Comments on: Morning Briefing for June 12, 2012

By: lineholder

lineholder — Tue, 12 Jun 2012 18:41:21 +0000

Talk about some straight-talking and laying it on the line! I love it when the folks on our side are willing to do their share of this….

“I suspect that many in the Obama administration really don’t believe in private enterprise. At best, they see business as something to be endured so that that it can provide tax money for government programs,” said Jindal.

Responding to Obama?s statement that the private sector was “doing fine,” he added: “Mr. President, I’ve got a message for you: The private sector is not doing well when 23 million Americans are unemployed and underemployed in this great country. This president ? the private sector is so foreign to him, he might need a passport to actually go visit, and he might need a translator to help him talk to folks in the private sector.”

http://www.nationaljournal.com/2012-presidential-campaign/jindal-obama-most-liberal-most-incompetent-president-since-carter-20120608?mrefid=mostViewed

By: lineholder

lineholder — Tue, 12 Jun 2012 18:00:47 +0000

Even in the context of the demographics they’ve attempted to make use of in this poll, it’s rather obvious that they were trying to find a way to present a positive narrative for Obama and the Dems.

It didn’t succeed,of course. But I will say at least this much for them…PPP has been more inclined to report the stats for what they truly are than a lot of other polling orgs have been inclined to do.

I would like to ask you a question, though…

RCP has a lot of different polls being used for averages. Based on what little I’ve learned about evaluating the polls so far, I’d say that the methodologies being used in those polls are skewing the outcomes much more to so the left than it would seem on the surface. Would you agree or disagree?

By: tnfriendofcoal101368

tnfriendofcoal101368 — Tue, 12 Jun 2012 17:52:12 +0000

By: tnfriendofcoal101368

tnfriendofcoal101368 — Tue, 12 Jun 2012 17:50:20 +0000

everywhere – I tell people add 5 to the Republican vote total just for house affect.

By: tnfriendofcoal101368

tnfriendofcoal101368 — Tue, 12 Jun 2012 17:48:05 +0000

hard in Florida though and will need a big turnout in the panhandle.

By: tnfriendofcoal101368

tnfriendofcoal101368 — Tue, 12 Jun 2012 17:47:12 +0000

Romney 5-10…terrible economic environment, Republican lien in a normal year. The win there won’t be as comfortable as North Carolina but we won’t be up all night waiting on Florida either. If I would take a stab probably a 5 point Romney win.

By: Neil Stevens

Neil Stevens — Tue, 12 Jun 2012 17:46:17 +0000

PPP in particular has *long* been biased about NC, long before DKos started buying polls from them.

By: commonsenseobserver

commonsenseobserver — Tue, 12 Jun 2012 17:39:18 +0000

Isn’t it still a swing state?

By: tnfriendofcoal101368

tnfriendofcoal101368 — Tue, 12 Jun 2012 17:37:46 +0000

PPP is performing the service Markos pays them for.

By: tnfriendofcoal101368

tnfriendofcoal101368 — Tue, 12 Jun 2012 17:36:50 +0000

It’s not even a swing state this time…the only Southern swing state is Virginia and that is only because the Northern Virginia DC suburbs.

By: Neil Stevens

Neil Stevens — Tue, 12 Jun 2012 17:36:39 +0000

NC-based PPP dreams of the state being as solidly Dem as it was during Jim Crow.

By: lineholder

lineholder — Tue, 12 Jun 2012 17:30:41 +0000

The breakdown of demographics per political affiliation is pretty much so in alignment with voter registration in the state. In 2010 and into 2012, it’s been turnout that has made the difference.

Also, it appears that 20% D “other for President” phenomenon that was noted in the primary vote is continuing to hold true…except that those 20% Ds are aligning with Romney (according to this poll)

Another interesting factor to note is that this poll included a higher percentage of people polled of minority status based on race than PPP has tended to poll in the past (22% black and 4% other). Of those two minorities, Obama’s approval is 77% in the African American demographic and 56% amongst other minority groups in the state. (That’s actually LOWER than what is has been)

By: Melody Warbington (rwm52)

Melody Warbington (rwm52) — Tue, 12 Jun 2012 17:03:23 +0000

missing your Daily Links for almost a week now.

Whatever you’re doing, hope you’re having fun and all is well.

By: commonsenseobserver

commonsenseobserver — Tue, 12 Jun 2012 16:47:10 +0000

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/PPP_Release_POTUS_NC_061212.pdf

With a Dem. sample advantage of… 8 points. But the 2008 results are reasonable.

By: tnfriendofcoal101368

tnfriendofcoal101368 — Tue, 12 Jun 2012 14:38:00 +0000

still not telling pollsters from the primary, heavy Santorum home vote.

By: commonsenseobserver

commonsenseobserver — Tue, 12 Jun 2012 13:53:24 +0000

I think Romney has a real shot here, but he should focus on the other battlegrounds first. It’s surprising how popular Casey is, though. And who are the 20% of Republicans voting for Obama?

By: tnfriendofcoal101368

tnfriendofcoal101368 — Tue, 12 Jun 2012 13:36:15 +0000

Is normally sample neutral, the big number here is Obama is actually losing independents. The poll has him at 43%, among independents, that means 57% have made the decision to fire him (even if 22% of those aren’t admitting that to the pollster). In addition, Obama is only sitting at 51% among women. That doesn’t even account for the economy part of the polling which is already a Romney lead. Trust me Axelrod is horrified looking at this polling and hopes it is an outlier because if not Obama is going to have to defend Pennsylvania and also spend resources in GOTV efforts in Philladelphia.

By: commonsenseobserver

commonsenseobserver — Tue, 12 Jun 2012 13:27:13 +0000

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/institutes-and-centers/polling-institute/pennsylvania/release-detail?ReleaseID=1761

Down from 8 in the previous poll.

I’m more worried about the Senate poll. But Romney is weaker than expected among independents, which means the poll may be oversampling Republicans a little.

By: commonsenseobserver

commonsenseobserver — Tue, 12 Jun 2012 10:27:49 +0000

http://www.thefiscaltimes.com/Articles/2012/06/11/Romneys-Jobs-Plan-Gets-Hammered-by-Economists.aspx#page2

So they ignore this:

http://blogs.wsj.com/economics/2012/06/09/number-of-the-week-corporations-not-hoarding-cash/

That’s not counting the impact of taxation and regulation on startups, consumer demand, and business confidence.