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EDITOR OF REDSTATE

Seen those trends?

By: Erick Erickson (Diary)  |  October 29th, 2008 at 08:52 AM  | 

RESIZE: AAA

The polls narrow. And the McCain campaign claims ownership of the last 96 hours of this campaign season.

In fact, among undecided voters, the largest portion is now solidifying who will get the vote. And the Obama “spread the wealth” stuff and the LA Times video suppression are just helping ratify minds as the polls narrow.

Here’s what’s fun. Let’s assume the worst case scenario. Just for a minute. Here we have a situation with undecideds breaking for McCain, the media vetting of Obama beginning after the election, and a whole host of people who voted for Obama asking “WTF?” That helps us long term tremendously.

But let’s look at the best case scenario. We can a delight on election day as the undecideds break decisively for McCain, carrying him and Sarah! across the finish line. We’ll have a lot to savor. Good times people.

One way or the other, we know this: the trend has headed toward McCain at the same time the media and the McCain camp have finally gotten around to raising key questions about Barack Obama. Because of the failure to vet Obama early, those questions will continue after the election whether he wins or loses.

And both scenarios are ripe for our advancement as the seeds of doubt get sown. America won’t tolerate an unrepentant lefty in the White House. The Obama camp and media have gone out of their way to cover up who Obama really is. Whether we win or we lose, we’ll make sure the public knows the truth about what the media and Democrats did during this campaign.

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COMMENTS

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  • kudzu630

    We need a full court press… rather McCain needs one and to hit him hard on every front of his socialist agenda. From guns, to Israel, our national defense, our nuclear deterrent, social programs, domestic policy, he does nothing but repeat tired old socialist lines wrapped in that tasty pig in a blanket known as “change”.

    The polls are trending toward McCain and that’s a good thing but the RNC and McCain needs a little kick in the ass to light a fire under the spending wing of this party. We can viral video all day long but it won’t matter to the dolts who can’t find useful stuff on YouTube… and we need those dolts. As Glenn Becks says, this is the election of the idiots…

  • c17wife

    will probably undo all the gains of the past week.

    Between the infomercial sob stories, Charlie Gibson AND Brian Williams giving him softball interviews today and Bubba on stage with im tonight, I think McCain’s fate will be sealed. Barring some David vs Goliath type happening, Obama is going to run out the clock and then when the schtick hits the van after the election, we’ll just be stuck.

    I’m trying to be hopeful, but I see NO flickers of light.

    In the meantime, I just keep praying, and praying, and praying some more. I don’t know what else to do from over here.

  • LizVBronx

    I agree with this trending. Why do you think the One and the Two are encouraging folks to vote early (and often, as my husband likes to add)? So they can get these votes in before the sh*t hits the fan; why else? I hope this tape gets out tonight or tomorrow.

    Remember that grand columned acceptance speech? The hightlight of the convention; remember how it was totally overshadowed by the Palin announcement the next day.

    I feel the same thing is going to happen now.

    Gird your loins!

  • pwest

    you keep on praying and let us over here do the heavy lifting for once.

    You’re right; Obama is on TV all day, but the fact that he has to do a 30min infomerical tonight is not a good sign for him.

    Who will watch: the Obama faithful; I’m not so sure many others will.

    Keep the faith, keep praying, and for the rest of us: all of the above and Turn out, Turn out, Turn out the vote!

  • red_oakster

    so I can’t be as pessimistic as you c17.

    However the next 72 hours are the time nasty surprises happen. The Weinberger indictment in 92 and Bush 43′s DUI in Y2K helped the Democrats turn the trend. So I need to check my optimism too.

  • Raven

    Then you know it’s BAD for Obama.

    I managed to catch a couple minutes of Larry King last night and ended up staying the whole show. The ENTIRE show was about how Obama is a socialist.
    Larry King didn’t personally make the accusation, but he had no guests who even tried to refute it. And several who did say it.

  • jonathan_pujals

    as much as I’d like to, I cannot agree with you. Why would the MSM start to vet him now, when they have studiously avoided doing so for the past 18-months? The fact that 1-or-2 stories are beginning to turn up at this time, says nothing about the 100s that are still out there. You also cannot ignore the positive spin the MSM continues to spew, even if they DO report on some of these so-called “new” stories about “that one”. They certainly don’t want to tarnish their nominee for 2012 if this one doesn’t go the way they want.

  • Mayhem

    I think McCain got sucked out with the “tide” during the Market Meltdown last month. However, the tide is starting to come back in, as evidenced by the narrowing polls. The only question is whether the wave will hit shore by next Tuesday.

    Let us pray.

  • LizVBronx

    undecided voters. These stories will affect them. This is what we want to happen. It is getting late for this, I admit, but there is still time. Just too many nagging itches about this guy…

  • Oz

    The trend is there and the polling seems skewed (so maybe Obama +3 is really a tie), but will we get there or will we mark this election down like 1976 where we say that if only we’d had one more week, we could have won it.

    C17wife … I too am in prayer. It’s a two parter …. one asking God to remember certain things in Scripture and the ills of our country and a second part letting Him know that I will accept His will and pray for whoever becomes our next President.

  • ZootSuit

    This might cause me to watch his show for the first time ever!

  • Dave_in_Fla

    Don’t get uptight about it. The half trillion he already spent on advertising is working against him. He can’t tell anyone anything new in his 30 minutes.

    He actually did this too late, if he had done it last Thursday, it had a chance of helping his campaign. But the trends are locked and voters have all the information they want now.

  • madlaw1071

    While I am hoping for the best I respectfully disagree with the premise of the OP. The LSM is hardly vetting BHO at this point. Where is the drumbeat besides FNC for the release of the LA Times video? Where are the satellite trucks outside Ayers house? Where are the microphones being shoved in BHO’s face asking whether he really does believe the Constitution is flawed? We all know the answers. And if he is able to run out the clock, none of the issues raised will ever see the light of day. The LSM will focus on just how wonderful it is to have a black president, etc. etc. They will focus on the destruction of the Republican party etc etc. Within 6 months the “Fairness Doctrine” will be imposed, ending right wing talk radio. More than likely, Rep. Markee will introduce a bill to regulate(tax) internet content. This will be the beginning of the end. Gosh, I hope I am wrong.

  • ReaganConservative3

    The media, liberal as they may be, always try to save face, and a few vetting stories coming out this week will allow them to say when the sh*t hits the fan that it was not their fault. If the one wins, he will have a list of who’s been naughty and nice, and we need to buck up and fight for Fox News and our talk radio brethren!

  • red_oakster

    like the Weinberger indictment or the Bush DUI. I just hope we make it through Friday on that score.

  • MrMosis

    Is the same reason the polls are tightening. They are sobering up as the day draws near, realizing that their finaincial success is still to some degree linked with their credibility. Things won’t look too good if it becomes apparent to all that the drive-bys have sat on all this stuff up until that point.

  • ColoKid

    down to +3 today. A week ago, he had Obama by +8. Margin of error is +/-2 points. Wonder if he’s still working with that inflated 40-33 Dem-Rep turnout model.

    The media love to give state by state polls showing Obama wih huge leads, especially in Ohio and Florida. Remember that state polls lag nationwide polls by several days. The state polls haven’t yet had time to catch up with the narrowing nationwide polls.

    Obama’s faithful base will certainly tune it to watch his TV speech tonight. But to truly guage the efficacy of his speech, listen to see if the networks give his Nielsen ratings. Expect at least moderate ratings, but if you hear little or nothing about the ratings, that probably means he’s toast. Personally, after the Rays-Phils game is over, I’m going to watch reruns of The Simpsons.

  • Taniwha

    Well, if O is who I think he is (and if he loses, he isn’t) then praying ‘for’ him isn’t going to help him or us. If he wins, pray that his 42 months go by quickly.

    Taniwha

  • MuskegonCritic

    I don’t think you have to be too worried about the TV spot.

    As an Obama supporter I’m a bit concerned the TV spot will be received as overbearing, especially as it interrupts the World Series Pre-Game.

    The Kid is ahead, better to stay the course. But I suspect he feels he needs to hammer home his message, and get above the chatter about people “not knowing him.”

  • ZootSuit

    Then you are either very stupid or quite insane. Or both. Seriously, do you really think Barack Obama is the antichrist?

  • madlaw1071

    alot of people do. I dont think he is the antichrist in the religious sense but he will certainly undo our way of life.

  • Republicanuck

    As least he’s not an unrepentant Marxist. And he would actually make Biden look brilliant as VP.

  • madlaw1071

    I will add 1 HUGE caveat to my earlier expressed pessimism. The LSM is always torn between ideology and profit motive. If the major media polls tighten to within the margin of error, joining Rasmussen, TIPP etc. then its possible they will adopt a new meme and call the race too close to call, trying to create suspense and ratings leading into Tuesday night. Of course, they wont call it a McCain surge, they will call it latent racism or the effects of McCain’s negative attacks or both. The MSM loves a horserace so it will be fascinating to watch their desire for ratings clash with their desire for BHO to win.

  • MuskegonCritic

    It’s important to keep this stuff in perspective. The polling has been flat for a week.

    McCain seems to be tightening up in a couple national polls today, a la Rasmussen. Though today he’s down in Florida, Ohio, and Pennsylvania.

    I don’t discount the fact that McCain could be closing in with the polls. There are plenty of Undecideds out there and they could all swing for McCain and hand him the presidency. That’s a fact.

    But overall the polls have been flat for a week. Some crazy highs for Obama, some crazy close polls, too. But it’s all overall averaging at between 5 and 7 points in favor of Obama. McCain will need to improve his standing in VA, OH, FL AND nab PA in the next 6 days. Can he do it? Yeah! Is he moving the needle? Maybe. Has Obama been consistently capable of crushing McCain’s assaults for the past few months? You betcha.

  • phred

    the current “vetting” is so much better than what Hillary was flinging. Top-of-mind awareness now is the most affective.

    Remember, undecideds by definition, have not voted early!

  • PaRep

    Why hasn’t this 1 week wonder be Blammed Yet ??

  • leftylurker

    He’s not fronting like he’s someone he’s not.

    And it is true. I can’t count the number of times I’ve heard people on this site say that the polls don’t count.

  • Moe_Lane

    NT

  • reggie1

    MSM is finally getting off their arses to get on record with some of Obama’s arrogance. CNN is talking about a broken promise for funding his campaign publicly, and WaPo is talking about the plethora of illegitimate campaign donations. Why in the #3!! aren’t McCain/Palin connecting the dots today, and telling audiences that Obama doesn’t care where he gets the money to fund his agenda, so obviously he doesn’t care how much he’ll take from you and me.

  • leftylurker

    I don’t have enough toes for this!

    Perhaps I’ll hire someone to register me some fake ones.

  • Dave_in_Fla

    He has to stay on point. The sideshows are damaging enough to Obama that he doesn’t need to help.

    The final week is the time to wrap up everything into the final impression you want to leave with the voter. He is doing the right thing.

  • PaRep

    .

  • PaRep

    & your Great Great grandparent’s too

  • finaljeopardy

    I skipped the Great Race Speech, too, because I knew it was just hooey. He only made it to get himself off the hook when voters finally paid attention to his church. Of course, McCain stupidly made that off-limits, so now it’s racist to point out that BLT is a Marxist, humanist doctrine.

    What do you think Rev. Wright and Obama were talking about all those long nights spent in earnest over the kitchen table. A good guess is “spreading the wealth.”

    What does William Ayers focus on in his faculty job in education? Wealth redistribution. That’s what he and Obama set out to accomplish with the Annenberg Challenge. They spread $150 million around to their friends, and Chicago public schools saw no improvement. But the students all believe in economic “social justice.” That our government is oppressive.

    I wouldn’t be surprised if at some point during this 30 minute broadcast on THREE major networks, there was a big pinwheel swirling on the screen as Obama intones, “You are getting very sleeeeeepy. Listen to my voice. When I count to ten, you will awake as if nothing happened but remember that rich people make $40,000 a year.”"

  • Taniwha

    because he will want to get right to work. As to insanity, we’ll see. But he is definitely the first candidate with his own false prophet who has declared him the messiah. Go ahead, but I won’t bet my soul on Farrakhan’s veracity. And since Obama didn’t even deign to deny it, there is only one other possibility. Me, I’m not chancing it.

  • reggie1

    I hear you. But I think the polling gap is tightening BECAUSE of these stories, and I think the message can be underscored with the media’s unwitting help

  • Jill1066

    I partly agree with MrMosis. The “vetting” is happening now because it’s the last point in time that they can get “credit” for having “informed” the public without having much time for this to actually sink in and negatively affect Sen. Obama. I think it’s possible the MSM mis-timed this for their purpose since it does seem to have been sinking in already.

    Plus Madlaw1071 has a point – the media likes an exciting horserace story that will drive up their ratings during election night.

    I’m actually starting to be more hopeful again that the polls are skewed and Sen. McCain has a decent shot to squeak through. Sen. Obama is undoubtedly in a better position since he doesn’t have to run the tables as Sen. McCain does, but it is striking to me that Sen. Obama has not “closed the deal” with so many structural advantages in his favor.

  • MichaelBDR

    The trends are not an accident, nor are the last minute disclosures of Obama problems. All of the things the McCain camp has under their belt on Obama will come out now. During the last week of the election is when people pay attentions to things. Anything out before now would be forgotten or marginalized by now. Disclosure now will make it fresh in the minds of people when they vote.

  • Dave_in_Fla

    The side shows are providing additional info, but they are just filling in the gaps and confirming what people learned in the final debate. It takes that long for information to be processed by the electorate.

    This is why tonight’s infomercial is potentially such a waste of money. It is too late to provide information that helps a voter decide to vote FOR someone. Probably enough time for info to vote against someone though, if it is bad enough. Would explain why the McCain campaign is calling for the LA Times to release the tape.