 
 

If the poll is not of likely voters and is not weighted...

JadedByPolitics Friday, September 25th at 6:28AM EDT (link)

to the correct amount of 2008 voters then it is CRAP….it is a means to an end to make people believe something that isn’t true. If you want real polls and numbers stick with Rasmussen!

Whoever has his enemy at his mercy &
does not destroy him is his own enemy

For the first time Gallup's approval under Rassmussen

drrhythm Friday, September 25th at 1:32PM EDT (link)

Just to point this out… for the first time since I’ve been paying daily attention to the numbers, Gallup has Obama at a lower approval than Rasmussen - 50% to 51% respectively.

They have been “tied” several times in recent months, but in every case they would rapidly diverge in the next few days. The 50% approval by Gallup ties Obama’s lowest yet, so the question becomes whether Gallup’s numbers will quickly bounce higher or Rassmussen’s will quickly bounce lower (or maybe a little of both).

I’d love to see Gallup’s numbers drop into the 40’s for the first time.

Frankly, as smooth a talker as Obama is, I’m pretty shocked that Gallup has him at his lowest approval ever given that it’ s been Obama 24/7 on TV lately.

NObama Fatigue

Ausonius Friday, September 25th at 1:40PM EDT (link)

As several advertising experts have predicted, NObama’s “media blitz” icould be leading to people tuning him off and even becoming annoyed.

As a Relativist Socialist, NObama believes that lying is necessary to rule.

Fascism/Communism believes that the repetition of the Big Lie is necessary to break people down, and then they will eventually swallow the Big Lie. It is debatable if that ever really worked, since coercion under Fascism/Communism was always there to force people to stay silent at least in the face of the Big Lie.

So far, NObama cannot force us to stay silent!

Ausonius: 310-395 A.D. Teacher, Poet, Consul, General, Farmer.

Personal Tutor to the future St. Paulinus of Nola and to young Gratian, heir to the throne during the turbulent final years of the Western Roman Empire. When his former student Gratian was assassinated, Ausonius threw up his hands and retired to his farm in Gaul. Rome was captured by barbarians 14 years after his death.

 
 
 

Update - NY Times Emailed

drrhythm Friday, September 25th at 3:09PM EDT (link)

Just an FYI - I just emailed my concerns to the managing and executive editors, as well as the public reader contact at the Times.

We’ll see if I hear anything back.

 

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