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The unofficial yard sign poll

Grossly unscientific anecdotal evidence the polls may be off kilter

By: Ed54 (Diary)  |  October 24th, 2008 at 07:09 PM  | 

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For weeks I’ve been noticing something odd: there are literally hundreds of McCain signs and bumper stickers in area near Tampa FL, and hardly an Obama sign or sticker to be found. Recently I’ve been making a game of “count the signs” when I go out on errands. I usually count 10 to 20 McCain signs per trip; rarely do I get 1 or 2 Obama signs.

Of course I live in a strongly conservative suburb, so none of this is surprising. However, it did make me wonder: if the polls show McCain so far behind, shouldn’t there be some leakage of Obama support into McCain strongholds in a battleground state like Florida?

So today I had a business trip into deep Obama territory: downtown Tampa and St Pete. I figured I would see an equally lopsided display of support for Obama.

Imagine my surprise to see that this was not so. There were more Obama signs there than here, but I still had to look pretty hard for them. And I still spotted more McCain stickers and signs.

Does this mean anything? Probably not. It’s certainly grossly unscientific. But it just makes me wonder if the polls really are overstating the state of this race.

So I’m curious: does anyone else in a battleground state take note of this kind of thing? What is the sign-to-sign ratio in Ohio? PA?

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  • bigfoot

    I’ve noticed the same thing here. 2004 Kerry signs and bumperstickers were everywhere. Hardly any this time. I am not sure why. However, if His Highness is so damn popular, why not the signs and bumperstickers.

    I will note that McCain signs are down some, too. This might be explained by the fact that conservatives were not that fired up originally with McCain. However, this doesn’t explain the paucity of Obama signs/stickers

  • bigfoot

    I’ve noticed the same thing here. 2004 Kerry signs and bumperstickers were everywhere. Hardly any this time. I am not sure why. However, if His Highness is so damn popular, why not the signs and bumperstickers.

    I will note that McCain signs are down some, too. This might be explained by the fact that conservatives were not that fired up originally with McCain. However, this doesn’t explain the paucity of Obama signs/stickers

  • acasilaco

    …in Missoula, MT, judging by yard signs. (Don’t worry too much about Montana 3 EVs based on this, though. Missoula is BY FAR the most liberal area for hundreds of miles in any direction.) I just hope he doesn’t run up the margin too much here.

  • Moe_Lane

    …is that signage/bumper stickerage is WAY down in most areas this go-round. Certainly here in MD-07; my neighborhood complex has one sign out. Obama/Biden, but I was too relieved to see that I wasn’t the only person in my town house development who cared about the election to really mind that. :)

  • ww1posterfan

    A month ago there were no signs in my neighborhood in Prince William County- a key battleground county for the state. We put a sign up. In the 4 weeks since, there are 15 more McCain-Palin signs to 2 Obama-Biden signs. Other anecdotal evidence favors McCain, as well, once you are south of the Beltway. Prince William County also has a Republican for our state delegate. He won pretty easily as I recall. We have Rep. as our county supervisor and implemented one of the most stringent illegal immigration initiatives in the country. Voter turn out is key. Period. I’m predicting VA stays red. I’ll be phone banking tomorrow and will provide a report on that.

  • David_Hinz

    and watch for bummer stickers.

    The other day, in a neighborhood I was driving through I counted 13 Obama signs and 0 McCain. But take heart, because that neighborhood was a block away from the University of Michigan in the People’s Socialist Republic of Ann Arbor.

    Moving West out of town the ratio becomes more 2-1 to 3-1 for McCain.

    We probably cannot hold off the voter fraud in Detroit to win this state, but I do NOT believe it will be a blowout… maybe 3-4 points.

  • HairGuy

    is only slightly less red than Utah. My observation is overwhelming McCain signs all along my 15 mile commute to work, including the two in my yard. I’ve actually lost count. I noticed two Obama signs. I’m pretty sure the local city government is having them deported north of Mason-Dixon.

    As for the bumper stickers, about 50 or so McCain, about 100 left over Bush (no joke), and one Obama. On further inspection, the Obama sticker was on a mini-van with Illinois plates. For the record, it was driving very fast NORTH on I-65, politely waving to everyone.

  • mississippiconservative

    I live right outside the capitol of Jackson, MS in Hinds County which is overwhelmingly democrat due to our majority black population. I too have notice the strange lack of Obama signs. I usually go into Jackson on a regular basis and all I see are Roger Wicker signs for Senate and some other lower level offices. I have to count only seen 2 Obama signs in Jackson and only 1 in Clinton, where I live…and that happens to be on my street. McCain signs on the other hand I have seen plenty of. But to note, I have seen a fair amount of Obama bumper stickers but even with that, I have seen more McCain/Palin stickers. I think there are gonna be some upset people come November 4th and its not going to be Republicans. I know, I know, signs are not any scientific indication, but when a city that is 80% black and you don’t see any Obama signs…that tells me this great excitement that he’s generated may be only an excitement by the media.

  • maverick4prez

    I’m really not in the mood for a brick in the window, fire bomb in the yard, KKK spray painted on the side of my house, or flowers trampled to dirt.

  • ILLINOIS_CONSERV

    And all the other red states. Illinois will be blue, obviously. We are the sad home of the chosen one. Bad enough we have cold winters, hot summers and a government that has set the gold standard for corruption. But now we are saddled with the dubious distinction of being home to BHO. How did we get so lucky? We already have an idiot Mayor in Chicago, a governor who is being investigated by the feds (remember Tony Rezko?) and a former terrorist who now that he is done trying to bomb federal buildings has reinvented himself as an educator. Not to mention a gaggle of Reverends (Wright, Pfleger, Meeks, Jackson) that certainly don’t resemble the Reverends I knew growing up in a Christian home. God help us all.

  • Stuckinmichigan

    And the interesting thing I have seen is that quite a few houses have signs for Mark Schauer, and the ballot issues, but none for Obama. These people are obviously voting Democrats who took the time to go get signs, but why not an Obama sign?

    As far as the overall count. I would say it’s fairly close in my town of Grand Ledge. When you drive by the business area McCain outnumbers Obama 50 to 1 and that is no exaggeration. I have spotted a few of the Nobama stickers and just a couple McCain stickers,

    When you drive down the main road which is Saginaw Highway you go thru a bad area and then come up on MSU. Even down that way the McCain signs are equal to Obama, which really suprises me.

    I know signs and stickers dont mean squat, but if this is a revolution I dont see any proof. Kerry and Gore signs were everywhere during that time, and while anecdotal, you have to at least wonder what’s up. Even my Dad who lives in an all black neignborhood in Flint says he has seen just a couple Obama signs.

  • Moe_Lane

  • izoneguy

    Jr. Brown – one of my favorites

  • GregInFla

    This was referenced in another thread I saw but cannot remember which one. Excellent reading about polling. Kudos to that diarist.

  • Strelnikov

    Here in Ohio’s capital I saw very early on a good number of Big Brobama signs, with the rather annoying phrase “Another UA Citizen for OBAMA!” (UA = Upper Arlington)

    These are found in front houses costing $250,000 +. To which I always think: when your taxes go up, and/or when you get sacked by a company downsizing due to Dem policies, remember what you wished for!

    To be sure, in the Sarah Palin era, more McCain signs have begun to sprout. And several of my 8th Graders came in yesterday with homemade McCain/Palin book covers!

    I mentioned this some weeks ago: in a less wealthy suburb of Columbus, there were hardly any yard signs at all. A few for local Republicans, otherwise nary a blip for Big Brobama, and this was an area where he supposedly should be attracting people with his give-aways and class warfare. To be sure, there was only one McCain sign, but I suspect people there – unlike the well-to-do people for Obama in the other suburb – will be voting for McCain.

    Fascinating: class-warfare agitprop attracting the rich! As if they are masochistic and want to be taught a lesson!

  • Ed54

    Lotta people seeing the same thing? Wonder if we may be onto something here. Does anyone have information suggesting a more conventional explanation, like say the Obama campaign put less effort and resources into signs and stickers than the McCain campaign did?

  • ETCartman

    Subdivision here in South Flori-duh that is probably 8-1 Liberal (not just Democrat) to clear thinking Americans regardless of their party affiliation.

    Why such a huge ratio of the entitlement mentality? Easy. Retirement community – an extremely large one too.

    The condo commandos have spoken and “thou shalt have neither political or other signs before them”.

    They don’t have any control over what you put on your car.

    I’ve seen maybe 4 or 5 cars with O-Bot stickers and about 10 with McCain/Palin. There’s several thousand condos and cars in our subdivision.

    Last week when I went to play golf, I parked next to a guy (also a condo owner here – 75 years old, ex-Navy) who had a PALIN McCain sticker ! I offered to and did paid the guy’s greens fee and we had a great time out there. ‘Gems in a mud puddle’ is what he called the two of us.

    :-)

    Cheers !

  • Moe_Lane

    …from the campaigns has been harder than it has been, particularly in areas where it’s not going to matter anyway.