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Is the Impossible Possible?

By: eburke (Diary)  |  July 7th, 2010 at 10:07 AM  | 

RESIZE: AAA

It has become acceptable except amongst the most ardent of Kool-Aid drinkers in the MainStreamMedia to discuss the possibility that the Republicans might just (gasp) regain control of the House in the Fall elections. However, discussion of actually taking over the Senate in addition to the House has generally been reserved for those of ardent conservative fervor or those under the influence of controlled and banned substances.

Well, perhaps no more. Take a gander at the latest release from Rasmussen in which Rasmussen opines that the impossible might just be…well, possible.

Based on their analysis, Rasmussen currently projects that the Democrat’s safely hold 49 seats and the Grand Old Party has locked down 41. Included in the GOP’s ‘locked down’ 41 are three states where the Democrat incumbent isn’t running (Deleware, Indiana and North Dakota) and one state where Rasmussen has determined that the incumbent, Blanche Lincoln, is toast (cap doffing to the labor unions for wasting $10,000,000 of their member’s money on trying to oust Blanche; nice job, guys!).

Of the 10 ‘toss-up’ races, 6 are seats currently held by Democrats and 4 are held by Republicans. While that doesn’t sound like that big of an advantage for the GOP, of the 10 ‘Toss-up’ seats identified by Rasmussen, the GOP maintains a lead in 6 of them, is tied in 3 others and only trails in 1. And this list of ‘Toss-ups’ doesn’t even include the Nevada race between Harry Reid and Sharron Angle as a ‘toss-up’ even though their own poll taken June 22 has Angle up by 7 (technically w/in the MOE which is probably why they show it as a toss-up but a well-known incumbent who’s at 41% this close to the election whose numbers haven’t budged above that for, well, ever…?)

The delectable, electable 10 according to Rasmussen? Colorado, Florida (thanks for being a team player, Charlie!), Illinois, Missouri, Nevada, North Carolina (Burr is the only Republican Incumbent in the ‘toss-up’ column), Ohio, Pennsylvania, Washington and Wisconsin. Yes, you read those last two correctly: Patty Murray (WA) and Russ Feingold (WI) are currently in ‘toss-up’ races; two races which 6 months ago were not on anybody’s radar screen save a few ‘Pollyanna’ types on the Right who saw a wave election coming almost a year ago.

Chuckie Schumer may just want to hold off on measuring for drapes for that Senate Majority Leader’s office he’s got his eyes on.

Originally posted at 73wire.com

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COMMENTS

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  • teresakoch

    The meltdown/temper tantrum is gonna be EPIC…..

    Of course, the country will still have to endure the lame-duck session, but if Congress and the President know what’s good for them, they won’t try anything. Just remind them all what Senator Nelson had to endure when he went back home after he cast the deciding vote that sent the HCB forward….

  • pilgrim

    Just this morning I updated my battleground diary of June 9th.
    http://www.redstate.com/pilgrim/2010/06/10/the-battleground-contests-for-2010/

    The Governors are looking the most promising. The latest polling makes it possible for 37 instead of my original 33 Republican Governors.

    There are now 9 Senate toss-ups instead of 8, and 36 House toss-ups instead of 35.

  • eburke

    who follows this kind of stuff to the same conclusion I do :-)

    Hadn’t really looked at the governerships, though. Thirty-seven, eh? Wow, with redistricting coming up, That. Is. Huge!

  • Richard Mullins

    No Toss up there. It seems we have a good shot at making it though for the Donks and if we try hard, control of the Senate might be in reach.

  • http://www.examiner.com/x-1597-Charlotte-Law--Politics-Examiner Mike gamecock DeVine

    proof in November and that is just the national level. The Dems are way too alive in NC state politics. Don’t they hold the Governor’s office and at least one house of the legislature?

  • eburke

    Unfortunately, they came out with that poll right *after* I wrote and posted this. (I *hate* it when Scott doesn’t call me and coordinate the release of his polling with my posting schedule. How rude of the guy!)

  • Richard Mullins

    That’s what I meant. Only a few states in the Union are solid Republican and I live in one. I wonder how far down the Donks will go here. Down to just 50 seats in a 150 House? NC is crazy state and I happened to be born in it D.C.(Durning Carter). NC needs it own GWB to kill the Dems chances once for all.

  • IJB
  • redneck_hippie
  • http://www.hakubi.us/ Neil Stevens

    And yeah WV would be a huge help. I think we need at least one more state competitive to have a realistic shot at 51 though. Two or three more would be ideal.

  • http://theminorityreportblog.com Repair_Man_Jack

    Getting it to 50-50 puts the White House signature on every partisan cram-down that makes it through the US Senate.

  • lineholder

    I live in NC. I see and hear evidence to indicate that there are a lot of residents in this state who fall to the side of being conservatives and/or have a genuine loyalty to this country.

    But it’s like watching someone who is angry who has learned to exercise self-control over their anger for the sake of civility, who doesn’t know how to differentiate between random anger and justifiable, righteous anger, much less how to channel their anger in a positive direction.

    If they get to the point of acknowledging that it is righteous anger, then that will show in the elections in November, but at this point, there is no guarantee of that. I wish there was.

    I do genuinely hope you are right.

  • http://www.examiner.com/x-1597-Charlotte-Law--Politics-Examiner Mike gamecock DeVine
  • Richard Mullins

    It doesn’t hurt to say it. I guess we might hold on to all our seats and get a few. If we get AR,CA,DE,ND,NV we might have Doom for the Dems. Doom for the Dems is bad news for Comrade Obama.

  • eburke

    that one as ‘leans Dem’.

    I know that any ‘Pub running in CA is running up a steep hill but Call me Senator Boxer doesn’t seem to be able to break 50% which is not good for an incumbent of her tenure.

    You live out there so, aside from what the pros tell us, do you think CA has turned into enough of an economic basket case that Fiorina has a realistic shot?

  • E Pluribus Unum

    And frankly, with this many in close races, you have to know that in union states, they can successfully steal it.

    I feel very comfortable saying a minimum of 47. Certainly I dream of 51, and it is possible, even plausible. Just looks very tough.

  • Richard Mullins

    It’s their poll and have Burr up bigtime. PPP might be home-grown NC but Rasmussen is more accurate. I know it’s going to get hard for the Dems if they only win 50/150 in the Texas House. We haven’t been able to shrug them off to the point that they are irrelevant in the State house and Senate in the way that they are irrelevant in Statewide elections.

  • http://www.hakubi.us/ Neil Stevens

    If I had to handicap CAsen, I’d say it’s about 55/45 for Carly. It’s winnable and I think we do it.

    That number goes up by the way if Whitman wins has coattails as I expect.

  • itrytobenice

    and take the house, there will be no partisan cram down smurfing.

    BO will be stuck with executive orders and recess appointments. Not that he can’t still screw stuff up with that but…hands tied.

  • eburke

    to the odds of Carly winning not to where the race stands as in percent of the voters in favor of each candidate?

    And I haven’t made my way over there yet (I’m there after I get done penning this) but I’m assuming that you’re thinking Meg’s gonna pull this off (handily?) against the ageless hippy?

  • http://www.hakubi.us/ Neil Stevens

    Right now the polls are the other way around, with Boxer at 55 or so.

    As for Whitman, I think the trends are all in her favor though she, too, is slightly down at the moment.

  • acat

    Imagine how well he’ll do once he has to cast actual votes again…

    Mew

  • Tbone

    No more money for Czars and such. Take the White House budget to landscape maintenance and janitors.

    The whole place is going to have be fumigated in January of 2013 anyway.

  • IJB

    But I think we’ll hold all the others – when all is said and done, OH will fall to the GOP, I think. (Ditto PA, though that actually counts as a pickup.)

    I’m actually not too worried about the other GOP seats – I think we’ll hold NH and MO with relative ease…

  • http://www.hakubi.us/ Neil Stevens

    +5 to +6.

  • eburke
  • Tbone

    I think Boxer is toast.

  • Richard Mullins

    I think that’s the only keeping Crist above water. Other than that, I think that we will win it. FL is a weird state so idiots like Crist survive on stupid people. If all we lose is FL and pick up all the Dem held seats, it’s still doom for the Democrats.

  • http://www.hakubi.us/ Neil Stevens

    The crosstabs for Whitman/Moonbeam made the race look worse for the Dems than the top line indicated.

    I hope the Senate race has similar news.

    Will be posting today at least at UV and at RS if I can get a slot.

  • Richard Mullins

    If Carly wins, we need her to sound the drumbeat against Feinstien in 2012. Getting 2 Republicans in a state like CA will give Leftists a kick in the pants.

  • eburke

    plugged in and heating up. Field is notorious for overstating Dem support whilst understating GOP numbers. If Babs “Call me Senator” Boxer is only up by 3 in a Field poll….well, folks can’t be sleeping real well at the Boxer campaign these nights.

    Next to Harry Reid, I can’t think of any Dem senator I’d rather see in the unemployment line after November than Barbara Boxer. What a sanctimonious, brain-challenged twit.

  • acat

    I’m not clear on what you mean by “the oil spill thing dies”. Do you mean when the relief wells (or other methods) finally stop the leak, or when the skimming operation ends, or when the beaches are finally cleaned?

    At what point does Charlie go underwater?

    (and as for being a weird state, that’s what happens when big percentages of the state are transplanted in…)

    Mew

  • eburke

    tight but I still think Rubio pulls it out.

    Pennsylvania’s shown us what the electorate thinks these days of people who make political moves for their own self-aggrandizement. Charlie is nothing but a ‘what’s in it for me’ politician and Rubio will have *tons* of material to pound that point home (witness the 60 second web ad he just released)

  • Richard Mullins

    Floridians just seems to like Fake Tan people like Charlie. All seems to be doing is playing the anti-drilling thing that permeates Florida. I can’t see how the media hyping up Tarballs on the Bolivar Peninsula and Crystal Beach is going to help them. Tarballs are a way of life on the gulf coast. My guess is Charlie doesn’t want BP to “Plug the hole”.

  • acat

    Assuming the relief wells stay on track for “sometime in August”, the flow from the blown well should be capped by October – but unless the A-Whale and other skimmers can really start sucking up the floating oil in the meantime, there will still be quite an impact from Pensacola all the way down through the elections.

    Charlie may have lucked into the right approach….

    Mew

  • IJB

    They have to start advertising soon in FL – if they do, Rubio can run away with it.

    But if they wait until Sept. to run ads, it’ll be too late, IMO.

  • Richard Mullins

    I think that people are now seeing Charlie Crist as an idiot once again. It looks real doom for Democrats is coming.

  • eburke

    than Charlie “Suntan” Tuna.

    Personally, I agree with Rubio’s decision to harbor his cash. It’s the middle of the freaking summer…everyone’s either at the beach or wondering if there’s going to *be* a beach…he’s got enough ammo to blow Crist’s negatives through the roof with a campaign team that shows that it knows how to message (did you catch the web ad they released yesterday. Wanna bet that you see some/all of that in 30 second spots after Labor Day?)…

    Why would he spend money now when the only people that are paying attention to this are junkies like you and me who already have their minds made up? The people who he needs to reach ain’t gonna start paying attention until after Labor Day, if then.