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EDITOR OF REDSTATE

Toomey Beats Specter

By: Erick Erickson (Diary)  |  April 24th, 2009 at 11:39 AM  | 

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Pat Toomey is beating Arlen Specter by 21% among Republican Primary voters in Pennsylvania according to Rasmussen.

Incumbent Senator Arlen Specter trails former Congressman Pat Toomey by 21 points in an early look at Pennsylvania’s 2010 Republican Primary. Fifty-one percent (51%) of Republican voters statewide say they’d vote for Toomey while just 30% would support Specter.

Specter is viewed favorably by 42% of Pennsylvania Republicans and unfavorably by 55%, according to a new Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of voters in the state. Those are stunningly poor numbers for a long-term incumbent senator. Specter was first elected to the Senate in 1980.

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  • Marcus_Traianus

    Pennsylvania election law is relatively sane compared to many of the Open Primary states. There does not appear to be the party switching and other ignominious maneuvering that occurs in other states. Related Pennsylvania Statutes (believe it?s 25 P.S. ? 292) is very specific about voting/registering in primaries/generals and switching parties.

    Go Pat!

  • ehosterman

    we’ll get several other conservative candidates that will split the vote allowing Specter to skate through. In addition to Toomey, i believe that Peg Luksik (spelling?) is also planning to run. I’m sure that Snarlin Arlen will welcome as many conservative opponents as possible.

  • ATLconservative

    Given that this is a rematch, Toomey is very familiar to PA Repubs, and so he’s likely to trump any other conservative candidates. I don’t really find this a likely concern.

  • Marcus_Traianus

    Toomey is a pretty solid candidate, will get party backing and attract more funding from conservative and independent minded Republicans.

    I like Peg, but she is a team player. Unless Pat really somehow blows it, I don’t see her or anyone else stepping in.

  • Marcus_Traianus

    Toomey is a pretty solid candidate, will get party backing and attract more funding from conservative and independent minded Republicans.

    I like Peg, but she is a team player. Unless Pat really somehow blows it, I don’t see her or anyone else stepping in.

  • AceInTX
  • AceInTX
  • mbauer

    Can Toomey win in the general? Of the 10 most competitive senate races in 2010, probably 7 are currently Republican seats. 2010 is not currently looking favorable to the GOP in the senate. I hope in 2010 we aren’t replacing the line “whatever it takes to prevent a fillibuster proof Democratic Senate” with “whatever it takes to prevent a super majority Democratic Senate”

    Outside of Dodd, Reid, and Burris (if he gets through the Dem Primary) what seats are we really looking at picking up?

    Maybe I’ll get excited about Toomey as the public gets more dissatisfied with Obama, and friendly to the alternative- I’m just nervous until then.

  • http://crippy.me Crippy

    hopefully, the GOP can rid themselves of Specter and McCain. Enough is enough. I hope!

    Gun Control Magnets

    img border=”0″ src=”http://www.pocketconstitutions.com/mm/mm_shirt.jpg” width=”500″ height=”375″>

  • SecularRepublican

    I’m sure Toomey would do just fine in a number of southern states, but I’m not so confident about Pennsylvania. The last time a conservative ran – Santorum – he got thrashed by about 15% in 2006. I also thought McCain had a fighting chance in 2008, only for the race to be called about 20 minutes after the polls closed. I would rather have a Republican who votes the right way about 75% of the time hold the seat than a Democrat who votes the right way 0% of the time.

  • ehosterman

    Most of the polls I’ve seen show Toomey over Specter because we’re just so pissed at Arlen. Hoewever, they also show that a lot of people indicate that they need to know more about Toomey. His name recognition is fairly good where I live because he was a local congressman. However, outside of the Lehigh valley, most people don’t know him form Adam, unless they’ra a political junkie.

  • ehosterman

    If the economy keeps going the way it’s been going and the Democrats keep over-reaching, you’ll be able to run axe murderers against Democrats everywhere except Massachusetts and win. Santorum didn’t lose because he was conservative. He lost because he supported Arlen in 2004 and pissed off his base in Pittsburgh over billing for Cyberschooling his kids. Of course, Bush and Iraq war fatigue didn’t help eithher. None of those will be factors in 2010.

  • DavidSage

    I would vote for Toomey over Specter, even though Toomey will have a much harder time getting elected.

    2010 is not going to be a Democrat year, and Toomey has previous elected experience in Congress, so he’s not just some random conservative activist. He actually has a decent chance of winning, and the grassroots will send a lot of money his way.

    I’m usually a supporter of Republican incumbents, even in they’re more moderate than I want, but Specter is a liberal, plain and simple. He’s done incredible damage over the years to the conservative agenda by being a “maverick” Republican. His support of Obama’s porkulus package was the final straw.

    Specter getting knocked off would really straighten a lot of other Republican politicians who want media praise for wandering off the reservation.

    My only fear is, can Specter lose the Republican primary, but get his name on the ballot as an independent, similar to what happened to Lieberman?

  • naraht

    Sort of from an averaging of what’s there (not counting SSP and Campaign Diaries which lean left), the Dem seats that are Leans or Tossup at least once include CT (Dodd), NV (Reid), IL (Burris), NY (Gillibrand), CO (Bennett) and maybe Delaware (Kaufmann retiring). I think Delaware will be really dependent on the National mood as it appears it will be Biden’s son vs. the long time Republican member of the house.

  • naraht

    Outside of Pittsburgh and Philly, Pennsylvania isn’t *that* much more liberal than the south. (I’ve heard the rural areas called Pennsyl-tucky and Pennsyl-Bama) In a lot of ways Pennsylvania is four races. 1) The Urban core of Philly, 2) The Philly Suburbs, 3) Pittsburgh and 4) The “T”, which is the remainder of the state. #1 will always be won by the Democrat and #4 by the Republican. To win, Toomey has to take Pittsburgh, and stay even or slightly win the Philly Suburbs.

  • naraht

    I’d love to know the last statewide election in Pennsylvania where the winner didn’t take the Pittsburgh metropolitan area. (Allegheny, Armstrong, Beaver, Butler, Fayette, Washington and Westmoreland).

    However Toomey’s base is at the other end of the state (Allentown, Bethlehem, Easton) and ABE is normally considered part of the “T”.

    However the Democratic members of the US House (Murphy and Schwartz) who are supposed to be considering are both from the Northern Suburbs of Philly. I think the only Democrat with a decent Pittsburgh base who is supposed to be considering it is former Steeler, Franco Harris.

  • bk

    (rolls eyes)

  • burbmom

    Even though the populace has a different view, Cornyn stated the NRSC is going to back Specter. No surprise with the entrenched belt-way conservatives have shown with recent votes. Cornyn did support Geitner, TARP, so why not give Arlen another chance to show us how “conservative” he is!? I’ve already donated directly to Toomey’s campaign.

  • burbmom

    Even though the populace has a different view, Cornyn stated the NRSC is going to back Specter. No surprise with the entrenched belt-way conservatives have shown with recent votes. Cornyn did support Geitner, TARP, so why not give Arlen another chance to show us how “conservative” he is!? I’ve already donated directly to Toomey’s campaign.

  • naraht

    See http://blog.newsweek.com/blogs/thegaggle/archive/2009/04/09/specter-will-not-run-as-an-independent.aspx

    See down near the end of the article.

    Randy

  • Dencal26

    Jack Murtha basically called his constituents ignorant racist fools. And on election day they proved he was right. .You never know what to expect in PA

  • Marcus_Traianus

    and I say that in a very serious and concerned manner. ;-)

  • Marcus_Traianus

    and I say that in a very serious and concerned manner. ;-)

  • bk

    We keep hearing that there is NFW that Toomey can win the state, but Specter is “moderate” enough to get re-elected. If those are both true, then why wouldn’t the far left Dems be encouraging “progressives” to switch parties and vote for Toomey so that a “real” Democrat is a lock to win the Senate seat?

    Yeah I’m sure there are some Democrats who’d rather give away a child than register as a Republican, but it makes me wonder whether what it really means is that Toomey has some chance of winning the general election if the natl GOP quits stabbing him in the back every chance they get.

  • bk

    but given primaries are a year away I’d think people could switch if they want at this point.

  • red_oakster

    The easiest solution to folks like Specter is to win Senate seats in places like North Carolina and Montana and Colorado. If we had 45 or 46 seats in the Senate, Specter wouldn’t be as important. And it should always be easier for Republicans to win in North Carolina than in Pennsylvania.

    That said, Santorum won in 94 and 2000, lost in 06. Toomey can win in an even or pro-GOP year and likely would lose in a Democratic wave year. 2010 is unlikely to be a big Democratic wave year. I think Toomey will be competitive in the general election. For Specter, this is Jacob Javits 1980 all over again.

  • CowboyUp4419

    You’re exactly right. I share the same concerns. When you’re holding by your fingernails on to your last bit of power it’s not exactly the best time to try to purge people from the party.

    Specter ticks me off, too, but given the state he represents and its voting habits lately, it’s not hard to imagine something much, much worse coming out of Pennsylvania. The fact that the question of whether or not Toomey can win is being asked ought to disqualify him as a candidate given our current position in the Senate.

    Consider the larger picture. If 2010 shapes up to be anything but a strong year for Republicans then Toomey’s likely dead in the water against any generic Dem candidate. Bush never won PA despite a massive effort in 04, Santorum got trounced in 06 and they called it for Obama over McCain less than half an hour after the polls closed. There may be a lot of very conservative areas of the state but based on the last few elections there seem to be a lot more liberals ones. If 2010 turns out to be a very strong Republican year and Toomey goes from “dead where he stands” to “viable” then the race will still be a drain on national resources. Should 2010 be a Republican walk then Specter could probably win the state on his own and the NRSC could instead spend its time and money trying to win in Delaware, Connecticut, Illinois, Nevada and New York. Much as I don’t care for Arlen I could deal with him for six more years if it meant Castle took Biden’s Senate seat and Chris Dodd was unemployed come January 2011.

    If we’re going to seriously consider primary challenges to the RINOs and semi-RINOs of the world, it ought to be done either when we’ve got a large Senate majority or in states where “generic (R)” should win. As much as I don’t like Susan Collins or Olympia Snowe, they’re realistically probably the best we could get out of Maine but there’s no good reason Chuck Hagel lasted as long as he did in Nebraska or Lindsey Grahamnesty is still representing South Carolina. Those type of things, to me, are the primary shots we ought to be taking rather than trying to pick off a viable (R) in a blue state.

  • noufa

    As a non-Pennsylvanian who has never foot in the state, I don’t like the idea of national Republicans meddling in a PA Senate Primary. Let the locals pick their own politicians. My state’s Republicans could better use my support, anyway.

    Your point about Graham is well-taken, too.

    But it seems obvious that PA Republicans are behind the push against Specter:

    http://www.pittsburghlive.com/x/pittsburghtrib/news/mostread/s_613850.html

    I still have mild concerns that conservatives are overreaching. OTOH, I’m not sure Specter is a lock (see above link) or that Toomey is DOA. Are there any polls backing up your pessimism?

    You may be overestimating the leftward tilt of PA. Note that Santorum won in ’94 & ’00. He lost in ’06 to Bob Casey, who ran on his dad’s name & presented himself as a pro-life moderate. Toomey will not face another Casey.

    There was also a concerted effort by his opponents to attach Santorum to Abramoff. That will be a non-factor in 2010.

    And yes, Bush & the Iraq War were poisonous in ’06. Time is on our side here.

    Some have compared Specter to Lieberman. Don’t buy it. Lieberman lives in a solid Democrat state. It was easy for Republicans to swallow their pride & throw their weight behind Joe. But PA is a swing state.

  • PaRep

    (Not Proven) Sphincter

  • dld1717

    can win in November

    PA has trended Democrat do to the suburbs of Philly ( all Republican Congressional people who lost) and these people are socially liberal and fiscally conservative and when times are tough ( as they are) social issues get replaced with other concerns.

    Over past 2 cycles we lost 5 seats in PA alone.