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If A Senator Votes for Cloture, She is Voting to Pass Health Care

By: Erick Erickson (Diary)  |  November 20th, 2009 at 01:00 AM  | 

RESIZE: AAA

There is a study out today that is damaging to the Democrats efforts to pass health care in the Senate.

On Saturday, when constituents cannot contact their Senators’ offices because they’ll be closed, the United States Senate will vote on a cloture motion to debate the health care legislation.

This is important — a vote in favor of cloture on the motion to proceed (a parliamentary issue) is, in effect, a vote for the health care legislation. Why? Because Harry Reid has enough votes to pass the health care legislation by a simple majority, but he does not have the 60 votes necessary to proceed to debate, any Senator voting for cloture is voting for the health care plan.

Roll Call reports that according to the Congressional Research Service, “[a] study of Senate voting patterns shows the chamber has approved more than 97 percent of all bills subject to a cloture motion to begin debate — a finding that could undercut Democratic efforts to paint a key health care vote on Saturday as procedural.”

In fact, “since 1999 the Senate has approved 97.6 percent of all bills when lawmakers first voted to begin debate.”

Some Senators, like Blanche Lincoln of Arkansas, want the health care legislation to pass, but know politically she would lose if she voted for it. So unless pressure is brought to bear on her and others, she may vote “yes” on cloture for the motion to proceed and then try to hide behind a no vote later.

We cannot let that happen. Call your two Senators all day today and demand they vote no on the motion to proceed. The phone number to call is 202-224-3121.

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COMMENTS

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  • jeffreywturner

    Hasn’t Lieberman already thrown down the gauntlet and declared he won’t support cloture?

    So, unless Snowe or Collins has had a change of heart, the bill is DOA right? I mean we don’t need Lincoln or Nelson as long as Lieberman and the ladies from Maine hold firm, right?

  • http://www.theprecinctproject.wordpress.com ColdWarrior

    This vote will be a defining moment regarding who, in the Senate, is FOR you and who is against you.. You will learn who your enemies are. I said “you” and “your” because this is a vote AGAINST the individual citizen.
    Thank you.
    ColdWarrior
    www.theprecinctproject.wordpress.com

    P.S. Call Sen. Tom Coburn first thing tomorrow morning and demand answers as to what made him “go wobbly.” Go here:
    http://www.redstate.com/realquiet/2009/11/19/i-want-names-coburn-gets-torpedoed-by-friendly-fire/

    P.P.S Under the status quo, every Republican incumbent knows they have about a 93 per cent chance of getting re-elected. And, every Republican congresscritter knows that his Republican Party has HALF its precinct committeeman slots VACANT, on average, nationwide. Further, if he sees no indication that that status quo is changin;, that is, he sees no indication that conservatives are flocking into the Republican Party to fill up the HALF of the existing precinct committeeman slots that are UNFILLED, what incentive does the Republican congresscritter have to vote against the unconstitutional bill?

    Next question: If you are a conservative, and you are not yet a precinct committeeman in the Republican Party, why aren’t you?

  • Menlo

    The one to end debate also requires 60 votes. All the Democrats have pretty much supported the first cloture vote on Saturday, with some claiming they hope to change the bill.

    It’s confusing, and I don’t know the detailed rules, but I do know they still have another 60 vote requirement to end debate.

    I agree though that we should fight this vote too.

  • Illinicon

    but he hasnt said anything on debate cloture. Nelson also has said he wont vote for a bill that is doesnt have Stupak type language in it but not anything on blocking debate. I feel that if Reid follows normal Senate rules that this thing would be fillibusted on the cloutre for voting on the bill, but if it passes the debate vote Reid can do some unsavory things like the nuke option or limit admendments on the bill.

  • http://erickbrockway.wordpress.com/ Erick Brockway

    You only need cloture once.

    After cloture has been invoked, the following restrictions apply:

    * No more than thirty hours of debate may occur.[8]
    * No Senator may speak for more than one hour.
    * No amendments may be moved unless they were filed on the day in between the presentation of the petition and the actual cloture vote.
    * All amendments must be relevant to the debate.
    * Certain procedural motions are not permissible.
    * The presiding officer gains additional power in controlling debate.
    * No other matters may be considered until the question upon which cloture was invoked is disposed of.

    If true only a 50 vote majority would be needed to pass in the end. The ones like Blanche Lincoln could vote “No” at that time, knowing they already voted “Yes” in the beginning.

  • writeblock

    My understanding is that there are two filibuster situations: the first concerns the vote to proceed to debate. Reid has the 60 votes for that. But once debate begins, it would take 60 votes for cloture after the ten hours are up. That’s when Lieberman or Nelson or Lincoln might vote against cloture, sustaining the GOP filibuster and sinking the bill. Am I wrong about this? It can be confusing.

  • http://www.ssce.net/Web-Articles/Web-articles-indexed-authors.html#authors-l JLenardDetroit

    Time to rush more Rock Salt, or she will pull another (Snowe vote – Snowe’s (Gang of Sicks) vote wasn’t needed to move HC fiasco from Senate Finance Committee (simple 50% majority would have done)) “I will Vote for it so I can Vote against it later” BS… THIS TIME HER VOTE IS NEEDED to get closer to 60 and before she knuckled-under in the name of BI-PARTISANSHIP DISEASE. She cannot be trusted and must be deluged with Calls and more Salt!

    Send McCain some fake “Aricept” Prescriptions – to help send the message of his FAULTY MEMORY that he is supposed to be a CONSERVATIVE REPUBLICAN!

    There is NO EXCUSE for any Republican to Vote under the BS cover of “Debate” at this point, we’ve been down this road too many times. We’ve debated it, the Polls show people don’t want it, Debate could have and should have been in made in the open working of the Reid Bill rather than behind closed doors…..

    No matter what their recent positions have been CLAIMED TO BE any of the The Senate HC “Gang Of Sicks” cannot be trusted to hold that position without hearing from us in every form possible – emails, site posts, phone calls, call Conservative PACs to rush Ads to TV, etc….

  • http://www.ssce.net/Web-Articles/Web-articles-indexed-authors.html#authors-l JLenardDetroit

    Now that the ObamaStash is running dry:

    (h/t: Ronald Buckhalter here)

  • bk

    I thought this vote was to bring it to the floor so they can START debate on the bill itself. Then they get into amendments and so on and eventually hold a cloture vote to end the debate and take a vote on the bill. It’s that second one that EB is describing – when they take the final cloture vote, there is some time left for closing out the debate.

    Not sure whether they need this extra “pre” cloture vote in order to start the real debate because it didn’t go through any committees or because they always do that. People like Lieberman and Nelson seemingly plan to vote to start the debate without promising to vote for cloture at the other end.

    But then again, I read somewhere that Reid is trying to use some sort of trick where he switches bills or something that leads to just this one cloture vote. That would be his perfect scenario – the united Dems want to debate despite the obstructionist GOP, and the redstate Dems can then vote no on the final bill and it still passes.

  • earlgrey

    After the doc fix surprise, I doubt that the vote would be scheduled if they did not have the votes. I have been reading about the deals the blue dogs have been making to change their positions. It really is shocking to me how quickly tough stances have changed.

    I called Nelson’s office yesterday and they took my name and zip code even though I told them I was not from Nebraska. They were nice, but Nelson’s statements yesterday indicate he is for debate.

    Lincoln’s line has been busy/full.

    I have not tried Landrieu. Louisiana gets extra funding in the Senate bill.

  • orlandosun

    I called i live in florida and mail box full so no message could be sent.
    i think it is done on purpose.
    in 2010 vote out all the democrates and republicans and start fresh
    we need to send a message
    take back america.and in 2012 also

  • LSUTiggs

    this going on, I believe this bill will ultimately pass. The real question is what happens after? Will the American people take this lying down? Will the states nullify it as being blatantly UNCONSTITUTIONAL?

    At the end of the day, the people themselves are going to have to correct this by force, not just at the ballot box. That may not be good enough. Why do I think we are heading towards a real civil war? We’re at the breaking point.

  • LSUTiggs

    this going on, I believe this bill will ultimately pass. The real question is what happens after? Will the American people take this lying down? Will the states nullify it as being blatantly UNCONSTITUTIONAL?

    At the end of the day, the people themselves are going to have to correct this by force, not just at the ballot box. That may not be good enough. Why do I think we are heading towards a real civil war? We’re at the breaking point.

  • proudgop

    A new Zogby poll in Arkansas finds Sen.Blanche Lincoln (D-AR) in a tight race for re-election.

    In possible match ups, Lincoln barely edges Gilbert Baker (R), 41% to 39%, but beats Kim Hendren (R) handily, 45% to 29%.

    Key finding: “But when voters were asked how they would vote in a Lincoln-Baker race if Lincoln voted in favor of the health care legislation, the incumbent Democrat fell behind her possible GOP challenger 37-49. In all, 48% of likely Arkansas voters said they would be less likely to back Lincoln’s re-election if she supports the health care bill with 38% saying they were much less likely to support her in that event.”

    If Lincoln votes for cloture she is voting for health bill

    Do we know if Snowe and Collins are locked up on our side?
    Has Byrd been present in Senate lately?

  • louisiana

    Just heard on FOX news that $100 million has been added to the bill to benefit Louisiana. Coincidence? I don’t think so! I just fired off an e-mail to her yesterday telling her I didn’t care what how much money they promised our state, I wanted her to vote No to proceed.
    As usual, bribes will win out. Since she’s not up for reelection until 2016, I guess she’s not worried. By then she’ll have a high paying job in the healthcare bureaucracy promised to her for her vote.

  • jeffreywturner

    I believe cloture is required a second time to end debate.

    However, I think there is one situation where a simple majority is needed, and that is on the conference report (ie: after passage, when the bill has been merged with the House version). My understanding is, that this can not be filibustered. So, they could pass it without the public option with 60 votes, then the public option could be re-inserted during the merging with the House version, and then it would only need 50 votes (+ the VP) to pass the Senate when it comes back from conference.

  • momtotwo

    If this bill passes on Saturday, can it be reversed?

    If Republicans win enough seats in 2010, can this be undone? Can parts of it be fixed? Since the healthcare doesn’t actually begin until 2013, why can’t this be reversed?

    If anyone knows, please let me know. Is the fight over on Saturday? I need to know what we can do if this passes.

  • Hooah_Mac

    It is 2009, and Senators serve for 6 years. How could it be 2016 before she is up for reelection? I think you made a typo.

  • cjohnson

    He does deserve to be applauded for his independence, however he votes.
    http://winstonscat.blogspot.com/2009/11/lieberman-doesnt-seem-worried.html

  • sertelt

    Sadly, it looks like Nelson will vote for clotureon Saturday but without the Stupak amendment he will vote against cloture on final passage. http://www.lifenews.com/nat5690.html

  • sertelt

    Sadly, it looks like Nelson will vote for clotureon Saturday but without the Stupak amendment he will vote against cloture on final passage. http://www.lifenews.com/nat5690.html

  • dudette

    senators and staffers—lines busy and emails kicked out because the mailboxes full.

  • sammyc

    Am I mistaken or is it not true that 60 votes are needed for cloture but if the debate then begins only 51 votes are needed to pass this travesty? Every senator should be a target. Who cares about what is going to happen next election? We should be more concerned with what happens tomorrow. I am sick to death of dirty politicians.
    I just find it so hard to believe that this vote is even legal. And I see the life that both my husband and I worked so hard to achieve circling the drain.

  • earlgrey

    Dont’ forget the local offices for those of you close to one. Either call or visit if you can’t get through and are so inclined.

    Also note: The mammogram screening panel has also suggested reduced screening for cervical cancer. This just out today.

  • writeblock

    …there is the possibility of a filibuster. This is because there is an initial vote on whether to proceed to the conference report. That initial vote–whether to bring the conference report to the floor or not–can be filibustered if I’m not mistaken.

  • dave_in_atl

    If this bill passes the only way it can be undone is with a super-majority vote to override what would be a guaranteed veto by Obama…. after 2012…. probably still a super-majority to overcome a filibuster by the democrats.

  • jeffreywturner

    It would make sense that they could filibuster a motion to take up the measure on the conference report just like on anything else, but not the motion to close debate because it is not something that can be amended, so there should be a limit to the amount of debate allowed.

    If this is the case, then clearly the liberals won’t be able to “sneak in” the public option after the 60 vote hurdle is cleared.

  • Richard Mullins

    and I’m sure by that time I’ll have my airline going in Lake Charles. I’ll vote against her for sure anyways.

  • Sean Davis

    Before the Senate can begin debate on any measure, it must move to proceed to that measure. And a motion to proceed is debatable, which means that it is filibusterable.

    Once the Senate moves to a bill, that bill is actually debatable, which means that it can be filibustered. If cloture is invoked on that bill (the filibuster is killed), the Senate must then vote on final passage.

    So here is the process (I’m ignoring any amendments that may be offered to the bill): vote on cloture on the motion to proceed (60 votes), vote on the motion to proceed (51 votes or a majority), cloture on the underlying bill (60 votes), final passage of the bill (51 votes or a majority).

  • writeblock

    …there’s a lot of posturing to achieve maximum political advantage. Landrieu is a good example of how the game is played. Her state was rewarded lavishly for her supposed indecision. By the same token, there are those senators who are not bribable because a yes-vote would put them at political risk back home. The unknown is whether voting one’s liberal ideology supercedes committing political suicide. I personally doubt it. This is one issue that can’t be ducked. It’s an issue people know and care about. It can’t be fudged by voting trickery. And few senators will be willing to fall on their swords to help a flailing president who just dropped below 50% in the polls.

  • writeblock

    …by way of constitutional challenges in the Supreme Court. Passage of this bill would not be the end of the legal conflicts. And you’re right. We have more to resent than the original founders suffered under King George. This is a similar threat to liberty itself–only worse. It is a step toward rationed care and governmental intrusion into the most private aspects of our lives. People are near the explosion-point as a consequence.

  • IJB

    See here:

    Conference reports are privileged. And in the Senate, a motion to proceed to a conference report is not debatable, although Senators can generally filibuster the conference report itself. The Congressional Budget Act of 1974 limits debate on conference reports on budget resolutions and budget reconciliation bills to 10 hours in the Senate, so Senators cannot filibuster those conference reports. (2 U.S.C. ? 636, 2 U.S.C. ? 641e.)

    You can’t amend them, and though go right to debate (motion to proceed not necessary), but the debate on them can be filibustered.

    Only ‘reconciliation bills’ can’t be filibustered.

  • writeblock

    …not on the bill itself. He will probably join with the GOP on the second cloture vote.

  • writeblock

    …is that once amendments are proposed, things change. If the trigger option is adopted, for instance, Snowe might vote for cloture. Lieberman might also go for the trigger option. Nelson won’t, especially if they reject a stronger pro-life amendment–but that would still mean passage–unless somebody like Bayh sided with Nelson–which is a possibility. Then there is Lincoln who is politically at risk…In other words, voting to proceed means added potential for passage, but it’s not at all certain.

  • earlgrey

    I think they will go for trigger. They are letting Lieberman take the heat for opposing the public option and then they’ll all support the trigger as a compromise.

  • http://conservablogs.com/theconservativecrawfish/ reelman

    LANDRIEU: ARROGANT POLITICAL WHORE
    ?The Louisiana Purchase: $100 Million Payoff to Buy Sen. Landrieu?s Vote?? Nov 20, 2009.
    ==========
    Our democrat senator Mary ?I use my Daddy?s name for political reasons? Landrieu sold her vote once again?this time senator Reid bought her services (vote) for $100 million tax dollars to La.
    What did the state get? $100 million for Medicaide?
    What did America get? Nationalized Health Care (by a bankrupt gov-meant) that funds abortion, covers illegals and creates over a hundred unelected boards and panels to ration your heath care. A huge bill that you aren?t allowed to read and will drive up costs as all gov-meant things do. A bill that does not address portability, tort reform or buying across state lines. A bill full of fines and penalties for not buying insurance. A bill where nobody wins but federal employees who are exempt!
    It does not matter to political whores what the nation wants or if America is more than broke?political whores are like that.
    What can you expect from a person that refuses to use her married name (political reason of course), has the welfare crowd bussed to the polls and votes about 90% of the time as a tax & spend liberal but pretends to be a moderate?
    What can you expect from a coward that refused to have voter meetings in large enough buildings to avoid the challenge of defending her votes (or her party)?
    What can you expect from an avowed Catholic who votes the anti-Catholic line year after year (like Pelosi)?
    What can you expect from a ?public servant? who is always ?making up her mind? (for months) bill after bill till the very last (to avoid being challenged?like a coward would) instead of taking a stand?
    What can you expect from a snake that winks and nods to vote reasonably for the people about 5% of the time (when not needed for the bill to pass) so she can run on those few votes the next time?
    Just another disgusting member of the (14% approval) royal congress living in selfish socialist Oz land.

    http://conservablogs.com/theconservativecrawfish

  • momtotwo

    If enough people went to DC tomorrow and caused a traffic jam, the Senators wouldn’t be able to get there to vote at 8:00.

  • memez

    What is meant by 5555, please?

  • louisiana

    Had to go out of town right after I posted. You’re exactly right! Guess I can’t add very well with my brain on fire. I’m just so frustrated that she is so obviously being bought, and could care less about her constituency.

  • louisiana

    Bayoubuzz.com to read about the bind LA is in regarding medicaid payments. Type in medicaid in their search box. Of course it in NO WAY excuses her behavior should she decide to vote to proceed or votes for this bill in any form.
    She’s already bragging about getting between 100-300 million for LA on her website. I guess she thinks getting this bribe money justifies pimping herself out.

  • jeffreywturner

    So then, you are saying that whatever comes out of conference MUST pass the 60-vote hurdle at least once.

    If this is the case, then passing it without the public option and slipping it back in during conference will not get them around the 60 vote requirement on the public option.

    If this is the case, and we are to believe Lieberman and the Maine ladies, then the public option (bka the government takeover) is dead.

  • Menlo

    While it will have to clear those additional hurdles, and they will have to make a so-called “public option” a trigger or some other mechanism to get it to pass, you make a mistake in making this “public option” seem like a worse part of the bill than anything else. The “government takeover” is actually STRONGER with this “exchange” that they are setting up.

    All they do is contract out a “public option” to the big insurance companies and use your taxpayer dollars to fund the companies. The income tax increase (if you don’t have government insurance) will still be there. The government will still fund it once premiums exceed a certain percentage of one’s income. Who knows what they will do should premiums on all policies reach the cost of the taxable “Cadillac” plans.

    To think the “public option” would crowd out the insurance companies under their setup is delusional. It will likely cost people more and carry a stigma people won’t want. People will buy government-funded, government-mandated, and government-written policies in the “exchange” administered by “private” insurance companies. The insurance companies become de facto agencies of the government.

    The “public option” is no worse than any other part of the bill.

  • Menlo

    They need 60 votes to begin debate (planned Saturday and will pass), 60 votes to end debate, and if they don’t do it as a budget bill (unlikely), they’ll need another 60 after conference. However, the Senate can only amend it before the second vote.

  • http://www.theprecinctproject.wordpress.com ColdWarrior

    What is ?5??
    When someone uses ?5? as a posting title, or some other derivative, such as ?55555? or ?5!? or ?5**5?, they are ranking the comment/diary as a ?5 out of 5?. In the olden days of RedState, it was possible to rank comments and/or diaries, but that capability was removed due to (as I understand it) some abuses that occurred. When someone ranks your diary or comment as a ?5?, it?s a compliment.

    Read all about this and the other Redstate lore and “how tos” here:

    http://www.redstate.com/bs/2009/11/19/the-redstate-how-to/

    I recommend you bookmark that. I have!

    Thank you.
    ColdWarrior

  • jeffreywturner

    The bill is full of horrible crap.

    I was just making sure that I understood correctly, that the FINAL bill, whatever would actually become law if passed, would be required to pass the 60-vote hurdle.

    This is important, because it means that the Lincoln, Landrieu, etc. won’t be able to use the “that wasn’t in the bill when I voted for cloture on it” excuse.

  • Menlo

    They will not have that excuse, and it will be interesting to see whether one or more members of Congress lied, or if one or more cave on something they spoke vehemently against (but never pledged to oppose). Because one or the other will have to happen for the bill to pass.

    I only hope Republicans have the sense to vote down any amendment that removes or weakens a so-called “public option.”

  • jeffreywturner

    With Lieberman on record as prepared to filibuster the public option, and probably 30 or so Dem senators determined to include the public option at any cost, only about half the GOP senators will need to vote with them to keep the public option in the bill, thereby ensuring the bill’s ultimate failure to pass.