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EDITOR OF REDSTATE

The McCain Veep Pick

By: Erick Erickson (Diary)  |  August 28th, 2008 at 05:05 PM  | 

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I’ve said for months it was going to be Tim Pawlenty. It is the most obvious choice, though I think Eric Cantor would be the more exciting pick. I am confident, based on conversations, that the top three picks are Cantor, Pawlenty, and Romney.

Who do you think it is?


Who Will It Be?
Eric Cantor
Tim Pawlenty
Mitt Romney
  
Free polls from Pollhost.com

BTW: It does look like it is Pawlenty. I expect I won’t have to admit to Rebecca Roberts on XM’s POTUS 08 that I was wrong. For months she’s been asking me and for months I’ve been saying Pawlenty.

Why does it look like Pawlenty? Well, about an hour after McCain’s campaign confirmed they’d made the pick, Pawlenty started canceling events, even some he had confirmed this morning.

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  • Swamp_Yankee

    I tend to agree with you. There’s been a lot of hyperventilating over unrealistic choices. So I alwaysthought it was either TP or MR

    But it seems like both Pawelnty and Romney are getting signals, which is making think maybe McCain is throwing us all of the scent and just trying to stir things up. Pawlenty clears schedule. McCain makes first post convention appearence in Michigan. Huh.

  • wsjreader

    Why Cantor would be ‘exciting’? I find this claim is pretty bizarre. An orthodox conservative congressman with no name recognition, exciting? Nancy Pelosi might be as exciting as Cantor… Just saying…

  • aaronbg

    n/t

  • wsjreader

    Based on the same logic, should Obama pick Nancy Pelosi? An exciting far left feminist?

  • aaronbg

    n/t

  • Brad_Smith

    Every thing you need to know about government and politics you can learn from the old BBC comedy, “Yes, Minister.”

    And there we learn that when you have no breaking news, then you wear a modern suit, high-tech furniture, and energizing wallpaper – “everything to disguise the absence of anything new.” (By the way, think the Obama campaign). But if you’ve got bold news, then you wear a dark suit, surround yourself with the reassuring symbolism of oak paneling, old volumes, and 19th century portraits.

    In the last week McCain has surrounded himself with the equivalent of high tech furniture, a modern suit, and energizing wall paper – it’s Lieberman; no wait, it’s Kay Bailey Hutchinson; now it’s Cantor; it’s top secret!

    That suggests that the real choice is the boring but logical choice – unexciting, no buzz, but no damage, broadly acceptable, compliments the candidate, maybe puts a big state in play – and that’s Pawlenty.

    Anyway you cut it, the McCain camp has done a good job in building some suspense and keeping some attention on it during the Democratic Convention.

  • SirGladiator

    I agree completely it definitely looks that way. Pawlenty is a great Governor, a fantastic Christian Conservative, and would make an excellent Vice President, or President. If McCain were running for President of Minnesota, this would be an awesome pick. Since he’s running in other states also, it would’ve been smart to go after the Independents and Hillary supporting Democrats by picking a woman, but apparently his advisors couldnt find a single woman they liked, in all 50 states, not one. Sadly, that says a lot about his advisors, and McCain deserves better than people like that working for him. Its a shame he couldnt rise above their failings and pick one anyway, he’s throwing away SO many votes by not picking a woman.

  • GOPUGA

    I bet the media is loving this.

  • Joe_Schmo

    An interesting thought is that Cantor is in Denver surrounded by tons of media. They’ll be wrapping up coverage of the DNC tomorrow morning…

  • aaronbg

    n/t

  • Strelnikov

    Which Republican lady would you have liked? People here have talked about Sarah Palin…

    When we moved to Columbus last year, my wife asked a colleague: “People from Cleveland are Clevelanders, and people from Toledo, are Toledoans: What do you call somebody from Columbus?” There was a long confused pause, and then the lady said brightly:

    “Buckeyes!”

  • Fidelis_Bozo

    Instead of “who will it be?”, why not run a poll asking, who should it be?

    It should be an exciting pick and an unprecedented pick to counter the Dem’s, first black candidate.
    It should be, Eric Cantor, who would be the first Jew on a Republican ticket, that too from a red state.
    No, I am not Jewish. Although, I confess, I do have a soft spot for the good people.

  • QueenOfCups

    in case the winner cannot fulfill his/her obligations?

    You know McCain will end up outliving all of them!

  • CK_MacLeod

    …is who got Ms Congeniality.

    Now, remember, it’s not unprecedented for Miss Congeniality also to win the top prize!

    Def not Huckabee for that one.

  • Flagstaff

    I think Romney would be the best VP but there seem to be anti-Romney sentiment that defies logic, Cantor has some obvious positives and obvious negatives, and Pawlenty was unknown before McCain started looking for a VP.

    I say Pawlenty, as I said it would be Bill Richardson for the ‘Crats. Not because I think he’s best, just because I think that’s what McCain will do (out of these three). He’s probably never criticized McCain’s immigration policy.

    BTW, McCain said last week he’d already made up his mind and would announce tonight.

  • IJB

    It should be John Kasich.

    If not him, then Fred Thompson.

    If not him, then Eric Cantor (or someone like John Shadegg).

    Then, if not any of these, I’ll go with Gen. Petraeus (or possible ret. Gen. Tommy Franks).

    (Just, please, no Senators Sen. McCain!!)

    But that’s just me…

  • Swamp_Yankee

    Could read this both ways. I tend to think it leans against TP as Veep, but it could be unconventional campaign

    On meet the press Sunday:

    http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/3898804/

  • Swamp_Yankee

    Could read this both ways. I tend to think it leans against TP as Veep, but it could be unconventional campaign

    On meet the press Sunday:

    http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/3898804/

  • pilgrim

    I wrote a blog about Pawlenty for VP, Fishin’ for Electoral Votes in ’08

    There were 41 comments including multiple comments by Adam C. I do not see your comments anywhere.

    It is interesting though to see if what people posted then is the same thing they would post today.

  • Adam_C

    Here are the things that come to mind:

    Positives:
    1) Pro-life evangelical
    2) Won twice in one of the most progressive states in the country (combined with #1 quite a feat)
    3) 6 years of executive experience
    4) Coined term “Sam’s Club Republican” to describe future of GOP
    5) Served as House Majority Leader in MN House, so he has legislative and executive experience
    6) No DC ties; outsider (contrast with Biden)
    7) “Pawlenty campaigned on a pledge not to raise taxes to balance the state’s budget deficit, requiring visa expiration dates on driver’s licenses, a 24-hour waiting period on abortions, implementing a conceal-carry gun law, and changing the state’s education requirements” (from wikipedia)
    8) Pawlenty did better than normal for the GOP in the suburbs of Minneapolis-St. Paul
    9) From the state where the Convention is and a swing state within a 5 point margin.

    Negatives:
    1) Not exciting
    2) Maybe not the best successor
    3) No military/foreign policy background
    4) Wants Global Warming legislation
    5) Bridge collapsed on his watch (I guess that’s a negative)

  • Adam_C

    Here is some analysis I did elsewhere on whether Pawlenty can flip MN:

    I can’t answer that yes or no. As I’ve repeated far too often, I think VPs don’t do much except move a few points in their home state. Pawlenty is a 6 year GOV which is a good spot to be. As of this week, he has good fav/unfav in MN: 55/39 (+16). That includes “59 percent of independents and even 30 percent of Democrats think the governor is doing a good job.” Those are good numbers if not fantastic ones.

    Edwards moved NC about 3 points. Gore moved TN about 5-10 points in 1992 and 1996 from what I’ve studied.

    If I were forced to put a number on it, I think Pawlenty could move 2-5 points. MN has not been polled as much as some other states in August (only twice), but the RCP average right now is Obama +4.5. Fivethirtyeight’s projection, which is more accurate in my opinion, predicts MN to be Obama +5.5.

    So I would say Pawlenty can’t seal the deal himself. However, it could make MN part of the OH/VA/CO/MI debate. It could make 5 big swing states and it would be an addition that would add many more paths to 270 for McCain.

  • Spartan4Life

    IMHO.

    We all might like the pick but I don’t think it will help much politically.

    I liked more out of the box names like Meg Whitman and Chris Cox.

  • Neil_Stevens

    Unless somebody makes a bad mistake, this race is going down to the wire just like 2000 and 2004. There are going to be one or more close states whose counts and possibly recounts will decide everything, most likely.

    You’re not going to pull ahead under your own power. It’ll take help from the other guy. So, it doesn’t make sense to try to ‘hit a home run’ with your VP pick. Taking any chances just leaves you open to make a mistake that helps the opponent.

    Pawlenty is not an exciting pick. He’s a safe pick. He’s with the base enough not to anger anyone. He’s proven to be able to talk to Democrats wihtout angering them too badly, having won in the state he won in.

    Pawlenty doesn’t as much upside as a potential ‘game changer,’ but he also has much less downside, too.

    I wouldn’t mind Cantor, but I think Pawlenty makes good sense and have to disagree with anyone who bashes such a nomination.

  • Mark_Kilmer

    the choices above, but I was hoping McCain wanted to clip Obama at the knees by choosing Lieberman. No matter whom the selection might be, so long as it is not Romney, this ticket will do fine.

    Pawlenty reminds me a little of Joel Osteen.

  • Spartan4Life

    Man, he is not real dynamic.

    I hope he is “safe” not “boring”.

  • ajdx3

    This would be a terrible pick. It does nothing to energize the electorate. With all this hype and suspense about who he is going to pick, Pawlenty is very anti-climatic. There is no way he carries Minnesota, and he does nothing to help win votes anywhere else. McCain should pick someone who can help with votes and, more importantly, stand toe-to-toe with Biden and throw it back at him when he starts getting crazy (and he will).

  • SteveLA

    So who would you think would meet your specifications? Enlighten us please.

  • CK_MacLeod

    A popular governor should have more pull in his own state than a creature of Washington like Al Gore or John Edwards had in his. Gore’s pull in Tennessee was so weak he couldn’t even win it when he was on the top of the ticket. It’s questionable whether Edwards, even before that little problem turned up in the National Enquirer, would have won his home state in a national election from the top of the ticket.

    It’s all completely speculative, of course. Being host of the convention should give his favorite son status a bit of a boost – probably not in itself of lasting significance, but doesn’t hurt.

  • CSUFBomb

    …has a pretty sharp wit, albeit a bit low-key. He’s not my “wow” pick, but maybe a bit underrated on the personality factor.

  • Spartan4Life

    Now, that would shake things up.

    She has more credibility on the economy in her pinky than Obama and Biden combined.

  • CSUFBomb

    …although I believe he was pro-life before he drank ManBearPig’s cup o’ global warmth.

    Strategically, Lieberman would help expose BO’s mindless “4 more of the last 8″ mantra as a lie and reinforce the fact that, unlike BO, McCain does play with both parties.

  • dld1717

    Pawlenty is young and has the picture perfect kids. He is Catholic, he rose against a parents death, worked his way through college, and has a long record of accomplishments.

    He energizes this young Republican.

  • Adam_C

    My understanding is he converted. His wife is Baptist.

  • ajdx3

    “young and has the picture perfect kids…worked his way through college, and has a long record of accomplishments.” Funny, they say the same about Obama.

  • Adam_C

    has actual accomplishments. He has been both a legislative leader (State House Majority Leader) and executive leader (Governor).

  • dld1717

    People wanted someone who can take over if something bad happened to McCain and we needed someone who can crisscross this country and motivate voters for McCain and pump us up.

    For me he does.

  • ajdx3

    too bad for most Americans, and most voters, he won’t.