Here’s a dirty little secret in American politics. A lot of the reporters who cover politics don’t know the first thing about politics. They cannot read the tea leaves. They do not know how. They do not even try.

That is why men like Larry Sabato, Chuck Todd, etc. have become so prominent. It is not hard to figure things out, but a lot of reporters are lazy. They need the story spoon fed to them.

There is a massive story out there right now and the political reporters have totally missed it. Let me spoon feed them and educate everyone in the process.

Barack Obama has become the first major Democrat to admit, though tacitly, the Democrats are screwed in 2010.

All you have to do is look to Missouri.First, let me explain what a “joint fundraising committee” is. This is a committee whereby a political organization can link to a political campaign and the two entities can raise money together, sharing both the expenditures and receipts. The fundraising committee typically benefits the organization more than the candidate, but in every case the organization has a vital role to play in the election of the candidate so it makes sense for the candidate to sign on.

For example, the National Republican Senatorial Committee has a joint fundraising committee with Carly Fiorina. Senator Jim DeMint has a joint fundraising committee with Marco Rubio. It is a mutually beneficial relationship.

One would think the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee (“DSCC”) would have a joint fundraising committee with Robin Carnahan, running against Roy Blunt in Missouri. And one would think they would use Barack Obama as the front man for the joint fundraiser.

If one thinks that, one would be wrong.

Today in Missouri, Barack Obama spoke at the fundraiser organized by the joint fundraising committee of the DSCC and sitting United States Senator Claire McCaskill — a woman not up for re-election.

At this event, Robin Carnahan, the 2010 Democratic Senate candidate in Missouri, was no where to be seen.

It goes downhill from there:

The president’s visit is also raising eyebrows because his evening fundraiser is slated to benefit Sen. Claire McCaskill, who doesn’t stand for re-election until 2012.

“We are not aware of another example of the president ignoring a U.S. Senate candidate on the ballot in less than eight months and instead raising money for someone who is not up for re-election until 2012,” noted [a Republican].

Democrats point out that Obama’s fundraising will also benefit the party’s Senate campaign committee, which could be used to aid Carnahan.

“Some of the funds raised should indirectly help Robin in her race,” Zakula said.

But when asked why Obama was raising money for McCaskill rather than Carnahan, Zakula responded, “that’s a question for the White House.” He also could not say whether Obama would campaign with Carnahan this fall.

Note the “could” and the “should.” It’s not sounding too definite for Robin.

Here’s where it gets odd. According to McCaskill’s campaign, a “large” chuck will go to benefit Carnahan’s campaign.

So where is the disconnect? Carnahan does not show up on stage with Barack Obama at his big event and Barack Obama raises money at a McCaskill fundraiser and not a Carnahan fundraiser. To top it all off, the joint fundraising committee is between the DSCC and a senator not even up for re-election?!

If we apply the easiest explanation for all of this, we arrive at the answer.

Obama has campaigned for three statewide candidates in the past four months only to see each one of them go down in flames. At the end of the day, politics is about the survival of the fittest and Barack Obama sees where things are headed.

Obama’s refusal to be seen with Carnahan or to raise money for Carnahan is a sign that Robin Carnahan is toast. Obama does not want to have another victim on the tally sheet. He does not want to get blamed.

Now here is why this is so important.

In Texas, Rick Perry is the longest serving Governor in Texas history. He was just able to beat the popular senator, Kay Bailey Hutchison, by running an entire campaign against Washington.

In Missouri, Robin Carnahan, the state’s Secretary of State, is running against Congressman Roy Blunt, a man who has been in Washington for twelve years and is a Republican — a party everyone including myself points out polls worse than Democrat even in Missouri.

Carnahan should be able to do like Rick Perry and run a race against Washington and against the Republicans. Except she can’t. Her party owns Washington. And because her party owns Washington and Barack Obama owns the party, Robin Carnahan is screwed.

Barack Obama knows it. He’s trying to stay away lest political reporters finally start paying attention like the rest of us and realize Barack Obama is exactly what I said he was — Barack Obama is now a social pariah and most Democrats and he knows it.

So do Democrats really want to pass a health care plan so closely connected with a man who himself tacitly admits those he campaigns for go on to lose?