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EDITOR OF REDSTATE

Why the NRSC and PAGOP Should Not Waste Time With Gerlach

By: Erick Erickson (Diary)  |  May 3rd, 2009 at 08:38 PM  | 

RESIZE: AAA

Rumors abound that the Pennsylvania GOP and/or the NRSC are flirting with both Jim Gerlach and Tom Ridge.

We know Tom Ridge cannot win in Pennsylvania again in a Republican Primary because of the changed dynamics and demographics from the last time he ran. But what of Jim Gerlach?

The PAGOP and NRSC are flirting with him because Gerlach regularly wins re-election as a Republican in D +2 districts. They forget, however, that Pat Toomey did the same — and with larger margins.

In fact, in 2002, the year Toomey and Gerlach were both on the ballot in D +2, Toomey got 57.4% of the vote and Gerlach got 51% of the vote. Toomey did so without selling out his conservative values. Not so with Gerlach.

In fact, and this is key, Gerlach actually has a more liberal voting record on issues Pennsylanians care about than Arlen Specter. If Specter cannot get out of a Republican primary, how on earth could Gerlach? The answer is he can’t.

Consider these issues:

  • Gerlach voted for the Medicare Prescription Drug Act.
  • He voted for the Bridge to Nowhere.
  • He voted to allow Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to continue borrowing money from the Treasury.
  • He voted for the mortgage bailout program.
  • He voted for TARP
  • He voted against the right of workers to cast a secret ballot for unionization.
  • He voted against drilling in ANWR.
  • He voted against the same-sex marriage ban.
  • He voted against lifting the moratorium on natural gas production.
  • He voted for outrageous pork projects like California’s Mule and packers, Missouri’s Jazz Mueseum, Maine’s Lobster Institute, and Houston’s zoo.

While these issues may not matter in a general election in Pennsylvania, they matter greatly in a Republican Primary in Pennsylvania and each of these votes works in Pat Toomey’s favor.

So the question is this: do the NRSC and PAGOP want to spend resources trying to beat Pat Toomey in the primary or do they want to focus on beating Arlen Specter? Because if they rough up Toomey now, they can’t beat him, but they make him very vulnerable.

In the meantime, there are more than 400 days before the 2010 general election. The situation is not static. The historic trends will most likely work in Toomey’s favor.

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COMMENTS

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  • Kayla

    Did this guy kill a baby or something? Why can’t they stand behind a solid conservative? I thought they were on some kind of listening tour. Well people are tired of them Dem lite. We want the real thing.

  • Kayla

    Did this guy kill a baby or something? Why can’t they stand behind a solid conservative? I thought they were on some kind of listening tour. Well people are tired of them Dem lite. We want the real thing.

  • red_oakster

    I think Ridge could win a primary, but any primary against Toomey would be expensive and divisive. For ANY Republican nominee to win a general election in PA, they need to attract conservqtives and moderates. If Ridge or Gerlach get in now and manage to win a primary, they’ll leave a lot of alienated Republicans. Ridge has a legacy and Gerlach has a future, and running for this seat could ruin either.

    Look for all these guys to take a pass.

  • mecat212

    I have had the most profound dislike for Arlen Spector since he defected the Democratic party in Philadelphia over 35 years ago to run for city District Attorney. If there was an alternate candidate on the Republican primary ballot, I voted for him or her. In the general election, I wrote in another representative. I voted for,campaigned and financially supported Pat Toomey when he ran against Benedict Arlen. Both Jim Gerlach and Tom Ridge are light weights. We are clammering at the doors of the Montgomery county Pennsylvania Republican committee and also our local people to support Pat Toomey’s candidacy. He came so close the last time. While president and founder of the Club For Growth he exposed the profound waste that our government spent and he is a conservative capitalist’s dream.
    Pennsylvania as gradually turned blue due to the considerable influx of Philadelphia Democrats exiting the high tax burden and poor public school system of the city and their voting record shows it. Why can’t they understand that when digging up their liberal roots it is necessary to put down more conservative ones in the suburbs or else they will get the same thing they desired to leave behind.

    Now if we can only get rid of Fast Eddie Rendell in Harrisburg, maybe Pennsylvania can get back their rosy blush of prosperity lost so many years ago,

  • kat

    I don’t get the “We know Tom Ridge cannot win in Pennsylvania again in a Republican Primary” meme. I know many, many Republicans and Democrats alike in this state that long for the good days of Ridge as Governor. He was well respected and still is. In my experience, the GOP in PA tends more to fiscal conservatism than social conservatism. I have lived through Repub and Dem governors alike and Ridge was one of the best we have had in PA. I would take him any day over pro-life Governor Casey.

    I look forward to a good debate, no matter who runs. Not dirty, just a good debate. If Toomey represents our side better, certainly I would vote for him. To shut down any competition before it even starts goes against my beliefs.

    And I second mecat212′s opinion on Fast Eddie. Thank goodness for term limits – next fall we elect Eddie’s replacement.

  • clement

    The amount of spending it would take to beat Toomey would leave the winner, no matter who it was, cash starved. The constant back and forth negative ads will alienate some group of people that would have otherwise voted for that person. Just back Toomey, save the cash and go into the general relatively fresh (I don’t think the other (R) challenger is going anywhere). Let the dems (Specter vs. ??) bloody each other up and limp into the general.

    This whole ‘Toomey can’t win’ seems like it will be nothing but a self fulfilling prophecy should the GOP continue to push it. How about let the electorate decide instead of trying to push a candidate on them. Maybe that is why almost 70% of GOP think republicans in congress are out of touch.

  • dld1717

    I am so tired of the mantra from some here.

    Fact: PA is blue state now
    Fact: Ridge is still very popular
    Fact: Toomey has been branded right of Rick and we all know how first impressions are hard to overcome

    Gerlach: He has been tested more times, is the last remaining Republicans in PA suburbs and a district that went for Obama with 58% no less

    Can this site please stop the war on Republicans attacking other Republicans and start focusing on electing Republicans

  • mbecker908

    stop making war on on Republicans.

    As far as Toomey goes, we’ll see.

  • smagar

    It IS their state, and their Senator, after all.

    I do think that the NRSC shouldn’t be picking winners and losers, at least just yet. By all means, have them do their polling and determine which candidates have strengths and weaknesses. But, let’s not have the political establishment in DC preemptively kneecap anyone.

  • dld1717

    had better start endorsing candidates like the Dems do in primaries

    We need to win elections

  • scarlos

    Which they say is because he was “Too Conservative” for Pennsylvania.

    Which is an argument that I don’t buy in the slightest, given that “Moderate” Mike DeWine won only 3 more percent in significantly more Republican (about 2-3 points more to be precise) Ohio.

  • dld1717

    I don’t get why some scream and throw tantrums at the prospective of having an open and free election

    Any Republican should run for Senate Race and PA voters decide and no one will force anyone to vote for anyone with a gun held up to their head

  • scarlos

    and Toomey posted generally good results, winning by 10 points in the anti-republican 1998 house elections.

    Also, the reason teh Suburbs are turning blue is not really because the voters there are shifting party loyalty–it’s because the Downtown Liberals are moving in. Philadelphia proper has lost a few Congressional districts in the 1990 and 2000 sensus, and teh suburbs are gaining them.

    Naturally, this doesn’t really affect the state-wide voting patterns

  • JadedByPolitics

    against Toomey HOWEVER don’t you think that person should DECIDE for themselves and NOT have the National idiots who think they know better FORCE them to? There has already BEEN a competitor to Specter and it was Toomey and guess what HE WON! Specter saw he was going to get his BUTT WIPED OUT and LEFT!

    The only difference in this race now is that Toomey having shown Specter the door is now having the National Republicans denigrate him by BEGGING someone, anyone to run against him in the primary which will take LOADS of money and bitterness that will be used against whichever one won by the Democrat in the general.

    Why is it so hard for YOU to understand that Toomey in a technical knockout WON THE RIGHT TO CARRY THE REPUBLICAN BANNER INTO THE GENERAL!

  • JadedByPolitics

    …

  • dld1717

    Toomey has not won the right to carry the Republican banner in general election at all

    I’d like to see poll of all voters Arlen vs Toomey and I am willing to bet Arlen would have 15 point lead

  • smagar

    I could literally see you standing on top of the soapbox, waving hands clenched in fists of rage.

    Yep, that closed the deal for me…

  • dld1717

    Suburb voters work in the city and are socially liberal. They support abortion, gay rights, the arts, and more then likely hated the Iraq War and have been alienated by Republicans on some religious fronts as well.

    I want to know who holds Toomey old house seat?

  • smagar

    Isn’t PA having the same kinds of budget problems and deficit problems other states are having? Well then, wouldn’t Toomey’s fiscal discipline bona fides serve him well statewide?

    At the risk of tripping the “Threadjack Alert” switch, I offer this as food for thought.

  • Kayla

    If Specter had a 15 point lead over Toomey, he never would have left the party.

  • Kayla

    If Specter had a 15 point lead over Toomey, he never would have left the party.

  • http://www.hakubi.us/ Neil Stevens

    All you do is badmouth Republicans. You’re a joke.

  • David123

    1. Incumbency
    2. name recognition
    3. attractive to Democrats, especially now that he is registered as such
    4. attractive to independents

    He will have these advantages over ANY Republican challenger. He will win if Barrack Obama is perceived as having saved America or been good for America in 2010.

    Toomey will have the advantage of a fired up Republican base. If most people believe the country is on the WRONG track in 2010, and an anti-democrat, anti-incumbent wave sweeps over the country, Specter will be vulnerable, and Toomey will be the Republican best able to exploit the vulnerability. Ridge and Gerlach will not be able to attack Specter for being an incumbent Washington-insider nearly as well as Toomey will.

    The Republicans may have only a slim chance of winning the Senate seat with Toomey, but with Ridge or Gerlach, their chance is microscopic or none. For Republicans outside Pennsylvania to try to foist someone other than Toomey on the people is not a winning idea.

  • David123
  • JadedByPolitics

    weenie out and go D to save his Senate seat….heck there was a poll in December that had Chrissie Matthews beating Specter by 8 points by Rasmussen so he is not like by D’s in PA either!

  • JadedByPolitics

    you guys sure are freindly with each other that way……whats up smager you think dld cannot win an argument all by his lonesome.

    OBTW I don’t care to deal with you at all so you had nothing to close. I am on a soapbox and I am getting my message out and yes I am passionate and yes my fists of rage are waving in the air how do you get your message out other than you know whining.

  • dld1717

    How does Toomey win over suburb voters who are socially liberal?

    If its a Ridge vs Arlen race; Ridge can’t be portrayed as product of right wing seeing PA voters know he isn’t and I am sure Arlen’s age and health with be in back of voters minds

    Tom Ridge is very popular in the state and would be favorite over Arlen even the liberal sites where all saying it today

  • dld1717

    Smile

    No one likes a meanie

  • dld1717

    was only of registered Republicans

    Did not include Indep and Dems which Arlen was bound to do better with then a Toomey

  • JadedByPolitics

    when up on one’s soapbox one can let their typing get away from them YEP that is my story and I am sticking to it!

  • http://www.hakubi.us/ Neil Stevens

    After all, weren’t you and the NRSC on Specter’s side just a little bit ago?

    Are you guys even going to acknowledge how wrong you were before continuing your vendetta against Toomey?

  • JadedByPolitics

    you came up with that supposition from where? the lucky charms cereal box?

  • mbecker908

    I would have no problem with that.

    When the Dems endorse, and provide money for, a candidate they demand and GET discipline in the ranks. I’ll take that every day.

  • dld1717

    wanting to win elections instead of throwing a hussie fit if u don’t get your way

    I am wrong lol

    Will you admit that Toomey has already been portrayed as far right of center and that first impressions like these are hard to overcome? Will you admit that PA is a blue state now and we can’t run a candidate who could win in SC?

  • http://www.hakubi.us/ Neil Stevens

    If we have to win on age, conceding the issues, then why bother?

  • eburke

    that the anger and ire on this site isn’t at Gerlach or Ridge running, it’s at the NRSC for *again* sticking their nose into a primary, and once again for the ‘moderate he can win’ candidate. This is the same crap they pulled in RI where they weren’t just content to support Linc, they actively attacked and destroyed his conservative opponent.

    What don’t you get about conservatives being sick and tired of being asked for their time and money only to see it spent supporting candidates who don’t support thier views? What part don’t you get about conservatives being beyond tired of having a moderate or liberal ‘annointed’ by the ‘political class’ and then being told to sit down, shut up, and vote for the ‘Party’ and if they don’t they’re accused of being disloyal by people like you.

    What part of being repeatedly used and abused are you not getting?

  • David123

    why did the Democrats pick a pro-life guy to run against Santorum?

  • dld1717

    why would a Indep voter who is inclined to be a moderate be more inclined to vote for Conservative?

    Did u get your political reasoning in a church pew?

  • http://www.hakubi.us/ Neil Stevens

    But you don’t get to use your own words to further your own cause.

  • http://www.hakubi.us/ Neil Stevens

    This is a Republican site. We’re not reflexively anti-religion.

    I think you’te getting your scripts crossed up.

  • eburke

    our best interests at heart.

    The Dem’s would hang GWB and the Iraq war around Ridge’s neck so fast it’ll make your head swim.

  • dld1717

    Do u honestly think that liberal feminist voters stayed home in that Casey-Rick race? No and Casey has been no pro life Senator

    They voted for Casey just like in the end conservatives would vote for Ridge

  • eburke

    whole situation with facts. That just ruins the whole SoCons are ruining the party meme. Ya gotta stop bringing up details like that, ‘k?

  • JadedByPolitics

    I am not religious but nice way to throw the religious amongst us here at Redstate under the bus because you disagree with me (your true colors are showing). Your straw man of Independents is easily blown apart because an I is already a moderate by the very definition of Independent they are neither left nor right. I question where you get your political reasoning from as I personally think it is the McCain, Specter school of to hell with everyone but yourself!

  • dld1717

    who voted for Linc over Laffey cause I knew Laffey had zero chance of winning

    Granted we still lost but the NRSC was wise to do what they did in that race

    I am a Republican first it seems some are Conservatives first and that is where the clash is on these fronts and I suspect it will only continue to hurt party unity

  • dld1717

    same war Arlen voted for? The same man Arlen voted to make HomeLand Security Chief?

  • http://www.hakubi.us/ Neil Stevens

    Every time you write U instead of YOU you beclown yourself

    Every time you fail to hit Reply To This you fail the RS IQ test.

  • eburke

    So, you have no problem spending millions of dollars propping up a guy who didn’t even vote for the presidential nominee of his party? I think you may have just lost whatever credibility you still had.

    So, question for you. Since winning elections for people with an R next to their name (even when they don’t return the favor, cf. Linc Chafee) seems to be the only criteria you have for voting for a candidate, if Barack Obama switches to the Republican part in 2012, will you vote for him? I mean, after all, he’d be a Republican.

  • http://www.hakubi.us/ Neil Stevens

    Linc still lost, and on top of that, Linc also has switched parties and is running against the Republican for Governor.

    Funny how the guys you like never seem to stay Republican.

  • JadedByPolitics

    I believe you have called that RIGHT he would vote for Obama if he changed party id’s in a NY or RI minute :-)

  • dld1717

    You don’t get it. Linc was only Republican who could win in RI and now the state has 2 Dem Senators for whenever they choose and neither will face a contested general again. Holding that seat was only a win in my eyes as it should of been a Dem seat and he then at least he voted for GOP Majority Leader

    I would not vote for Obama in Primary because I would have better candidates to choose and more who I feel could win

    Question: Is it better to lose an election with holding your principles held firmly intact without budging or allowing some wiggle room and winning and enlarging the base?

    I choose later by way

  • dld1717

    I refuse to resort to your level of being a daily kos angry boy poster

    Disagree with me but don’t resort to name calling it only shows u are on losing side of an adult argument

  • dld1717

    So I should of voted for Steve even though he would of lost by 20 points or more in general?

    You don’t get it cause I am wiling to bet u reside in a really red state

  • eburke

    with your prognosticating skills. Didn’t realize that someone died and appointed you as the omniscient one.

    Is that anything like Rudy was the only person who could beat Hillary for president? I’ve kinda been out of the loop so is it President Clinton or President Guiliani right now?

  • eburke

    ….blah, blah, blah.

    So…..you *would* vote for him if he won the nomination?

  • http://www.hakubi.us/ Neil Stevens

    You lose. Again.

  • JadedByPolitics

    and you find yourself to be mentally secure in your debate style? I would suggest that you STOP with the hating on Toomey and people will not have to call you out on it. You have provided NOTHING substantial that shows that Toomey cannot win other than your own thought process. The man was told he couldn’t win his Congressiional seat by the same “talking heads” who say he cannot win now.

  • David123

    If Gerlach wins by beating Toomey and Republicans outside PA stay neutral, fine.

    If Ridge wins by beating Toomey and Republicans outside PA stay neutral, fine.

    But NRSC should either stay neutral or back Toomey since he’s the current front runner among the Republicans. Also, I suspect that Toomey is pretty popular with grass-roots Republicans nationwide by forcing Specter to fish or cut bait.

    Well, at least Specter isn’t a RINO anymore.

  • http://www.ssce.net/Web-Articles/Web-articles-indexed-authors.html#authors-l JLenardDetroit

    though they many may indeed NOT vote….

    Those principles work so well when the other side, worse than our softest candidates, win — NOT!!!

    on your other point — Democrat PLINOs.

  • David123

    :-)

  • eburke

    you get the chance to ask) I’m from MN which just elected Al Freaking Franken to the Senate and I …..wait for it….not only voted for Norm Coleman but gave money to him and put his sign up in my yard (and FTR…Norm’s ACU rating was in the mid-60s)

    But hey, I’m just a knuckle-dragging Neandrethal conservative who would rather cling to my principles than vote for someone who’s ever, ever, ever, voted in a way I don’t like.

  • http://www.hakubi.us/ Neil Stevens
  • dld1717

    reading your posts is like wanting to take a red pen to all your grammar errors

  • eburke

    into these discussions. It’s so *rude* and ….well…intolerant of you.

  • http://www.hakubi.us/ Neil Stevens

    Stomping his foot and saying TOOMEY CAN’T WIN BECAUSE TOOMEY CAN’T WIN BECAUSE I SAY SO is unassailable logic. :-)

  • dld1717

    I always vote straight ticket Republican

  • JadedByPolitics

    what is wrong with you? perhaps if you are allowed to stay you should just stick with the election polling and STOP trying to talk politics because you are absolutely an unintelligent small minded person.

  • http://moelane.com/ Moe Lane

    You really should keep your story straight.

    http://www.redstate.com/vladimir/2008/10/04/la-primaries-including-the-reelection-bid-of/#comment-156

    Mobying is a definite no-no. But I’m a nice person, so this is what we’ll do: you’re going to add the following to your signature.

    I have spent the last few months pretending to be a conservative and a Republican on this site; this was a lie, and a stupid lie.

    …and you’re going to do that before you post here again. Do that, and you may live.

    Grok?

  • eburke

    numbed robots.

    All I can say is “Wow”

  • David123

    but I liked John Belushi better than Rev Wright

  • http://www.ssce.net/Web-Articles/Web-articles-indexed-authors.html#authors-l JLenardDetroit

    I prefer/support Toomey and that Ridge stay out (at least this time, let him step up and run next time the Senate slot against a Dem is available in PA)

    I’m busy stuffing my face with food, I don’t need anyone trying to cram some words in there too right now ;-)

  • dld1717

    so if every poster on this site does not stay 100% in conservative ideology then they are unintelligent and get attacked?

    I have made no bones about being what many here identify as a moderate but make no mistake I have worked, gave money, and done everything possible to elect Republicans. If Toomey wins primary he’ll get check from me and I am sure you would do same if Ridge won?

    I always vote for my parties nominee in each and every race

  • http://www.hakubi.us/ Neil Stevens
  • http://www.ssce.net/Web-Articles/Web-articles-indexed-authors.html#authors-l JLenardDetroit

  • http://moelane.com/ Moe Lane

    http://www.redstate.com/erick/2009/05/03/why-the-nrsc-and-pagop-should-not-waste-time-with-gerlach/#comment-22759

    On the off chance that this is mere drunkenness – the theory has been at least offered, based mostly on the odd spelling and grammatical conventions – email us when you sober up.

  • http://www.ssce.net/Web-Articles/Web-articles-indexed-authors.html#authors-l JLenardDetroit

    Not looking to condemn NOR defend here….

    People have good and bad days, and it seems that there are several people having a bad-day that need to calm down and let us be respectful….

    As for his (dld) comment about him being “Moderate” and “always voting Republican” – by his comments (and I DO NOT know him well enough, so I’ll take him on his word in relation to this), that would make him a Red-Dog and I have no problem with that…..

    We do tend, sometimes, to have people deciding to over-react, IMO, and be a bit too harsh when we needn’t be. Goes back to long ago conversations about Cannibalising our own!

  • IJB

    Hardly.

    As several of us around here are pointing out, the odds are pretty good that ol’ Arlen won’t even make it to the General.

    Either way, I’d still put money on Toomey to win it all, based on how fast Obama’s ship is sinking.

  • http://beaglescout.wordpress.com LJ “Beaglescout” Miller

    I don’t think I believe he was corrupt, but he got beaten in the year in which Dems cared about corruption. Well, they always care about Republican “corruption,” including anything that can be painted that way, but not so much in their own party.

  • http://beaglescout.wordpress.com LJ “Beaglescout” Miller

    If your political party is a jellyfish that takes the shape of the container its in then you don’t actually have a party. You have the container. And if the Republican jellyfish is shaped by a Democrat container then it might as well be Democrat for all the good it does. Republicans need to promote principled Republican candidates, not Republican jellyfish like Chaffee, McCain, and Gerlach.

    Democrats will vote for a fighting, principled Republican. They haven’t seen any such thing for so long they haven’t had a chance to vote for him or her.

  • McKinley

    at least on principle in giving some leeway to moderates in the Northeast on conservative principles, but I can’t imagine Ridge would be a stronger candidate.

    Spector should not win this election, even with Obama support. Liberal democrats will not show up to vote for him and conservatives will likely stay home if Ridge beats Toomey in a nasty primary. If PA social conservatives have to choose between two squishes like Ridge/Specter, many might stay home.

  • http://www.ssce.net/Web-Articles/Web-articles-indexed-authors.html#authors-l JLenardDetroit

    looked like a handicapping of a race and little more, but hey – you guys have seen his behavior far more than I have. I expected much stonger evidence. — Now ragging on him about his confrontational attitude and holding grudges is another thing ;-)

    It really makes me ill to sound like Rodney King “Can’t we all get along?” ;-) lol

    If he is indeed a bad influence, just ban him out-right. Take care friends.

  • Scope

    as dld has done. It seems that whenever he posts, he ignites the passions of the Conservatives. He keeps repeating the same thing over and over and over again. To ignore warnings from the moderators, more than once, is bannable in my opinion. It crosses the line. Many of us have been warned, and we have taken that warning to heart.

  • Scope

    as dld has done. It seems that whenever he posts, he ignites the passions of the Conservatives. He keeps repeating the same thing over and over and over again. To ignore warnings from the moderators, more than once, is bannable in my opinion. It crosses the line. Many of us have been warned, and we have taken that warning to heart.

  • Martin Knight

    It’s thinking like yours that has brought the GOP down to its current low status. To be even more blunt; people like you are slow-acting poison.

  • Martin Knight

    … only moderates if you agree with the New York Times definition of it.

  • eburke

    “And if the Republican jellyfish is shaped by a Democrat container then it might as well be Democrat for all the good it does.”

    Nail…that was Mr. Hammer

  • The_Gadfly

    And I’m deadly serious. You rant against Toomey on this site as though he were Specter. You do the same for every other conservative running in every other race anywhere in the country while claiming the rest of us just don’t get it.

    Well guess what, if Toomey runs against Specter in the general, it will be a landslide for Toomey. Specter is joined at the hip to the corruption in DC and that is something PA residents won’t forget, regardless of party, and as long as the machines in Philly and Pittsburgh don’t corrupt the general election. I know. I grew up in PA and that’s where my heart still lives. In some ways, it’s sort of like being from Texas, no matter where you live, you still know where home is.

  • The_Gadfly

    I had you pegged for a purple or red trending purple state myself, but of all the directors and other IPs on this board, you’re one of the top contenders for the ‘run somebody who can win’ strategy. Amazing!

    But maybe I remember that more than others because I’m a strong advocate for the ‘stand on principles even if you occasionally lose’ strategy and we’ve gotten into it once or twice on that issue.

  • http://www.hakubi.us/ Neil Stevens

    If I were in Connecticut or Maine I might feel differently, but California’s more like a Pennsylvania: huge and hugely diverse.