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EDITOR OF REDSTATE

This is an Owens-Hoffman Race Now

By: Erick Erickson (Diary)  |  October 29th, 2009 at 04:39 PM  | 

RESIZE: AAA

Allah Pundit notes a new poll by Research 2000 on behalf of the DailyKos. The race has Owens at 33 and Hoffman at 32. Scozzafava is all the way back at 21%. Wow.

Gov. Rick Perry and Congressman Trent Franks endorsed Hoffman today. Also, country music sensation John Rich is headed up to NY-23 from Nashville to help turn out the vote for Hoffman.

With a race this close and Hoffman’s base profoundly fired up, he could realistically win this race.

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COMMENTS

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  • Tbone

    The Republican leadership(oxymoron), should tell her to drop out of the race. It is obvious that Hoffman can win if she doesn’t suck away the ignorant Republican vote.

  • antisocial

    However I find the exit question interesting.
    —————
    Isn?t it true that the Democrats might not be unhappy to see Hoffman win this given the encouragement it would provide to third-party conservative challengers next year? And, conversely, that the GOP might not be sad to see Owens win, knowing what a stern cautionary tale this would be for right-wing independents mulling midterm runs of their own? Maybe that?s why the RNC is propping Scozzafava up, to keep bleeding Hoffman in hopes that Owens will eke it out. This way, even if they lose the battle to the Democrats in NY-23, they?re more likely to win the war next year.
    ————–

    How about this lesson ? Conservative base can bleed republicans to extinction if RNC does not choose conservative enough candidates. OR Republicans can not win elections without conservative candidates. For me personally, this is more of a fight between squishes(democrat lite) and conservatives.

    PS: Even the democrat is accusing Republican of raising taxes in this case. So a democrat thinks republican is too far to the left. Imagine that!!!!!

  • AceInTX

    Kind of lame…but at least they’re attacking the Democrat this time!

  • AceInTX

  • AceInTX

  • SirGladiator

    This isnt about parties, its about principle. If neither major party nominates a Conservative, we’ll still run one, and he will win, that is the message we’re sending. Quite frankly, after the way both parties have screwed things up in Washington it might actually be easier for Hoffman to be elected as a Conservative Party guy than if he were the Republican. Also worth noting is Dede’s number, 21 percent. This is from the group that ENDORSED her, the DailyKos, and if THEY’RE saying she only has 21%, she might really be in the low teens right now. I definitely like our chances to win this!

  • AceInTX

    Isn?t it true that the Democrats might not be unhappy to see Hoffman win this given the encouragement it would provide to third-party conservative challengers next year? And, conversely, that the GOP might not be sad to see Owens win, knowing what a stern cautionary tale this would be for right-wing independents mulling midterm runs of their own?

  • americanmale

    He’s so close to the epicenter on all of this. He can’t help but get tunnelvision every once and a while. We need to figure out a way to get Newt out of this with his head still held high. He’s a good trooper and i like having him on our side.

  • Xasteius
  • http://hillbillypolitics.com Steph C

    He hasn’t been on ‘our’ side for awhile now. It’s just now becoming apparent because he wasn’t all that active but his betrayal is darn near complete now, too.

  • Leopard1996

    Instead,it does seem that he wants to play kingmaker to solidify his presence in the party. Either stand for conservatism all the time or get the hell out of the way.

  • DONTTREADONME

    but I am concerned this is an effort to divide and conquer. I could be way out in the LEFT field on this, but everything the left does seems to involve subversion. Than again, its just me.

  • janis

    Why should we have to provide him with an out? Let his good friend and respected colleague, old Madame Botox, do him a solid. Or let the NRCC guide him out of the maze he worked himself into.

    Call it a reverse government plan. Think of it this way:

    Give a politician an excuse and he’ll keep screwing you over. Show him how to quit screwing you over and he won’t need excuses. (But this only works if a politician doesn’t WANT to screw you over. There are very few.)

  • Vegas_Rick

    does not deserve my consideration.

  • antisocial

    If he loses, I don’t know whether NRCC will learn the lesson.

  • UpLateAgain

    http://www.tcotreport.com/wholiedtonewt.html

  • IJB

    It’s back to Ian Fleming (paraphrased):

    Once is happenstance.
    Twice is a coincidence.
    Three times makes it a trend.

    Three polls, if you include this one, in the last week have shown Hoffman either ahead, or nearly tied with Owens, with Scozzafava back an 20% or less.

    These three results tell you all to need to know.

  • Jesse V

    I used to live in what was Newt’s district. I voted for him several times. When he ran from ran like a coward and resigned, I took it personally. I supported him. And when he made his comeback I thought he should be President.

    Now – I think he’s just trying to save his own skin. He could care less about us. All he really cares about is what will get him power and prestige.

    And that my friends is that. Sorry to say it. Sometimes the truth hurts.

    So, no outs for Mr. Gingrich. He’ll just turn tail and run again!

  • Jesse V

    Its up to the Conservatives and fiscal conservatives in NY-23 now. They have the momentum, they have America’s support! Its their time to shine and its up to them. to be the beacon on which we all show a united front. All Americans have provided support, both monetarily and morally and now we leave it to NY-23.

    Its the last stand before the big battle. This is the shot heard around the World! Come’on NY-23 makes us all proud. Lets start beating back the socialist scourge that has infiltrated our great land!

    Let us stand proudly beside you as you claim the first victory in the battle to take back our America!!!!!!!! Let us stand triumphantly with you as you proudly proclaim that “We the People” still rule this land!

    Let us stand hand in hand with you, as you, NY-23, make it known to the socialist/looters in Washington that they no longer rule us but that “We the People” are the sovereign rulers of America!

    We’re behind you! Show the rest of the Country what we are all made of and what we all believe is best and right for America!

    Make us all proud NY-23!

  • Rod_Patrick

    Conservative Party members in NY are independent – independent of GOP’s instruction.

    CP generally votes Republicans, if they find the candidates “conservative enough”. If not, they run with their own candidates.

    So, asking Hoffman to be a GOP means asking “too much”, i.e., giving up his principle of independence.

  • AceInTX

    Hoffman sought the nomination as a Republican and decided to run on the Conservative Party ticket only after the party bosses hand picked Dede. He has said win or lose…he will be running for this seat in 2010 as a Republican.

    My question was a rhetorical one aimed at the argument above that by engineering a Hoffman win we;d be encouraging third party runs across the country…

    What I was driving at specifically was that if the Republican Party had any brains…it would dump Dede, get Hoffman elected and make it clear the party is backing him because he represents the best of the Republican Party and what it stands for…and it would encourage him to switch his party affiliation from the CPNY to the NYGOP as soon after the election is over as possible.