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EDITOR OF REDSTATE

Putting This ‘Dropping Out’ Business In Perspective

“No matter her money, no matter her claims that Chuck is the spoiler, and no matter her endorsements, Carly Fiorina will not be the next United States Senator from California”

I think we need a time out on the whole issue of who should drop out in California.

The objective fact is that Carly Fiorina cannot seal the deal with conservatives in California. Because of her failure to seal the deal, she and her team are demanding Chuck DeVore get out of the race.

If we are going to play that game, we can play it, but play it the opposite way.

In truth, no one should be calling on anyone else to get out of the race. It is up to the politicians to seal the deal and, if they cannot, it is their fault. Let’s not blame Chuck DeVore for Carly Fiorina being unable to seal the deal. And let’s not blame Carly Fiorina for Chuck DeVore being unable to seal the deal.

This conversation would never have started but for an orchestrated effort on the Fiorina campaign’s part to declare Chuck DeVore her spoiler when, by her own campaign’s admissions and polling they champion, she has not moved in the PPIC polling statistically in more than a month when DeVore has gone up eight points.

I did not call on John Hostettler to drop out in Indiana, even when the polling showed he was going to serve as a spoiler for Stutzman. Stutzman needed to do his part to make inroads with Hostettler’s crowd and, given the nature of the crowd, could not.

In the same way, I am not going to call on Danny Tarkanian to drop out in Nevada. Yes, he may keep Sharron Angle from surging past Lowden, but that’s the way politics works. In some cases consolidation needs to happen. But the best way to make consolidation happen is to show why your guy is better than the also run, not why the also run should drop out.

Except when candidates get other people to run as a campaign strategy to ensure their own re-election through a crowded and divided field, there is rarely a candidate who runs for statewide office who does not think he can either win or is called to do it regardless of consequences.

The “get out of the race because otherwise X will win” is cheap rhetoric done on calculation that it would be more expensive to actually convince voters of the fact that X really is so bad voters cannot afford to split their vote.

Yes, between Danny Tarkanian and Sharron Angle, I think voters need to rally around one or the other. Given the endorsements, money, and trends, however much I had hoped it would be Tarkanian, it is clearly Angle with the momentum and I therefore hope voters will rally around her, even though it means my favorite would lose. The greater good demands it. But that doesn’t mean Tarkanian should be forced to drop out. If he can’t see the writing on the wall, that’s between him and the ballots cast on election day.

In California, Chuck DeVore and Carly Fiorina are keeping each other from beating Tom Campbell. But in my review of the data, it seems clear to me that DeVore both does better against Boxer and helps Campbell more should he get out. So why bother dropping out?

I’d love to see Danny Tarkanian in the Senate, but that is not going to happen. We can be idealists, but ground our ideals in the reality of data. I’d love for Chuck DeVore to be in the United States Senate, but he probably won’t be there either. That should not distract us from the other fact the Fiorina campaign wishes we would not get to. No matter her money, no matter her claims that Chuck is the spoiler, and no matter her endorsements, Carly Fiorina will not be the next United States Senator from California either. So why bother forcing Chuck DeVore out.

At least Chuck fights for freedom.

COMMENTS

  • Andrew_D

    Thank you for the optimism.

    Thank you for the passion.

    Thank you for the hope.

    Thank you for the commitment to victory.

    Thank you for showing that it’s not about beating the enemies of our nation; it’s really about some weird endless, nameless struggle for ideological purity according to RedState.

    Thanks for nothing.

    I believe that the GOP will take both houses of Congress. I believe that Fiorina or DeVore can beat Boxer. I believe that America’s best days are ahead of us, and don’t even have to invoke Reagan to believe that.

  • Paul_In_Houston

    Apparently, more people want HIM than her.
    Can’t have THAT.
    -

  • SIConservative

    For starters, candidates have their followers – in some cases sycophants – who will be loyal to them until the often bitter end. It’s not another candidate’s fault for not being able to wrestle them away. When the writing is on the wall, candidates should drop out and endorse the viable candidate most able to carry the flag. In some cases, that could require two candidates entering a room, if necessary with interested leaders, and not leaving until only one of them remains in the race.

    That said, the “not cool” part is that you effectively concede California. While I agree that Boxer has a decided advantage due to the makeup of the state and the inability of either DeVore or Fiorina to solidify the critical mass of support necessary to ensure a primary victory, both of the candidates are only down a few points to Boxer, who’s running in the low to mid 40s, hardly safe territory for an incumbent, especially this year. It’s fair enough to say that neither one should drop out, that Boxer has an advantage, that you’re skeptical of our chances of victory, but the polling numbers don’t suggest complete concession at this point.

  • earlgrey

    I am starting to think that maybe there isn’t enough anger, motivation and more importantly goodwill to turn things around.

  • Andrew_D

    Erick doesn’t speak for me!

    There’s plenty of us with anger, motivation, and yes even goodwill to turn things around! I suspect that Erick has it too – he’s just having a bad day!

  • calical

    Erick keeps saying this, but I don’t see how it has been proven. His crosstabs post certainly does not prove that, as it just shows a bunch of measures and variables that seem to track with overall support, and thus do not really predict anything.

    Also, please, everyone, it is enormously and transparently misleading to claim that DeVore has suddenly doubled in support. It is true that Carly has not increased a statistically significant amount in the last month (although she may have inched up slightly), but this is all equally true about Chuck. His jump from the high-singles to the mid-teens happened about a month ago.

    Finally, while Erick references his showing that DeVore does better against Boxer than Carly (by one point in Rasmussen), the new PPIC poll puts her at two better than him. Now I do not put much of any credence in general election matchups at this stage, as they are largely a measure of incumbent support with a very small amount of variance dedicated to challenger differences (and even that, mostly name recognition), but those who think such polls are accurate should not find that there is a meaningful difference between the candidates’ numbers.

  • kuksool

    I see Fiorinia and De Vore as decent candidates. No need to portray the primary as battle between Heaven & Hell. Support the candidate of your choice and agree to disagree.

  • kuksool

    I see Fiorinia and De Vore as decent candidates. No need to portray the primary as battle between Heaven & Hell. Support the candidate of your choice and agree to disagree.

  • red_oakster

    DeVore has about zero chance of winning the primary. He has not been able to get close to Fiorina. Campbell is at 37%. Of course he can be beaten in a two way race. Erick seems to be denying that possibility with no evidence and against a lot of evidence to the contrary.

    But the most important reason for DeVore to get out is his future. If he finishes a lame third, his ability to move up is over. In contrast, if he chooses to endorse Fiorina now, he earns an immense amount of goodwill and starts as the favorite against Feinstein. Indeed, if 2012 is looking like a wipeout, Feinstein might even decide to retire, leaving DeVore with a clear shot. That’s a pretty exciting prospect.

    Here’s hoping that DeVore makes the right call and gets out soon.

  • Aaron Gardner
  • lookingforanswers

    Danny Tarkanian is Surging too, and his numbers are Way higher than Angles. Tarkanian carries Clark Co. The polls you have seen are Faulty to the core and I wouldn’t be surprised if ol’ Dirty Harry was involved. It is so irresponsible what is being printed I want to scream.
    DANNY TARKANIAN IS NOT ONLY IN THE LEAD, HE IS GOING TO WIN THIS RACE! ERICK, EITHER CONTACT AN INSIDER, OR DO YOUR OWN LEGITIMATE POLL AND FIND OUT THE TRUTH!! IF YOU DONT KNOW WHO TO CONTACT, IM SURE YOU KNOW TARKANIANS CAMPAIGN MANAGER AND IM SURE HED BE HAPPY TO SHARE WITH YOU WHERE YOU CAN GET LEGITIMATE DATA.
    DONT BUY THE BALOGNE..IT’S ROTTEN.. and it sure smells like Harry Reid!!

  • tracycolorado

    CHUCK DEVORE has my vote

  • vinick

    http://www.dailykos.com/storyonly/2010/5/21/868398/-CA-Gov-CA-Sen:-Democrats-hold-modest-leads,-GOP-primaries-potentially-close

  • jamo

    As much as I would prefer DeVore to Carli “the Haircut” Fiorina, it is Campbell that has all the votes, at least in the polls. Campbell is going to win.

    What makes you thihnk that by dropping out, either Fiorina or DeVore would transfer all his or her votes to the other? They’d probably half go to Campbell because havlf the voters can’t stand either Fiorina or DeVore.

    Give up the wishing. If wishes were horses, beggars would ride. Campbell is going to win, and in California, like Massachuetts, that may be as good as you can get.

  • IJB
  • giantsprincess

    Why on earth should Tarkanian drop out of a very tight 3-way race? I don’t see them asking Sue Lowden to drop out. Why? Are they sexist?

    The Tea Party Express – based in California – is sticking their noses in races that they would best leaving alone. They have admitted that while Sharron is their choice, they would be happy to back Tarkanian or even Lowden because they are also Tea Party worthy.

    The Nevada US Senate race isn’t over until the polls close on June 8th. I pray that the best candidate – Danny Tarkanian – comes out on top. If the TPX gets their way and Sharron Angle wins the people of Nevada will have another 6 years of Harry Reid. Harry is going to chew up and spit out Sharron before the summer is over.

  • http://erickbrockway.wordpress.com/ Erick Brockway
  • Mayhem

    But typing in all caps turned me off. Better luck next time.

  • Mayhem

    Do you still suggest they vote for DeVore? I must say, I feel like you’ve been just a tad bi-polar on this race of late.

  • After Seven

    1. Get Boxer Out at all costs
    2. Elect DeVore

    In that order.

  • http://www.ConservativeAlliance.org Richard Dean

    We should ground our ideals (and presumably our actions) in data. What data are you basing yours on Erick? Your entire flip-flop is based on what people are writing over and over about two HIGHLY questionable polls.

    In reality Sharron is still double digits behind Lowden and Tarkanian.

    Your, and frankly RedState’s, credibility ride on your very statement. So, please provide the data you are using to come to your decision. Otherwise, let Nevadans decide for themselves. That goes for you and for the Tea Party Express.

  • finaljeopardy

    DeVore will lose. But that’s all I’m saying. Not from CA, just an observer.

  • SteveLA

    Not sure where or when it started, but it is just silly.

    DeVore will stay in this race, he and Carlie may or may not swap who comes in second, no sign of DeVore surging ahead quite yet, and there has only been one poll done post Palin endorsement. More polls that show a change in that’s good, right now that trend does not exist. DeVore stands about zero chance of winning in the general, and close to zero chance of winning in the primary. DeVore drop out to save us from Campbell, that’s nutty talk and it’s not why we have primaries.

    Let’s see what DeVore does after the primary, will he pull a McClintock or will he hold his nose and work to do the only thing that really matters, BEAT BABS.

  • joayn

    Both Fiorina and Chuck have said (on Hannity) if and when it comes down to it, they will support each other against Campbell.

    Until that time, my vote is for DeVore. But, I sincerely believe, neither Fiorina nor Campbell can win against Boxer.

    If DeVore’s not in it, Boxer will win it.

  • joayn

    but she’s just a space filler, really. Male voters don’t like her, and she holds women a little better, but not much.

    Polling aside, it’s really about the two guys with experience in this race. Erick’s right. Fiorina will never make it to the senate.

  • joayn
  • joayn
  • joayn

    Simple as that.

  • Oz

    Last polling shows:

    Ox in first (you’re designated person to beat)
    Handel in second
    Deal in third

    I personally am leaning toward Deal given his resolve to push an Arizona style immigration law.

    The momentum seems to be with Deal as well.

    If dirt is going to come out on the Ox, it needs to come out sooner rather than later and it needs to come out with a lot of flame otherwise, he’s going to take this thing.

  • e_rowe

    “I did not call on John Hostettler to drop out in Indiana, even when the polling showed he was going to serve as a spoiler for Stutzman.”

    There never was any such polling.

    Not a single poll showed Stutzman finishing ahead of Hostettler. The leaked poll from the Coats campaign and the Survey USA poll both showed that Hostettler was well ahead of Stutzman, and was the only candidate close enough to Coats to overtake him. And even the Stutzman/Senate Conservatives Fund internal poll only showed Stutzman and Hostettler exactly tied.

    As it turned out, Stutzman did marshal a great deal of momentum late in the game and overtook Hostettler. And we’ll never know if Hostettler might have been able to beat Coats had that not happened. But based on the polling data that was available prior to the election, every indication was that if anyone could beat Coats, it was Hostettler, and if anyone could play the spoiler, it would be Stutzman.

    But you are right that Hostettler supporters would not have backed Stutzman anyway. In general, Hostettler supporters were the kind of constitutional purists who want to reform the GOP, and who, as such, wouldn’t be likely to vote for a candidate when that vote would essentially be a way of telling the party that we like it just the way it is, which is what voting for Stutzman essentially said.

  • http://www.erickerickson.org Erick Erickson

    I think Deal would be horrible, though better than Ox.

  • http://www.libertytreehugger.com reverelth

    Or get away with lying about doing so.

    McCain let himself get painted into a corner talking about taxes on emloyee based health care plans. Tim Burns gave Critz red meat when he Burns opened his mouth about a VAT tax. In both cases Democrats ran very effective ads against that, coming off as more fiscally conservative.

  • earlgrey

    Was easily beaten by Ellsworth in a congressional election? I don’t think you have any proof that Stutzman supporters would have gone for Hostettler. Do you? Any polling data there.!

  • Josh LeGuern

    ?No matter her money, no matter her claims that Chuck is the spoiler, and no matter her endorsements, Carly Fiorina will not be the next United States Senator from California?

    You know what though Erick? While Fiorina can lay the majority of the blame at the feet of her incompetence as the CEO of HP, I can’t help but think DeVore supporters and by proxy DeVore himself are partly responsible.

    If we’re going to be honest, if you look at their positions. We have two conservatives in this race. A proven conservative who stood up to squishy Republicans in Sacramento when it counted, Chuck DeVore, and a conservative, who’s not quite as conservative and who hasn’t quite proven herself yet. While I’ve got problems with some of Carly’s positions, the differences between the candidates have more to do with her issues at HP than they do her beliefs.

    But when you look at Sarah Palin’s Facebook page and you see people calling Fiorina a RINO, a liberal and all this stuff. It’s NOT true. You know it and I know it. DeVore and his more informed supporters allowed rumors about Fiorina to fly around by his supporters so that he could have an advantage over her. It’s just not cool.

    I’ve supported DeVore, but I’m thinking of switching over to Fiorina. As incompetent a CEO she was at HP, she’s not running for Governor, she’s running for the US Senate. What matters is how she’s going to vote and if us conservatives can get behind a candidate to take out Barbara Boxer, well then by all means let’s do it. But let’s not concede a race because we deem a state “too liberal.” Let’s not forget Scott Brown (and yes, I know some of his votes have been disappointing) just won in Massachusetts, a state with less opportunity for success for conservatives than California. In 2007, we struck down 5 props that would have raised taxes last year. We’ve got some of the most conservative areas of the country (Orange County, the Central Valley) in our state.

    DeVore or Fiorina CAN beat Boxer. They just have to decide if keeping each other from winning the primary is worth it. I’d support either enthusiastically in the general. I hope they can meet in the next couple of weeks and work it out, because the last thing we need is someone like Tom Campbell.

  • SteveLA

    Someone asked the other day how Obama is going to help save BABS. I came across the following news article.

    EconomicPolicyJournal.com has learned that 32 states have run out funds to make unemployment benefit payments and that the federal government has been supplying these states with funds so that they can make their payments to the unemployed…

    The state of California has borrowed $6.9 billion. “

    I can guess that Obama will find some excuse if BABS is loosing to ??? in order to “forgive” this debt illustrating why we still need BABS as our Senator from CA, after all it’s only our money.

  • IJB

    The majority of this state is predisposed to like Obama, and even ObamaCare – that means pretty much any bone Obama throws Boxer will probably be enough to get her over the top.

    A majority of CA voters are just *looking* for an excuse to vote Dem, even one as bad and as personally incompetent as Boxer. I’m sure Obama can dig up one or two reasons for them to follow through on their natural instincts…

  • SteveLA

    IJB

    Just be watching for the first trial balloons from Obama and how it will be spun. I have little doubt that Obama will do something to help BABS and the far Left wing of the Donk party if she looks to be loosing or doing badly in the polls.

    It’s a matter of when not if in my mind.

  • e_rowe

    If you’re interested in someone for his skills as a politician, rather than what he would do as a legislator, I wouldn’t blame you for overlooking Hostettler. The polls did all show that he would perform better against Ellsworth than any other Republican. I don’t see any reason to think that he would have had any trouble with doing so. The state of Indiana is not the same as the 8th district, 2010 is not the same as 2006 (and let’s not gloss over his 6 wins prior to that), and the Ellsworth he’d run against this time is not the same as the one he lost to then.

    But you are right, it’s debatable how many Stutzman supporters would have gone for Hostettler. Generally speaking, Stutzman supporters like the GOP exactly the way it is and wouldn’t want someone from the far right like Hostettler to rock the boat in the Senate the way he did in the House. Voters like that would be more likely to have just gone with Coats, who is, after all, virtually identical to Stutzman, save for the fact that Coats is further along in his career and has already made it to the lobbyist stage, wherease Stutzman is not there yet.

  • e_rowe

    My main point was merely to respond to Erickson’s claim that there were polls indicating that Hostettler would be nothing more than a spoiler. That simply was never true. The polls did show that about Stutzman, but never Hostettler. Erickson’s either misremembering the polls or playing fast and loose with the facts to make a point.

  • Oz

    I worked at HP when she was CEO and she was bad but I agree that when we are talking about liberal states, we are talking about getting RINOs or BETTER to help with control of the Senate.

    The question that comes up is can Fiorina beat Boxer and if not, can Campbell or DeVore beat Boxer.

    I would rate their chances in order as:

    Campbell
    Fiorina
    Devore

    But where is the cut off line for the Yes / No on winning?

  • notthenews

    agree with you more, Erik.