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EDITOR OF REDSTATE

The Love Affair is Over: In 2008 Independents Proved They Weren’t Racist by Voting Obama. In 2009, Independents Vote GOP to Prove They Aren’t Socialist.

By: Erick Erickson (Diary)  |  November 3rd, 2009 at 11:37 PM  | 

RESIZE: AAA

New York’s 23rd Congressional District is, at this writing, too close to call, but it looks like the GOP Establishment’s candidate helped throw the race to the Democrat after the GOP spent $900,000.00 on her. That said, the Democrat’s lead keeps shrinking and there are 10,000 absentee ballots to count. We know for certain that if we combined the Republican and Conservative votes, that team would win.

What we do know for sure, from Virginia and New Jersey, is that in elections without the unusual circumstances of NY-23, is that the voters threw out the Democrats big time.

In Virginia, for the second time in history, the Republican Party swept all statewide offices. In New Jersey, despite multiple campaign trips by Barack Obama and his top pollster flown in to run Corzine’s campaign, Republican Chris Christie trounced Corzine. In Pennsylvania, the Democratic State entrusted its Supreme Court to the Republican Party, which could help the GOP in redistricting next year.

In every state in which Barack Obama campaigned for a candidate, the candidate lost. Too bad he did not make it up to NY-23.

More importantly, according to political expert Larry Sabato, there have only been two occasions when Virginia and New Jersey so thoroughly flipped to the opposite party: in 1993, before the GOP take over of Congress in 1994, and in 2005, before the Democrats took back Congress in 2006.

This signals the potential for great Republican gains in the House and Senate next year.

We also know, based on how Doug Hoffman is trending, that the GOP Establishment, if it continues to turn its back on the conservative base, will keep losing. Had the NRCC not so throughly botched NY-23, we would not be in this particular situation tonight.

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COMMENTS

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  • fotophun

    not be long before they will be calling everyone a racist

  • fotophun

    if this is a repeat of 1994
    the Dems have proved once and for all who they really are

  • corky

    This was a pretty safe Republican district that never went more than 38% dem. Now, the Dem is probably going to win.

    Maybe the local party knew what it was doing?

    On one hand, I can see that a district such as this might be worth getting a ‘more conservative’ pol in, because it has a little bit of wiggle room. I’m worried, though, that the blue districts with Republican incumbents will now be less safe simply because the zealots smell blood in the water.

  • gurdyourloins

    I thought that whole building on sand thing was working? guess NOT.! I’m curious what Bertha has to say?

  • WarEagle01

    from GOP politics and we don’t have another RINO in Congress. If this fiasco has taught me anything it is to not give one red cent to any of the national GOP organizations. Ever. Again. They are utterly worthless. $900,000 shat away on a Far-Left closet Democrat. Brilliant. Next year I am donating to individual candidates and outside groups period.

  • DONTTREADONME

    from the start, it is my belief that this eleciton would have turned D if it was Dodo or our man, the only difference would have been if no Hoffman you would shift the percentages to increase for the winner above 50%. That is as it stands right now 49%:45% to 52%:48% for Owens. With a three legged horse race it would have been 38%:34%:26 D:C:R. That is in my opinion.

  • JoeG

    Any swing house seat is presently held by a Dem.

  • USNJIMRET

    It is going to be interesting to see how the Nobama minions try to make it sound like their guy still has political mojo, even after this debacle.
    It is going to be a matter of telling the public that just because their eyes and the evidence clearly shows his “influence” was of no value at all to the Democrat candidate, they aren’t to believe that it changes anything at all…..and you just KNOW that is going to be the spin.

  • Mayhem

    NJ and VA were “not significant in the least,” I’m guessing that NY-23 will suddenly become very significant in the media talking points. In fact, it is a clear mandate for The One.

  • penguin2

    No matter the final outcome, we did not want a Leftist in office with an R after her name. If Owens wins and he goes along with Obama’s agenda, he will not fare well next year.

    The incumbent Dems and Republicans fool themselves, if they continue to ignore what the people are saying. We started with the Tea Parties, then the TownHalls, then the 9/12 March, and today’s voting is borne out of the same passion with the same message. Stop destroying our country.

  • udtiger

    Thanks DeDe

  • corky

    But, from what I understand, the pols were greatly in Dede’s favor beforehand.

    Also, you can’t simply shift percentages with this kind of thing. I mean, I’m sure there were a lots of Dede supporters who voted for Owens because Dede dropped out.

  • JoeG

    He apparently is the key to win it for the Dems.

  • WarEagle01

    who got together in the pizza parlor and decided the bestial Scozzafava would be the GOP candidate? Someone needs to show those geniuses the door as well.

  • DONTTREADONME

    got to your statistics book and check, three variables makes it diffcult to predict especially with a solid R and D two party mentality in the nation. You eliminate potential third party candidates and assume the best case for Dodo, she was not as liked in upstate as some would have you believe. Dodo’s endorsement or an R next to the name of Hoffman would have had a huge difference in my opinion. Probabilities are the name of the game here, and the assumptions have to be made based on the data of the polls and the demographics.

    So, to make a long story short, shifting the baseline percentages to match the outcome of this race with a strongly conservative candidate against a stark contrast of the democrat shows the best case scenario for scozzafava.

  • corky

    And may now find themselves in a similar situation.

    Look, I’m not saying that Hoffman wouldn’t have won if he were the original nominee…because its simply mental masterbation now. I simply want to question the reflexive support for hardcore conservatives.

    Redstate.com can afford to be purists. Politicians and organizations like the NRCC cannot.

    I mean, the Dems didn’t seem to have a litmus test for their reps in 2006/8. They simply said “Support any person with a D in their name and win @ all costs”. Now we have Bela Pelosi as Speaker to show for it.

  • Xasteius
  • Anteater

    We won big in Virginia; what a sweep!

    We won decisively in New Jersey; what a surprise!

    Pro-family won in Maine!

    So we lost two house races; not a big deal. I’d take the two governorships over two house seats gladly. The Virginia win will reverberate until 2012.

  • corky

    Yet none of it suggests shifting the baseline percentages is logical.

  • USNJIMRET

    I even used that specifically when the RNC called today asking for a donation.
    If you donated a dime to any of the National level ‘Committees’ in recent times, you have every right to be monumentally PISSED at the total waste of damn near a million bucks on a Congressional Candidate who threw her endorsement to the Democrat and then STILL won enough votes to make the Dem the new Congress Critter.
    Not one dime, not one thin dime to the National Committees until this insanity is stopped!
    State and local candidates only.

  • gurdyourloins

    Call me anything you must , just don’t call me late for dinner! I am pretty sure I just heard Chris M on mslsd soil himself. LOL

  • americanmale

    If our country was based upon a “states rights” (new federalism) philosophy such as Ronald Reagan put forth in is 1982 speech, I’d be jumping for joy on Christie and McDonnell. However, the government we have now is structured as a top – down, federally centric dictatorship.

    Christie and McDonnell are dependent upon top down funding. And because they now have the big R next to their name, just as we do in Lilltle Rhody, all that is going to happen is that they get handcuffed.

    Hoffman needed to win. We needed him to win. If for nothing else but for principle and the 1 no-nonsense house vote. And, it didn’t get it done. We had sarah, tim, rush, sean, erickson (the true marshall) and for some reason, that wasn’t enough.

    Of course the GOP, NRCC, RNC are all to blame. But i also lament…does the country have to completely fall off the cliff before people wake up?

  • DONTTREADONME

    look at economic circumstances of the district and state and compare to other districts around the country. The best chance to find a district that would act like NY-23 is maybe PA or MI. You have to match up the moods and the general affluence of the area. Usually areas which experience booms seem to be very conservative before they go blue, i.e. economic situations dictate that more jobs are available and those from the blue districts with job loss move to the areas of job abundance and place candidates in that reflect the views of what they created in the place they left. I find it hard to believe that you are unable to grasp the concept of what transpired in NY-23?

    NY-23 has nothing on VA where I live in Prince william county, you can get a conservative elected in my district but 0bama’s election shifted a slight percentage of the majority in my district with an increase in non-traditional voters. However, during times of affluence for the area the district started pushing left to compensate for the demand of the transients, we pushed and pushed and fell apart, now the area is facing tough times and to compensate the D’s raise taxes to meet the budget. That turns the voters off considerably to liberal ideas; however, that said as the district becomes more urban a base develops that becomes dependent on the costs and expenditures of Government; therefore, ipso facto eventually the district will become an impoverished welfare area while those that can create jobs and with higher education move onto the next area to consume the prosperity and impoverish another group. Do you see the drill?

  • treeofliberty

    Olbermann was running baseball highlights during Corzine’s concession speech ! And they either didn’t cover Christie’s speech or cut away in the middle of it!

    haha sore losers!

  • writeblock

    If I remember correctly, it was always a matter of principle. There should have been a minimum consensus on issues beyond which no self-respecting Republican should be expected to tolerate. Scozzafava was wrong on taxes, wrong on cap and trade, wrong on cultural issues. What was she doing in the GOP? And what was the GOP doing endorsing her? The district, after all, was not THAT liberal. It was moderate. Scozzafava was not moderate.

    In any case, we have plenty of cause to celebrate tonight, not least of which was the win by McDonnell which creates a new star in the GOP. He’s a Reaganite right down the line. He’s an impressive campaigner. He’ll be free in 2012 to run for president when his governorship expires. And I’d bet he’d win if he does well in VA. So we may lose Hoffman this time around–but we picked up a supernova. Even if he doesn’t go for the top slot–he’d be terrific as v.p. as well. It’s been a good night.

  • corky

    A district that never votes for a Democrat voted for a Democrat.

    The Republicans have the momentum this year (see also, VA and NJ) and should have won it easily. When I say Republicans, I mean someone with an “R” next to their name…not a conservative purist.

    Lastly, I’m not saying I’m correct. I’m only pointing out the meme that “RINOs are to be destroyed” might not be the best approach.

  • OccamsRazor

    Let the Dems keep their heads in the sand.

    Stop Telegraphing the direction of this fine Nation. Stop telegraphing because I just upgraded my Cotsco membership and popcorn is at a discount these days.

  • Whitehorse

    Hoffman didn’t have a solid one.

    It is huge that independents swung so decisively to the Republicans based on not wanting what Obama & the Dems are selling. Think what can happen in 2010 if Republicans get a cogent message based in conservative Republican principles?

    It is funny that the candidate for whom Biden campaigned won, & Obama’s lost…

  • Leopard1996

    1. Stated she supported Card Check legislation pretty much handing the entire labor economy to the unions

    2. Supported the stimulus package

    3. Would be a vote for the Health Care reform currently proposed by Obama, Pelosi, and Reid.

    All that would have done would have given the Dems cover for their B.S. and they would be allowed to say that it was all “bi-partisan”.

    Being “bi-partisan” was a part of the problem in 06 and 08.

  • Leopard1996

    As well as how we conservative activists screwed the pooch by supporting Hoffman over Scozzofava, and how we are trying to hi-jack the GOP and take it to irrelevance because we are only going to support “Extreme right wingers”.

  • qurys

    And baseball highlights is news! We wouldn’t want to follow the lead of FNC now, would we?