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EDITOR OF REDSTATE

The Vice Presidential Nominee

By: Erick Erickson (Diary)  |  August 20th, 2008 at 10:14 AM  | 

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Image descriptionI’m going to call it.

Barack Obama’s Vice Presidential nominee will be Tim Kaine, Governor of the Commonwealth of Virginia.

I’m perfectly open to being wrong, but I do not think I am.

Both Obama and McCain really need someone with executive experience. That rules out Joe Biden, who was raised by the wolves in the Senate.

That leaves Evan Bayh, Tim Kaine, and wild card Kathleen Sebelius.

It won’t be Sebelius because the nation is not ready for both a black man and white woman on one ticket. Likewise, it’d be a slight to Hillary Clinton. And it’d start the abortion conversation all over again.

It won’t be Bayh because Obama cannot compete in Indiana, Bayh never helped Democrats win Indiana when he was governor, and Bayh backed Hillary Clinton. Disloyalty will cause Bayh problems.

Likewise, as with Joe Biden, picking Bayh will highlight Obama’s inexperience. In fact, Bayh is too stark a contrast from Obama, even more so than Biden. And both open Obama to more comparisons with George W. Bush — needing gravitas.

That leaves Tim Kaine.

Kaine is a governor so Obama gets the perception of experience.

Kaine is from a potential swing state, which helps Obama potentially on that front.

Kaine also won’t show up Obama. With Biden or Bayh, Obama would stand in their shadow. Not so with Kaine. Kaine makes Obama look like a pro.

Again, I could be wrong. But I think I’m right.

UPDATE: Of course, if it is not Kaine, it will be Bayh.

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COMMENTS

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  • CrabCakes

    If Obama can swing VA, he can lose Ohio, New Mexico, Colorado, and Nevada without losing the Presidency. The RCP average has Obama behind in VA by just over half a point. I’m not a big believer in running mates being able to deliver states, but surely they’re worth three quarters of a point.

  • olderthangandalf

    but I think you are wrong.

    Kaine would be a bad choice. Kaine has little experience, and even that has been undistinguished. He’s been a mediocre governor of a medium sized state for not very long, and has no accomplishments to speak of. If that sounds like someone else you are thinking of, that’s exactly the problem, and why Obama would be foolish to pick him.

    Beyond that, Obama thinks he does not need administrative experience. He’s run, to his credit, a well organized campaign, and seems pretty confident he’s got the chops to run an efficient administration.

    What he needs is foreign policy expertise and a little borrowed gravitas.

    I’m betting Biden, but I’m not at all confident about it.

    Obama, unlike McCain, is in the standard zone for VP picks. So long as he doesn’t totally muck it up, it won’t be decisive in the campaign. McCain’s age and presumptive one term status makes the pick much more important for him, and the latent discord among the interest groups in the GOP will make threading the needle with a perfect pick a lot harder.

  • GOPUGA

    I think Obama will choose him……

    I think McCain will choose safely and go with Pawlenty

  • Tim_Schieferecke

    She won’t help him, but when they lose badly the D brand in Kansas will be substantially weakened. She’s a real piece of work.

  • streiff

    in this article of course it is Biden, the son of a Welsh coal miner, making the statement.

  • Slightly_Askew

    Some of those who supported Keyes or McCain only got fully behind Bush once he added some experience to his team with his Cheney pick. Obama will do the same with Bayh, and somewhat pacify the Clinton supporters.

    It worked once, it can work again. Besides, I think that it is nearly Bayh’s time for the big chair, and VP slot will help him slide into that.

    I’m not sure what being the losing VP candidate does to future potential, though. He may prefer to go it alone in 2012 and not have to carry Obama baggage into it ala Al Gore (assuming Obama wins 2008).

  • Brandozilla

    Sebelius is the best pick for us. She won’t carry Kansas or help anywhere.

  • Tim_Schieferecke

    That would be good.

  • CrabCakes

    I’m not hoping for Sebelius (I like Kaine), but I think she would boost Obama by a few points among women nationwide.

    I think the worst choice would be Biden. The question would be when, not if, he says something absolutely ridiculous/offensive in front of multiple journalists/cameramen.

  • Mose

    Biden has decent foreign policy chops, but he doesn’t help Obama’s math and his selection essentially highlights Obama’s thin resume. He’s also gaffe-prone (e.g. Obama is “clean”, “you cannot go to a 7-Eleven or a Dunkin? Donuts unless you have a slight Indian accent”, etc.), has a hard time staying on message, and has a LONG record of senate votes (and questionable statements) ripe for exploitation. Thus, grading from Obama’s perspective, I’d give him no better than a 5, more like a 4, on a ten point scale.

    Kaine is my dream pick for Obama – I honestly don’t think he could make a worse pick among his plausible choices. Talk about a ticket that would be lighter than air – you’d have to tie them down so they didn’t float away. Also, Kaine hasn’t been particularly impressive as governor of Virginia – his transportation initiatives have gone nowhere. I don’t think he would move the numbers in Virginia at all (once the initial bump faded out). He also is completely unknown nationally. I could be wrong, but that’s how I see it. I give him a 2.

    Sebelius is also not a good pick for Obama. Given Obama’s recent difficulties over his vote against the so-called “born-alive” bill in Illinois (functionally identical to a bill that passed the U.S. senate 99-0), I don’t think he wants someone who is just as far to the left on the issue of abortion. It also makes his ticket the all-time p.c. ticket, and might annoy Hillary supports to boot by putting another woman on the ticket. She won’t help in Kansas, and also is unknown nationally. I give her a 3.

    I’d give Bayh an 8. His selection would cause mild grumbling on the left, but not much, and he can only help with the center. He is a bit bland, but the Obama ticket isn’t lacking for charisma. It needs a little gravity, some foreign policy chops, and to reassure the center. I think Bayh does all that. His resume is heavy with meaningful experience (winner of 5 statewide elections in Indiana – thoroughly vetted), but he wouldn’t overshadow the top of the ticket (here his blandness is a virtue). He would make things interesting in IN, and would be an effective surrogate in places like Iowa, Ohio and Missouri. From Obama’s perspective, I can’t see why Bayh isn’t the hands down pick.

  • kchand

    Yup, the bandito from New Mexico. (He does look like one these days.)

    Mucho experience (including foreign) Governor and LOWERED taxes, Latino, and the Clintons threw him under the bus.

  • bk

    Might Hillary supporters be miffed if Obama in effect says HRC isn’t the best woman for the VP slot?

  • CrabCakes

    The vast majority of folks, women and men alike, don’t get so invested in a candidate that they would hold a grudge against someone for slighting their favorite and going with someone else. The PUMA voters are wackos, and they might whine about Hillary being “insulted.” I don’t see them making up a significant chunk of the electorate, though.

    Women who reside in the middle of the political spectrum (and don’t have a weird obsession with Hillary) would likely be more inclined to vote for Obama than they would otherwise. I don’t see it making more than a 2 point difference nationwide, but given how close the last few elections have been, 2 points can be a lot.

    All that said: Yes, we Kaine!

  • olderthangandalf

    Next time through the press mosh pit, he dialed it back and said that he hadn’t talked with anyone in the Obama campaign about who the pick was going to be. Since then, he’s refused to talk about it with the press. To me, that says that Biden was being cute and it’s too early to rule him out.

  • Limited_Government

    For a self-confessed political junkie, I will admit to knowing next to nothing about Gov. Kaine.

    I think Obama is in a box. IMHO, the only choice that helps his candidacy is Hillary.

  • mikewas

    Yeah, this is my pick, too:
    http://twitter.com/MikeWas/statuses/892488169

  • wennejunk

    Never underestimate their ability to do something so incredibly wrong for their campaign.

    I predict that either:

    a) they will pick the absolute best candidate to help him win and then fumble the execution to the point that everyone gets tendinitis from all the finger pointing after the loss

    -or-

    2) Being Liberals; idealistic; out of touch; convinced they know what America wants and needs (even if it contradicts directly what America says it wants and needs)…being all these things, it is possible they will pick the absolute worst VP candidate they could field and then be surprised when shutout at the end, with ‘racism’ being the operative word to explain the loss.

    Don’t laugh. They already picked/ coronated Obama (black, good looking, good talker, empty suit) and to me he was a weaker candidate than HRC.

  • FWGuy

    Looks like you are right on the money !!

    From the Politico:
    After a day of campaigning in Virginia, Barack Obama is overnighting in Richmond tonight as the guest of Gov. Tim Kaine, Politico has learned from Old Dominion sources.

    So, is it a consolation prize for the young veep hopeful, or a warmup act for one of the biggest buddy acts in presidential history?

    According to Newsweek’s Howard Fineman, the prospects will know soon: They’ve been asked where they can be reached tomorrow afternoon.

    With the political press corps on hair-trigger alert, Bill Burton, the Obama campaign’s puckish national press secretary, sent reporters an e-mail Wednesday morning with the subject line, “Vice Presidential …”

  • The_Rebel

    It will be Sam Nunn. He brings foreign policy experience and a chance to pick up Georgia, and possibly other southern states. But I say he has no chance to pick up Georgia or any southern states.

    Even if Kaine brought him the state of Virginia, it will not offset potential losses in Michigan and Pennsylvania. Especially in Michigan if Romney is the VP pick.

    Time will tell.

  • kingnavland

    He won’t be in Virginia for 2 days this close to the convention and not pick Kaine, who has been one of his biggest supporters from the beginning.

  • chicagomarylander

    …and that I think Kaine is Obama’s best pick. I think he’s a mediocrity myself, but there’s no question that (what with the burgeoning blue state population in Northern Virginia) he puts his home state in serious jeopardy for the GOP. Bah.

  • septembergurl

    the fallback choice, not bad but not especially good, either.

    “NashvillePost.com has learned that senior campaign officials from the Barack Obama Presidential campaign are being dispatched from various locations around the country and are converging in Indianapolis for a “major event” to take place on Saturday.

    Saturday is the same day that Obama is expected to make his first public appearance with his yet to be announced vice presidential running mate. Indiana is the home state of Democratic Senator Evan Bayh, widely considered to be on the short list of Democratic vice presidential contenders.

    Sources in Denver, the site of next week’s Democratic National Convention, say that individuals responsible for Obama’s major public appearances have been pulled out of the city and are heading east towards Indiana.”

    My prediction, Bayh will not carry his own state for the Dems, any more than John Edwards did in 2004.

  • worden55

    I agree, I think it is Kaine too. Obama is a ego-maniac, he is not going to pick someone who will make him look stupid and inexperienced. Biden already said in many statements Obama is too inexperienced in foriegn policy, and the there is no place for on the job training. Bayh is a dud, and won’t deliver Indiana, too many people that cling to their bibles and guns there. Clinton… Obama wouldn’t be able to out talk the old man. That leaves Kaine! He makes Obama look like he is really qualified to be president.

  • KJGL

    imo it will be Bayh. Obama’s own lack of experience has already presented a problem–his poll numbers are in stasis, begging the question of whether or not he’s hit his high water mark. I don’t see how he can risk compounding the problem he’s already got by choosing a veep with an amount of national experience that together would give this team six years’ national experience total.

    I do agree he’d have a problem with Clinton, Gore, or Biden underscoring the impression that a very inexperienced guy is running for president and needs a seasoned veteran to validate him. plus, Gore doesn’t really change the electoral map–Obama would still win CA and NY, and he’d still lose Tennessee. and if anything, whatever rust belt support Gore enjoyed in 2000 probably isn’t very impressed with his Academy Award or his Nobel Prize unless they somehow convert to jobs. plus, returning to a political setting would also oblige Gore to re-confront his fabulist claims to having invented the internet, inspired Erich Segal to write Love Story, and, of course, would cause people to dust off all the old jokes about Al switching over his wardrobe to earth tones.

    so I think Bayh. he’s got the experience but not a high public profile that will overshadow Obama’s. aside from the recent revelations about a few boards his wife sits on (and can easily resign) he’s got no baggage. but Bayh won’t add anything to the ticket, either, and I think they’ll lose in November.

    With a war on two fronts, Iran pursuing the development of nukes, Russian trying to flex its muscle, and Obama scarcely able to voice a foreign policy position without having to clarify it two or three times, he’s an Election Day loser no matter who he chooses, because it won’t be his veep pick who’d end up in the face to face position with Ahmadinejad, Putin, et al.