« BACK  |  PRINT

RS

EDITOR OF REDSTATE

Evan Bayh to Retire

Evan Bayh is out in Indiana. Another sign of just how bad off the Democrats are.

I have two words: Go Marlin.

Guess I need to send Stutzman some more money.

UPDATE: It appears the deadline to collect 5,000 signatures for the GOP is noon tomorrow. I suspect that means the field will be as it is for the GOP with no additions.

Word is Congressman Ellsworth will be the guy for Democrats — the same guy who defeated Hostettler. He is pro-life and pro 2nd amendment. The Democrats will actually be able to run to the right of us on those issues in Indiana if we are stuck with Dan Coats.

COMMENTS

  • proudgop

    I hope Mitch Daniels runs now or Mike Pence reconsiders

    Filling deadline is 19th so Bayh didn’t leave his party with a lot options: wonder if Hill or Ellsworth gets in

  • http://www.erickerickson.org Erick Erickson

    I doubt Mitch will run. But if Pence gets in that shakes up the whole place and I suspect you’ll see the other guys get out and clear the field.

  • TxCon

    nt

  • jfindl2

    I was one of the first to say Stutzman had no chance and the party had to go w/ Coats b/c he could raise money and Stutzman could not. Bayh leaving obviates that argument, it is probably better to have a Senator who could be in the body for 20+ years as a solid conservative compared to one who is, at best, a two termer. So assuming then Democrats don’t get somebody competitive in, not a big risk considering they only have today and tomorrow to get enough signatures in to qualify for the ballot. Stutzman is definitely worth supporting.

  • jfindl2

    in each congressional district are due by tomorrow! So if Pence wants to get in, he has about an hour or two to decide to so.

  • MSU_Charles

    With all the retirements (i.e. not running because they will probably lose) occurring, if J.D. Hayworth were to begin polling strong and raise a respectable amount of money. Does anyone think that McCain might follow onto the retirement train?

  • http://www.hakubi.us/ Neil Stevens

    I want him to stay an executive, and not become a worthless Senator.

    I want him to run for President.

  • http://www.hakubi.us/ Neil Stevens

    … it’s the Democrats who are hurting more than the Republicans. It’s not a pure anti-incumbent mood.

  • vamoose

    that it’s just no fun being a Dem senator anymore? Perhaps the prospect of winning is a less pleasant thought than the prospect of losing for Bayh. It must really suck to get your marching orders from Harry Reid and the Obama White House.

  • smagar

    If not, then perhaps Stutzman is a safe choice as the Senatorial candidate. Pence can then, if all goes well of course, become a leader in the House, as opposed to a backbencher in the Senate.

    But, if I were Pence, and I saw a Senate seat ripe for the taking—-could I resist? We’ll see.

  • wgsampson

    in Indiana, do you think Marlin is the kind of guy who will get in on the DeMint/Rubio/DeVore/etc… action.

  • bk

    You could fill lots of 30-seconds ads with stupid quotes from him.

    Maybe IN can finally get a Senator who’s conservative for 6 years instead of just in election years.

  • youthgrunt

    are Hill or Elsworth. Both are fairly well known (more than any of the Republican possibles except Coats). Hill ran for US Senate against Coats before and lost. My guess is that Hill would lose to any in the field. Hill should lose his House of Rep seat this fall.

    Elsworth probably will not lose his House seat, so I would love to see him make the try for the Senate. It give the Republicans a better chance in the House and a fairly good chance in the Senate.

    My bigger concern is that the Republican base still needs to keep their enthusiasm in the general election so that we can win back the State House.

  • smagar
  • proudgop

    The filing deadline is 19th I thought?

  • Mayhem

    Mike really, truly believes that the House will go GOP in November, and I suspect he wants to vie for the Speaker’s chair or Majority Leader if it happens. Even given this Bayh development, he probably wants a high ranking spot in the House as opposed to a low ranking spot in the Senate.

    Either way, as a Hoosier, this announcement has totally shaken the political foundations of Indiana. The Bayhs are an institution here and there is a whole new ball game now. If any of the 3 Blue Dogs get in the race, that sets up open seat House gains for the Republicans. The Blue Dogs (Ellsworth, Donnelly, and Hill) are already in hot water right now. An open seat in either of those districts would almost certainly be a lock for GOP pickup.

    Politics is shifting around in a huge way today.

  • Mayhem

    1 day vs. 4? That’s little comfort. Some of these candidates have been running for months and working like crazy to get 4500 signatures statewide. Some of them still don’t have enough. It is very hard to get on the Senate ballot in Indiana.

    My guess is the Dems will caucus and pick a candidate on appeal to the State board of elections. They really have no other option at this point.

  • shadowtax

    Is it possible to consider given his recruiters a smidgeon of credit for this development?

    I know a lot of factors go into a retirement decision. A tough reelection battle would be one of them. And in Democrat circles at least, Senator Coats looks like a very serious challenge. The others less so.

    When Bayh makes it official, of course you can endorse somebody other than Coats. But still, I call into question whether you can call his recruitment a “GOP failure.”

  • Mayhem

    Hill has stated a strong desire to run for governor in 2012. My guess is that he sees how bad 2010 is shaping up to be and he won’t want to lose statewide before the 2012 race.

    The good money is on Ellsworth, though that probably means that his district will go Republican in November.

  • youthgrunt

    after losing in a House district, either. But I think that is going to happen.

  • redstatesuccess

    THANK YOU ERICK, FOR BELIEVING IN HIM!

    GoMarlin.com !!!!! – http://GoMarlin.com

    State Senator Marlin Stutzman’s hard work is paying off.

    - 18,000 miles on his RV, campaigning the state with his family

    - Countless press releases and meetings with Hoosiers across the state, bringing Bayh’s liberal, DC elitist-vulnerability to our attention since Summer 2009

    - Connecting and respecting Tea Party attendees and working with them as he has done as a state legislator, working for LIBERTY and active conservative solutions

    PLEASE DONATE, GET INFO, VOLUNTEER NOW – Http:GoMarlin.com

    2010 keeps getting more exciting!

  • IJB

    Ergo, I hope the Dems go with him.

    (I have a lifesize picture of a pro-gay marriage guy running statewide in IN!!)

  • youthgrunt

    I think the other candidates could possibly have given Bayh a run simply based on the general climate. But if you were going to run a $13M campaign against a $500K campaign, you have to figure you have a decent shot at it even in a bad year.

    But Coats was certainly not going to be that kind of a campaign. It would be a well-funded fight where the he would have a great story to tell about Bayh.

    But you will note that nothing has changed in Indiana since the Massachusetts election except for Coats joining the fray. Bayh has really left the Democrats holding the bag on this one.

  • IJB

    In 1998, Evan Bayh enters the race for Senate forcing Dan Coats to retire.

    In 2010, Dan Coats enters the race for Senate forcing Evan Bayh to retire.

    LOL! :)

  • http://www.dcworksforus.com Kenny Solomon

    C’mon now, you know somebody had to say it.
    I elected me.

    ;)

    ———-

    Scary thought that if it’s indeed Coats v. Ellsworth, the ‘D’ is more to The Constitution than ‘our guy’.

  • RedBeard

    I’ve met Daniels. Spoke with him for a while. He seems to be a genuine sort of guy. Either that or he fakes it really well.

    He has two qualities I admire. First, he understands the term “balanced budget,” something Indiana Dems just can’t grasp. And secondly, anyone who gets Indiana Dems as agitated as he does just has to be a good guy.

  • crosley

    I think that’s obvious, otherwise he wouldn’t have left his party to find someone with only a few days notice. He wasn’t even thinking of retiring until Coats entered.

    None of the other Republican challengers had a chance against Bayh, and that’s a big reason why Bayh voted the way he did, he thought he was invincible. It’s amazing what a solid recruit can do. Just announcing a strong challenge can spook established incumbents into retirement.

    Even though I wanted to see Bayh rejected by Indiana voters, I think Bayh was far and away the best chance Democrats had for keeping this Senate seat. I believe Coats would have beat him, but it would have been a tight race. This saves a lot of resources for Republicans in other races.

  • youthgrunt

    between Coats and Ellsworth–or more “to The Constitution”–it is ridiculous.

    Ellsworth has an ACU rating of 16 (though he has a lifetime rating of 26!). Coats has a lifetime rating of 90.

    Erick mentioned this in his update and it is simply wrong that Ellsworth is either more conservative or more “Constitutional” than Coats.

  • gumbyandpokey

    on the issues of abortion and gun control. I hope Pence is reconsidering entering the race or this might not be the slam dunk many are saying.

  • RedBeard

    …is the idea that Evan Bayh is a moderate.

    He is his father’s son, meaning a true-blue liberal who knows how to wear the populist hat when he needs it for campaign rallies.

    This retirement is one of the best presents that thinking Hoosiers could ever get.

  • angry_white_boy

    From Hoosier Pundit
    http://hoosierpundit.blogspot.com/2010/02/get-tamyra-dippolito-on-ballot.html
    Who, you say?

    Tamyra D’Ippolito, who was attempting to mount a primary challenge to Evan Bayh. According to the Indiana Daily Student, she only needs 1,000 or so signatures. On a Bloomington political discussion forum, she says that she needs signatures in particular from the 8th District.

    The form to get her signatures is available here.

    You do not need to be in contact with the campaign to get signatures. Just print the above form, get signatures of registered voters on it, and get it turned in to your county clerk’s office by noon tomorrow (February 16).

    There is not a lot of time. Bayh declined reelection at the last possible minute so that no Democrat would be on the ballot for Senate in Indiana, and thus Democratic Party insiders (largely Bayh cronies) would pick who is on the ballot in November.

    If Tamyra D’Ippolito is on the ballot, then that’s all she wrote. They can’t pick anyone else. She will be their nominee, period.

  • IJB

    There is *NO* such thing as a “conservative” (or even “moderate”) Dem.

    Frankly, if people around here want to shred their credibility in an instant, a good way would be to claim that Ellsworth is “more conservative” than Dan Coats. That’s just silly talk.

    And, beyond that, whoever the GOP nominee is, they’ll be (heavily) favored in this race. I don’t care who the nominee is.

  • gumbyandpokey

    And there are plenty of people who vote on just those issues. Coats is not a great candidate and it does no good to stick your head in the sand.

  • vamoose

    So if Ms. D’Ippolito only needs 1,000 more signatures, then why didn’t Bayh wait until after the deadline? Wouldn’t that have created the vacancy that would have allowed the party to put their handpicked stooge on the ballot? What does Bayh and/or the Dems have to gain from him making the announcement today?

  • jfindl2

    You need signatures by tomorrow, 2 deadlines is weird, but thats how it is.

  • nvrepub

    nt

  • nvrepub

    nt

  • http://www.angrywhiteboy.org angry_white_boy

    My guess, they simply screwed up.

  • toughintn

    But you do have to be more careful with the facts.

    Dan Coats is pro-life.

    It is disingenuous for you to insinuate that he is not by noting that with Congressman Ellsworth “The Democrats will actually be able to run to the right of us on those issues [2nd amendment and pro-life] in Indiana if we are stuck with Dan Coats.”

    I actually think Stutzman is a decent guy, but I ALSO have great respect for the service of Coats (like most conservative kids who grew up in Indiana), and your vitriol against Coats is puzzling.

    So here’s another part of the puzzle for you to read. Yet another example of the conservative nature of Dan Coats.

    Would Democrat Ellsworth have been so happy about Sarah Palin joining the race?

    *****************************************************

    Dobson Endorses McCain In Wake of Palin Pick
    Choice Of Alaska Governor Generates Enthusiasm Among Conservatives At Minneapolis Gatheringby Neil Munro

    Friday, Aug. 29, 2008

    In a remarkable reversal, James Dobson, the influential founder of Focus on the Family, enthusiastically endorsed John McCain for president Friday afternoon in a response to McCain’s choice of Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin as his running mate. “A lot of people were praying, and I believe Sarah Palin is God’s answer,” Dobson said at lunchtime meeting of conservative leaders in Minneapolis.

    In February Dobson said, “I cannot, and will not, vote for Sen. John McCain, as a matter of conscience,” dampening the flow of donations and volunteers to the McCain campaign from a key component of the Republican coalition.

    “Conditions change, and they changed radically today,” said Dobson. “I’ve not been so excited about a political candidate since Ronald Reagan.”

    “I’ve got a smile on my face that I can’t take off,” agreed former GOP senator Dan Coats. Coats said that on the way to the Minneapolis event, he saw crowds in the local airport cheering the McCain announcement. Before McCain announced his pick, “the passion was not there” among Republican voters, said Coats. They “don’t want to vote for someone they don’t agree with. They want to really be for somebody. That’s what makes the campaign work.” Coats predicted that with Palin on the ticket, “we’ll see a flood of volunteers.” [. . .]

    http://www.nationaljournal.com/conventions/co_20080829_2432.php

  • toughintn

    n/t

  • redtillimdead

    Pence and Daniels are both considering running. BTW, you may not know this, since I know you never researched Dan Coats since he is a member of the big, bad, scary “establishment” but if it weren’t for him, we would not know Sarah Palin. He was the only one in the McCain campaign that pushed for him to pick her. He convinced him to pick Sarah. I’d also like to see links that say he is pro-choice and against the 2nd amendment please. Just statements don’t do it for me.
    Here’s my link about him pushing for Sarah Palin- http://corner.nationalreview.com/post/?q=M2RjMmRjNWRiNWZmNTZlZDQ2OGU2NWU0NjYwOWEyODk=
    Says he is a strong Christian, which implies pro-life?

  • mootzu

    My parents live in Ellsworth’s district and I used to live in it as well. He was elected as a conservative Democrat, but he has reliably followed the party line since at least 2008. My parents, especially my dad who is well connected, say there are a LOT of unhappy constituents. That district is in no way a liberal one. It’s a very quiet, family oriented, typical midwest area and I’m sure they aren’t happy with his recent voting record.

    Granted, Ellsworth is NOT the worst candidate they could pick, but there’s plenty to attack him on and he is not as conservative as he portrays himself.

  • http://www.dcworksforus.com Kenny Solomon

    Sorry to freak out anyone……. That should have read: “…….more to The Constitution than ?our guy? on being pro-life and pro 2A.”

    Must have accidentally hit ‘enter’ while I was typing.

    Gotta be more careful trying to run up comments while I’m driving and talking on my cell phone.

    ;)

    ————

    On that note……. A “Preview Comment” function would be kind of a sporty new option on RS right about now.

    Cheers !

  • http://erickbrockway.wordpress.com/ Erick Brockway

    …and raise;

  • Brian_Roastbeef

    but so what if it is? The deed is done now, and we still have an opportunity to choose the best candidate. In fact, its more important now than ever.

    I was happy to hear that Erick has decided to back Stutzman in this race. I think that he is the best candidate that we have, and there is no reason to look past him now. In my opinion, Stutzman could have beat Bayh. Yes, he was down double digits in the poll, but Bayh still only got 45%, same as vs. the hypothetical Pence matchup. Nevertheless, Coats supporters now no longer even have that mistaken electability argument on their side. Whomever we choose is starting off at an advantage, so lets choose the right man. We don’t want somebody who could leave us vulnerable from the right, even if he has name power. If name power meant anything here, it doesn’t now.

    It is time to move on from that and take somebody based on principle: the best conservative, and an individual who has potential to be part of the future of the Republican party in Indiana, not the past. If anybody here hasn’t checked out Stutzman yet, they should. I really do believe that he is the right one to back, here.

  • proudgop

    Via Hotline

    “Candidates running for statewide office in IN have to collect 500 signatures from each of the state’s 9 districts. Those signatures are due by tomorrow.

    Once signatures are in, candidates have until Friday to officially file for office.

    Dems will get the chance to pick their own nominee. Some DC Dems say the process is the best-case scenario short of having Bayh on the ballot for a 3rd term; allowing the party to pick a nominee will avoid a primary.”

    This stinks and is such insider politics so Bayh waits till last minute and does so with sneaky exit

    I hope another Democrat gets sigs in tomorrow ( IN Republicans should have someone out right now collecting them for Joe Schmoe for Dems)

  • youthgrunt

    is his vote for the Assault Weapons Ben in, what, 1993? There were two other related votes (Brady Bill and a crime bill) that some point to.

    It is a valid knock and I haven’t heard his rationale yet. And when it comes to issues such as this, I like understanding a person’s rationale. Especially when it seems to go against his other voting record.

  • http://www.havearoach.com Lee Hempfling

    Bayh is not resigning for partican gridlock. He decided on Friday, told a few staffers and DID NOT tell Obama or Reid until this morning. Even Democrats are ghast at his excuse, out of no where. 13 + million dollars in his war chest and wham… not staying and blaming his colleagues for their demeanor.. amazingly so ‘not’ believable.

    He’s leaving for the same reason last year saw Republicans announce retirements, this year its the Democrat’s turn. I would tend be wait for the next shoe to drop. He’s not the last one to go.

    HAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA … its so funny to watch them squirm.

  • joebgardener

    Or at a minimum on the ticket as VP!!

  • proudgop

    If IN GOP was smart they’d have people out right now collecting sigs for Joe Schmoe as dem so Dems can’t play their sneaky games

  • RSSS

    I like Mitch Daniels as the best candidate to run against Obama in 2012.

  • jfindl2

    Now that the Indiana Dem party will select a candidate we are going to need somebody who can raise money. Brad Ellsworth raised over 1.5 million in his two bids for congress and is currently sitting on 500k. So yeah Stutzman needs to start raising money first.

  • vamoose

    Kind of like Agatha Christie’s And Then There Were None

  • jfindl2

    gun control, but I think that Ellsworth being more pro-life is pretty specious. The whole claim is based on Dan Coats vote for Ginsburg, who passed the senate 96-3. Coats was a supporter of life throughout his tenure in the Senate.

  • 6eorge Jetson

    at Total Bastard Airlines will treat Evan so rudely


    Buh-Bayh!

  • 6eorge Jetson

    nt

  • 6eorge Jetson

  • leeners81

    This just made my day! It goes to show how people rally around truly conservative candidates and it is scaring the Democrats. I love it!!

  • ashland_avenue

    n/t

  • http://www.dcworksforus.com Kenny Solomon

    One of these days, I’ll sit down and really figure out one of the three photo/graphics suites I have.

    I did a few pretty decent artwork setups on CD releases for some past clients, but that’s child’s play compared to wanting to create pure unadulterated snark and maybe even get a nomination for an IowaHawk award.

    ;)

  • hoosierteacher

    None of the other candidates (including RedState’s anti-war candidate Stutzman) worried the dems in Indiana. In-state activists don’t care for medling from the national party, nor from blogs that try to speak for grass roots Indiana voters. The word in Indiana is that when Coates got into the race, Bayh realized the race was over. Only Pence would have had the same affect, but he chose not to run.

    What Erick leaves out (time and time again) is that Coates leads the other republicansin polling as well as Bayh, because we conservatives in Indiana want him. Worse, from reading RedState you would think Coates spent his life as a lobbiest when he left the senate. Not true; he spent many of those years as a member of the Bush administration serving as ambassador to Germany (this keeps getting left out). Coates is also closely affiliated with the largest and most conservative think tank in Indiana, the Indiana Family Insitute. This group leads Indiana in being pro-life and pro-family values.

    There is no questioning Coates conservative values and track record. Stutzman also has an excellent track record, and we should give credit where it is due. However, the choice comes down to whether you want a conservative across the board, or a conservative on everything except our war on terror overseas. Some will give Stutzman a pass because Coates once retired from the senate, as if being a retiree is somehow a cardinal sin.

    The base in Indiana was not energized under either of the two GOP candidates before Coates came along. They were further dejected when Pence passed up the call. Local activists (not the national party) approached Coates, and he accepted. So one may go the NRSC or national level blog route, or go with local conservatives who don’t want to have their candidates hand picked from the outside. With respect to an otherwise excellent blog, RedState loses its credentials as a pro-grass roots level, outside the beltway blog by backing the candidate that Indiana is rejecting in favor of a name that commands conservative respect amongst those in the trenches in the hoosier state. I think Stutzman would be a fine consevative on nearly every issue, and he deserves our support if he can somehow knock of Coates. But going after Coates because he is some old, white, reitired guy sounds like lefty identity politics to me.

    I respect Erick’s position, but if anyone outside of Indiana wants to support a conservative candidate in Indiana, one should support the conservative candidate that folks in Indiana are actualy supporting at the grass roots level. That man is Dan Coates, and most of us that hapoen to llive and vote here are backing him.

  • hoosierteacher

    That is a ridiculous statement to make about Ellsworth. Coates is a big part of the Indiana Family Institute (in fact, the current president of IFI was a Coates staffer). IFI is the leading pro-life advocacy group in Indiana, conducting research, lobbying, and educating on pro-life issues. Coates has always been closely associated with IFI.

    Coates is, and always has been, the name associated with “life” in Indiana. To say otherwise is to show an amazing lack of in-state knowledge of Indiana politics. Ask any activist inside of Indiana who carries the torch for life, and Pence and Coates would be at the top. (Stutzman has a good record too, but not the name recognition or years of service). Ellsworth isn’t even on the radar.

  • hoosierteacher

    1) Bayh got out because he knows Indiana politics, and knows that Coates will win.

    2) He wants out as soon as possible, because he is seen as a Clintonesque (tri-angulation) potential for president or vice president in 2012. That’s why the odd timing.

    A delay of several days makes sense to help the party, but to help himself, getting out now is better.

  • hoosierteacher

    You can go with anti-war Stutzman.

  • Spiral

    Perhaps it could structured as a three on three debate. Three Coats supporters versus three Stutzman supporters.

    I’m relatively new to Indiana. I want to make the right choice in the primary. So, I think this type of discussion would be very informative.

    I already know about how Coats retired in 1998. I know the whole carpet-bagger charge. I don’t like the idea of someone moving back to their old state for run for Senate. But it’s not a deal breaker either.

    As for Stutzman, I need to know more about his views.

    I will check out Stutzman’s web site. But I think a debate might shed light on a lot of topics that could get left out otherwise.

  • pilgrim

    This Directors at RedState have not come out for any candidate for US Senate in Indiana. I’d also like your sources for calling Marlin Stutzman and anti-war candidate.

  • toughintn

    The answer will be Dan Coats.

  • Spiral

    Can you provide a link to some evidence supporting that? I’d like to know more about Marlin Stutzman before I make up my mind.

  • RedBeard

    Time to give us a link.

  • wrenhal

    but I have a warning for all:
    I think they are trying to play a game…. they are giving back room deals to all these dropouts so they can then put up somebody that is supposedly more “in the center” or to the right to try and counteract all the negative Obama press. Also, this way they can’t be held accountable to the public for any of their votes from this day forward. We should make sure to push this to the front so that ALL will be warned of the bait and switch they are about to try and pull on the American electorate.

  • RedBeard