There could be a serious upset in a congressional special election this year and it is going under the radar. John Fund took notice of it yesterday.
David Harmer is the Republican running in a special election to fill Ellen Tauscher’s seat in Congress. The Democrat, Lt. Governor John Garamendi, is favored to win, but is only polling 41% to Harmer’s 34%.
Interestingly, poling in the area shows the favorability of the GOP is skyrocketing in that district. Nonetheless, the GOP would rather support a pro-gay marriage, pro-abortion, pro-union, ACORN supported Dede Scozzafava in New York’s 23rd Congressional District than spend any time or money on David Harmer’s race.
Having dug into the race, I can’t really add to what John Fund reported. The district is a Democrat leaning district, but the negativity toward the Democrats in the district is overwhelming.
David Harmer is a good candidate, but he needs money to get across the finish line. With the NRCC anticipating a black eye in New York’s 23rd, they won’t fully engage this race because they are fearful of two black eyes. Don’t get me wrong — the NRCC has done some work helping the candidate get up to steam, but right now the focus and money is going to Dede.
Polling, however, suggests this might really be the upset John Fund thinks it is. If you are a California Republican or anyone else who wants to take credit away from the GOP establishment by helping get a good guy elected without their help, you might want to consider sending David Harmer a few bucks or go lend a hand.
When these seats start falling into GOP hands, it will thoroughly destroy the last ounces of political capital that Barack Obama has.
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Caleb Howe
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I've had my eye on this race for awhile.
Third Street Tuesday, October 20th at 3:30PM EDT (link)Harmer can definitely win. And if he does, CA-10 will be only the first of many, many Democrat dominos to fall over the next year.
“Annual income twenty pounds, annual expenditure nineteen nineteen six, result happiness. Annual income twenty pounds, annual expenditure twenty pounds ought and six, result misery.” –Wilkins Micawber, “David Copperfield”
No money for the NRCC...
shadowtax Tuesday, October 20th at 3:43PM EDT (link)means no money from the NRCC for Harmer. It’s a shame what the NY special election is doing.
I can’t fault the NRCC and RNC for focusing support on the race in the GOP friendly district. The mission of the organization is to elect Republicans. Hopefully they take a look at the polls and throw some support to Hamer.
OK...there is a problem with your reasoning here
AceInTX Tuesday, October 20th at 6:15PM EDT (link)Isn’t Harmer a Republican? If he has a chance to win…and would be a more reliable vote for the caucus…why send the money to De De…when she had to have her arm twisted to sign a now new tax pledge and made noises that she won’t be bound by it a day later?
I’ve not had a huge issue with the NRCC the way I do with the NRSC and I think they were handed a crap sandwich when the county chairs selected De De…They’ve wasted money trying to prop her up because she won’t win from what I’m reading because either conservatives will push hoffman over the finish line…or De De and Hoffman will split the vote and the Dem will win…
The best the NRCC can do by pouring money into NY-23 is to avoid an embarrassing 3rd place finish for Scazoffava…Why not save that money and use it to fund another candidate who has a chance of winning…and avoid pissing off the base by continuing to push Scazoffava?
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I wasn't aware Scuzzy was a Republican (if you look at her views, that is). nt
Xasteius Tuesday, October 20th at 8:18PM EDT (link)Don’t leave the party, hijack it back!
Eternal vigilance is the price of freedom.
I volunteered last week to makes calls for Harmer and here's what I learned:
Cheryl Tuesday, October 20th at 4:23PM EDT (link)I called one list of registered Republicans who received absentee ballots asking them to vote for Harmer. Of those who I spoke with, they had either already voted or they were solid in voting Republican.
I also worked a list of “declined to state party” with one exception, all stated they were voting for Harmer and their spouses were voting the same.
I have been quiet on what I see going on in the campaign (I’m not given to showing the other side our cards). I will say there’s been a great turnout of volunteers.
Tonight there’s a speech at the Jelly Bean Factory in Fairfield. For those of you who don’t know this, Harmer’s father was Lt. Governor under Reagan and as a young boy, John Harmer use to raid the Gipper’s Jelly Bellies.
To win this seat would be sweet.
http://www.twitter.com/CherylAnnCA
I live in CA-10 and
BlueLandRed Tuesday, October 20th at 4:37PM EDT (link)it would be shocking if Harmer won. I did recheck the numbers in the special election we just had and the total Dem vote was 69130 while the Republicans gathered 37040. And there were about a 1000 total votes cast for Green, Peace and Freedom and AI parties.
Nor did the result surprise anyone, they were inline with the results from last Nov. It will of course all come down to turn out, but given the recent results in the very very low turn out special election we had last month and the large registration margin the Dems have in the district, I can see why the NRCC isn’t sending buckets of money to Harmer.
Still only being down 7 in a poll is does give some cause for hope.
I see there is a debate at St. Mary’s College coming up, I think I’ll go cheer him on.
you are right about turnout
Cheryl Tuesday, October 20th at 4:53PM EDT (link)and I understand a lot of dem voters don’t know they have to vote again (as I understand it, they had to vote a primary in Sept.).
Garamendi doesn’t even live in CA10. Did you hear Harmer on KSFO with Sussman?
I live in CA11.
http://www.twitter.com/CherylAnnCA
It's not so much about winning as it is about showing Dem weakness
scarlos Tuesday, October 20th at 5:40PM EDT (link)Having the Lieutenant Governor squeak by in a usually Solidly Democratic district against a person with no party backing would still be very bad for Obama, as this district is more Democratic than the State as a whole and voted for Obama about 65-33.
Winning would be even more so, but a close loss still hurts Democrats where it hurts, with their most vulnerable members.
Socialism is Oligarchy in disguise
A liberal is a person who thinks there is no problem that cannot be solved by consolidating more power in their own hands
I Agree - Even a 52%-48% Win for Garamendi...
IJB Tuesday, October 20th at 10:53PM EDT (link)…Would be absolutely demoralizing to CA and national Dems.
I think hoping for a Harmer win is probably a bridge too far.
But the NRCC should kick some cash into this race anyway, just to keep it close - the closer it is, the worse it looks for the Dems.
I think it'll be a little bit wider then that
zbigreddogz Tuesday, October 20th at 11:08PM EDT (link)But a 55/45 victory for a STATEWIDE OFFICE HOLDER against someone who, let’s face it, isn’t exactly a superstar, in a very liberal district in California would be a moral victory that would get some double takes.
If we win this by chance, it’ll send off shock waves across the country.
“At the top there are no easy choices. All are between evils, the consequences of which are hard to judge.” - Dean Acheson
Harmer may only be down by 2 points
noufa Tuesday, October 20th at 10:49PM EDT (link)“The Wilson Research Strategies poll notes that its numbers assume Republicans will turn out at about 29 percent – their share of the registration. But if the numbers are weighted according to primary turnout, when Republicans represented 35 percent of voters, Garamendi’s lead is down to 39-37.”
http://thehill.com/blogs/blog-briefing-room/news/62197-gop-survey-shows-race-for-tauschers-seat-could-be-tight
“Obama is not a centrist. He was never centrist. He is a uniter. He does reach across the aisle. But he always do so in pursuit of progressive ends.”
-Jonathan Stein of Mother Jones 1/31/08
I live in CA-10 also
GT350 Tuesday, October 20th at 5:33PM EDT (link)I’m going to stop by his office and sign up to volunteer. I’m embarassed that I haven’t done so yet. I did have a sign in my car during the primaries.
Can I just say how AWESOME Hoffman is in NY 23.....
JadedByPolitics Tuesday, October 20th at 6:45PM EDT (link)http://gatewaypundit.firstthings.com/2009/10/ny-23-conservative-hoffman-calls-on-rino-scazzafava/
My favorite part…heh
“Ryan was flabbergasted by the news that Scozzafava called police to question McCormack after the reporter followed her and asked her tough questions. “John was on the trail with Doug today,” said Ryan. “From everything I hear, he’s the most mild-mannered guy around. If any police investigation needs to take place, it should be of Dede Scozzafava, for impersonating a Republican.”
For impersonating a Republican …..SMACK :THWAP: heck yeah! That is the FIGHT I am talking about! Get me 100 more of him and WE will have the SMALL GOVERNMENT WE are looking for!
Whoever has his enemy at his mercy &
does not destroy him is his own enemy
I did it! I clicked on the link to contribute...
pythandmoan Tuesday, October 20th at 8:10PM EDT (link)and I feel good. It was easy. And I’m from Michigan. If a few more ads can get Harmer noticed by election day, who knows? Use these off year elections to start some shockwaves. Besides, after reading about Scozzafava’s cops episode, it feels kind of personal, even from way out here in the great lakes. Seriously though, just want to see a contested seat go solid C rather than some shade of purple.
Wait a minute...
Rich Fader Tuesday, October 20th at 8:32PM EDT (link)…he could beat Garamendi? Or at least press Garamendi like a cheap suit and make him and the Dems burn money holding the seat? Note to the NRCC: If you have an opportunity to rough up a sitting lieutenant governor from the other party when he’s running for another office, you bloody well do it. Period.
Those of you that live in the district...
redtillimdead Wednesday, October 21st at 11:18PM EDT (link)David Harmer needs help with his GOTV efforst on election day: http://www.harmerforcongress.com/volunteer.htm Sign up to help on Nov. 3!
Nancy Pelosi can kiss my asstroturf.