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EDITOR OF REDSTATE

The October Surprise Is No Surprise At All

By: Erick Erickson (Diary)  |  October 8th, 2008 at 09:44 AM  | 

RESIZE: AAA

Don’t underestimate the McCain campaign.

What type of movie do Americans really like? Not the popcorn flicks, but the ones that leave you saying “holy sh–” at the end when the credits roll. The Usual Suspects comes to mind.

Here’s a movie where you have multiple story lines coming together toward the end, all connected to a central character, and when it finally dawns on you what just happened, wow — it is one heck of a movie. Separate plot elements dramatically merge into one coherent narrative and you realize had you been paying attention all along you would have seen it.

It really works. Those stories have powerful staying power.

For more than two months the Republicans have pushed the ACORN story — a corrupt, radical organization that operates through voter fraud to disrupt American democracy, destabilize our financial system, agitate against business, etc. Just this week the FBI State Attorney General raided ACORN in Nevada and discovered how prevalent their voter fraud operation is. The FBI is expected to get involved.

Separately, the GOP started painting a picture of Obama’s campaign donations. He’s been extremely secretive. In a bit of marxist doublespeak, the Obama campaign is saying it is the most transparent campaign ever, but won’t provide a list of its donors, destroyed Obama’s Illinois legislative files, won’t provide his health records, etc. The more we learn about his small donors, the more questions we have about foreigners trying to sway the American democratic system.

And then there is the McCain campaign. It has gone zealously after Bill Ayers’s connection to Obama. Ayers hired Obama to run the Chicago Annenberg Challenge, after launching Obama’s political career in his living room.

Bill Ayers, in applying for the Annenberg Challenge grant, said the purpose of the money would be to radicalize students to agitate for change. Who did he put in charge of the program? Barack Obama.

Who did Obama give the money to?

ACORN.

And the separate plots begin to connect. The ACORN narrative, the Ayers narrative, the foreign donor narrative — they intersect, combine, tangle, and paint a very ugly picture of Barack Obama

What Obama did on the board with the Annenberg money and what he’d do with your money come in to the narrative.

But I’m told there will be a surprise twist in this plot that will make it even neater to watch unfold.

The next month is going to be tumultuous and fun.

The October Surprise is that there is no “surprise.” It’s been in front of us all along. Only now the various story lines are getting connected.

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COMMENTS

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  • nswider

    To preface, my grandmother is a lifelong, hardcore democrat. I was able to talk her into watching Sean Hannity’s weekend show where he exposed ACORN and she changed her mind. This is a huge story that is being missed and is slowly changing minds even among democrats. I think Democrats are going to lose and they wont even see it coming. This is no thanks to our candidate by the way, but its thanks to stories like this that people are talking about. This is resonating and it will only continue to resonate. The FBI already raided their offices in Vegas, and I think there will be more where that came from. I’m new to your site and I have to say I am very impressed with the way you find the real story that no one else is talking about. http://conservativeinsights.com/

  • roxer

    propose to get that info into the living rooms of the American public before vote day? Most of this stuff is available to political wonks, but not the casual American voter. You will not see it pushed by the MSM on Joe six-pack’s TV and they certainly won’t read it on Redstate. So how is this going to get out to the vast majority of voters we need to reach before November 4th?

    Don’t get me wrong, I had faith he would make it happen last night, but McCain has a dog in this fight and so far he’s asleep on the porch. A nice shock collar would be nice right about now…

  • Erick

    The media really and truly won’t be able to ignore it. They will be able to downplay it, but not ignore it.

  • roxer

    they won’t ignore it, just wait a little late to release it. We only have three weeks left. What ever McCain can do, he better do now. My hope is that once voters step into the booth, the old change of heart kicks in. Ah yes, hope and then change.

  • Frozen_Man

    I was just about to make a similar comment that my fear is that not enough people will get the plot because no one in the MSM is willing to cover it or do the work to connect the dots.

  • PaRep

    Ads ready to go

  • acasilaco

    n/t

  • youthgrunt

    I’m still frustrated that this campaign is not about ideas and is about personality (e.g. ACORN corruption). Obama should be repudiated because of his liberalism and what he would do on any of a number of issues. What we presume via the coming October surprise is that Obama will be undone by his allies and his history with corrupt organizations.

  • Finrod
  • Robert_L_Mayo

    Fox News Megyn Kelly interviewed a Nevada reporter and asked about the FBI raid. The reporter corrected her and said it was not the FBI, it was a warrant executed by the state Attorney Generals office, although the FBI is expected to get involved soon.

    I know it’s nit picking, but air-tight is good.

  • Nick09

    in one of Rush Limbaugh’s transcripts that McCain believes an election is won in the last 72 hrs. of it, and that is when they are planning to drop that bomb.

    Not sure if this is true though.
    Anyone else hear of anything like this?

  • MelZ

    When I made the comment that I wish all of America understood the “connections” scandal of Obama, my husband told me that of course all of America knew as it was on the news every night.
    Oh no I told him. We see it on Fox News every day, we hear Hannity talking about it, but NBC, CBS and ABC are not airing this STORY. My husband forgot that I usually control the remote and we have managed to shelter ourselves from the MSM. Fox is the number one cable news station, but those numbers are small cmopared to the three major broadcast networks.
    That said, I don’t know the answer to your question.

  • Vegas_Rick

    Ayers and ACORN can be tied, full circle, back to Obama AND the sub-prime lending crisis.

    ACORN hires young Obama to train their organizers. ACORN organizers,in addition to fraudulent voter registration activities, strong arms banks into giving sub-prime loans to low income people.

    Lawyer Obama sues Citi Bank becuase they won’t give out sub-prime loans….

    You get the idea.

  • tir

    I really do, but right now I’m so fed up with the people around me and some of the ones that I thought were halfway intelligent that are falling for Obama hook, line, and sinker.

    Obama is the new teflon man, whatever it is, if it isn’t big enough, people will just shrug their shoulders and say…”but he gives me hope, he’s a uniter…he’s going to bring people together for change” vomit

  • ilitigant

    You are right in the direction you are heading with logic and deduction, but you are wrong to stop where you did. And you need to change your title. It is your deduced opinion, and I am very happy to say: completely wrong. Connected yes. The topic, no! There is more, and yes… if you had been glued to the media for the last two years you would have picked up on the pattern, it is all out there so yes, it would not be a surprise to anyone who had the entire story line, but to almost everyone, it will be a surprise and it will be crushing to Obama and the Democrats and it will elect John McCain. I know. I’m in it. Of course people on this site have tried to toy with the things I’ve mentioned before about an ‘October Surprise’ but they won’t. I’m behaving myself (for now) in staying quiet on what it is, but it is already out there. It is, already public.

  • HsvConservative

    hope we have enough time.

  • davidingeorgia

    …something like that is coming, but so far the McCain campaign – aside from picking Sarah Palin as his VP – to make me think they have nearly that much on the ball to coordinate something like that…hope you’re right, but I sure wouldn’t bet on it.

  • CroakerNorge

    Could one of the candidates start ridiculing the constant harping on racism? Gently, of course. Americans are not stupid. We know what racism is. Surely having The Sarah point out that fact a few times would help.

  • mikefisk

    n/t

  • ilitigant

    May I call your attention to:

    Eastern time, 12:13:36 on September 27, 2007

    Enter Limbaugh (snips are only about what candidate):

    The general election in 2008 will not be about George W. Bush, nor will the general election in 2008 be about the Iraq war. The election, the presidential election in 2008 will be about the Democrat nominee, … the election in 2008 is going to be about the Democrat nominee, because they’re all a bunch of Big-Government, tax-raising, freedom-threatening socialists, versus a Republican nominee — … So, folks, fireworks are ahead and down the road.

  • Hestrold

    Sorry, no one cares about this, other than us. It won’t make a drip of a difference. Unless you are telling me that the McCain campaign has the goods and is going to release it as part of a plan, I don’t go for conspiracy theories or stuff like that.

  • awtherfrd

    Just want to thank you for keeping my spirits high. I feel deep down that America is not really asleep but just waiking up and will realize what the truth before the 4th.

    I look forward to getting a jump start this weekend at the AFP summit.

  • streetwise

    “SHOCKED, I tell you”.

    Yes, this is something to look forward to.

  • youthgrunt

    I guess what I want is to go beyond the “Obama is a liberal” argument (a true assessment) to “Obama will do x because he sees the Federal government as the answer; I (McCain) will do y because I see the Federal government as the problem.

  • izoneguy

    and are hardly besides themselves as Putin is licking his chops in glee waiting for a President Obama. The Europeans will soon be cut of from the world as Russia stops the flow of oil. Maybe the French will keep going as 80% of their power comes from nuclear power plants. Mahmoud Ahmadinejad is clearing his calendar for the long awaited sit-down with Obama. The Pakistan military is on high alert waiting for the invasion of US forces that have been pulled out of Iraq.

  • KeepOhioRed

    ..lay it on us.

    I so so hope you are right. But we keep hearing about “taking off the gloves”, yet the debate was lame and that’s when most people are watching. Disappointed again. Non politicos I know said it sucked and both just sounded like their commercials. Another missed opportunity.

    Up through the convention, I was thinking “Damn…they are running one hell of a good, tight campaign.” But I don’t feel that way now. Too many of the ads are too non-specific. He is NOT winning the debates. McCain was not my candidate in the primaries. Yet, I will continue to fight. I will continue to volunteer and make phone calls up until 11/4. But I’m starting to prepare myself for an Obama win.

    I really really hope you are right and not getting my hopes up.

  • Spartan4Life

    Since Senator McCain won’t tell the American people who Obama is, maybe somebody else would do it for him.

  • David_Hinz

    remember, Hollywood controls what movies get made. The MSM controls what news is heard.

    I have been all over the Ayers — Annanberg — Rashid Khalidi — al Mansoor — Rezko — ACORN — Obama unholy alliance for months.

    The Minority Report and RedState have had dozens of articles documenting these connections. As long as the MSM continues to frame the news — there is little impact on the American voters.

  • OccamsRazor

    John McCain doesn’t telegraph his punches.

  • McPALINation

    I mean, am I just a foreshaDO-DO? Timing is everything, and the timing will have to be pretty sweet. I imagine we just have to be patient at this point, but that’s a tough proposition. You’re right: with the “Holy Sh__!” moment of the movie, otherwise, why not wait ’til it comes out on video? I’m so hoping that flick is starring the likes of someone like Jon Voight, though.
    I’d noticed some things that made me scratch my head, wondering if the whole country is just on paxil or what: Corsi/his book isn’t even ON drudge today, first I’ve seen the initials “F” and “B” and “I” strung together from any news source in a long while, and the Ayers story seems so far to just be funky-timed appetizer with lots of ACORNS on the platter, that you have to pick up and smell one-by-one. Stories like the birth certificate, medical records, videos of his bitter half, his pastor–everything that Hannity glued together (yea!)–I mean I fail to see how none of this stuff gets connected with a giant, growing ball of string, like you’ve indicated. Is it just me, or has it been mighty quiet in the Newt camp, and what about Pickens (?)
    –IF, this time, instead of something the size of a swift boat–like, say, an AIRCRAFT CARRIER is sitting out there in striking distance (and I fail to see how there cannot be with all of these loose threads and 3 weeks to go) just tell me to go make the popcorn, Erick.

  • bert2008

    After last nights debate I have been so down and dejected. I have real doubts the McCain campaign has the forsight to make this happen. They will have to do it without the drive-by media. It will be difficult to pull off.

  • toddsts

    Ayers Ghostwriter

    Via HotAir comments.

    Is this the non-surprise? It would be somewhat surprising if it turns out to be true.

  • anonn

    As the Huff Post notes here, McCain is proudly announcing support of Leonore Annenberg, the wife of Walter Annenberg, and the same Annenbergs whose name graces the Chicago educational board on which Barack Obama and William Ayers sat in the room six times together.

    So by the McCain/Palin smear logic, is McCain now associating with terrorists?

    Come on, the Ayers connection is far more tangential than McCain’s association with G. Gordon Liddy or his father in law, a convicted criminal. If you want guilt by association, how about Palin’s husband being part of a secessionist group who hates America?

    Why don’y you guys talka bout issues and solutions? Oh yeah, because you can’t. all you have left is smears…

  • aaronbg

    Has Annenberg ever set off a bomb on us soil? Has the AIP every said that they endorse the violent overthrow of the U.S. gov’t?

    The answer is NO!!!

    Ayers on the other hand, not so much. Still to this day he believes he didn’t do enough to incite the violent overthrow of the U.S. Gov’t. Do you even have the capability of seeing the difference between the two? I assume you don’t since you are probably filled with moral equivalence talking points. That is the problem with “radicalizing” the youth as Ayers would like to do….you end up with zombies, incapable of critical thinking, no thought just repetition of what they were told.

    Long live the Hitl…er… I mean Obama Youth!!!

  • securitymom

    You sound a little nervous to me. If McCain wasn’t doing something right here you wouldn’t want us changing the subject. Just saying…

  • Moe_Lane

    We must have gotten a link.

    Blam.

    Moe

    PS: And I don’t even like G Gordon Liddy. He’s a blowhard.

  • johnCV

    What about the implications (if not outright assertions) that an obama administration would bring:

    • wholesale voter disenfranchisment due to neglect by federal agencies? registering felons, votes for illegals etc.

    • a transfer of wealth that will eceed any in history in order to solidify the ‘base’.

    • Socialized medicine.

    • punishment of success.

    • the ‘fairness’ doctrine.

    • the contempt show by obama and his cadre of fellow travenllers for the American system and culture?

    • the subjugation of American soveriegnty to the UN or some other internatioanl body?

    • a cult of personality the same as used by such famous leaders such as Mussolini, Mao, Ho Chi Minh, Nasser, Chavez, Castro, Hitler, Hussein, Stalin, Pol Pot, Papa Doc, Kim Il Sung etc. Am I saying obama is the same as these dictators? No, but the parallels of population control are striking because they work.

    These are the ramifications of WHO OBAMA REALLY IS! The issues flow from the person’s philospohy and ideology – that’s why a candidates personal history and ‘mentors’ matter. All the more so when candiate is an utter lightweight with no history of accomplishments to judge by.

    We listened for 8 years that character doesn’t matter – anyone who STILL believes that deserves everything they will get.

  • stephenhalsey

    My question is how is anything going to get through the MSM filter. In today’s political climate, short of simply buying air time, there are precious few ways to get past the MSM and this year you get four, the four debates. And we’ve had three without one single mention of Ayers, or the CAC funded radicalism of Chicago education, or the Johnson/Raines Freddie/Fannie connection, or rabble-rousing for Alinsky’s group in Chicago, or being a lawyer for ACORN, or Obama’s Global Poverty Act, or his plans for a national civilian defense force, or comments about how his thugs have sought to limit free speech with the 527 Ayers ad 4 or 5 weeks ago or his brownshirts harassing that Chicago radio station a few weeks back,…the list goes on and on. All we’ve gotten from the McCain camp is a few mentions of Freddie and Fannie and three days worth of Ayers from Palin. They’re only scratching the surface. I’m not one for conspiracy stuff either, but with that much info to use on an opposing candidate and it’s not being used, either your campaign is weak and ineffective or the fix is in.

    So what if Ayers was the ghost writer for ‘Dreams’. I think if that’s it, then the average American who just saw their life savings plummet by 30% the last few weeks is going to say ‘so what’. I just don’t think you can let this stuff leak out and expect the public to connect the dots….not with the economy being the elephant in the room. I hope I’m wrong and I hope there is a smart bomb in the McCain arsenal. If not, we’re witnessing the Marxification of our great country right before our eyes. An Obama regime, coupled with a Reid/Pelosi Congress, would simply destroy this country.

  • McPALINation

    what is that, like “Al-Annon?” What color is the koolaid when you lift up your blinders? Blam!

  • anonn

    Annenberg started the board, on which Ayers and Obama served. So the association is the same as Obama’s to Ayers — maybe even stronger in that it was their named board. So if Obama is “guilty” of something, which is a huge stretch, so is Annenberg, and, by association, McCain. Just using your twisted logic back at you.

    So funny that you stated the following without realizing the irony:

    “you end up with zombies, incapable of critical thinking, no thought just repetition of what they were told.”

    Sounds like conservatives to me. Deny reality enough and y’all start believing your own realities.

  • anonn

    Look around. Shrub & Co. have already destroyed it. We need a Democratic Administration to restore things to budget surpluses and the US admired and respected in the world.

  • anonn

    All honest conservatives have finally admitted she is unqualified and in way over her head. Brooks just called her a cancer on the Republican Party and conservatism. It is the single decision that history will tell us started McCain’s slide to oblivion. As David Kuo Wrote:

    The next debate will be the most important debate of the campaign?yet neither Barack Obama nor John McCain will be present. The next debate is about what happens to conservatism after John McCain?s defeat in November.

  • PaRep

    Boy they are really Worried

  • stephenhalsey

    and by the way, nice of you to join us for the….

    PAST HOUR AND 43 MINUTES

    but that’s not the point. This mess started with the CRA of 1977 and groups like ACORN strong-arming banks to lend to people not qualified. Once again, government intervention in the market. No bank in their right mind would ever loan to those promoted by ACORN. Way too much risk. 43 didn’t help with the RX plan, his spending orgy and not using his veto pen for the first 7 seven years. But if you think a Leftist Marxist like Obama can restore this country to economic prosperity by taxing the very small businesses and people who drive this country’s economy, then they are feeding you some good drugs over at the DKook site.

  • MrSandman

    I don’t think they are worried much at all at this point.

    I wouldn’t be stressing too much either.

    PS….

    I find your repetitive KKK Krap belligerent and offensive. You are lowering the bar here. Please stop it.

  • PaRep

    Moe Clean up

  • denveratheist

    I certainly understand why you would want to hold hope for your candidate. Losing to a perceived lesser candidate is a complete drag, take it from me. That being said, I don’t think the GOP candidate or his team have anything up their sleeves that fits what the author is hoping for. It makes no sense to get behind in the polls then have a dramatic Bruce Willis moment at the end, especially considering the current appetite for standard politics in this cycle. The time for that sort of move was before the economy hit the fan. Sen McCain said himself that he saw this crisis coming two years ago, it seems like he would have worked it into his campaign somehow.

    I count my lucky stars that Sen McCain did not choose Mitt Romney or Mike Bloomberg to run with. Gov Palin seems to really fire up the folks that are hard core on the right, but not the independent voters. I appreciate the politics of her selection, but not the logic.

    I have read many dour comments on RS in the last 18 hours or so from otherwise fiery conservatives, not to mention the troll activity (a term I dislike) has slowed down dramatically on the lefty sites. Something happened last night that seemed to take the wind out of the sails of the people Sen McCain depends on to spread the message (one thing we have in common is the disdain for the MSM). It seems that it is at least possible that the GOP has run an awful campaign. A campaign so bad that even Jack Ryan or Bruce Willis can’t save it.

    Anyway, this is my first post and I expect to either get hammered or ignored. My hope is to actually discuss complicated issues without getting into the mud.

  • anonn

    All your points have been repeatedly debunked. See:

    Here

    Here

    Here

    Here

    Funny how we didn’t have problems from 1977 until all the financial deregulation, shadow unregulated banking world, and wacky financial instruments driven by the RIGHT.

    As for taxing small business, look at the reality of Obama’s plan, not the fantasy you WANT to be true. Almost all small businesses get no tax raise or a tax decrease in his plan. Does McCain offer something as good for the same folks. Impartial tax analysis says no.

    This sure is a weird site. I post details and you respond with fantasy rants about what you WANT to be true. I’m going back to the real world, Have fun here in your make-believe world.

  • Tatham

    If Ayers and Acorn is what McCain is going to be focusing on during the last 72 hours of his seriously flawed campaign, he’s going to lose by even more than the 9 points David Brooks is predicting.

  • Dave_in_Fla

    You seem to be under the misunderstanding that David Brooks has some level of credibility here.

    He doesn’t.

    But then, if attacking Obama using Ayers, Wright, Rezco, etc would improve Obama’s chances to turn a simple win into a full blown landslide with coattails and a mandate, wouldn’t you be cheering us on?

    I didn’t think so.

  • bs

    “Debunked?” By a bunch of liberal left rag sites? Right. Sorry bub, but that dog don’t hunt here. I have some Rush Limbaugh site references for you… would you care to read them? I thought not.

  • stephenhalsey

    but like bs said, those nutjob fringe sites haven’t debunked squat.

    Here’s how it works annon. Your One has said repeatedly that he will raise taxes on those making $250K or more…make them pay their fair share…patriotic even. I happen to work for a decent size regional company and I know the owners of this company make over $250K. These are all fine people, but let me tell you, when the tax hits the fan, these guys are still going to make their $$$ which means less $$$ in raises and bonuses to staff, if there is any $$$ leftover after they and the business proper pay your Marxist Chairman. This means less discretionary income for working people (translation for you Marxist:proletariat) to spend on cars, TVs, Ipods, not to mention college savings, 401K, etc. You think the economy is bad now? It will grind to a halt under this scenario.

    This is not fantasy, it’s reality. It’s how a free-market economy works. What’s fantasy is the socialist utopia you on the left believe in, everyone making $80K with a house and two plug-in hybrids in the driveway with two kids being indoctrinated in your leftist schools. That’s fantasy.

    And another thing, don’t tell me the CRA didn’t have anything to do with this housing mess. And it was Clinton that removed the barrier between the banking side and the investment side which created the environment for these exotic financial instruments. Bottom line is that the government and groups like ACORN were blackmailing banks that wanted to expand into their neighborhoods. No expansion unless they lent to the indigent population. These people weren’t buying homes. They were renting from the private sector, with the banks at gunpoint from ACORN and the government. It was tantamount to private financed public housing.

  • toddsts

    They all talk solely of the CRA, not a word about Freddie and Fannie being innocent, along with their Dem protectors in the House and Senate. Funny how these accounting scandals only resonate when the companies aren’t the pet projects of Dems. (Enron, et al.) There is plenty of blame to go around in this mess, but it certainly ain’t “all Bush’s fault”.

  • ilitigant

    It must be horrible, just simply horrible to be sent to the enemy to disrupt and ‘debunk’ and not have one clue about the real issues that are yet to be unveiled.

    You see annon…. I’ve been ‘noticed’ but I do not have a gag order so I could tell you things you could take back to your handlers and get all gushy about, but the thing is, if they are at the right level, they already know them. You don’t.

    You have been sent to spew disregard and disrepect and are I see, having a grand old time doing it. (Oh heck for all I know he’s probably gone already.)

    But you do not know the truth. You do not know what is going to befall your kind. You do not know.

    I do.

    It should be eating you up before you find out for a fact what ‘useful idiot’ really means.

    OK I’m done with the complaining.

    No i’m not. Watch the videos at one of the sites linked below.. Its all out there if you could only see what is, and not what you want to be.

  • casel21

    I agree (and hope) something is cooking.

    I find it hard to believe that a man with a military education and background does not know something about misdirection and surprise.

    I can’t believe that McCain doesn’t see the danger to his country in electing Sen Obama.

    Finally, other than Achilles, I can’t believe that anyone could be so vain and prideful as to subject his countrymen to live in a socialist hell as revenge for some real or imagined insult.

  • Lords86

    then drop it. This “there’s going to be a big October surprise” has been advertised every four years and with the exception of the 92 disclosure of Cap Weinberger’s indictment, with due respect, they have all been a bunch of hoooey. While I appreciate the tantalizing aspects of this information, I really don’t know what it is I am supposed to be all excited about — far too cryptic to be worth much concern at this point. Tell me I am wrong, please – would love to be wrong – but give me something to be wrong about, not more spectulation.

  • CK_MacLeod

    …but I remember very well, from a couple or few months ago, McCain at a press conference explaining that he expected to be and remain an underdog, run mostly behind, then sneak ahead for the win in the final days.

    Pretty high-wire strategery – but that’s kind of who he is I guess…

  • youthgrunt

    You are bringing up the issues that are implied by the allies that Obama has. But those implications are not obvious to the casual observer. They need to be brought up specifically. They are not issues of Obama’s “judgment”–they are issues of his philosophy.

  • James_Reynolds

    actually read the article. It was Acorn ho abused the 1977 act into intimidating the banks to lend money to undeserving people. No regulation in the world have stopped this. Oh yes there is closed down ACORN repeal the CRA and let banks pick who they trust to pay it back.

  • Tatham

    I AM cheering you on. That’s why I’m here.

  • stephenhalsey

    What exactly was this diary about?

    Was McCain simply unable to connect the dots?

    Were all of the dots not uncovered?

    Other?