A Conservative Reality Check: Main Street is Tied to Wall Street


If you listen closely, you can hear a lot of the “hell no” rhetoric starting to shift to “maybe we should vote for a plan.”

Even Tom Coburn has now said he would vote for the plan.

Why? Because while the conservatives on the Hill have been listening to people like me and you who are opposed to the plan, they are starting to hear from the front lines — the people who are already seeing that there is problem.

As I said the other day, I don’t support the plan, but I don’t begrudge those who do because it is very clear that something serious is happening out there that a lot of us in Macon, GA and Scranton, PA and Alameda, CA don’t quite see yet.

The White House and others are starting to circulate quotes tying Main Street to Wall Street. Whether you are like me and not so inclined to support this plan, or not, these are people who deserve to be heard.

Here’s a sampling:


“The defeat of the bipartisan financial rescue package earlier today was uncalled for and wrong for America. This is no time for politics as usual in Washington. The severity of this situation is a reality that none of us likes, but we must deal with it. To avoid a massive financial crisis, our elected officials must lead and protect our national interests. This legislation, while not perfect, will enable the Treasury to stabilize the global financial markets and restore confidence in the U.S. financial system. We cannot afford to waste any more time on political posturing. The NAM strongly urges Members of Congress of both parties to reconsider their “no” votes on this important legislation. Our economy is at stake. Further delay will foster uncertainty and do greater damage to financial markets.” — Former Governor and current President of the National Association of Manufacturers John Engler

“Make no mistake – if Congress does not act quickly, decisively, and responsibly to prevent a total freeze up of our financial system, the entire economy could collapse with devastating consequences. Without a doubt, it would be the greatest financial calamity since the Great Depression, impacting consumers and small and large businesses alike.” — R. Bruce Josten, Government Affairs VP at the U.S. Chamber of Commerce.

“In particular, the administration should be given the authority to require appropriate reforms by any companies or entities whose bad debt it acquires so that this situation does not reoccur, including authority to deal appropriately with excessive executive compensation at a time when taxpayers are footing the bill.” — Former Secretary of the Treasury and all around bad ass James A. Baker.

“[T]here are times when events force timetables on you and force action.” “[R]ight now business is having trouble throughout the economy. But a collapse of the kind of institutions that were threatened last week, and their inability to fund, would have caused industry and retail and everything else to grind to something close to a halt. It was, and still is, a very, very dangerous situation.” — Warren Buffett

“While the Paulson plan has risks in both design and execution, we support it as a way to defend the larger financial system if it can be passed in clean enough form to create a market. … What Americans deserve to hear is that, despite 13 months of credit turmoil, our resilient economy is still standing; and that this $700 billion will be the best money Congress appropriates this year if it prevents a recession and crash.” (Editorial, “The Paulson Sale,” The Wall Street Journal, 9/24/08)

[Editors Note: It's a sad, sad day when we conservatives treat the WSJ Op-Ed Board as the enemy]

“‘The banking system can’t shut down all credit or you’ll shut down the economy,’ Ward said.” “‘If you’re not careful, you fulfill your own prophecy. You have to have faith in small businesses, you can’t pull into a shroud and stop all credit. The reality is this may be affecting the growth of our economy.’” — Ron Ward, owner of RSW Management, Inc. in Balsam Lake, WS.

“My construction company [Cyprus Construction] has grown from a one-man show to 14 employees, grossing $1 million annually. Last year, the phone stopped ringing - nothing was coming in. I tried bank loans but got nothing.” “Then I tried the ‘receivables loan’ people, who promised a great package that would just skim off my credit card sales for repayment. After 2 months of endless document requests, phone calls and e-mails, I was turned down by all of them.” (Michael Downey, “Small Biz Credit Crunch: In Their Own Words,” Money.CNN.com, 9/23/08)

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47 Comments Leave a comment

Still Not Sold

BigGator5 Tuesday, September 30th at 12:46PM EDT (link)

I’m still not sold. Wall Street won’t learn their lesson if they do not hurt.

 

hmmmm

Darin_H Tuesday, September 30th at 1:03PM EDT (link)

I could be wrong , but wasn’t the WSJ Ed page for the immigration plan last year?

These people/institutions aren’t infallible.

___________________________________

 

As Fred Thompson Mocked At The Convention

Swamp_Yankee Tuesday, September 30th at 1:10PM EDT (link)

“We are not going ot take water out of your half of the bucket, we are going to take it from the other half.”

Yes, conservatives beleive in free markets. But it is also a Reagon who espoused the principles of trickle down economics and liberals who divide us into classes and espouse “finite pie” economics. As if getting mad and punishing the rich is an isolated action with no effect on the “water other half of the bucket”. Trying to sever Wall Street from Main Street is liberal classism. It is the antithesis of Reaganomics.

Anywy, this is a debate for post-election. The role of markets and regulations are beyond the scope of the average undecided voter.

We have four years to assort this mess. We have 33 days to win the election and make sure McCain is their to stop Pelosi and Reid handouts.

Arguing past each other

MikeO Tuesday, September 30th at 1:21PM EDT (link)

The demagoguery against Wall Street fatcats is out there already. That tide is not going to be turned with reason.

I say that we harness the tide and use it against the democrat legislators and quasi-public GSE employees whose covering-up and defense of the indefensible is available on video for all to see.

Demonize them in the courts, defeat them at the polls, and then fix the problems both without their debilitating self-serving “input” and with their severed heads on pikes serving as an example to the next idiots who try to foist bad social engineering on us.

We won't have McCain

Erick Erickson Tuesday, September 30th at 1:28PM EDT (link)

As long as the bailout issue stays on the front page.

image

Who will stand on either hand and keep this bridge with me?

 
 
 

Country first

zebrapants Tuesday, September 30th at 1:32PM EDT (link)

There’s no reason to sentence all of America to prison, just to punish a few people. Wall Street has screwed up, but being stubborn about that now hurts all of us.

Something must be done, and soon. While it would be nice for that thing to have a less socialist and a more free-market feel to it, the reality is that democrats control both houses of congress right now.

House Republicans need to get on board and push out a centrist bill. It won’t be perfect. But as congress stands today, we can’t get a perfect bill. These times are desperate, and an imperfect bill that passes is much better than an perfect bill that doesn’t.

Doesn't mean they're an *enemy* (nt)

Neil Stevens Tuesday, September 30th at 1:32PM EDT (link)

Want to run for conservatives? Give.
There Is No Crisis

 
 

Country first

zebrapants Tuesday, September 30th at 1:34PM EDT (link)

There’s no reason to sentence all of America to prison, just to punish a few people. Wall Street has screwed up, but being stubborn about that now hurts all of us.

Something must be done, and soon. While it would be nice for that thing to have a less socialist and a more free-market feel to it, the reality is that democrats control both houses of congress right now.

House Republicans need to get on board and push out a centrist bill. It won’t be perfect. But as congress stands today, we can’t get a perfect bill. These times are desperate, and an imperfect bill that passes is much better than an perfect bill that doesn’t.

 

I have been saying this ...

Mark Reiboldt Tuesday, September 30th at 1:37PM EDT (link)

Rescuing the financial markets isn’t just about bailing out Wall St. If Wall St doesn’t do well, then your business doesn’t do well. If we had the time, every single person here could list their employer and we could find a way that their income would be directly affected by this crisis. Now, if everyone is ready to take a hit in the name of “letting the markets fail,” then let’s do it, but be careful what you wish for, because it will be a bumpy ride. There are a lot of smart people saying the markets need liquidity in the form of intervention from the Fed. Conversely, there are a lot of people who have no clue what the economic crisis means advocating against rescuing the markets. Sure, the Paulson Plan wasn’t/isn’t flawless, but neither will the next package to come down the pipe. The problem of our markets needing to be stabilized still won’t disappear though.

Erick, you can add Newt and Jim McCrery to the list.

Yes Darin the oped pages of the WSJ was in the tank for amnesty and...

JadedByPolitics Tuesday, September 30th at 1:47PM EDT (link)

they are all about the business side of things and good give a rats _ _ _ about main street!

and no Erick they are not the enemy but they are hardly HONEST about their bias towards anything that is for BIG BUSINESS!

Whoever has his enemy at his mercy &
does not destroy him is his own enemy

 
 

Agree in part, Disagree in part

JSobieski Tuesday, September 30th at 1:47PM EDT (link)

Agree that this crisis does impact Main Street

Agree that government action is required

Agree that SOME people in opposition to the Paulson plan are using the Main Street vs. Wall Street populistic rhetoric in a way that is politically opportunistic

Disagree that the Paulson plan is the only viable approach to approaching this problem

Disagree that the core of the Paulson plan is a good diea

Disagree that urgency is so critical, that we need to do Paulson . . NOW without debating alternatives

There are several things the executive branch can do unilaterally that would help. If the problem is so critical, why not take those steps . . NOW?

If the timing is so critical, why has the Treasury department admitted that it would be several weeks before any securities actually get purchased under the Paulson plan?

Why is the mark-to-market rule so important that it cannot be suspended when the application of that rule results in prices that Paulson is unwilling to use for the Paulson Plan (e.g. mark-to-market rules would result in too low of a purchase price).

Lets focus on what is at stake. Beating up on straw men serves nobody, much less the country as a whole.


 

Why are my scumbag detectors going off?

Achance Tuesday, September 30th at 1:52PM EDT (link)

Something stinks to high heaven in this! I accept that “we the People” are going to have to do something to prop up the MBS’ value. I don’t know exactly what, maybe a revision of the accounting rules, maybe some direct purchase or guarantee; I don’t know what is best. But, I don’t want to throw a multi-billion dollar pot of money out there for the people who made this mess to get their paws in!

I’ve been through the end times of administrations, and everybody is looking to make their bed or feather their nest, and that isn’t an R or D thing, it is a thing that political appointee types do as an administration comes to an end, and in this case as an administration seems to be unravelling. That isn’t meant to be as critical as it sounds, it is awfully, awfully difficult to stay engaged even through one term, two is almost impossible. FDR’s administration shows you what three or more does; it kills people.

I’m just at a place where I really don’t trust anybody with this anymore. I called last week what the Ds would do; lard it up and try to force a fiat accompli and if it failed, blame the Rs. So far it has worked for them. I have no faith in the allegiances and alliances of the Treasury and Commerce types in the Administration, all of them are thinking mostly about what they’ll be doing in January, not about what is good for the Country. And, I have no illusions about what all the people who are busy ordering the furniture for their office in a new Obama or McCain Administration are thinking about. What a horrible time for something like this to be happening - if it is happening at all. How much of this is a manufactured crisis just to get some hands in the cookie jar? Clearly some of it is since the World hasn’t ended yet on each of the days that the end was predicted. Somethin’ ain’t right!

In Vino Veritas

 

My betters in NYC and DC want it?

Brent J. Tuesday, September 30th at 1:53PM EDT (link)

Well, I’m sold now. They do know what’s better for us all out here in Dumbf*ckistan.

Brent J.
http://www.DownTheTicket.com
–Because there’s always something to do.

Virtually every election, Conservatives face the following option

JSobieski Tuesday, September 30th at 1:53PM EDT (link)

Support all sorts of non-conservative policies, or else, the liberals will win, and you will really be sorry.

It took me months to stomach supporting McCain, something I do now 100%. However, I draw the line at saying that the Paulson plan is the only way to save Capitalism.

Why is the mere exploration of alternatives off limits?

Why is New Deal II the only acceptable option?

Until someone on the pro-rescue plan side actually explains why Paulson’s plan is uniquely qualified to provide for our salvation, I fail to see why alternative approaches is not prudent.


 
 

Scary consequences of no bailout felt on Wall Street today!

SirGladiator Tuesday, September 30th at 1:58PM EDT (link)

Oh the horrors, all those people saying that the Government should take 6 Thousand Dollars from every person in America and give their money to Foreign Banks and Wall Street were clearly right, and we who opposed it were clearly wrong. I mean, clearly if prices on Wall Street goes down for a day or two that means the world as we know it is ending, right? So this horrible selloff for the second day in a row really proves that Socialism is cool and we who oppose it are just fuddy duddies. I mean, 4 hundred points down today, this is awful….oh, wait, thats a PLUS sign? That can’t be, the world is ending because the GOP didn’t vote for Socialism. Maybe I need to try a different TV channel, they’ll have the ‘real’ number, the one that says its DOWN 400 points…no, plus sign on that channel too. Darn, what’s going on? I thought the sky was falling! I mean, all those folks on TV talking down to Americans, saying how stupid they were to oppose Socialism and that Government taking 6 thousand dollars from everybody in America and giving it away to foreigners and Wall Street was the only way to solve this major crisis, weren’t they saying things were going to get WORSE if the Socialism wasn’t passed? Maybe they meant to say BETTER. Yeah, they just mis-spoke slightly. Now I understand. The reason we, the American people who oppose Socialism, only ‘thought’ they said things would get worse if that bailout didn’t pass is that we’re so stupid, just like they said we were. I stand corrected.

 

I'll stand with you, Erick

Finrod Tuesday, September 30th at 2:02PM EDT (link)

As my diary entry about the latest Rasmussen survey says, the more people know about this ‘bailout’ plan, the more they’re for it. Letting the credit market collapse would be like dropping a bomb on the economy. Sure, you might have a good fall-out shelter, but your neighbors don’t, and it takes a long time for radioactivity to go away.

We need to tie this problem to Barack Obama and ACORN pressuring banks to give loans to people that can’t repay them (Community Reinvestment Act), but we can’t do that without fixing the problem that they caused.


Finrod’s First Law of Bandwidth:
A picture may be worth a thousand words, but it takes the bandwidth of ten thousand.

Don't get to ahead of yourself

Aaron Weatherford Tuesday, September 30th at 2:03PM EDT (link)

Headlines for tomorrow will be “stocks rebound due to new hopes plan will pass as Obama rides in on white horse”

“My friends, it is coming to my attention that a great number of you are fearful of an Obama win. I must stress that you have nothing to fear from Obama winning the election as I have the greatest confidence he would be a most benevolent dictator.” - Hopefully John McCain

 
 

The administration is wasting its time

Samsara Tuesday, September 30th at 2:03PM EDT (link)

Unless Limbaugh, Hannity, Gingrich, and the rest of the base outreach machine is on board, they can kiss House Republican support for this plan goodbye. I don’t like the plan, who does? But I believe Paulson because I have been persuaded by his arguments. And all this talk about Administration not selling the plan rings hollow to me. Bush gave the best speech he has in years in defense of this plan. Paulson has been very forceful in his explanation. The reason it is not “selling” is because bad new never “sells”. The question is are we going to face the music of fiddle while the economy burns.

But now I’m wasting my time. Arguments will not persuade right wing radio, only ratings do that. And a fire makes a hell of a story.

As Rush said yesterday, “To hell with the markets.” That’s the down side of having entertainers as the main communication link between the party and its base.

not urban vs. rural

zebrapants Tuesday, September 30th at 2:05PM EDT (link)

I don’t think this is an urban vs. rural thing.

The national economy and the financial markets are genuinely complex things, and most people (myself included) don’t really understand all of the details of how they function.

The issue is an expert vs. non-expert thing. And most of the experts, in both parties, agree that something needs to be done. Participating in democracy is our civic duty, but when most of the experts across the spectrum agree that we should act, in my opinion we should defer to them at this time.

 
 

I am jaded Erick. However….

Marcus_Traianus Tuesday, September 30th at 2:08PM EDT (link)

if this is the best we can do so be it; with the understanding any benefit will be very short lived.

Every single industry organization I know has reached out and asked me to encourage my Representatives to vote aye. What I articulated to them was;

  • There needs to be a termination of authority written into the bill or a reauthorization of authority
  • Including the HOPE, et al other handouts (about 108 down?) will prolong and kick this issue down the road
  • Not liquidating Fannie/Freddie is a guarantee for future failures
  • Not reforming HUD, CRA and other lending mandates that encourage dilution of credit standards is another guarantee for repeat
  • Reducing the US corporate tax rate, highest in the OECD should be the number one priority for bringing liquidity back into the US

For the past week or so I have heard the entire world kick us in the groin, led by fools like Peer Steinbrück. Now today, I see Merkel and other EU leaders imploring our Congress to act. I would love to return the bird and vote no, but guess the old adage “revenge is a dish best served cold” will have to be the operative principle.

Should we follow the points articulated above (especially taxation), add a review of remarking book at par value, and not only will we revive the market but the socialist cretins will be back to hating us again real soon.

“Both of our political parties, at least the honest portion of them, agree conscientiously in the same object—the public good; but they differ essentially in what they deem the means of promoting that good. One side believes it best done by one composition of the governing powers; the other, by a different one. One fears most the ignorance of the people; the other, the selfishness of rulers independent of them. Which is right, time and experience will prove.”.Thomas Jefferson

Contributor to The Minority Report

That's Been My Singular Point The Last Two Days n/t

Swamp_Yankee Tuesday, September 30th at 2:22PM EDT (link)

That’s Been My Singular Point The Last Two Days n/t

 
 

Uh, you're missing something.

nlj Tuesday, September 30th at 2:31PM EDT (link)

There are plenty of economists saying the exact opposite.

Baker and Buffett? They’re not conservative. Buffett is practically like Biden, thinking that paying taxes is patriotic.

We had to have the bill by last Friday. And if we didn’t, we had to have it before opening bell Monday. And if we didn’t, we had to have it done during the day Monday.

And then we didn’t. Market fell. Already back 50%.

And even if everything crashes, this whole credit-based, inflationary country needs a good kick in the butt because Main Street is not exactly innocent in this matter either.

Citizens didn’t have to take loans they can’t pay back. I was encouraged to get a subprime loan. I just took a clue from Nancy Reagan and just said no.

I disagree

Maggie_in_Indiana Tuesday, September 30th at 2:37PM EDT (link)

if the Democrats don’t want the blame for this bill if it fails ,give in to where it is revised so we don’t use taxpayer money to do it. McCain would and shoud jump all over that,fast!

Maggie in Indiana

Here's an alternative

Maggie_in_Indiana Tuesday, September 30th at 2:41PM EDT (link)

Here's an alternative

Maggie_in_Indiana Tuesday, September 30th at 2:41PM EDT (link)

Thank you n/t

Maggie_in_Indiana Tuesday, September 30th at 2:45PM EDT (link)

n/t

Maggie in Indiana

Jeez, talk about missing the point! n/t

Vegas_Rick Tuesday, September 30th at 2:49PM EDT (link)

n/t

“Nothing in this world can take the place of persistence. Talent will not; nothing is more common than unsuccessful people with talent. Genius will not; unrewarded genius is almost a proverb. Education will not; the world is full of educated derelicts. Persistence and determination alone are omnipotent. The slogan ‘press on’ has solved and always will solve the problems of the human race.” Calvin Coolidge.

Why not for Obama

Maggie_in_Indiana Tuesday, September 30th at 2:51PM EDT (link)

if we are just going to der to those who know best. He’s been trying to convince the masses for 2 years!

Maggie in Indiana

 
 
 
 
 
 
 

More facts. Less "trust me some more" PLEASE.

asleep06 Tuesday, September 30th at 2:55PM EDT (link)

Everywhere I turn, proponents of the bailout seem to be acting as organs of the Bush administration talking points.

As I said over and over in public and private communications, I’d be perfectly willing to consider this bailout IF:

  1. A bailout proponent can actually make a decent argument supported by facts and evidence as to why they think these subprime mortgage-backed securities will actually pay taxpayers back in the long run, considering the fact that we’re in a severe and continuing market correction of housing prices fueling continuing mortgage defaults across the country, which are precisely the things that give mortgage-backed securities any value whatsoever.

All I get are “it’s really reasonable” or “sensible” to believe that these “distressed securities” are worth a lot more than the market actually values them at. But what if the market is rationally apprehending the fact that the housing prices will continue to decline because they were propped up for so many years?

  1. Paulson is fired. I know we can’t fire Bernanke and the elected representatives, but someone has to take responsibility for this and NO ONE HAS, so the American people are RIGHTLY not trusting the government.

  2. Someone can explain how re-inflating the credit bubble by injecting more credit into Bad banks is a good idea when those foolish banks should fail and better ones take their place and their profits for doing a better job extending credit.

Small is beautiful.

 

700 billion dollars would

Maggie_in_Indiana Tuesday, September 30th at 3:01PM EDT (link)

pay off every mortgage in America under $75,000. Why not just do that instead of handing our money to those who screwed us in the first place. Then we’d all be on the hook to the federal government. Wait.. in Socialist countries don’t they call it “the State”

Maggie in Indiana

What ever........n/t

Maggie_in_Indiana Tuesday, September 30th at 3:05PM EDT (link)

n/t

Maggie in Indiana

I oppose the bailout but I agree that the distressed paper will likely make money in the long term

JSobieski Tuesday, September 30th at 3:11PM EDT (link)

If you really stop to think about the current credit/liquidity crisis, the magnitude and urgency of the crisis doesn’t make sense. Only a relatively small percentage of mortgages are delinquent, and an even smaller percentage are in foreclosure. 9% of all mortgages in the US are currently in a state of default (i.e. delinquency), which can mean anything from being a bit short or a bit delayed to foreclosure/bankruptcy. This number is up from merely 1% in October of 2007. However, even if one assumes that the entire 9% of mortgage debt on the market is absolutely worthless (an assumption that exaggerates the magnitude of underpayment), that still leaves 91% that is fully valued and on-time. 91% may not be great, but in the range of investment outcomes, it’s hardly a disaster.

In most industries, there are collection issues. Even a small business like mine loses a certain % of accounts receivable each year because businesses close, people go into bankruptcy, etc. In other words, companies frequently lose money on their least profitable customers/clients. In good years, the profitable clients/customers make up for the losses. In the bad years, many companies lose money in the aggregate and still manage to continue operations without a bailout or bankruptcy.

Losses at the Big Three have periodically been at or above the 10% mark and they have been losing money for several consecutive years. GM recently lost $27.33/share, a number that far exceeds 10% of the equity value of GM—and this happened after several years of significant consecutive losses. In contrast, the Financial sector was making a killing through 2006, and is now in need of government assistance because the number of delinquent mortgages has risen to 9%?

So why is the current crisis based on a 9% default rate such a crisis? Why is the financial system so vulnerable?

Blame the accounting rules!

According to the “mark-to-market” accounting rule, the value of a mortgage-based security is based NOT ON WHETHER THE UNDERLYING MORTGAGE PAYMENTS ARE BEING MADE , but instead on what the market is willing to pay for the particular asset at a particular instant of time.

In other words, even if Merrill Lynch holds a mortgage-based bond for which all applicable mortgage payments are being made on time and in full, the bond can still be valued at pennies on the dollar since nobody is interested, willing, or even able to purchase the bond. In the current panic-filled environment, people assume the worst and mortgage0based securities (i.e. bonds) are currently undervalued as a result.

Rational economic actors (such as individual home owners) choose to ride out the storm, and refrain from selling off assets at steep losses for the sole purpose of “getting them off their balance sheets.” In other words, if you bought a house for $500k you wouldn’t now sell it for $100k just because that is the current distress sale price for the asset. A rational person would tread water, and do what it takes to wait for the market to improve unless it was absolutely necessary to sell. Unfortunately, accounting rules essentially force sophisticated financial institutions to act in manner that you would characterize as stupid if it was your neighborhood home owner. They are required to value assets on the current market price, even if that distressed price is a bad deal and likely to be temporary. Making matters worse, such institutions are forced to either stop lending out money (essentially stopping the conduct of their business) or sell off the assets at very dumb prices in order to clear off their balance sheets. Financial institutions are limited by debt/equity ratio regulations, and thus are forced to either stop lending money or unload their bad debt at even worse prices.

This lack of logic in this situation is apparent to virtually anyone who stops to think about it, but the insanity of forcing financial institutions to dump their assets at bargain basement prices is the result of the mark-to-market accounting rule coupled with the debt/equity ratio regulations. These two factors more than any other, are the cause of the spiraling liquidity crisis.

As government officials contemplate the most expensive financial line item in U.S. history, you might want to consider the possibility that this entire crisis is the result of the “mark-to-market” accounting rule and that it may make more sense to change the rule rather than fork over $700 billion dollars ($2,400 per U..S. citizen)

Read the two articles below. The puzzling question to ask is why aren’t ANY politicians in Washington DC addressing this issue? A good follow-up question would be to ask why the talking heads on TV and radio haven’t mentioned the “mark-to-market” accounting issue as part of the public debate.

http://www.ftportfolios.com/Commentary/EconomicResearch/2008/9/22/heresaplantoavoidanew_rtc

http://online.wsj.com/article_email/SB122178603685354943-lMyQjAxMDI4MjIxMjcyODI2Wj.html


 
 
 

The Future Depends on All Growing Up

jack32133 Tuesday, September 30th at 3:12PM EDT (link)

If we followed Obama’s plan it would be just as if we were trying to fill a hole in a sinking boat- Yes, he wants to go along with the staus quo, because otherwise he wouldn’t know what to do. Bush, McCain, and others warned of this happening, and because the Democrats have Ego’s as large as Texas they refuse to accept accountability. Shame, really, because if they ever grew up they might win someday. This started with the Clinton era and if ever people accepted the truth this country can actually start to make some real progress.

It could, but..

vagabondvet Tuesday, September 30th at 3:25PM EDT (link)

That still does not fix the problem debasing the dollar or deficit spending, and is contrary to the value of individual responsibility.

But conversely

Doug_n_TX Tuesday, September 30th at 3:29PM EDT (link)

There’s no reason to sentence the next generation to paying for this either. We do need to loook at alternatives to see if there are ways to attract capital back into the markets. And we need to fix the underlying problems (like Freddie/Fannie ‘guaranteeing’ bad loans) so the next generation isn’t asked to pay for another bailout while they’re paying this one off.

Also, we can’t absolve those who got us into this situation. If we do we’re guaranteed to repeat it before too long.

Lost in Texas…………

 
 
 

Same Good Old Boys

edward_cropper Tuesday, September 30th at 3:57PM EDT (link)

The money people involved in the bailout attempt are the same insiders who have never cared about main street unless they could use their vote.
No one is concerned about the moral breakdown and probably illegal actions on the part of the speculators who helped create this mess.
If really hard times are ahead then there is probably little we can do about it. If it comes old heads like me can reflect on the past depression we went through when we were boys.

Edward Cropper

 

Same Good Old Boys

edward_cropper Tuesday, September 30th at 3:57PM EDT (link)

The money people involved in the bailout attempt are the same insiders who have never cared about main street unless they could use their vote.
No one is concerned about the moral breakdown and probably illegal actions on the part of the speculators who helped create this mess.
If really hard times are ahead then there is probably little we can do about it. If it comes old heads like me can reflect on the past depression we went through when we were boys.

Edward Cropper

 

Maybe we should put out some money for methadone clinics...

Attack Mode Tuesday, September 30th at 4:01PM EDT (link)

I mean about 200 million should do it. Wouldn’t wan’t the junkies to have to actually quit now would we?

“Land of the Free and Home of da Whopper” Peter Griffin…Family Guy

conform and celebrate diversity….or else!!!

Steel-Belted Radial Right Winger

“I’ll create 5 million jobs from out of unicorn farts and pixie dust” Justatron paraphrasing Obamessiah…yes I love it that much.

Good effort. Let's see if we can clarify.

asleep06 Tuesday, September 30th at 4:33PM EDT (link)

So why is the current crisis based on a 9% default rate such a crisis? Blame the accounting rules!

Why do you blame the accounting rules and not the overlooked fact that the default rate has increased from 1% to 9% in a single year? Wouldn’t that be a sensible reason for the markets to distrust mortgage-backed securities, especially since the cost of a default is generally in the hundreds of thousands of dollars while profit from interest from good mortgages are only in the thousands (depending on the property)? In other words 9% seems small, but it is really HUGE because the loss of each of the 9% is HUGE compared to the gain of each of the 91%.

That’s the real reason.

According to the “mark-to-market” accounting rule, the value of a mortgage-based security is based NOT ON WHETHER THE UNDERLYING MORTGAGE PAYMENTS ARE BEING MADE , but instead on what the market is willing to pay for the particular asset at a particular instant of time.

The flaw in this argument is that what the market is willing to pay is a function of whether the underlying mortgage payments are being made.

In other words, even if Merrill Lynch holds a mortgage-based bond for which all applicable mortgage payments are being made on time and in full, the bond can still be valued at pennies on the dollar since nobody is interested, willing, or even able to purchase the bond.

Sure, but why would that happen? If this is so clear to you and me, then why are investors so worried? They should be diving in! No, a better explanation is not that savvy investors are stupid, but that they appreciate the devastating losses in the subprime mortgage markets.

This lack of logic in this situation is apparent to virtually anyone who stops to think about it, but the insanity of forcing financial institutions to dump their assets at bargain basement prices is the result of the mark-to-market accounting rule coupled with the debt/equity ratio regulations. These two factors more than any other, are the cause of the spiraling liquidity crisis.

No, they are forced to dump their prices at low prices because that’s what they are worth. Those two factors are not the fundamental causes of the liquidity crisis because if the mortgages and their derivative securities were still in bubble mode, there wouldn’t be a problem even though the factors you cite are still operative. The real cause of the liquidity crisis is the decline in the real value of the mortgage-backed securities.

Thinking that the cause is merely an accounting rule, rather than the documented deterioration in the fundamental conditions of the various markets due to the housing and now credit bubbles popping is wishful thinking.

Trying to re-inflate the credit bubble by artificially injecting more credit will work just as well as trying to re-inflate the housing bubble by artificially raising the prices of housing.

The market correction needs to happen. Let the banks fail.

Small is beautiful.

5555+++

asleep06 Tuesday, September 30th at 4:36PM EDT (link)

nt

Small is beautiful.

It is clear that good paper is being devalued along with the good paper

JSobieski Tuesday, September 30th at 5:57PM EDT (link)

Read the article on Merril Lynch provided above.

Devalued paper is created in a death spiral by the MTM and Debt/Equity rules.

The 9% is just the initial match.

I will write more later tonight.


 
 
 
 

They're using emotion, not logic

sbowers3 Tuesday, September 30th at 7:48PM EDT (link)

I’m willing to be convinced but so far not a single person has tried to convince me. They’ve tried to worry me, to scare me with talk about “another Depression” but that’s just emotional rhetoric. Nobody has tried to convince me with logic, rather than emotion.

If there really is a crisis I wish someone would provide the step-by-step scenario that explains how a problem for a handful of big financial companies is a coming disaster for 300 million taxpayers. Show me how government inaction (usually a good thing) will cause A, which will cause B, which will cause C, which will cause Disaster.

The Washington Post and CNN-Money both report that smaller banks are thriving. My local banker is almost eager to lend me money on commercial real estate. I asked him about the credit crisis and he replied, “There is no crisis locally. [Name of bank] is alive and well with more than the required capital to be rated a well capitalized bank. We are here to lend and have money to do so.”

“Government is the great fiction through which everybody endeavors to live at the expense of everybody else.”

 

Dems shooting at Walls St and hitting Main St

Harod Tuesday, September 30th at 8:24PM EDT (link)

You cant aim at Wall St without hitting Main St so maybe if we put it in terms they can understand for example Obama’s tax increases is like Operation Iraqi freedom, we drop a 1000lb bombs in Bagdad to kill terrorist but there is going to be alot of collateral damage, thats what corporate taxes do.

Yes, because the securities mix the good and bad up...

asleep06 Wednesday, October 1st at 9:02AM EDT (link)

… poisoning it all due to the high loss of each default. It’s already known that good paper is being devalued along with the bad, because they’re mixed together and consequently are inseparable, unless someone actually disentangles the securities that chopped them into little bits and mixed them together. Which isn’t going to happen.

Small is beautiful.

No--by way of illustration. Imagine that all mortgages were bundled together in a single mortgage-backed security

JSobieski Wednesday, October 1st at 9:47AM EDT (link)

91% of mortgages are being paid in full and on time

9% of mortgages are delinquent, some in foreclosure

The aggregate mark-to-market value of mortgage based securities has sunk far lower than the 9% deliquency number would indicate.

There is no current demand for the paper because people have no confidence that the good paper won’t turn out to be bad paper.


Make that $95k and I'm in.

virgil Wednesday, October 1st at 9:59AM EDT (link)

Otherwise I prefer an insurance stategy, capital gains tax cuts, mark to market change and extension of Bush’s tax cuts.

 
 
 
 

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