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EDITOR OF REDSTATE

Bob Bennett’s Final Days of Power

By: Erick Erickson (Diary)  |  April 27th, 2010 at 09:59 AM  | 

RESIZE: AAA

Real Clear Politics has seen the polling. It’s not just any polling, but a Mason-Dixon poll. Those are typically very reliable.

And the result?

Bob Bennett is toast.

If no candidate receives 60% of the delegate vote at the May 8 convention, the top two finishers advance to the June 22 primary. However, Bennett currently finds himself in third place. Mike Lee leads with 37%, followed by Tim Bridgewater with 20%, Bennett with 16% and Cherilyn Eagar with 11%.

“Bennett has almost no shot of getting more votes at the convention than Bridgewater and Lee,” said Mason-Dixon managing director Brad Coker.

This will be a real victory for conservatives. But, we need to rally to Mike Lee quickly. We need Mike in office. As bad as Bennett is, Bridgewater has profited from Obama’s economic policies like the stimulus.

Mike Lee is the conservative who can win and will be awesome.

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COMMENTS

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  • NotSoBlueStater

    I frankly don’t know much or care much about Bennett. At a coarse level, though, this feels so very — Kos. Especially the part where conservatives must quickly rally to Ned La … ooops … Mike Lee!

    Erick, are you gonna do a Menros ad, too?

    Yes, I’m being snarky, but I do have a point here. The pinnacle of success for Kos was defeating a liberal who wasn’t liberal enough in a primary. It was a hollow victory. This probably isn’t the same situation, but it has the same sort of feel to it.

  • http://www.erickerickson.org Erick Erickson

    That was the original comparison people made when I went for Rubio. But wait . . . Crist is getting crushed.

    So now Bennett v. Lee? Really? There is a substantive difference. My picks are winning.

  • Dr. Botkin

    because of the conservatives dumping him, isn’t there a chance that if he is as bad as advertised he will become Obama’s 60th vote in his mad rush to come as close as he can to destroying America before the November elections?

  • http://www.hakubi.us/ Neil Stevens
  • http://jeffemanuel.net Jeff Emanuel

    That’s enough to show it’s not just some fringe right-wing nutjob crusade for Mike Lee and against Bennett.

    This election is about Change. Bennett represents the old-school, mushy centrist, cronyist way of doing business. There’s no room for that in the GOP from geographic regions that can and are willing to do better.

  • http://www.erickerickson.org Erick Erickson

    He gets to stay because he’s bad, but would be worse if we ditched him?

    I don’t buy into that.

  • http://jeffemanuel.net Jeff Emanuel

    …primarying incumbents be avoided, out of fear? If he’d stoop to that level, that’s all the more reason to be well shut of him.

  • jstanard

    There is no question.

    I attended the county conventions in Salt Lake and Utah Counties this past weekend.

    Mike Lee had a constant crowd of 40-70 people gathered around him at all times.

    Tim Bridgewater had from 2 to 10 people most times.

    Eager had to go around Mike crowd and pick people off the edges.

    This tells us a LOT about what will happen.

  • Dr. Botkin

    that he be kept because he is bad. I am just worried about the damage he could cause once he finds he doesn’t have to play the moderate anymore.

  • http://jeffemanuel.net Jeff Emanuel

    to respond to comments. Otherwise, it looks like you’re just hanging around here talking to yourself.

    Thanks.

  • arc_ut

    With time running out? We have 10 days.

    There are 4 candidates that seem to have a chance of winning the GOP nominee for US Senate. Mike Lee, Cherilyn Eagar, Tim Bridgewater and Bob Bennett.

    As the pollsters learned 2 years ago when Jason Chaffetz won, trying to guess what will happen at convention is pretty tough.

    We do have two county delegate polls taken at Weber and Utah GOP County Conventions. Both had Cherilyn Eagar taking 2nd place over Bob Bennett and Tim Bridgewater. These two counties represent over 27% of the state delegates.

    With a 3 round ballot system, any of those that make it through the 1st round could win, even if they don’t get 1st place for round 1.

    I believe that Cherilyn Eagar is the only one running who has supported and been active in fighting for conservative values for the last 30 years at the local, state, national and international level.

  • arc_ut

    April 24, 2010, Utah County – County Delegates (has 687 State
    delegates or 20% of total)

    Mike Lee 485 39.9%
    Cherilyn Eagar 258 22.5%
    Tim Bridgewater 182 15.9%
    Bob Bennett 176 15.3%
    Leonard Fabiano 44 3.8%
    Jeremy Friedbaum 16 1.4%
    Merrill Cook 11 0.9%
    David Chiu 2 0.1%

    April 10, 2010, Weber County – County Delegates (has 263 State
    delegates or 7.5% of total)

    Mike Lee 150 32.2%
    Cherilyn Eagar 129 27.7%
    Bob Bennett 106 22.7%
    Tim Bridgewater 48 10.3%
    Leonard Fabiano 29 6.2%
    Merrill Cook 4 0.1%

  • arc_ut

    get 2nd place in the Utah Co. Convention straw poll?

  • fstaheli

    At the Utah County Republican Convention this past weekend, Utah State Senator John Valentine seemed rather surprised at the response he got when he told the delegate crowd that he was supporting Bob Bennett. He became the object of raucous boos.

    Later in the morning, one (incumbent) county commission candidate made what I think was the great mistake of asking John Valentine to stand in with those who nominated him. That county commission candidate, to the utter surprise of all in attendance, was soundly trounced by his rival. I think it shows the residual effects of supporting someone (Bennett), whom a critical mass of people has finally gotten around to seeing is a has-been.

  • arc_ut

    Mike Lee conservative?

    He might be.
    He says he is. (So does Bob Bennett).
    We can hope Mike Lee is.
    He has no record, no political resume.

    You may or may not like Cherilyn Eagar, but she does have a 30 year conservative track records of doing things.

    I also believe Cherilyn Eagar is going to win May 8th. What would you do then?

  • NotSoBlueStater

    You may be right on the money in both cases. It just has an eerie famiuliarity to it. The best par of RedState (for me, and I admit I may not be representative) is it’s advocacy for conservative ideas. The whole kingmaker stuff is a turn off.

    Just one person’s .02.

  • NotSoBlueStater

    Maybe not this year, but as a general principle? The risk is always that the new guy gets marginalized and then loses, leaving you in worse shape than when you started. I didn’t invent that line of reasoning.

    You’re better off having the committee chairs and rolling your eyes at the squishy than you are losing the seat.

  • NotSoBlueStater

    Maybe not this year, but as a general principle? The risk is always that the new guy gets marginalized and then loses, leaving you in worse shape than when you started. I didn’t invent that line of reasoning.

    You’re better off having the committee chairs and rolling your eyes at the squishy than you are losing the seat.

  • NotSoBlueStater

    You guys didn’t see the Scott Brown thing coming until Rasmussen had a poll at minus 9. We did the first 21 points without national outsider wisdom. In fact, it happened in a world where the national brains had decided the race didn’t warrant investment of any kind.

    All politics is local. Playing kingmakers from thousands of miles away might have unitended consequences (again, ask the Kossacks). I think with the advent of nationalizing elections still pretty much in its infancy, nobody fully understands how it will all play out over time.

    Excepty maybe you. In which case, more power to you.

  • NotSoBlueStater

    You guys didn’t see the Scott Brown thing coming until Rasmussen had a poll at minus 9. We did the first 21 points without national outsider wisdom. In fact, it happened in a world where the national brains had decided the race didn’t warrant investment of any kind.

    All politics is local. Playing kingmakers from thousands of miles away might have unitended consequences (again, ask the Kossacks). I think with the advent of nationalizing elections still pretty much in its infancy, nobody fully understands how it will all play out over time.

    Excepty maybe you. In which case, more power to you.

  • leer

    Mike Lee has political insider and endorsement backing but that doesn’t make him the Conservative to back nor the right candidate for the job. He is a mini-Bob Bennett, a career attorney with little practical business experience, which in my opinion makes him a wild card in terms of fostering change for “We the people” in Washington. On the other hand, Cherilyn Eagar is the ONE candidate, whether you agree with every position or not, experienced enough to make the change in Washington required over the next six years.

    Eagar is faring very well in polls, in some taking the second and first among opponents. Let’s remember, many of the polls conducted including those paid for and sourced by media outlets are conjecture and can be demographically skewed.

    Cherilyn Eagar is quickly winning the hearts and minds of delegates — let’s get behind the candidate of actuality and vote for Eagar on May 8th!!!

  • http://www.hakubi.us/ Neil Stevens

    You’re dreaming.

  • NotSoBlueStater

    Tons and tons of money from around the world, literally overnight.

    I remember saying to my wife the day I saw Brown -9 “watch what happens now”. She’s a Democrat and clung to the idea that it’s impossible to blow a 30 point lead.

    Boom. The entire right side of the echo chamber kicked into high gear. Huge nation resources mobilized. Maybe that’s just a new implementation of an old thing, but it felt like something different to me — something enabled in the past half decade.

  • crassus

    I think not, and I will list three reasons. One, we are not playing “kingmaker”. This is laughable, Bennett is bringing in Mitt Romney. Two, this isn’t “purification”. There are simply much bette candidates, and we aren’t saying Bennett can not be a Republican- there is just no reason that he must be a senator. After all, he broke his term limits pledge. Third, all the people who are against this “purge” are nincompoops anyway. Can’t you just see ole Newt Gingrich campaigning against ‘career politicians’. Fourth, why can we not endorse a candidate. You can bet your sweet buns that there are TONS of out of state supporters for Bennett. Fifth, Bennett is outspending Lee 20 to 1. Sixth, we are in desperate shape. Bennett has repeatedly broken his vow to uphold the constitution. In fact, he has made a mockery of it. We owe him nothing. Seventh, it’s not so much that we hate Bennett, it’s that we simply do not thing he is very good compared to Mike Lee. 8th, even if you think it is Kos-esque, so what? Who would we rather be like? The liberal establishment? I am 100% convinced that all the people who are against the so-called purges are just phonies who are desperate to keep their jobs. In fact, much of the time they are purgers themselves- like David Frum. I don’t agree with RedState on everything, like Indiana or California- but for Utah, they are spot on. Mark Levin endorsed Lee, and Jim DeMint all but did it. Utah votes about 70% republican, and in any case, Bennett is probably left-of-center to the average Utah voter.

    Cheers

  • crassus

    I think not, and I will list three reasons. One, we are not playing “kingmaker”. This is laughable, Bennett is bringing in Mitt Romney. Two, this isn’t “purification”. There are simply much bette candidates, and we aren’t saying Bennett can not be a Republican- there is just no reason that he must be a senator. After all, he broke his term limits pledge. Third, all the people who are against this “purge” are nincompoops anyway. Can’t you just see ole Newt Gingrich campaigning against ‘career politicians’. Fourth, why can we not endorse a candidate. You can bet your sweet buns that there are TONS of out of state supporters for Bennett. Fifth, Bennett is outspending Lee 20 to 1. Sixth, we are in desperate shape. Bennett has repeatedly broken his vow to uphold the constitution. In fact, he has made a mockery of it. We owe him nothing. Seventh, it’s not so much that we hate Bennett, it’s that we simply do not thing he is very good compared to Mike Lee. 8th, even if you think it is Kos-esque, so what? Who would we rather be like? The liberal establishment? I am 100% convinced that all the people who are against the so-called purges are just phonies who are desperate to keep their jobs. In fact, much of the time they are purgers themselves- like David Frum. I don’t agree with RedState on everything, like Indiana or California- but for Utah, they are spot on. Mark Levin endorsed Lee, and Jim DeMint all but did it. Utah votes about 70% republican, and in any case, Bennett is probably left-of-center to the average Utah voter.

    Cheers

  • crassus

    I like Mike Lee a little better. I’m not anti-establishment for the sake of it. If the establishment is genuine, and right on the issues than I’m an establishment guy. Additionally, I think Mike Lee is very sincere. He has taken tough stands on issues that have gotten him smears from Bennett. There is no need for him to do this. Advocate for Eagar if you will, but don’t attack Lee. He’s a good fella.

  • crassus

    I like Mike Lee a little better. I’m not anti-establishment for the sake of it. If the establishment is genuine, and right on the issues than I’m an establishment guy. Additionally, I think Mike Lee is very sincere. He has taken tough stands on issues that have gotten him smears from Bennett. There is no need for him to do this. Advocate for Eagar if you will, but don’t attack Lee. He’s a good fella.

  • streiff

    is a strong endorsement in your book? Well, in that case why did Bennett get third?

  • streiff

    Let?s remember, many of the polls conducted including those paid for and sourced by media outlets are conjecture and can be demographically skewed.

    in this case your statement is just hogwash. The poll we’re talking about is a poll of delegates. If you are polling elected delegates there is no way to “demographically skew” the sample.

  • NotSoBlueStater

    He won in Massachusetts because he won the battle of ideas. Living here it was completely obvious that it was that, and not all of the national noise, that won the day. Again, he went from -30 to -9 before anybody outside MA was even paying attention.

    Just one person’s opinion, but I love that Erick from Georgia can help move the needle in the arena of ideas. I’m less enamored that Erick from Georgia is trying to pick the next senator from Utah.

    Just being honest.

  • justcase

    Ask yourself who has the progressives around them, funding their campaign? Who hasn’t even been in politics (other than being an attorney)? It’s beyond me that we’re even considering someone with absolutely NO experience to represent us.

    Oh yeah, and speaking about representing us, who does Lee represent? The State of Utah or Energy Solutions?

    Does anyone know if Lee has yet figured out how to fill in his FEC forms? And you want a guy who gets nailed for breaking the law, to represent you? Can you spell Timothy Geithner?

  • http://www.erickerickson.org Erick Erickson

    I would vote for Eager if Lee did not make it to the end. Would you vote for Lee if Eager does not make it to the end? Or would you leave Bennett in office?

  • arc_ut

    The poll on Saturday, Bennett got 4th place.

    With a 3 round ballot system, any of those that make it through the 1st round could win, even if they don?t get 1st place for round 1.

    There 8 GOP Candidates. 5 will be eliminated round 1.

    4 are showing up the bottom 4 all the time. The other order changes.

    This is still a 4 person race for the GOP nominee.

  • graciegirl

    Conservative, one seat at a time do you not understand? After all the decisions made in Congress affect ALL of us!

    Erick is enjoying a dynamite track record through his hard work I might add. How It wish it was Gramnesty’s turn at bat.

  • graciegirl

    Conservative, one seat at a time do you not understand? After all the decisions made in Congress affect ALL of us!

    Erick is enjoying a dynamite track record through his hard work I might add. How It wish it was Gramnesty’s turn at bat.

  • graciegirl
  • arc_ut

    that are better than the incumbent, I would rather not leave Bennett in office.

    All of them have weaknesses. All of them strengths.

    I have been researching the top 4 candidates for about a year.

    Cherilyn Eagar has the best track record to see what she will do.

    Bridgewater has business sense. His connections to international trade and gov. loans bugs me, as does his recent endorsement.

    Lee knows the constitution, but has no track record other than being a lawyer. You can’t tell what he will do from that as he has been on opposing sides of issues. He knows case law better than the others. He is currently being looked like a pawn from FreedomWorks and Club for Growth, along with others. Can he stand up and not be a pawn is unknown.

    Lee’s appearance for lack of transparency could kill his candidacy. He missed his April 8th filing for Asset Reporting to the Senate. He will likely be fined. As of April 27th, no release has been announced that it has been turned in, which leads one to believe it was on purpose. His campaign claimed they thought it was May 15th when it was due.

    With 10 days to convention, if he won’t comply with the law soon enough for delegates to get the info, he is the wrong person to even run.

  • bsoe

    arc – it is obvious to everyone that is reading political blogs, or commenting on this race that you are connected to CE’s campaign. Now that you have decided to go negative, which I will attribute to the Eager campaign, she has no chance of getting my vote. Thanks for convincing me that CE is not worth voting for. Going negative puts Eager at the end of the list for me, just above Bennett, who also went negative. My order is now something like this:
    Lee
    Bridgewater
    5 guys that have no shot
    Eager
    Bennett

  • arc_ut

    If someone made a mistake, they are human.

    If they are working to correct it, that is something. My question is if they are required to file an asset report to the US senate 30 days before an election, and if the convention counts, and 20 days later, there is no sign that they are still not complying, you are left to wonder if they will after all.

    It has been a week since it showed up in the news.

    http://www.sltrib.com/news/ci_14930772

  • arc_ut

    As a Utah GOP state delegate, I am amazed I haven’t read Lee’s asset report yet, or at least have the news report on it.

    No one told me to post what I did.