and Geraghty also has another insiders view article about the McDonnell/Deeds race-

HORSERACE

Avalanche of Mud Predicted in Virginia

One of the sharp guys I turn to for insight in Virginia state politics ? who talks to some well-connected Democrats in the commonwealth as well ? has shared some more thoughts.

First, he hears that the Democrats put a lot of stock in Rasmussen’s latest, and that a nine-point McDonnell win would be a blowout of epic proportions that will also solidify Republican control of the House of Delegates. It will also likely lead to one or two defections in the senate, which would give the GOP complete control of Virginia, at least for the next two years.

That kind of control would enable Republicans to draw redistricting maps to strengthen their position in Richmond and to shape the congressional districts that will need to drawn in Northern Virginia. Redistricting (and to a lesser degree, the courts) is what it is all about.

He adds that because the stakes are so high, there is no chance that either state or national Democrats will take this sitting down. He dismisses the rumor that the DNC was thinking of holding back some money. He suspects they are sitting on their resources to use it in a vicious smear attack that will begin in earnest when next week’s polling numbers look even more bleak than the current ones. He suspects it will be sustained, ugly, and upsetting. There is simply too much at stake. The only hope Democrats have now is to turn off enough middle voters ? particularly women ? that they can push independents out of the equation. They think, for good reason, that they have a fighting chance if it becomes a base-turnout war.

My source says he loves it when a Republican has a lead this large, this late in the campaign. But he notes we live in a new and especially vitriolic age, and that no Democrat he talks to thinks Deeds, or Jody Wagner (the candidate for lieutenant governor) and Steve Shannon (the candidate for attorney general), will show any restraint on what they roll with if they think it could help.

“I still believe voters hate bullies,” he concludes. “But if they are too confused or annoyed to care, they may hide in their living rooms instead if confront the bully.”

He’s also a little worried about GOP get-out-the-vote efforts . .
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As Jaded has said, the campaign advertisements by Deeds in VA have been very negative. If it is the D’s plan to hold the $5 million for a really nasty bad negative campaign blitz, watch the poll numbers for McDonnell and the other Republican candidates go out of the roof. The ads will only be attack ads, and will be even more proof that Deeds has no plans for VA, other than as Geraghty says, being a place holder. Pooh shame on you Mr. Deeds.