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EDITOR OF REDSTATE

The Trends

By: Erick Erickson (Diary)  |  October 17th, 2008 at 07:11 AM  | 

RESIZE: AAA

I’ve been saying privately for a few days, and to a number of you on email, that my sense was a shift back toward John McCain. Today’s Gallup poll, along with a host of other polls, shows that.

Here is the safe rule for this election: ignore the numbers, but watch the trends.

The trend had been toward Obama. It is now toward McCain. Joe the Plumber resonates with people. ACORN resonates with people. People are concerned and worried about the future. As a result, at this point in the campaign, these ancillary issues have a real impact.

Be encouraged, but also be realistic. It does take a while for these national trends to show up at the state level. Likewise, hundreds of thousands of people, if not millions, have already voted.

Nonetheless, there remains an election. It is not over. It was never over. We know where we stand. We are behind. But the wind has shifted in our favor.

Game on.

Update: A reliable friend tells me some of the swing states are starting to show the same trend. Likewise, Georgia appears now secure for McCain and Saxby Chambliss.

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COMMENTS

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  • stephenhalsey
  • PaRep

    so it doesn’t matter they were going to vote for Obama no matter what these “UNDECIDEDS” still can’t decide who there for let alone vote early OBAMA IS TOAST !!!!!!!!!

  • swami7774

    …the hundreds of thousands of fraudulent votes that have been. and will be, cast for The One. There’s no way for polling to account for that.

  • Brandozilla

    was tied yesterday too, with a little wind at our back it goes easily red.

    The problem areas right now i think are virginia, colorado and florida.

  • IndependentfrMI

    Maybe this will be the Oct surpirse.
    I would love to see a repeat of the Reagan election.

  • bigfoot

    Strikes me as interesting. If McCain is pollig so bad in swing states, why has he been spending time campaigning in MN, WI, and PA.

    I suspect McCain’s internals show a different ball game than the “in the tank media’s polls!”

  • weave

    This time yesterday the front page had a (now deleted) promoted diary declaring the election was over. So if you want to talk trends, the past 24 hours has been a big one!

  • Brandozilla

    and if obama’s internals showed he was safe there, why would he be there so much?

    I can’t believe these Obama numbers here in pa. Up 12? No way, maybe 6 or so, but i would wager it is closer then that.

    I live in a very rural area, but this town is covered in McCain-palin yard signs.

  • jonathan_pujals

    that now that McCain’s poll numbers have improved–and both candidates are in a dead heat–that the MSM is already spinning that “the one’s” Likability numbers have improved (or remained constant), while McCain’s have gone down. They are also touting the numbers for Who Is More Likely to Improve the Economic Picture as being in “the one’s” favor. They simply cannot abide the fact that McCain is gaining and their candidate is still unable to close the sale.

  • Strelnikov

    In one of the longest editorials they have published recently, the WSJ is clearly afraid that America is about to shift – mainly out of disgust with W. Bush – to the Left, causing a drastic realignment a la 1933 or 1965, with another costly expansion of government which will not be rescinded, and will have to be somehow absorbed into the culture socio-politically and economically.

    http://online.wsj.com/article/SB122420205889842989.html

    Among the disasters planned by Dems under Big Brobama, assuming that a leftist “supermajority” also follows him into power: hearings to punish businesses for the “meltdown” and to exculpate Dem leaders like Dodd and Frank and Pelosi; unions returning to the good old days of forcing workers to join; health-care run by the FedGov from cradle to grave; further deterioration in public education under the guise of fairness and phony progress thanks to the teacher unions…

    The tone is grim, but apparently meant to whip the conservatives into action in the final weeks.

  • Southpaw75

    BHO still up 4 in that one. I was hoping to see another point movement for McCain. Also, a new MO poll out has BHO up 6?? Sheesh, if Mac can’t take MO, it’s certainly over. I find it hard to believe there has been a 12+ point swing in MO.

  • capitalist_dave

    Here are some things to ponder on a crisp, fall day:

    1) See the daily Gallup numbers from 2000 race here. For most of mid-late October, Bush maintained a significant lead, even up to 13-points. Well how’d that race turn out? Lil’ close?

    2) The same country that elected W twice nearly elected Gore and Kerry. The pendulum ALWAYS swings a little election to election. 1992 vs. 1994 is a great example.

    4) Sometimes the electorate must be given enough rope to hang itself. “Oh, you want to try a one-party government and hard-core socialism? Sure…” I live in Massachusetts. I know this well.

    Liberty for all!

  • olderthangandalf

    More than most elections, turnout is going to be a huge variable in this election. Compared to most years, there has been a lot of activity in groups that normally don’t turn out in really high numbers – African Americans, college students, etc. The big, unanswerable (until election day) is whether these groups will actually turn up at the polls and vote in line with their registration numbers. In prior elections, they consistently have not, but there’s the sense that this year might be different.

    On the flip side, there’s the issue of whether Palin will cause a larger than expected turnout among rural, social conservative voters that previously had seemed to be lukewarm about McCain. These are voters that put Bush over the top in 2004 based on their showing up at the polls in incredible numbers but who had been discounted for 2008.

    I’m guessing McCain’s guys – and Obama’s guys – are all over this. And I’m guessing that the McCain folks think that turnout among African Americans in particular, and young voters to a lesser degree, will indeed be substantially up this year in a way that will affect which states are winnable. I think they also believe that if they work it they can get a good turnout from the social conservatives that can offset that.

    The trick is to get a big social conservative turnout in states where you won’t be swamped by the countervailing turnout from the Obama favorable demographics. Doing this, you hope to pick off some states that are normally Democratic to offset some Republican states you might lose given the turnout issues.

    Hence, Minnesota, Wisconsin and Iowa, all states where McCain Palin has spent what otherwise seems to be a foolish amount of time and money. These are states with relatively low African American populations and large social conservative populations. The goal must be to get a big turnout and turn those states around.

    Compare Michigan, a state with a big social conservative element in parts of the state, but with a massive African American population in the southeast quadrant that will determine the election if turnout is big. It looks like McCain Palin decided it just wasn’t going to work if African Americans turned out, no matter what, and they seem to be expecting a big African American turnout.

    As for Pennsylvania, it’s just a close state. There’s a lot of Pennsylvania that’s not Pittsburgh or Philly, and a lot of people in those areas socially in sync with Palin. It’s also a big state with a lot of electoral votes. It’s a struggle, but if McCain gets a big turnout, it just might be doable. It will take some movement locally and nationally to get the numbers close, but it is a rational state to contest.

    The turnout factor also explains why McCain is still saying things in debates that will excite the base, but not attract independents so much. If you think the big variable is turnout, not independent voters, it’s rational to try to excite the base even in venues like late campaign debates.

    Assuming, as I do, that the McCain people are rational and intelligent there is an obvious negative implication in this. Even in years with a big social conservative turnout, the states McCain is focusing on are tough states for Republican to win. That he clearly considers them his best chances suggests that his views quite pessimistically his chances in other states that have gone Republican in recent elections.

  • alchemist17

    but I honestly don’t think that these “new” programs would make all that much of a difference. The old entitlements we’re stuck with and supposedly have absorbed culturally were never absorbed economically – they are not sustainable, and the bills start to come due very soon.

    Rather than reform and shore up the entitlement programs to make them sustainable, politicians have expanded them with full knowledge that they were borrowing against the future. The supposed “trust fund” is a bunch of IOU’s (treasuries) that the government maintains to balance the books when the spend the surplus. Once the surplus stops growing (which is likely in the next four years), money needs to shift back into these entitlements, money the government doesn’t have.

    Soon we will need to confront the looming entitlement disaster, and I suspect we’ll find that all options come to the table once the public realizes just how significant the problems are.

  • msteinkrau

    I don’t think Obama will get more legal votes there, but Missouri is probably top 3 in the country in places I think Voter fraud happens.

    We’ve seen it time and time again, where a Republican looks good, and then all of a sudden there is a couple of precincts left in St Louis, and they just keep pumping out Democrat votes until they have enough to win

    It even happened to Hillary who had the lead all night. The networks declared her the winner, because there was no way there were enough votes left for Obama to catch her, and then suddenly St Louis starts throwing tens of thousands of votes in all for Obama, and they keep coming until there is just enough to put him over the top. And honestly I think if Hillary had won Missouri, she’d be the nominee today

    it is just a dirty, dirty place. Judges keeping polls open until they can print enough votes to steal the election.

  • Jack_Savage

    It looks like there is a storm brewing besides the economic one – voter fraud, unsavory acquaintances and Dem culpability for the subprime meltdown are beginning to resonate with voters, who are finally paying attention and putting two and two together.

    The electrifying effect of Sarah Palin is hard to account for, and the bile directed at her only reinforces my belief that she was a game-changer.

    I actually watched a portion of Olbermann’s foul little show last night only because it was so fascinating to see him sputter and meander like he was. SOMETHING has changed, and he knows it.

  • Southpaw75

    Same thing happened to Claire McCaskill when she won.
    The only thing that contradicts these recent MO polls is the fact that as far as I know, Obama hasn’t scheduled any campaign events there. You would think if he were in the lead or even tied, he would spend some time there.

  • PaRep

    Becuase they know just like Sarah Palin he is having a Devastating effect

  • Hammer2008

    Latest Battleground poll for 10/12-16 has trendlines running toward McCain/Palin. This is not even a full post-debate poll…

  • swami7774

    …shows an unmistakable trend)

  • swami7774

    ..you beat me to it, Hammer!

  • swami7774

    But maybe it deserves two postings.

  • eburke

    that they have a footnote stating that starting in early October, they will no longer include the results of partisan polls.

    So the question is, if you’re eliminating polls affiliated with the campaigns….why are they still listing the CBS/NY Times, McClatchey, USA Today/Gallup, and LA Times/Bloomberg polls?

    Just saying…. :-)

  • PaRep

    But they are Libs so they think that the Drive By Media is fine

  • olderthangandalf

    1) Joe the Plumber hit the public consciousness in the third debate and these polls all were in the field prior to the debate. Whatever impact Joe had, it’s not in these polls. If Joe’s really going to help McCain, it will show up in a few days.

    2) It’s too early to tell whether the Gallup poll is an outlier or signals a new trend. Could be either. In that regard, DailyKos’s own poll showed the most recent day’s data to be much better for McCain, but the sample of one day is too small for that to be statistically reliable. Most people would expect the race to tighten in the final weeks, but no one really knows.

    3) The polls may be more than usually unreliable this year. No one really knows what turnout is going to look like this year. Gallup is giving out two numbers – one that shows traditional levels of turnout and one that shows greater turnout based on registration numbers, expressed intent, etc. The second number is a couple of points more favorable to Obama. (The two point result is the first, traditional turnout number.) No one knows how that is going to go. Beyond that, polls rely on reaching people with land line phones. A lot of people, especially young people, don’t have land line phones anymore, and no one really knows what bias that factor and the various corrections for it inject into the numbers. More than most years, the only poll that is going to count is the one on election day.

    4) The impact of the tightening race is more likely to be felt in the House and Senate than in the Presidential race. For McCain to turn it around would be beyond Truman, because he’s way down and still looking for a message less than three weeks from the final election day. For him to get all the way there would be astounding. If he gets close, however, it could help some marginal House and Senate candidates to get over the top.

  • eburke

    that McCain is behind (but not hopelessly so) and that we have to redouble our efforts, but did have ya noticed that (with the exception of the ‘normal’ Gallup poll), the ‘non-partisan’ partisan polls all show his holiness with a substantially larger lead than the more independent, reputable ones?

    Nah…on second thought, it’s a coincidence. What was I thinking?

  • Conservative101

    reliable friend at the RNC that all states with early voting are enjoying a RECORD GOP turnout. Not some, but ALL the states. McCain has an excellent chance at this. The conservative majority is rising up to combat the election stealing socialists, and we WILL prevail. The msm will of course miss this completely as they are focused on obama. I can’t wait to hear the excuses on election night and watch the anchors crying their eyes out that McCain/Palin have won!

  • eburke

    Obama leads by 13 in the under 40 group, McCain leads by 6 in the over 65. This year may be different with the Obamamessiah on the ballot, but historically speaking….hmmm, who is the most reliable demographic age group on election day?

  • eburke

    and you’ll see that the 9 point swing came primarily not from undecideds but voters switching from Obama to McCain.

    That welcome news is tempered, at least by me, by the logical portion of my brain saying that’s an awful big swing in less than a week so…which numbers are off – the 13pt lead or the 4 point lead?

    Anyway, I’ll take what I can get.

  • PaRep

    Know, Watch where both campaigns go & don’t go

  • johnt

    “Voters sour on McCain, Obama holds steady”. Is this what a news organization has come to, fantasy and desperation in place of what used to be reporting?

  • PaRep

    BG took out their Political weightings & it has been all over the place since

    There have been 3, 5 point moves since they did that 2 for Obama & 1 this week for McCain

    I think taking out the political weightings is what is making this poll erratic OOOPS I used the Obama campaign word LOL!!

  • PaRep

    44% Obama 42% McCain hahahahahaha

  • ContraMundum

    “AP/YAHOO Poll of 873 Democrats; 650 Republicans shows OBAMA 44%, MCCAIN 42%…”

    Praise the Lord!

  • pwest

    I wrote earlier last week that one of my former students, working for McCain in VA is leaving for MO on Oct 31 and won’t come back until the 5th. VA is fine, but MO is shaky; voter fraud in and around St. Louis.

    I live in Alabama and read in the newspaper today that at least three counties, maybe more, have more people registered than are eligiable voters. If fraud can happen in one of the Redest states, it can happen anywhere.

  • PaRep

    .

  • pwest

    some conservative Democrates switching back, or some Republicans who were tempted early on by his blank slate now realizing Obama is new or different, he’s the same or much worse than most liberals.

  • pwest

    forgot!

    When you’re more radical on abortion than Hillary Clinton, then folks you’re a radical.

  • Marcus_Traianus

    It may be hard for citizens to conceptualize or understand the intricacies of a candidate?s economic policy. Overall, that makes initial voter opinion on who could handle the economy better, all the more curious.

    This also makes voter proclivities on the subject fleeting, topical, obscured by anxiety and ultimately extraordinarily changeable.

    McCain has all along had a better plan for this economy, led by the basic premise increased taxes and more government expansion will be cataclysmically disastrous.

    “Joe the Plumber” has substantially altered perception of Obama as economically more capable. It shatters his illusion that somehow the middle class will benefit from his policies. It also reinforces a simple truth that Obama’s “tax cut” is nothing more than a welfare program for those who do not pay taxes today. It is grotesque class welfare and borderline Marxist, un-American policy.

    That Obama has beguiled American’s with populist rhetoric this long is now found to be extraordinarily insulting. The epiphany came with his telling response to “Joe”. It foretold American’s of a vision where their productivity would be punished, dreams of a better life somehow morally wrong and charity to their neighbors inadequate and better controlled by an Obama administration.

    Nothing Obama states could be more revealing and detestable to our countries citizens. It speaks of a man who wants to use our weakness and vulnerability as a means of detestably stealing our freedom and dreams. From this perception, he will most certainly never, and should not recover any citizens? trust.

    Hence, we now have a concerted effort to attack Joe” personally; to discredit him and make another enemy of state in the despicable Marxist tradition. Joe, who metaphorically represents us all, will not go quietly into the night. This will not be far from any persons mind come November.

  • septembergurl

    This poll is of LVs (I think) and has 873 Dems, 650 Reps, which I break down as 57% Dem and 43% Rep (no Inds). You would think that Obama would do a little better than 2 points, no?

    We are 19 days from the election, and as Erick says, the trends are turning in McCain’s favor.

  • PaRep

    It, I can go through all the reason why he will lose, BUT just look at the amount of “UNDECIDEDS” with a LONG drawn Primary between Obama & HRC & all the ads he’s run & the General Election & all the ads he has run & the Pornographic coverage from the Drive By Media what can Obama say or Do in these last days to convince them To vote for Him??????????????

    NOTHING !!!!!

  • speciallist
  • drjecdo

    Here?s all you need to know:

    Since 1988, the largest party ID differential for any election – that includes 2 Clinton wins, the Rep takeover in ?94, the Dem takeover in ?06 – has been Dem +4 in ?96.

    Every election Dems think THIS will be the year that all those winos, homeless, and college students are going to vote, and it hasn?t happened yet. Some day it may (possibly ?08), but I have no reason to believe that this will be the year. Remember, all those newly registered voters were unregistered for a reason – THEY DON?T VOTE! I would assume any other national poll with a Dem advantage >4 is likely suspect, and needs to be adjusted at the point of consumption.

    Ohio:

    The Ohio Poll – the most accurate polling service in Ohio – which has projected Election Day winners in 34 of 34 statewide contests polled since ?94 has McCain +2 in Ohio using their usual model. All other polling services give Obama a lead anywhere from +2 to +5. I?ll believe The Ohio Poll – based on track record – which suggests that the other polls are 4-7 off to Obama?s favor. The question is, “Does this reflect polling in other swing states?”

  • c17wife

    endorsement then.

    Via Drudge, Politico’s Mike Allen has a story up about Colin Powell going on MTP this weekend. Scuttlebut is he will endorse Obama. If he does, we will all know why. And it ain’t Obama’s ideology.

    Will this matter? Who knows, but McCain should be ready to counter with a big ad buy with all his military/ambassador types standing behind him.

  • PaRep

    He is & has been for awhile an empty Army Suit & empty Civilian Suit

  • Strelnikov

    While shrugging at the Bradley Effect, Rasmussen gave some advice on how McCain should have countered Big Brobama’s claim that the economy today is as bad as 1932.

    In fact it is not that bad at all, not even close: it might be as bad, Rasmussen said, as Carter’s economy, and McCain should have pointed that out and then given his prescription for a Reaganesque revival.

    He then went on to predict that Obama would win – right now – but that many variables were still difficult to predict, mainly 18-30 turn-out.

    He had not much to say about why the Dems – *who control Congress with a 9% approval rating *- are so confident about getting a supermajority, except that the voters blame W. Bush more than the Dem Congress.

    The mystery continues!

  • LizVBronx

    I can’t take this stress anymore! We must win! When I begin to speak my husband stops me and says “This isn’t about the election, is it?”. Go JMac and SP!

  • pwest

    I teach history, and since I’m a Christian first and a Conservative second if I’m gonna indoctrinate I’ll move folks more toward Jesus, but as far as politics go, I try to teach foundational pricinipals and not indoctrinate, like many of my Liberal Liberal Arts co-workers.

    Anyway, back to the young vote; an interesting think happened in class yesterday when a student asked me about what McCain meant when he said he was a Federalist in the debate, and from there things got very interesting.

    After I explained about sharing power between the states and the fed, and that for the most part McCain felt like decisions should be made on a local and state level, we moved into other topics. We happened to be covering Hamilton’s plan to deal with the war debt and the National Bank and examined it in today’s light. You know what happened: a teachable moment. I was able to make my students see that while they may vote liberally they live consevatively. I asked: if you let someone barrow money from you and then you don’t pay them back, will you let them barrow more. Everyone said hell no; I said ok, if you’re neighbor said pay my rent/mortage for me, what would you say? They said, hell no get a job. Then I said, why are we allowing people who people to barrow money they can’t possible payback, and then offering to bail out those who lent the money and even pay the mortages for some of these people? You should have heard the silence.

    They got it; just like they get Joe the Plummer. All we have to do is break it down.

  • PaRep

    Horrible this election cycle to boot

  • izoneguy

    …the leftist has no killer instinct. They think they do but they don’t. Actions speak louder than words. It was Bush who pushed the surge, even against the advice of his commanders.
    Bush has the killer instinct and that is why the leftys don’t like him. Do you have the killer instinct?

  • pwest

    Obama is not new!

  • Brandozilla

    would have an affect. However we need to remember that Colin powell donated the max to mccain in the primaries, he never gave a dime to Obama.

    Also his son works for the McCain campaign.

    I’d say he is at least as likely to endorse mccain as he is obama. Anyone saying otherwise is simply speculating.

  • Western

    I agree that turnout is the unknown variable for the pollsters.

    If McCain/Palin are able to turn out the strong conservative base, they will have a probable shot of winning the election.

    I trust conservative turnout more than younger voters or even African-American turnout in the swing states.

    The McCain internal polling must have results that are unknown to the public.

    If any event, I am somewhat perplexed that Obama can even get the Democratic votes that Gore and Kerry received in 2000 and 2004 respectively.

    I believe blue-collar Democrats may swing to McCain or may not even vote. Obama’s handlers like Axelrod and Co. should be concerned.

    But, who knows.

    It is been frustrating because I have been following the polls orchestrated by the MSM–hopefully my conservative brethren can see through the MSM bias.

  • joe6pack

    you hope us average Joe’s will save the party. but yet you mock us. it is no wonder the working men are defecting.I’m still here.

  • c17wife

    Mike Allen used as his source for the article. So, who knows. I am aware that Powell’s son works for McCain.
    I honestly don’t know what to expect. Powell has got to tknow how horrible Barack would be for the economy. I do think Powell has some resentment towards Bush and the GOP though.

  • pwest

    his magical mystery tour continues in his half hour commerical to the nation. He’s gonna calm everyone down and assure them he is not a radical socialist and that it is ok to vote for him.

  • TxCon

    down ballot elections mean as much as the Presidential one. So please go vote for the GOP, no matter what state you live in.

  • speciallist

    Hey …about your Diar……..errrrrrrrr…..comments, bring them as comments..

    ..from now on your Diaries will be 3 paragraphs or longer…ok?

  • aaronbg

    Speciallist is glorifying the average Joe as the hitman who will take out Obama with their votes.

  • Brandozilla

    Powell has said when a nation is engaging in war, every resource and tool should be used to achieve decisive force against the enemy.

    That is the antithesis of Obama’s Iraq policy. Powell has to recognize that mccain has fought to do just what he described.

    i think his gripe is with bush, he’s been pretty close to mccain i think, and stayed close.

  • DrJeff

    with that big of a difference in the weighting, then O’s toast!

  • DrJeff

    with that big of a difference in the weighting, then O’s toast!

  • Swamp_Yankee

    McCain is just hammering PA. They are finally leaving that region to head out West, but have deployed Cindy and Rudy for a couple of big rallies.

    Their campaining in PA has been relentless. I dont see it in the polls, but I hope it pays off.

  • bigfoot

    PaRep, you are dead right. Internal polling, I believe, dictates where the strengths and weaknesses of each campaign. I think McCain’s campaign believes my state of MN, WI, and PA are very much in play!

    The fact the Obama isn’t in Missouri tells me something.

  • PaRep

    because the Media won’t let it happen & look where McCain & Obama are living Pa. Wisc, Minne, Ohio

  • pwest

    what if, what if, do we dare to think about the possibility that if McCain is really picking up steam, and pounds hard, he did a good job last night at the Al Smith dinner, the next 19 days, that maybe, he’ll have coattails.

    What a devistating day for Oberman, Mattews and all the rest, if McCain not only wins, but the dead Republican party manages to pick up seats in the House and not lose as many seats in the Senate.

    Do we dare dream that big?

  • kowalski

    Even though you’re angry at me, C17Wife, I’ll give you my two cents on Colin Powell and any putative endorsement of either candidate, recapitulated from a conversation I had this morning. I’ll work from finish to start:

    Conclusion: He will explicitly endorse neither candidate.

    Reasons:

    1) It violates the Powell Doctrine. By endorsing Senator Obama, Colin Powell would put himself into a situation where he would go down in history as a former administration member who openly and very publicly repuidated both his party and his former boss in one of the most consequential elections in history. There is no Exit Strategy once he has made that statement.

    2) Powell doesn’t need to, despite the enormous pressure that the punditocracy is bringing to bear. Colin Powell will be a respected figure and elevate himself to the echelon of “elder statesman” by not making a personal investment by advocating for either candidate. Instead, he will remain someone that both sides can credibly call upon for advice without the baggage that goes along with an official endorsement. It’s a very smart career move if Powell remains “Switzerland” on the question of who should be the next President.

    3) Colin Powell doesn’t need to support a Black candidate for President just because of the melanin in his skin cells, or because people are bringing pressure to bear on him because of that. My sense is that Powell would rather be known as a trusted counterparty for both of the major political organizations in the United States, not someone who tipped the Presidential race to one side or the other.

    4) Just because the Politico wants eyeballs, and people have been speculating about this for months, parsing his every word and the kind of eyeglass frames he’s wearing, is really nothing more than cultural noise and spin. Powell can very adroitly sidestep the entire issue and not tarnish his reputation with either party by simply letting the spinmeisters twirl in the breeze.

    5) The ire Powell would really earn by not endorsing Barack Obama would be the ire of the loony left. Who does he stand to make as friends if he does? John Cusack? Naomi Klein?

    I think not. I think as a former Sec.State and a Chair of the JCS, Colin Powell doesn’t particularly mind the far-left hating him, so their continued ire really doesn’t mean all that much to him, and their friendship would be pretty repulsive in any case.

    6) Colin Powell has always sought to maintain his independence and it just strikes me as out of character for him to go on Meet the Press and throw his considerable heft toward one side or the other in this election.

    So there’s my rationale. Powell will be erudite, he’ll be sharp, he’ll be critical of both sides, but he won’t endorse either. He’ll be one of the Elder Statesmen that emerged from the Bush II Administration and have the international and local independence and clout to back it up.

    It’s not a failure of judgment, nor is it a betrayal: it’s the next rational thing for Colin Powell to do as he cements his place in history as a kind of Solomonic figure.

    My $0.02.

  • bigfoot

    I know Gallup is using various methodologies and publishing the results of each. However, has anyone looked at the internals of the other polls showing a tightening.

    Are weighing democrats in the same high numbers. If so, wouldn’t that mean Obama is in major trouble?

  • Swamp_Yankee

    I think we have hope, but McCain has two stops in NC, two in MO, one stop in VA this week. Plus Sarah is in Indiana today. Can’t win if you cant see the playing field accurately.

    There are subtle biases in the polls. But we are playing way too much defense in red states. I think it’s Obama’s money and the saturation ads. Hopefully that wears off.

    But they are seeing something in PA.

  • bigfoot

    this doesn’t portend good things for His Highness!

  • bigfoot

    polling was not very good. He might be right this time, but I think he’s weighing dems too heavy. Not as much as others, but several points.

  • MikeO

    If true, then the crack-up is coming any day now.

    That One is going to Queeg himself into a padded room on the national stage.

    “Guys, I mean come on. I just answered like eight questions.”

    I’m going to keep a quart of strawberries in my icebox until it happens.

  • richterm

    It’s pretty much a mix of ex-NJ people and native PA folk.

    There is one house in my neighborhood that has had the same Obama sign for months.

    Over the past month, more than a dozen McCain-Palin signs have sprung up. No new Obama signs have appeared to counter them.

    It feels SO GOOD to be a swing state and know that I won’t be wasting my R vote, like I did back in NJ.

  • Fermi

    The models these pollsters are using to predict likely voters are all wrong. The is a huge ground swell of new/returning voters on both sides with blacks pumped up by OB and folks that are tired politics as usual energized by Palin. I think this race is much closer than the MSM wants us to believe.

    If we all think the OB is preordained to win this, then we won’t make as big an effort to show up on election day. OB does not have this wrapped up. We all have to keep the fire going for 20 more days.

  • StrongProud

    VoteVoteVoteVoteVoteVote!!!!! In the 2000 election, 101M voted. In 2004,121M a 20% increase. Kerry was ahead in most polls before the 2004 election. Who won!! This election should top 2004 numbers! My point! Voter registration fraud(democratic gain)estimate is 1M plus which is 1% of 2000 voter turn out! Difference between 2000 voter turnout and 2004 is 20% or 20 million voters! Republican/Independent voter turnout is critical to nullify the fraud! I have stated all along in this election, that I “firmly” believe that the polls have been and are currently skewed! My reasoning, common sense, what has BHO done in this election to deserve these numbers? He has lied or flip-flopped on about every issue he has talked about! Not raising taxes, offshore drilling, gun control, Rev. Wright, Ayers, acorn, etc. The American flag pin and pledge allegiance issues are disrespectful to our country! His behavior pertaining
    to giving Hillary the finger
    during the primaries and the lipstick
    issue with Sarah Palin is sickening! Lastly, voter registration fraud,
    pollsters change in internal systems
    (pollsters removed voter history and
    party affiliation in this election,this
    means who are we sending surveys too?
    Send survey to a large urban area and
    who does that favor? If you have voter
    history on the system then you can send a survey to known republicans, democrats
    and independents in an “equal” amount!),
    and the “bradley effect” have a huge
    effect on the current polls!! November
    4th should yield the “truth” as long as
    McCain/Palin supporters turn out in large
    numbers!! Independent and veteran for
    Mccain/Palin.

  • kdubs

    I just spent a good bit of time reading the entire results as linked from Drudge. Beyond the 2-point spread with the ridiculous weighting, the questions on personality attributes for each candidate are HORRIBLE for Obama. A majority thinks he’s not strong, experienced, an effective leader, or bi-partisan. Ready to be President? A plurality says no. The only thing he’s got going for him is that he’s refreshing (seriously a question) and will work for the less fortunate. I think you’re looking at a 4-1 break in undecideds for McCain, and a solid popular and electoral victory if this poll is to be believed.

    Of course, I was the same person saying that polls couldn’t be believed last week, so what do I know.

    Now I’m waiting for better state polls!

  • pwest

    I think Palin’s job is to rally the base. I expect her to be in a lot of red states as well as close blue states with a lot of conservative Democrates.

    It may of been you, but someone on Redstate said Palin is the GOTV for the GOP! I agree with that.

    Indiana may be closer, as maybe Virgina, but in the end they will be RED.

    MO is the one I worry about because of fraud. Ohio, the SCOUS turned back the lower ruling, that worries me as well. Having said that, I still think Ohio is Red in the end!

    But the American public is hearing about the fruad, so maybe it will motivate eveyone to Turn out, Turn out, Turn out!

  • PaRep

    did some math?. with the GIGANTIC weighting, assume that all D?s and R?s vote for Obama & McCain. Also assume any indies are leaners and split 50-50 O & Jmac?

    ?..for this poll to be ACCURATE, with its 57% DEMOCRAT weight??.

    the ?real?, unweighted numbers, if GOP & DEM turnout is equal, is:

    MCCAIN 56%
    OBAMA 44%

    ???.and that?s assuming ALL HILLARY PUMAS SHOW UP AND VOTE FOR OBAMA

    MACMENTUM!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

    battleoflepanto1571 on October 17, 2008 at 2:32 PM

  • Rod_Patrick

    A WSJ article,
    Some Surveys Indicate Tighter Presidential Race has a very good insight of the poll results (Oct. 13-15):

    wsj article

    From the above, those poll results with greatest lead by Obama come from the liberal Obamedia that run 24-hour support and commercials for their favorite candidate. In the article, * Mr. Zogby has clearly identified the MAIN ERRORS of these “outlier polls*”:

    “What troubles me is when I see some of my colleagues have 27% of the respondents that are Republicans. That’s just not America, period.” * says Mr. Zogby, whose polls have shown Sen. Obama with a lead ranging from two to six points this month. *He argues that while party affiliation fluctuates over time, it doesn’t change “day-to-day, and it never fluctuates by eight points in a short time period.”

    Nevertheless, the trends are now in favor of the McCain/Palin ticket. In short, this election can still be won.

    LET US CONTINUE THE FIGHT!!!!

    As per Erick advised, let us donate and volunteer!

  • Tamblin

    -nt

  • Tamblin

    538 looks at that poll and finds it has a few problems:

    You may never have heard of the AP-Yahoo poll before. This is for good reason, since a look at the fine print reveals that it’s not really intended for its horse race numbers (the AP uses a separate agency, GfK, for those).

    For one thing, the poll is not timely. It entered the field on October 3 — two weeks ago — and left the field on October 13, which was this Monday.

    For another thing, it’s an internet-based poll

    For a third thing, it has no likely voter screen, and the horse race question does not even appear to have a registered voter screen … it’s a poll of all adults.

    post is here. The second point isn’t as valid as the first two since it isn’t an internet poll in the sense you would usually use the term. 538 has the details in the post linked above if your are curious.

    Research 2000 and Battleground have legitimately showed movement to McCain, if you are looking for good news that’s your goal.

  • Herodotus

    That sample sounds off.

  • furious

    …Gergenize himself?

    Horrors.

  • oneman

    There may be time left and maybe the state polls will start trending towards McCain. Looking at the RCP map, if McCain won every remaining battleground (not counting the leans) he would still lose. Pull Virginia out of Obama’s lean column he still loses. I think for McCain to win he needs more than a trend, he needs a tidal wave. Anything is possible I guess. It couldn’t hurt if he started spending more time in states that he had a better chance in. Get out of PA and hit Ohio, Virginia, NC, and Florida.

  • thatone08

    too many republicans have either decided to stay home or vote dem at this point. The number for the new registered voters in PA alone show 479,000 new dems to a negative 38,000 of republicians.

    He has pulled out of too many states to even make a squeaker for him to win. The map looks horrible for him. He has been beat on the issues, and all the ammo he has, is what he called, “a washed up terrorist” and the plumber theory.

    I suspect if the DOW drops again(which it will) it will be in the bag for Obama.
    As far as turn out goes, George Bush and the Iraq war has pretty much GUARANTEED a very high turn out among disenfranchised republicans, african-americans, and college students/younger voters.

    Past party preformance(Katie Couric interviews, scandals), the debates, and the economy was the final nails in the coffin for ANY republicans campaign. No matter who the nominee was going to be.

    This year, no republican seat is safe….

  • MikeO

    Given the rampant ACORN registration and voting fraud, the integrity of the vote is too questionable to guarantee that an Obama/Biden “win” will result in a legitimate Obama/Biden administration.

    Shame that, eh? Especially after eight years of incessant BDS.

    Sow the wind; reap the whirlwind.

  • 29Victor

    Boink!

    Consider thyself boinked.

    Holy smokes. You sound like you work for the MSM. The same MSM (and polls) that said that Reagan wasn’t going to beat Carter..

    Or…you sound like a plant. Maybe a Obamadhendron? This second theory is more likely, since you registered here just to make that one, depressing, anti-Republican-vote-getting-out comment.

    Of course there’s no reason tht you couldn’t be both.

    *Conservatives: * If the libs were so sure that they had things locked up they wouldn’t be wasting their time making comments like this one.

  • thatone08

    Ok…then why did he waste money in three states that quickly turned blue, and wasting even more in states that Bush won in ’04? Why is he “playing defense?

    These are not talking points; its actually happening. It happening in VA, NC, NM, WV, etc.

    Can you give a better explaination of whats going on, or are you going to provide another acrobatic spinning trick that you are use to?

  • thatone08

    I’ll let the special prosecutor decide what is and what is not….

  • thatone08

    No im not a plant.

    Just bored.

    or…

    Maybe i’m just seeing if you guys now “hope” this garbage actually works. I didnt say anything about winning. I just stated that Bush guaranteed a high turn out, thats all.

    Hmmm…

    Are you paranoid?

  • 29Victor

    That I am used to?

    Wow. So in this short time you’ve looked back at all my posts and decided that I’m used to “acrobatic spinning?”

    Or is that just a lame attack?

    The point of my post wasn’t that things aren’t looking bad for McCain. The point was that you’re a downer. And either:

    A) You’re a downcast conservative, disheartened by recent polls who should buck up and not let the bastards get you down.

    or

    B) You’re one of the bastards and your sole purpose for posting here is to dispirit conservatives to keep them from voting in November.

    Is that straightforward enough for you? I could dumb it down a bit more, but I wouldn’t want to be too condescending.

  • MikeO

    But keep in mind that there are only three possible outcomes:

    1. She gets this squared-away in time for the results to be trustworthy, we have a fair election

    2. She doesn’t get this done in time, but McCain/Palin win, and it’s not an issue because only democrats cheat

    3. She doesn’t get this done in time, and Obama/Biden “win” and we get the mother of all crises

    I doubt there is enough time for the first outcome. I’m hoping for the second outcome. The third will be interesting.

  • 29Victor

    …you’re a moby that got called out.

    And I’m not being paranoid. We see a lot of you around here.

    When you’re bored you post long comments on conservative blogs about how miserable the Republican turnout is going to be this year? What an odd hobby.

    If you’re just bored. Hey! Have you heard of YouTube?

  • Tim_Schieferecke

    Instead of the Italian mob, they’re a bunch of granola crunching lily livered pansies that use class warfare and race baiting for their tommy guns. They’re also much more dangerous for our country then the Italian mob ever was; more dangerous exponentially.

  • thatone08

    no, I dont have to look back at your post to tell me anything about how or what you post. I could look at that one post to read that last sentence:

    “Conservatives: If the libs were so sure that they had things locked up they wouldn’t be wasting their time making comments like this one.”

    and tell that you pull some amazing spin out of your arse.

    As far as lame attacks go, you “conservatives” better come up with some new material. And quickly. I dont think the plumber thing will resonate with the majority like you think.

    And you still have not explained those “blue red states”….

    LOL

  • speciallist

    Is Dkos getting to lame for you?

    Why are you here…you’re not very persuasive..

  • thatone08

    yeah, I have an account with that site. not interested in that right now. Just thought I’d come here to see if the conservatives would actually follow the “Hillary Doctrine”.

    and with no surprise, they are. you would think after a long primary season, conservatives would come up with a better way to make something “stick”,

    or

    Atleast be ORIGINAL enough to actually come up with policy proposals that works for the majority of Americans. But no. The best they could come up with is a 1960′s radical(terrorist) in the last month of a presidential election, in the middle of a financial crisis. Oh yeah, and ACORN. pbbbttt please.

    You would think that Rove would come up with something GOOD by now, but I guess not….

  • speciallist

    bring them…

  • 29Victor

    Mission accomplished.

    And he’s admitted that he doesn’t even read the comments he replies to.

    Discussion ended.

  • speciallist

    n/p

  • thatone08

    dont visit the KOS, but thanks for reminding me.

    As far as me being persuasive, im really not trying to be. Just tying to figure out why you think the way that you do.

    And like I said before, I’m here because i’m bored.

    Honestly, do you think you could be persuaded at this point? On a blog post?

    and if you are a soldier, thanks for serving.

  • speciallist

    n/p

  • thatone08

    here is site that I particularly enjoy….

    http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/

    check it out. I’m pretty sure that you guys maybe familiar with it.

  • thatone08

    thatone08 October 18th, 2008 at 2:52 a.m. CDT (link)

    here is site that I particularly enjoy….

    http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/

    check it out. I’m pretty sure that you guys maybe familiar with it.

  • thatone08

    obama is calling for an “special prosecutor” to investegate the recent accusation of voter fraud. Dont know how well it will play out.

  • 29Victor

    Sometimes you can just smell them.

    Actually, after discovering his true colors, his initial post actually did my heart some good.

    In it he pretty much admits that if Democrats win this time around it won’t be because the American people agree with their policies or beliefs, but because Americans are so angry at Republicans. According to him if Dems win, they win by default.

    In this I agree with him. In my lifetime the only times Democrats have been elected president were when a Republican president has done something to really, really tick off voters (and in G.H.W.Bush’s case, his own base).

    American are, essentially, conservative. Democrats can only win when Republicans let them.

  • speciallist

    n/p

  • thatone08

    what that mean?

  • speciallist

    n/p

  • thatone08

    so doesnt McCain have something up his sleeve to stop this?

    or

    is he going to continue to pollute the air with his bull$hit?

  • thatone08

    is there something about the site that you didnt like?

    :)

  • 29Victor

    You’re done.

  • speciallist

    Let this fool DROP down….

  • speciallist

    You should go retread and come back…bye!

  • thatone08

    c’mon guys!

    dont end it so quickly!

    you must have visited 538.com and seen all that blue stuff!

    dont get so discouraged!

    but I’ve had fun though. thanks for a very entertaining night.

    spec – 4 and vic, you’ve been great, and good luck!

  • thatone08

    why did he pick sarah palin?

    she had to be the worst pick in U.S. vp selection history!

    ha!

    did he even vet her? you must admit that she is the mini-me of bush….

    lol!

  • MichaelBDR

    Although the trends during the last 2 weeks will be towards McCain/Palin, Junior Senator Obama has a 30 minute commercial/speech he will be airing a few days before te election. This is a tactic to alter the historic trend of the elections in the past towards the Centrist candidate. He will use his honey tongue to make the voters swoon over him and enrapture them for the time it takes to get them to vote and they come back to their senses. Be wary of this. McCain/Palin need to pump out ads over the weekend prior to the lection after his speech in the hopes of breaking his spell.