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RedStatehttps://redstate.com/erick/2011/12/01/the-horserace-for-december-1-2011/feed/Conservative News & Politicsen-usWed, 17 Jun 2026 06:31:32 -0400The Horserace for December 1, 2011<![CDATA[We are a month away from the actual horserace, but it has been going on a while. I have said repeatedly that the race is Mitt Romney’s to lose. It looks like he just might lose it.The race is Romney’s to lose because the race has settled against his favor. The race has settled in “Not Romney’s” favor. The problem, though, is “Not Romney” is not on the ballot. Because the 75% of Republican voters who do not want Mitt Romney cannot settle on an alternative, Mitt holding steady at second place benefits him. The 75% will divide up around him while his 25% holds steady.But few of us, including me, could see Newt’s resurgence. Brought on in an unusually debate heavy campaign season, the money has started pouring in and Newt has risen to replace Romney. Not only that, but Newt’s rise has seen Romney’s numbers start to fall. There is panic in the Romney camp. Herman Cain’s implosion has prompted more consolidation away from Romney toward Gingrich.The question now is can Gingrich overcome his Sisyphean legacy? Gingrich historically has reached the top of the political pile only to spectacularly roll back down it. Conservatives in the 90’s came to loath him as an obstruction to conservative dominance. During the George W. Bush years, Gingrich charted a third way that is now starting to come back on him.If Gingrich can weather the storm for the next three weeks, it becomes Newt Gingrich’s race to lose. History is against him. The voters, so far, are for him. Waiting off stage for his second close up should the voters break out the hook for Gingrich is a governor from Texas — the man who inherited Gingrich’s original campaign team.We’ll get into it all in today’s Horserace.]]>Thu, 01 Dec 2011 12:03:00 -0500<![CDATA[Erick Erickson]]>https://redstate.com/erick/2011/12/01/the-horserace-for-december-1-2011-n41344