Multiple sources are reporting that the individual mandate as currently written has no teeth. There is no real enforcement mechanism and healthy people will find it easy to stay out of the system until they need it, creating an insurance pool of already sick customers for the insurance companies. What will happen is known as the cost death spiril – ever increasing premiums that are driven so high so fast, people are forced into the public option.

Stay with me here. We have all heard multiple recordings from liberals, including Obama himself, that the current legislation is a stepping stone to single payer.

This is where it gets interesting. Let’s look at option A as the case where everyone is foreced onto the single payer plan due to no real enforcement mechanism and option B as the court approach to strike down individual mandates. The Democrats win in both cases. If option B occurs and the courts strike individual mandates, then there will be no option but the public option, which has to be paid for somehow. Watch for taxes to raise across the entire spectrum, hitting those making much less than the $250,000. Also, in this case, the liberals have cover. The courts struck down the mandate, but we are stuck with the rest of the bill and an untenable situation – how to pay for it. If the courts don’t strike it down, you have the same situation minus the political cover – but when has that stopped liberals? This is also effectively option A with taling points for the Republicans – see, they tried to pass an unconstitutional bill.

In the end, with either option, regardless of how the court rules, you are forced into a single payer system. Calling this a conspiracy theory does not pass muster, because if I wanted single payer, this is EXACTLY how I would do it.

As the bill exists even after reconciliation. Here is just one link that talks about this: http://reason.com/blog/2010/03/29/insurance-death-spiral-here-we:

[And a report by the Joint Committee on Taxation last week seems to indicate that, as written, the individual mandate may not have any teeth. Here's the relevant passage:

The penalty [for not purchasing insurance] applies to any period the individual does not maintain minimum essential coverage and is determined monthly. The penalty is assessed through the Code and accounted for as an additional amount of Federal tax owed. However, it is not subject to the enforcement provisions of subtitle F of the Code. The use of liens and seizures otherwise authorized for collection of taxes does not apply to the collection of this penalty. Non-compliance with the personal responsibility requirement to have health coverage is not subject to criminal or civil penalties under the Code and interest does not accrue for failure to pay such assessments in a timely manner.

And the footnote on Code F:

IRS authority to assess and collect taxes is generally provided in subtitle F, ?Procedure and Administration? in the Code. That subtitle establishes the rules governing both how taxpayers are required to report information to the IRS and pay their taxes as well as their rights. It also establishes the duties and authority of the IRS to enforce the Code, including civil and criminal penalties.

So there are penalties for not purchasing insurance. But there’s no serious enforcement mechanism allowing the IRS to make sure those penalties get paid?

Given the importance of the mandate to the health reform project, this doesn’t make much sense. The law was designed to expand the number of individuals with health insurance. But without the ability to enforce the individual mandate, any expansion will likely be significantly smaller than projected.]