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51-34

By: Erick Erickson (Diary)  |  November 2nd, 2009 at 09:32 AM  | 

RESIZE: AAA

According to PPP, Doug Hoffman has raced into the lead against Owens, taking 51% to Owens’ 34%

The race, however, is not over and there is no guarantee the polling is even halfway accurate. That is not to slight PPP, it just happens to be a crazy race, with a last minute drop out, and lots of weekend polling scores to make up the foundation.

But, and this is a bit but, a lot of third party and internal polling does suggest Hoffman has gone into the lead. Likewise, it looks from PPP and other polling that even before Scozzafava dropped out, Hoffman had a big lead among Republican voters. Additionally, of the votes Scozzafava was holding on to, they were loyal Republicans and women.

If Hoffman can appeal to women, he should be okay. Scozzafava’s Republican votes will either go to him or stay home.

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COMMENTS

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  • mikedaire

    is that which happened to Scozzafava happens to the leadership within the NRCC and NRSC. I think it’s time to remove the Democrat’s fifth column in the Republican party.

    I’ve been itching for this fight since the late 80′s. Bring it on!

  • makemyday

    Could it be the PPP (democrat pollster) has listed big jumps for the conservative candidates to cut down on conservative voter turnout? Bad weather and the thinking that our candidates are too far ahead to lose may keep some people in bed.

  • Scope

    and I had a hard time believing that it is accurate. No matter, it incentivises even more to get out and vote for Hoffman, as some only vote for who they think will win. It’s a phychological thing at this point.

  • Scope

    nationally, not only locally, I would find it hard to believe that any living breathing human being wouldn’t want to be what can turn out to be an historical election. Fred wiill be there today, that hopefully will be another energizer.

  • Scope

    nationally, not only locally, I would find it hard to believe that any living breathing human being wouldn’t want to be what can turn out to be an historical election. Fred wiill be there today, that hopefully will be another energizer.

  • Scope

    hopefully will be another deterent to the ACORN tactics that I’m sure are already set up.

  • antisocial

    Hoffman Leads Owens 41-36%; Undecided up to 18%

    http://www.siena.edu/uploadedfiles/home/Parents_and_Community/Community_Page/SRI/SNY_Poll/23rd%20CD%20SNY%20Poll%20Release%204%20–%20FINAL.pdf

  • nycenterright

    Low information undecided voters will almost never vote for a third party.

  • MojoMan

    PPP is a Democrat polling outfit.

    By predicting such a huge win, the expectations bar for the Democrat Owens is lowered. Any result that is substantially better than this could be touted by the Dems as a solid showing. Pretty weak stuff. But from their point of view, it is at least worth a shot.

    On the other hand, if the polls are close and Owens ends up losing big, that could be quite an embarrassment for the Democrats.