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What are the DNC and DSCC Seeing That We Aren’t?

By: Erick Erickson (Diary)  |  January 12th, 2010 at 07:01 PM  | 

RESIZE: AAA

Coming on the heels of Martha Coakley saying Scott Brown’s surge is “frightening”, I’m hearing tonight that the DNC and DSCC have rapidly deployed senior aids to Massachusetts to try to get the Coakley campaign under control and course corrected.

Internal polling on the Democrat side suggests that Brown has pulled to within the margin of error and public polls are reflecting this. The Democrats are panicked. The shaping conventional wisdom is that if Brown can just keep Coakley close, even if he does not win, he may fatally wound Obamacare by spooking vulnerable Senate Democrats.

This is getting interesting.

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COMMENTS

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  • Mayhem

    I want salt in the wound.

  • Swamp_Yankee

    New Rasmussen showing Coakley + 2. But the dynamic that hasn’t been analyzed is that the bulk of Coakey support comes from young voters, who have a poor record of showing up for special elections. Another traditional Dem block are seniors, who think its cold when it 50, not to be mean. But it will be a tough block to get out in January.

    Coakley internal memo confirms phone call:

    http://theplumline.whorunsgov.com/wp-content/uploads/2010/01/CoakleyforSenateUrgentMemo11010.pdf

    Washington Examiner is reporting that Ben Nelson is waffling again. We heard what Dodd said yesterday. If this thing is hanging by a thread, perhaps the Democrats know that anything close will tip a member or two off the fence.

    http://www.washingtonexaminer.com/opinion/blogs/beltway-confidential/Nelson-may-not-vote-for-health-care-reform-now-81268167.html

  • http://uslibertyjournal.blogspot.com/ daezy

    I hope the Right is counting heads. This is a critical win, and they will surely pull out all the stops.

    They cannot get away with corrupting this election, as they did in NY-23.

  • redhk

    Far-left agendas have consequences.

  • redhk

    Far-left agendas have consequences.

  • http://www.neoavatara.com/blog neoavatara

    Turnout on our side is key. Democrats outnumber us by 1 million in the state. If they have a moderate turnout, we need a great one. Independents will likely vote for Brown. It all comes down to getting the vote out. Low turnout=Brown victory.

    http://neoavatara.com/blog/?p=9444

  • Mayhem

    He’s only 99 percent certain.

  • clintonformccain

    This is probably as good a place as any to issue a public, “boy, was I wrong” on this race. It’s almost impossible to ponder how strong the anti-Democrat riptide has to be for this race to be a dead heat. I’m stunned.

  • http://seekingliberty.wordpress.com Fred Maidment

    …of all Republicans and Independents.

    Seriously, if the Dems largely just stay home (and their traditional blocks tend to stay home during specials) and the Rs and Is go to the polls, then it’s quite winable.

  • mbecker908

    I’m pretty sure the colleges are still shut down on election day. Thus the out of state kids will still be home.

  • http://conservativemountaineer.blogspot.com/ conservativemountaineer

    I want a convincing Win and a clear message sent. A “close” win will be contested and then (eventually) stolen (See, Franken, Al – Senator, MN). Hell, a convincing Win will probably be negated by an indeteriminable delay to seat Scott Brown. (Is indeterminable even a word?) A “close” loss might do something, but I doubt it.

  • Composer_Man

    Yes, I’m very happy that Brown raised over $1.3 million yesterday. And yes, I’m pleased that there are polls that show Brown not getting completely stomped on like a mouse in Mrs. Jumbo’s cage.

    But have I allowed myself to believe for one minute that he will win? Not on your life.

    I don’t deal well with disappointment after getting my hopes up. It’s one of the reasons I don’t really follow any sports teams closely. (Well . . . that and the fact that I don’t really like sports.)

    Anyway, I’ll believe it when I see Martha Coakley on TV thanking her campaign staff and telling us that despite her loss, we all need to try to carry on the work of our beloved Teddy.

  • joayn

    … from Coakley going to Washington for her “insider” fund raiser. Man, are these people eating stupid more and more or what?

    Martha: “I’m for the people of Massachu …. ooops, gotta go, lobbyists in Washington are calling – hold that thought!”

    The Democrats are right to be freaked out – but they still let her go to Washington. They just don’t see what we and everyone else sees. And for that we should be grateful.

    And, btw, my heartfelt thanks to David Gergen …

  • Swamp_Yankee

    “All polling indicates that a lower turnout is better for the Republican. The new Rasmussen Reports poll shows that Brown is ahead by two percentage points among those who are absolutely certain they will vote. A week ago, he trailed by two among those certain to vote. “

  • reaganiterepublicanresistance

    It’s starting to look to even the most grizzled chowder-head like Brown’s the guy who deserves the job, not some lackey foisted on the Commonwealth by a pompous Democratic establishment… so why don’t you give him a crack at it, New England?

    http://reaganiterepublicanresistance.blogspot.com

  • writeblock

    …and will send a clear message to Congress from the American people: cease and desist.

  • devon

    “Fifty-nine percent (59%) of voters think Coakley will win the election, while 33% expect a victory for Brown. ”

    This “she has it in the bag” thinking may discourage Dems from voting.

  • crazydaz

    the Dems will win. No more of this “I hope Brown wins, but I don’t think it will happen” type of thinking. Should that type of thinking persist in Mass., the outcome will be decisive towards the Libs as our discouraged base will sit at home and think “well, it might be close, but ‘Croakley’ is going to win anyways.”

    Whatever the outcome, BELIEVE that it could happen, and do what you can do in order to make it happen! Worry about the results later, not before the vote even happens!

  • Composer_Man

    Didn’t mean to come across as an “Eeyore” in my post above – definitely not my nature. (My wife’s nickname for me is Pollyanna, if that tells you anything.)

    All I was trying to convey in a pseudo-tongue-in-cheek fashion was that I want this to happen so much I can taste it. To have the seat formerly held by His Largeness, Ted the Great (Big), go to a Republican would be sweet, sweet, sweet indeed.

    I definitely believe it can happen. I wish I lived in Massachusetts and could vote for him early and often. As it is, I sent my money.

  • crazydaz

    …by doing what you could. I share your edge-of-the-seat hope; this is a huge election. Hang in there buddy, and stay frosty!

  • throwback59

    $650,00 on attack ads against Brown. Let’s not count our chickens while the wolves are outside the coop.

  • KeepOhioRed

    nt

  • SteveLA

    There’s something out here in CA called the Tom Bradley effect. Here’s a article from that unreliable source, Wikipedia on it.

    The effect comes down to mostly white people in CA saying to pollsters that they were going to vote for Bradley, who was African American, which resulted in a large lead in the polls for Bradley going into the election for Governor. Bradley lost the election after people voted differently in private than what they told the pollsters.

    Wondering aloud, how much does this sort of thing come into play in a very Democratic Mass which Obama carried by 22 percent and a vote for a Republican might be seen as a rejection of both Obama and the of the Democratic party. I’m not sure about the methods used by pollsters, but I’d think face to face ones some people might just say one thing, voting for the Donk, and doing something in private once they get behind the curtain.

    Next Tuesday is going to be very interesting.

  • orangemtl

    Good point. Why aren’t they throwing staff,money and effort into this?
    Not to mention the RNC itself: why isn’t Steele in Massachusetts pushing a Republican conservative candidate, instead of shilling for his new book?
    And if, by chance they ARE doing something: why don’t people know it? They should be making the Democrats work for this one, HARD. And lose anyway.
    So far however, Republican National Committee support seems to be a closely guarded secret. Until it changes, I’m keeping my hand over my wallet when they come a’callin’.

  • Jack_Savage

    Five Republicans ran for the school board with a platform of doing away with the diversity policy in school districting and instead supporting neighborhood schools. Looked like it would be a close loss from scattered polling data, but I believe all five won and changed the majority of the board from pro-diversity to pro-neighborhood schools.

  • http://www.the41stvote.org rcov092

    voter vault is such a waste he would be better off without.

  • Jack_Savage

    It’s time to be patriots again, guys.

  • 1stRichard

    Last election there was about 90% turnout in my town, just before there was an article in the news suggesting there was 15 to 20 percent on the voter list that no longer live in town or have died. Typically, this town has no more then 40% turnout. At the polls, no one reported a heavy turnout. When I complained I was told there was not the amount of complaints to justify an investigation.

    I hope someone is on top of the voting issues here in MA, dead people do vote

  • http://www.suvstrategery.blogspot.com SoFiMil

    If class is not in session, it’s going to be difficult to pay students to vote. http://athensnews.com/news/local-news/29533-ohio-dem-chair-scolds-gwinn-for-controversial-get-out-the-vote-program-for-ou-students

    Coakley?s in big trouble, especially since the trend/momentum is all going in Brown’s direction.

    Here?s the calendar for when local Boston-area universities begin instruction. Sorry to those schools I left out of this list.

    Northeastern University ? January 11th
    Boston University ? January 13th
    Emerson College ? January 19th
    Fisher College ? January 19th
    Suffolk University ? January 19th
    Wentworth Institute of Technology ? January 19th
    Massachusetts College of Art and Design ? January 20th
    Tufts University – January 21st
    Bunker Hill Community College ? January 25th
    Harvard University ? January 25th
    Massachusetts Institute of Technology – February 2nd

    http://www.northeastern.edu/registrar/cal0910-all-c.pdf
    http://www.bu.edu/reg/dates/odates-0910.html
    http://www.emerson.edu/registrar/upload/2009-2010-Academic-Calendar.pdf
    http://www.fisher.edu/continuing-education/dce-academics/academic-calendar-dce.html
    http://prod.campuscruiser.com/PageServlet?pg=home_calendar&cx=22.164
    http://www.wit.edu/prospective/academics/calendar.html
    http://inside.massart.edu/Academic_Resources/Academic_Calendar.html
    http://uss.tufts.edu/stuserv/acadcal/
    http://www.bhcc.mass.edu/inside/504
    http://www.registrar.fas.harvard.edu/fasro/common/calendar.jsp
    http://web.mit.edu/registrar/calendar/index.html

  • Next93

    As we learned in Minnesota, there’s always a few hundred more democrat ballots on hand when things look tight.

    If death can’t stop Illinois democrats from voting, a minor inconvenience like being out of state won’t stop Massachuset(e)s democrats. And has anyone polled illegal immigrants and prison inmates? While we’re at it, how about the zombie vote? Lobsters? There are a lot of lobsters in Massachusets, I’m sure most of them vote democrat.

  • Next93

    I didn’t even know there were any republicans left in Massachusets. If Brown is within 2 points of the seat Teddy died on, you gotta beleive that there are more than a few congresscritters in vulnerable districts who are feeling the chill of a mighty wind blowing up thier collective skirts. Add to this the fact that Nelson’s already a dead man walking for selling out on Obamacare.

    This is the best I’ve felt since last November; if the republicans in congress can grow a spine and hold off the most suicidal of the Dem ideas until the next session, there’s still a chance that the Republic can be saved from the mass suicide pact that 52% of the country signed back in November.

  • AceInTX

    I asked the same question a week ago…where are the NRSC and RNC…but I think Brown has asked that they stay out and not stir up the Dems…(I don’t know why that’s a consideration at this point).

    I think it was Aaron Gardner who made an excellent point for me in that, we don’t want the RNC and NRSC in this…if we pull this off without them…what will that say to/about the leadership in the establishment…it’ll be like a bucket of ice water on them and all their theorizing about safe vs vulnerable seats…maybe we’ll see challenges in hundreds of districts where there has never been a challenge to the Democrats.