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EDITOR OF REDSTATE

How do things look in Indiana? [UPDATED]

By: Erick Erickson (Diary)  |  April 28th, 2010 at 11:53 AM  | 

RESIZE: AAA

There is a rumor of a poll that went out in Indiana that was then not made public. Well, heck, I only call it a rumor because it happened but nobody wants to talk about it.

My guess is, based on the Coats campaign’s behavior, the poll was either done for them or the results then given to them, making it an NRSC poll. That it has not been leaked means it could not be good news for Dan Coats.

Coats raced off to DC for a last minute fundraiser with his lobbyist and Senate buddies and then gave himself a $200,000.00 loan suggests a few things in line with what I’ve been hearing about the poll (I have little birdies everywhere):

  1. Coats is in the lead, which is to be expected.
  2. There are high undecideds — probably over 30%.
  3. Undecideds are breaking toward Marlin Stutzman in large numbers.
  4. Coats’ support is incredibly soft.

This means Coats needs to get up on air heavily, hence the money.

Marlin too needs to stay up on air. Right now, Marlin is spending more on air than Coats. Let’s keep Marlin on the air.

This also means someone needs to be brave enough to point out inconvenient facts like Dan Coats was a lobbyist for bailed out banks, Yemen, internet regulations, and assorted other stuff conservative activists would not be pleased with.

And while we are on it, Dan Coats still has not filed his disclosure report. Why would he not want primary voters to know what is in his report? Just what is Dan Coats hiding?

Conservatives need to rally to Marlin Stutzman.

UPDATE: Steve Brown says it is a Survey USA poll done for a media company and the results aren’t secret, just not to be released till tomorrow. What is odd about that is the sample of the poll I’m talking about, which I’ve been told was Survey USA, was taken Thursday-Friday of last week. Why wait a week to release the polling when so much has happened since then?

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COMMENTS

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  • http://ruminationsaspirations.blogspot.com jonbingham

    …strong early poll numbers that mask the shallowness of reasoning behind supporting him.
    I hope Marlin has enough to overcome the lack-of-engagement of those who remain Coats-name-ID voters. As people get to know Stutzman, they understand and appreciate why DeMint was willing to frustrate the Washington Republican establishment and push for him against Coats.

  • http://gooberment.blogspot.com gooberment

    And those “birdies” are associated with Marlin’s campaign, right? I understand you’re supporting him, but it’s getting hard to walk around here these days.

  • proudgop

    raising money for general according to his campaign because Ellsworth has a lot money already

  • zollistar

    You don’t have to live in Indiana to make calls on behalf of Marlin Stutzman who is, btw, supported by Mark Levin (among others) as well as our own EE.

    For information on signing up as a volunteer caller, visit: www.GoMarlin.com

    Full disclosure: I’m a volunteer caller. Join me!

  • jmell7

    I actually know about a poll that was not publicized…but it was about 2 weeks ago. The funny thing is that the NRSC pushed to publicize the poll while the Coats campaign did not want his voters to get complacent, so they didn’t publicize it.

    It’s going to be interesting to see how this one shakes out. If it’s not close as I have heard, then we’re gonna know their was a lot of smoke being blown here at Redstate.

  • IJB

    That’s a meme Dems like to pull out – oh, the GOP nominee spent all his money in the Primary, so he’ll be toast on Election Day!

    Well, unless you’re in one of those (IMO, backwards) states that doesn’t have a Primary until September, it’s not an issue – the GOP nominee in IN will have *plenty* of money to compete in the General, and probably within a month of the Primary.

    We shouldn’t be worrying about who has cash on hand now – there will be plenty of time to raise ca$h to beat Ellsworth about the head with this summer…

  • http://gooberment.blogspot.com gooberment

    I don’t begrudge anyoneodor supporting Marlin. He’s a good guy with a bright future, whatever happens on 5/4. I support Coats because I know him and people who work for him, and because I think he can make an instant impact in the Senate, and because I agree with him on conservative issues 99% of the time (you won’t find anyone better on social and defense issues, I guarantee it).

    I just hope all Indiana conservatives can unite behind the nominee. Gov. Daniels even chimed in recently to plead for civility between the candidates. Now is not the time for conservatives to cannabalize each other.

  • e_rowe

    The omission of the conservative John Hostettler from this report is glaring, given that he has consistently polled as either the leading candidate or within the margin of error of Coats, with Stutzman consistently far behind (as this post, for all it’s best efforts at painting this in a good light for Stutzman makes clear is the case once again).

    My guess is that, since Coats isn’t releasing the poll, and since you’re so obviously avoiding reference to the most conservative candidate in the race, Hostettler is winning the poll outright.

    If that’s not the case, then what does your source tell you?

  • youngmonte

    There have been six anti-Coats posts in the past 2 days. Six. Some have bordered on the absurd (see the “Choose your own doctor” post). If Dan Coats were, say, John McCain, I could understand the obsession to beat him – in fact, I’d share it. But Coats is a pretty reliable conservative and the senate would be a much better place with him. I’m sure the senate would be better with Stutzman as well, so I don’t understand why with two good guys running, RedState is wasting its time tearing one guy down – especially when that guy is apparently in front and could waltz to victory in November.

    Meanwhile, in Arizona (my obsession, admittedly) John McCain is running around trying to reinvent himself as the conservative he never was. Yet RedState goes all in on ripping Coats and let’s McCain slide. I don’t get it. There doesn’t seem to be a dime’s worth of difference between Stutzman and Coats on policy, but the difference between JD Hayworth (ACU rating 98%) and McCain is like the Grand Canyon.

    I wish RedState would redirect its energy from this race between two good conservatives and put it into defeating John McCain.

  • youngmonte

    …anti-Coats posts. Another just went up. This is getting ridiculous.

  • youngmonte

    …anti-Coats posts. Another just went up. This is getting ridiculous.

  • jmell7

    less than a week and all that will be left is the crying.

    Well, maybe not. I assume that after Coats wins the primary, Erick will have the remaining months to say I told you so after every dip in the polls. So I guess it will all be over but the crying… after November 2.

  • e_rowe

    The way I found this post was by a Google News search on the name Hostettler. And yet, prior to my writing my comment, the name did not appear at all on the page.

    This means that it was there and then erased. So Erick, I’m guessing you initially did report Hostettler’s winning in the poll, and then quickly changed your mind and changed your post to eliminate any reference to Hostetter, lest it inspire conservatives to break his way instead of Marlin’s.

  • e_rowe

    “you won?t find anyone better on social and defense issues, I guarantee it”

    Do you not consider the right to keep and bear arms a defense issue?

    Do you not consider taxpayer funding of abortions via our foreign aid a social issue? What about appointing Ruth Bader Ginsburg to the Supreme Court?

    And even if Coats were conservative on those issues, why bracket them off as though we aren’t supposed to value free markets any more, and as though the ever-more invasive central management of the economy on the part of the federal government is not a major problem we need to address? If there’s any single most driving aspect of Coats’ political philosophy, it’s his advocacy of economic central planning as a tool to fix social problems that have been caused by too much economic central planning. He is the architect of so-called “compassionate conservatism.”
    http://www.cato-at-liberty.org/2010/02/22/the-return-of-dan-coats/

  • Mayhem

    I have to agree with others on Redstate. I sense some shilling going on here. The evidence of a Marlin surge just isn’t here. Things on the ground here in Indiana seem tilted greatly towards Coats. He’s got the central portion of the state around Indy sewn up and probably in the Ft Wayne area too (his old House district).

    I’ll support Marlin on Tuesday, but I’m not going in with any high expectations.

  • Good_Captain

    Generally I don’t like spending money in a primary but this year is different given the stakes at play. While Coats would be preferred over the Dem this November, I have become convinced that a principled conservative is needed in traditionally redstates where such a moniker is genereally respected. That has left me w/ deciding b/n Hostetler and Stutzman. Sen. DeMint’s and Erick’s endorsemnt of Stutzman have left me leaning towards Stutzman but my unwillingness to spend $ early was finally overcome w/ your logic of having Hostetler challenging the tired and easy-going Sen. Lugar in 2012 (assuming he runs).

  • jmell7

    Survey USA Indiana primary poll results attached. I just received it and the results will be announced officially later today.

    If the Republican Primary for US Senate were today, who would you vote for?

    Don Bates

    6%

    Richard Behney

    4%

    Dan Coats

    36%

    John Hostettler

    24%

    Marlin Stutzman

    18%

    Undecided

    13%

  • jmell7

    While still 13% undecided, and they could break late to Stutzman, it seems the problem is that Hostettler and Stutzman are splitting votes while Coats has a solid core.

  • http://www.hakubi.us/ Neil Stevens
  • e_rowe

    Even if all 13% break to Stutzman, he’d still lag Coats by more than the margin of error.

    Hostettler is close enough to overtake Coats. Stutzman isn’t.

    So if conservatives want to unite behind the one who can do it, it has to be Hostettler.