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EDITOR OF REDSTATE

We Must Keep the Democrats Under Sixty

By: Erick Erickson (Diary)  |  October 15th, 2008 at 09:21 AM  | 

RESIZE: AAA

It is no secret. This will not be a pleasant election for Congressional Republicans. It just won’t be. But we can and must work to minimize Democrat advantages. The best way to do that is to keep the Democrats from getting sixty seats in the Senate.

Mitch McConnell, Elizabeth Dole, Norm Coleman, and Saxby Chambliss need our help. I’ve got issues with each of them. But I’d rather them than any of the Democrats running against them.

If the Democrats get to sixty seats, there will be no compromise. There will be card check, there will a return to partial birth abortion, there will be a host of leftist programs enacted into law.

We cannot let that happen.

McConnell, Dole, Coleman, and Chambliss are our firewall to stop the advancement of the left.

Click on our Slatecard box and help these four today.

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COMMENTS

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  • Swamp_Yankee

    Sununu actually WROTE Fannie/Freddie legislation and is running on it. Poor John being thrown under the bus. It thought everyone wanted to attack Fannie/Freddie

  • ocleverone

    I am sad to say, I don’t think that Gilmore is going to pull off Virginia, no matter how hard we work at it.

    There was a damning video from Mark Warner slamming homeschoolers, NRA and the Christian conservatives shaping Virginia and it has made little dent in Warner’s campaign.

    I keep working and I keep praying that he can pull this off.

  • stshores24

    …unhappy about Chambliss, but there is no way I’m voting for a Democrat, and voting for the independent is like voting for the Democrat. So it’s ‘lesser of two evils’ time again, until someone better than Saxby Chambliss can run next time.

  • Dave_in_Fla

    So now we are playing prevent defense, are we?

    I’m going to post a diary to illustrate how the other side feels right now. I suggest you read it Erick, because your pessimism is going to become self fulfilling.

  • PaRep

    DJ Drummond on serial poll cooking & numbers to back it up

  • ocleverone

    The things that keep me going is that Gilmore has come from behind before and

    When George Allen was running for Governor, he won after being down in the polls by 32 points.

  • Mr_Green

    Do Democrats need all 4 seats to get 60? That seems really unlikely no matter how bad next month goes. I know Dole is in trouble, and Obama’s ground game in Minnesota might narrowly help Franken win on a good day, but I dont see Chambliss or McConnell losing.

    BTW what about Smith and Wicker, are those still competitive races?

  • TxCon

    our only chance to stop the Socialist train. I still think Stevens can win in Alaska, Colorado may still have an outisde shot. But the four you mentioned Erick are crucial.

  • Erick

    No offense Dave. I understand where you are coming from and I appreciate your enthusiasm.

    But I’ve been running campaigns for more than a decade. I talk to people on the ground constantly. I know what the internal polling is in a lot of these races.

    We’re going to pick up a few seats, but we’re going to have a net loss. How bad it is depends on what we do about it. There is a fine line between being realistic and pessimistic. I don’t think I’ve crossed it.

    But then I don’t want a bunch of suicidal conservatives come November 5th who are shocked by what happens. I talked to a guy this weekend who is convinced we’re going to pick up seats and win the White House. That’s not the real world.

  • Dave_in_Fla

    But I do think you have crossed over the line. The panic button you are pushing is having the opposite effect and delighting the opposition.

    When our side scans the headlines here and sees “We have to limit our losses so we don’t drop below 40″, then that sends a very clear “It is all over, don’t bother showing up”, message.

    I don’t have access to internals like you do. I can only try to make some sense of the public polls that are very “odd” this year. Do I see is losing seats? Sure. Do I see an unmitigated disaster? Hell no!

    As a mental exercise, take those internal polls you are looking at and add in the 5% shift toward Republicans that we got in the last week of the 2006 election. We went from a guaranteed loss of 30 seats to a loss of 19. That shift protected 11 seats for us, and likely ended up being the difference on things like FISA.

    Do those internals still show a disaster, if the 5% shift occurs this time?

    Look if the country is socialist, then we are screwed anyway and no amount of work will save us. But if it isn’t, then maintaining the right attitude, especially as our leader here (and on TV) becomes critical.

  • Erick

    I read that and think we better go vote to make sure we don’t get below 40 seats.

  • gamecock

    within the next three weeks. Agreed? Polls have never not changed in the last three weeks and I too have been intimately involved in every presidential campaign since 1980 and have successfully managed two congressional races.

    Now, I don’t consider your column to be glum. All I hear you saying is that we need to make sure and keep the dems under 60 in the senate.

    However, I am amused by the concern to prevent Nov 5 SHOCK!

    Is Oct 14 SHOCK less suicide inducing? smile

    You see, I take a different tack.

    Fight hard to the end! And I don’t suggest at all that you don’t. But I just have such vivid memories of being ahead in polls as a dem so many years, only to know and see realized by beleif that we would lose. We did, and the polls didn’t change until 72 hours before our losses.

    just saying

    And I wouldn’t worry about anyone being shocked. Who cares.

  • freddyfucer

    with such illustrious rino senators such as Susan Collins and Olympia Snow still in place, it won’t matter – they’ll probably only need about 58 or 59 seats, since some Republicans just have this sickening need to “get along”.

  • melpol

    The polls forecast a Democratic landslide.
    Republicans have to get used to the idea that there are different strokes for free folks. There will be the loudest celebration in our nations history after Obama is elected. My live in girlfriend will have an abortion for the celebration.

  • janis

    that we have allies we never had before? Are the internal polls taking this into account? While it may not affect down ticket races, I would bet that it will affect the Presidential race.

    This election season has been such a long strange one that it is really difficult to know what to think about things that used to be reliable predictors.

  • Mr_Green

    n/t

  • stang

    .

  • Common_Cents

    No matter what the score(polls are phantom scores anyway) play hard until you hear the whistle blow.

    Playing prevent D now, to keep the other side from running up the score is a losing strategy. Especially when the stakes are so high in real life.

    Grow a pair and get back to the fight. If we do lose, you’ll have plenty of time to complain.

    Play hard to win until the whistle blows. That’s all you can do.

  • marfan

    If Stevens wins but ends up in the slammer, then what?

  • Swamp_Yankee

    so it would stay “R”

  • Swamp_Yankee

    so it would stay “R”

  • Achance

    if Stevens resigns or is refused seating in the Senate.

    Murkowski killed the goose by appointing Lisa. The process was changed by citizens’ iniatiative to require an election unless the opening occurs very close to a regular election.

    Stevens will probably be convicted of being a Republican if nothing else. There’s a reason they chose those particular charges; they could try it in DC where being a Republican is a crime. I don’t think he’ll step down if convicted until he runs out of appeals. If the Ds are feeling cocky enough, they might refuse to seat him though.

  • JSobieski

    Some minor modifications to the first paragraph:

    “It is no secret. This mnay not be a pleasant election for Congressional Republicans. One cannot know for sure what will happen, but at this point its doesn’t look great. In the face of troubling news, we can and must work to minimize Democrat advantages. The best way to do that is to keep the Democrats from getting sixty seats in the Senate.”

    Same sense of urgency. Same sense of reality.

    Less defeatism.

    One of the great moments in American history resulted in the following quote:

    “NUTS”

  • JLenardDetroit

    as with the cancellation of the TV program Jericho, that brought the “NUTS” lexicon back into America’s consciousness, we need to send bags of them out.

    Question is, do we send them to OUR side (candidates, current rep’s, etc…) as a symbol of the Fight on our side and to not give up?!?! or do we send them to the other-side as a symbol we consider them NUTS? that we are saying “NUTS” to your (Socialist) plans for our country? and/or varying themes in that regard?

    Obama BinBiden = kick to our Nuts if elected

  • TexasGringo

    There’s supposed to be a verdict before the election. If he’s found guilty, I cannot imagine him winning. If found not guilty, he should win going away.

  • Pentagon16

    Seems that just a few weeks ago Red State had a blaring siren announcing 10 hours before the announcement:

    “Tim Pawlenty is the GOP VP Nominee”..

    So maybe Dave has a point in not taking “sources” on here as the divine word of the lord..

  • izoneguy

    n/t

  • JSobieski

    Its a rallying cry, an act of defiance, and an accurate characterization of Obama’s collective statements on economic policy

    NUTS!

  • SIConservative

    Democrats will carry Colorado, New Hampshire, New Mexico and Virginia. That gets them to 55. I also expect them to win Alaska (which is a lock if Stevens gets convicted) and Oregon. I would also agree with many who say that Dole’s dead already. They also have a chance at Mississippi-B (Wicker) and an outside shot at Maine, where Sen. Collins still has a big lead, but, at least in public polling, Allen has cut the gap in half to about ten points. If Collins falls, though, I expect that it would only be after the Democrats had enough to pass 60 already. Democrats probably need three of those four to get to 60.

    For what it’s worth, I’d say that Georgia would be the tipping point, with Minnesota being 59 (the eighth most likely seat to fall) and Kentucky being 61 (the tenth most likely seat to fall). As I think Coleman will probably lose, though I’m not nearly as confident in that assessment as I am that Dole will, I’ll be watching Georgia most closely to see just how bad things are on election night and whether the Democrats hit their magic number.

  • olsmithie

    I think people should be reminded that Senator Dole co-sponsored the bill to overhaul FannieMAe along with Senator McCain.

    Her opponent, folks may remember from Rosie Odonnell’s anti 2nd Ammendment parade in North Carolina, marching along with Rosie.

    Regards