Talking to Andy Roth at Club For Growth, I’ve gotten a few tips on things to look out for in New York tonight. By the way, if you are looking for a place to send some money, consider that the Club got in early for Doug Hoffman and did great work. We’re going to need their coffers replenished for 2010. Go join now and give.

The eastern part of the district is where Owens is strongest. He was leading there before Dede got out of the race, and her exit should not change much there. Do not be worried if Owens comes out ahead in Clinton, Essex, and Franklin Counties.

The western part of the district is the most conservative. This should be strong territory for Hoffman. The counties are Madison, Oneida, and Oswego. Oswego is the largest county in the district.

The northern part of the district is Dede’s home area, where she was strongest. She will likely still retain more votes here than anywhere else. Hoffman should win here, but if we see Owens doing well in this area, we will know that Dede’s supporters are moving in the wrong direction. St. Lawrence and Jefferson Counties are the big ones here, and there is also Lewis.

Finally, there are two small counties, Hamilton and Fulton, which are in the Albany media market. Because of superior resource allocation here by the Dems, we suspect that Owens wins here.