« BACK  |  PRINT

RS

EDITOR OF REDSTATE

Where the RNC Chair’s Race Stands

By: Erick Erickson (Diary)  |  January 26th, 2009 at 12:00 PM  | 

RESIZE: AAA

There are two men at the top of list for RNC Chairman: Mike Duncan and Katon Dawson. One of them will be the next chairman.

I’m not saying this because I want them, though truth be told I’d be happy with either. I’m saying this because I’ve been surveying RNC members and people on the outside. It seems very clear this is where we stand.

In third place would be Saul Anuzis with Michael Steele nipping at his heels. Publicly, Steele has more endorsements, but Anuzis has stronger support among undecideds.

Ken Blackwell has failed to gain much traction and Chip Saltsman has failed to gain any traction.

My understanding is that Mike Duncan and Michael Steele are in the process of cutting a deal. If Duncan cannot get enough strength to get an outright victory or at least victory on the second ballot, he may swing his support to Steele. Likewise, Michael Steele is said to be amenable to the idea of throwing his support to Duncan on the second ballot if Duncan gets close on the first.

The wild card is Dawson. Many of the conservatives I’ve talked to intend to throw their support to him on the second ballot if Blackwell does, in fact, go down. This too leaves plenty of room for Saul to jockey in for position if a third ballot becomes necessary.

We can be pretty sure right now that at the end of the week we won’t see Blackwell or Saltsman in the Chairman’s office. As the week goes on and more shifts in voting occur, I’ll try to update with where things stand. Today though, pay attention to Duncan and Steele.

Tags: , , , , , ,

COMMENTS

POSTING RULES  |  LOGIN TO COMMENT  |  REGISTER TODAY
  • http://www.hakubi.us/ Neil Stevens

    Of the men on the list, he’s the one coming off of victories. That counts for something.

  • http://www.erickerickson.org Erick Erickson

    And honestly, though I’m a part of Rebuild the Party, I’m actually glad he did not run out and embrace it. That he has his own ideas is refreshing.

  • TxCon

    with Mike Duncan. We kept McConnell and Boehner? Can we not have at least one fresh face instead of plodding on with this losing triumvirate?

  • St_Louis_Conservative

    Except for the 12 committeemen and state chairmen who have endorsed him, along with the CA Republican Assembly, the Tenn Republican Assembly, Steve Forbes, Pat Toomey, Phyllis Schlafly, the Family Research Council, Morton Blackwell, and a host of other conservative grassroots organizations.

  • http://www.erickerickson.org Erick Erickson

    When I say he has failed to gain much traction, I’m meaning among the 168.

    I think he is the best choice. I hope they vote for him. But I’m also trying to be objective about it. Having surveyed the 168 committeemen, he is not getting the traction he needs.

  • St_Louis_Conservative

    Blackwell has RedState’s endorsement as well.

  • St_Louis_Conservative

    However I think the country club thing will be an issue. I can see the DNC ads now…”GOP chairman belonged to a club that wouldn’t admit the president of the USA!!”

  • http://www.erickerickson.org Erick Erickson

    But I think he’d be a great chairman.

    What the race seems to be boiling down to is this:

    The status quo guys are looking to Duncan and the “change” guys are split between Anuzis and Dawson, with Dawson having more of them.

    Steele and Duncan seem like they’ll cut a deal.

    All I know is, I hope whoever becomes chairman keeps Cyrus around — the e-director.

  • mikefisk

    …as a tech geek, more than a few sites I frequent are having all sorts of jokes at Dawson’s expense over his (seeming) failure to grasp modern technology. While not an absolute requirement that the chairman needs to know these things (at least should have some people around him who do), it is making it a lot harder for the GOP to get the message out amongst the tech-savvy, many of whom would see Dawson as an antagonist, not somebody they could work with.

  • http://www.hakubi.us/ Neil Stevens

    In fact, and I think Patrick Ruffini has hit on this lately, it might be better if he doesn’t. We don’t want the use of new technology to be compartmentalized. It needs to be part of a unified outreach and activist effort, tied in and prioritized, not segregated and tokenized.

    If Dawson is ready to delegate the tech to technologists, and the strategy to the strategists, then we’re doing well.

  • mikefisk

    The GOP may have its technologists, but it will make things that much harder when the perception from the next generation of technologists is that the party is oblivious, or even hostile, to their world of expertise and knowledge. Like it or not, Dawson has become a punchline to those whom he will have to work with one day on outreach efforts.

    Even if he gets the party’s tech ship in order, it may have inadvertently mobilized many in the next generation against the party.

  • http://www.hakubi.us/ Neil Stevens

    *Let* them misunderestimate us. If Dawson will do the right thing, a bunch of smug idiots online matters not a bit.

  • Martin Knight

    Maybe I should have a check and see if I have the Midas touch in reverse.

  • AceInTX

    From what I’ve seen and heard in Conservative outlets that I frequent, Blackwell is the pick of most of the Grass Roots conservatives following this race and Duncan is dead last with many uncomfortable if not out right opposed to Steele.

    I don’t know enough about Dawson to render an opinion and Saltzman has always been a non starter from what I’ve seen.

    So…if we have a party leadership who is supposed to represent us who have the number one person, (Blackwell) supported by the grass roots all but dead last and the one person everyone not in the RNC leadership opposes, (Duncan) as the number one or two cutting a deal with the guy many of us distrust because of relationships with liberal Republicans, (Steele) what does that say about our prospects going forward…

    I’m not a quitter when it comes to Conservatism but I’m increasingly asking myself why I’m a republican and why I should continue as a delegate and contributor to the sham the Republican Party has become!

  • bc3

    If the GOP was a smooth running machine, I would be all for Duncan. It isn’t so i’m not. I live in Michigan and the state GOP is on life support, so I don’t want Saul.

    It’s sad to see that Blackwell hasn’t gained more traction.

  • Scope

    I couldn’t agree with you more. The way I see it, if Duncan gets the position, he is going to have to fightoff much negativity before he even can start with accomplishing anything. He would be starting from a negative position, as too many will view him as the Chair that was there when we lost so many seats in 2006 and 2008. It also won’t help him much to be attached to the fact that he was chosen by Bush/Rove. No one except a very few will excuse the fact that his hands were tied during the Bush years, as well as during the failed McCain campaign. Also, I doubt that he will be able to raise much money for the RNC. He sure couldn’t do it in this past election season, why will that change.

    As much as I support Blackwell, and it seems my conversations and perceptions are similar to your’s Ace, in that Blackwell is highly regarded by the grassroots, I had a feeling that his conservatism would not sit well with the growing middle of the roaders. Or as I see them, those that don’t have strong principles. A principle is a principle because it works everytime, if there are exceptions, then they are not principles.

    How sad for the party!

  • Scope

    I couldn’t agree with you more. The way I see it, if Duncan gets the position, he is going to have to fightoff much negativity before he even can start with accomplishing anything. He would be starting from a negative position, as too many will view him as the Chair that was there when we lost so many seats in 2006 and 2008. It also won’t help him much to be attached to the fact that he was chosen by Bush/Rove. No one except a very few will excuse the fact that his hands were tied during the Bush years, as well as during the failed McCain campaign. Also, I doubt that he will be able to raise much money for the RNC. He sure couldn’t do it in this past election season, why will that change.

    As much as I support Blackwell, and it seems my conversations and perceptions are similar to your’s Ace, in that Blackwell is highly regarded by the grassroots, I had a feeling that his conservatism would not sit well with the growing middle of the roaders. Or as I see them, those that don’t have strong principles. A principle is a principle because it works everytime, if there are exceptions, then they are not principles.

    How sad for the party!

  • kat

    The party deserves its minority status as long as he remains. Our party is being represented by fools who don’t have the spines to vote no on those things it should (BAILOUT), then to keep the man that helped lead us down the road?

    I am tired of GOP Senators and Congressmen just going along with the crap that is the Cabinet hearings (and an RNC Chairman who doesn’t do anything about it). Any GOP Senator that doesn’t object to Geithner’s selection needs to be replaced! The Grand Old Party has become the Go along with Obama Party. They are spineless weasels, something we expect from Democrats, but not something we should accept as Republicans.

    I have been teetering on becoming a Libertarian, as I, for the most part, have Libertarian leanings with the exception of the whole “legalizing all drugs” thing. They are a minority part yes, but at least they aren’t compromising the principles that have led them since their founding – which is where we are with the GOP.

  • AceInTX

    made up by and large by Squishes and Rockefeller Republicans…The Grass Roots and Blackwell are decidedly anti establishment. He never had a prayer because he was/is a threat to the squishes and moderates who have this party in a death grip…They’ll see this party destroyed before they give conservatives an iota of power…it’s time to clean house or start a new party…we can’t afford to keep doing what we’re doing or we’ll be european socialists in 10 years!

  • kat

    And let’s start voting out the spineless.

  • Martin Knight
  • http://www.theminorityreportblog.com/ Brian Simpson

    I think the fact that you pretty much have the same results in your poll as Hotline had in their poll affirms that people are responding to you honestly.

  • Lamplighter331

    At the risk of being way too much about style over substance, Dawson’s whole country club issue seems to be antithetical to an “outreach” program. At the very least, it provides a bludgeon for the bad guys to use that could drown out any type of substantive impact he could have.

    Did the 168 powers that be not actually read the results of 2006 and 2008?

  • itrytobenice

    I really like Blackwell. Has anyone said why they don’t support him?

    I watched him when John Kerry was trying to pull a bunch of crap in 2004 and Blackwell was SOS. Hubby and I said then that he was one tough old goat and wasn’t likely to get swayed by any pencil necked politician. I’ll bet that is still the case.

  • AceInTX

    The fact that Steele is cutting deals with Duncan basically affirms my suspicions of his squishiness and willingness to pander to the old guard…

    I don’t know much about Dawson but since he’s not Saltsman, Steele or Duncan…I’m ignorant about Saul beyond what’s been said here…and it’s not good…and if we have to go with anyone but Blackwell I guess I’m OK with Dawson…

    That being said…I think all those that support Blackwell on the grass roots should do something to show support for him whether it’s threatening to back challengers to the 168 at the next state conventions or burning up the phone/fax lines or writing in asking to be taken off their mailing lists we should be able to do something…All of the above?…Something else? Any Ideas?

  • AceInTX

    Clever

  • AceInTX

    he was one tough old goat and wasn?t likely to get swayed by any pencil necked politician. I?ll bet that is still the case.

    He can’t be rolled bought or blackmailed which put’s him in the anathema column in power politics…The man is a threat to the establishment and they’ll never let him in the door!

  • its_a_right_wing_thing

    both of the men are Politically correct sellouts when it comes to race matters. They very publically flap their gums about who can out each other and who is more accepting of diversity.

    The Dawson flap was already discussed here and I know Duncan is the same opportunistic idiot but for those who don’t know check out

    RNC chairman condemns controversial Obama song
    http://www.cnn.com/2008/POLITICS/12/27/obama.song/

    or google Chip Saltsman”. Rush Limbaugh played it in 2007 and along with posters on this site have all said there is nothing racial about the song which proves PC Duncan didn’t even listen to it, rather just ran with it while he could and got more PC votes for it.

    Either man who gets this is a Lindsay Graham RINO anyway and expect them to appoint/nominate/elect more likeminded losers to national elections (i.e Non-Southeners/transplants in the South, liberal “left leaning” Republicans in the Midwest and West)

    You watch. This is going to be bad and another Democrat year thanks in part to bad Elizabeth-Dole-like NRSC candidates (she took a little, but not enough blame in my opinion for the terrible candidates the RNC fielded in 2008) and I epxect the more out of these RINOs.

  • Democracy_First

    Katon Dawson is the wrong choice for the GOP right now.

    In past cycles or maybe sometime again in the future Mr. Dawson may have a future as Chairman, but honestly, right now, are we seriously going to elect someone who until recently was a member of a WHITE ONLY country club?

    Trust me, it may be a back burner issue right now, but the moment the man is elected Chairman, the mainstream media is going to go mainstream with Mr. Dawson’s membership in the elite club.

    I wish that RNC Members would talk to the grassroots of their state and understand the desire amongst so many of us to turn a new corner from the status quo of the current RNC leadership. Mike Duncan is not an acceptable candidate for reelection.

  • Democracy_First

    NRSC Chairman Cornyn voted in favor of Geithner’s appointment today. He and John Ensign both should resign their leadership positions and be replaced with two Republican Senators who at least respect the law.

  • mikefisk

    …as spineless as “CD-gate” was, anything that knocks Saltsman down a peg would be considered a good thing in my book. We need to repudiate red-meat populism as well as the RINO affliction.

  • http://conservative-and-proud.blogspot.com/ eschristian

    I am sick of country club, elite, out of touch moderates running this party. Either they get real, get conservative, and in touch with the American people or the GOP will continue to lose.

    I will not support anybody else no matter whether they have an R behind their name or not unless they are a true conservative.

  • http://conservative-and-proud.blogspot.com/ eschristian

    n/t

  • mbecker908
  • http://www.scottbomb.com scottbomb

    As it looks like we may be screwed for the foreseeable future. Becker’s comment above about how we can’t replace whoever these “168″ are is disenheartening so say the least.

    I got another beg letter from the GOP in the mail today. Part of me wants to write a message on the “survey” and send it back but I doubt it would do any good. In the trash it goes. I’d like to start a grassroots movement of my own. I’ll call it “Not One Red Cent!” All the fundraising would go to electing conservatives and screw the GOP.

  • http://www.scottbomb.com scottbomb

    I plead guilty to the embarassing grammatical errors. Rage does that to a guy.

  • mikefisk

    …you wouldn’t be alone in making that plunge if necessary. Been there, done that. (I’m not in the “legalize all drugs” camp myself, either… most of them, though).

  • HaroldHutchison

    Picking either Dawson or Saltsman is just handing the Dems a loaded gun to shoot our side with. Anuzis and Blackwell come from places where the GOP has gotten spanked in recent years. I also think it’s time for a change, so Duncan’s out.

    The process of elimination leaves Steele as the last one standing.

  • Scope

    Read this morning on Amanda Carpenters Blog on Townhall

    Republican National Committee Chairman candidate Michael Steele blasted out an eye-opening email to RNC members today, days before the hotly contested election for the post will take place.

    Apparently, a “senior Republican official” phoned Steele to see if he would make an alliance current Chairman Robert “Mike” Duncan for election, which some say could take as many as six ballots to settle. Steele said he turned the deal down and now he’s being accused of joining forces with Duncan.

    Sounds like a set-up to me, what a mess.

    Erik Erikson over at RedState wrote today:”My understanding is that Mike Duncan and Michael Steele are in the process of cutting a deal. If Duncan cannot get enough strength to get an outright victory or at least victory on the second ballot, he may swing his support to Steele. Likewise, Michael Steele is said to be amenable to the idea of throwing his support to Duncan on the second ballot if Duncan gets close on the first.

    Steele is flatly denying this. Here’s what Steele’s email said:

    Dear RNC Members:

    Welcome to fun week!

    Just a quick note from me to knock down a silly rumor. Several blogs today erroneously reported that I am making a deal with Chairman Mike Duncan.

    As I?m sure you know, this is absurd, complete fiction. I?m running for Chairman, not for deal-maker.

    Here is what is true — this weekend a senior Republican official called me to offer me some sort of power-sharing deal with Chairman Duncan.

    I completely dismissed the concept out of hand, interrupting before the deal could even be fully articulated, and thanked the gentleman for calling.

    I?ve always felt that the best way to deal with silliness like this is to address it straight up.

    I look forward to seeing all of you this week.

    –Michael Steele

  • JSobieski

    No single candidate stands out above the others, but I would be happy with Steele, Anuzis, or Blackwell.

    Anyone else would be a disappointment in my book.

  • AceInTX

    the squishes will allow us to work and they’ll play along for a while when their policies have failed and they’re out of power…but once back in power they’ll run interference against us as they’ve always done…Someone like Blackwell who has taken on establishment Republicans like the Taft administration and Voinovich will never be allowed to ascend to high office withing the RNC and the controlling apparatus of the party.

    It’s all about networking…you can get involved at the local level and unless you find a squish sugar daddy or at bes’t a moderately conservative sugar daddy, you’ll never advance in leadership beyond the precinct level…If you find a sugar daddy, you’ll never advance beyond the level that he is at unless you can find another sugar daddy who will advance you if you stab the first one in the back…and so on up the chain…Each new level is increasingly closer nit and made up of more and more liberal party men…occasionally you’ll have a Haley Barbour break through the 168 in the group when the party is down such as 1992…or a Reagan or Gingrich who go around the party in a direct appeal to voters through groups like GOPAC, (which has now been coopted by the establishment) but by and large if you show any independence or push conservatism to hard within the network, you’ll be labeled an extremist and blackballed!

  • AceInTX

    but at least I’d have hope that Duncan isn’t the ass I believe he is and that he has the ability to learn from mistakes and listen to others!

  • Mike gamecock DeVine

    And I could never support an RNC that would bring back Duncan after back to back congressional losses. The normal procedure is for incumbants’ presideing over losses, to resign.

    But I much go futher given that Duncan called out Saltsman using a false liberal meme of repubs as racist and in mischaracterizing the Rush parody. Moreover, Anuzis echoed and led the fleeing from the PC police.

    So, if either Duncan or Anuzis are elected, I will no longer identify myself as a Republican. One of THE main reasons I left the Dem party was their abandonment of MLK’s dream and their racist policies and esp their false labeling of the GOP as racist and I’ll be damned if I’ll be led in this party by men that so fear the PC police that they will either stay silent or echo false characterizations of Rush.

    The parody’s point was that the LEFT is race obsessed. That is the truth. I am into the truth and loathe stupid cowards.

    Blackwell got it immediately!

    As far as I know Dawson and Steele made no comment,

  • AceInTX

    Id encourage every republican to sign up for every Republican or RNC affiliated group like the NRCC and the NRSC and have them send you the solicitations…once signed up you’ll get hammered with solicitations for money and little else…save the letters and once you’ve got 20 or so of them…send it back with a note that you don’t agree with the direction they are going but keep sending the solicitations so you can contribute if they ever get their act together!

  • Mike gamecock DeVine

    but I won’t call myself a Republican if we choose Duncan or Anuzis.

  • AceInTX

    I was one of the first to raise questions about his affiliations with Whitman and I’ve always had questions about him based on his run in Maryland and his debate on MTP in 2005. I like him…and he’s a great spoaksman…but he’s an establishment guy through and through and when push comes to shove, he will cave and his debate on MTP bears that out.

    Duncan shouldn’t be within 1oo miles as chairman again and Steele shouldn’y be deal making with him…as far as I’m concerned…his ties to whitman were problematic…but his move to back Duncan in a political move seals the deal for me…I’ll never support him for RNC chair.

  • Achance

    of that survey crap – or even any results. They just have some contract direct mail company, probably owned by somebody close to the RNC, open the envelope, take out the money, take their cut of course, and trash the silly survey. The things just insult your intelliegence anyway, so I’ve never filled one out. I used to give money to the RNC and the House and Senate comittees, but anymore, it’s candidates only; can’t stand the “leadership” of the Party.

  • AceInTX

    If the deal making thing is wrong…then what I said to Jsob above would need to be reconsidered…I still have concerns about his RLC affiliation but if he’s not cutting a deal with Duncan thinks aren’t a slam dunk as they would be if he were dealing

  • AceInTX

    to get the establishment’s attention…It wouldn’t have to be a permanent party…just a one or two cycle movement to show the squishes we will no longer be trifled with…or taken for granted!

    I’ll almost vote strait line GOP as well…but I’m growing more and more fond of the idea of leaving the slot for a RINO blank! and it’s almost a 100% certainty that I’ll be changing my Party Affiliation to independent in 2010 since I can change it when I sign in at the polls…of course the loss of Republican registrations will be take by the squishes as an indication that they need to move even farther left but at this point I really don’t give a steaming pile of SHEEP SHXX!

  • Leon H. Wolf

  • http://www.scottbomb.com scottbomb

    I looked into registering notoneredcent.com and I found the owner. It’s unused so I asked for the domain. Appearently he doesn’t like my idea and he found this post awefully quickly. He must have googled it because I didn’t tell him everything quite yet. Here’s a copy of our corrospondence. (Not to say I’ve given up on this idea. Just maybe this domain.)

    Me: “Hi ****,

    Just wondering about this domain as I see you are the owner. Do you have any plans for it? I’m not looking to buy it as I don’t have the money people want for domains. However, I’m curious to see if you have political ideas for it. If so, would you mind sharing your idea? If we have a common interest, I may be interested in helping you develop it.

    -Scott”

    Him: “hi scott – i was using it for a while as a way to send a message to congress that we wouldn’t be sending any more money along as long as they refused to govern according to their promises.

    Since then it has lapsed, but I still think the idea is a good one… in fact, I know it is. It’s been picked up by changecongress and Larry Lessig.

    Not sure how to use it right now though.”

    Me: “Would you be willing to part with the domain name?”

    Him: “I’d have to know more about who it was going to and for what purpose.”

    I typed up a response but just as I sent it, he sent me another:

    “nope.

    http://www.redstate.com/erick/2009/01/26/where-the-rnc-chairs-race-stands/#comment-17158

    you are on the wrong side.

    Of course, if you were to send $1,000 to Planned Parenthood or ACORN or MoveOn, I might reconsider… ;-) ”

    Yeah…. like THAT’S gonna happen!

    Anyhow, here was my last response that I sent before I saw that he had already discovered the answer to his question:

    “I’m looking to use it to maybe start a grassroots organization to get the attention of GOP leadership that myself and other feel have lost their way in Washington. Similar to your use in that our elected officials aren’t doing the jobs we elected them to do and I’d like to get their attention that we’re withholding party donations until they shape up.”

    LOL. It was a fun exchange, but after looking up the folks he mentioned, “changecongress and Larry Lessig”, I kinda figured he’s say no. But as they say, it never hurts to try!

  • AceInTX

    The sheep reference?

  • AceInTX

    but finally figured out they didn’t even read them a year or so later and quit filling them out…the questions were always framed so you had to answer a certain way anyway so it’s not like the people sending them out were looking for input anyway

  • delawhere1

    Having been involved in the GOP for over half a century, starting as an AYR (Active Young Republican) in the mid-50′s, I no longer recognize my party!

    Anyone who asks a question or suggests something and a whole bunch of accusations of RINO – No way to build a party!

    If someone suggests a coalition to try to bring unity to the party, we hear screams of ‘traitor’. No way to ever grow to success.

    Sure sounds like the Party of Lincoln is headed to the history books along with the other dead parties.