There are storm clouds on the horizon. A day after Mitt Romney’s massive win in Florida he opened his mouth and promptly told conservatives he was incapable of articulating conservatism. Then Newt Gingrich found a bright line rule in the Republican rules that clearly and precisely states that all delegates awarded before April 1, 2012, must be proportional. There goes giving Romney all fifty delegates | Read More »
This is it. The final debate before Florida will be tonight from Jacksonville, FL on CNN. It may be the final debate of the primary season. If it becomes just Mitt, Newt, and Ron, there is no way that MItt Romney will want to share the stage with them after tonight. I’ll be on CNN for post debate coverage, though I’ll be in Atlanta tonight. | Read More »
It changed so suddenly. Huntsman out Monday. Today, Rick Perry is out. Huntsman, barely a factor in South Carolina, threw his support to Mitt Romney. Rick Perry, more of a factor, threw his support to Gingrich. The Monday debate in South Carolina is a critical detail. Polling before it showed a Romney lead. Polling after it showed a Gingrich surge. Then Sarah Palin endorsed Newt | Read More »
It’s a different horserace of sorts this week and from here on out. Gone are the individual prospects of each candidate. We have the real front runner now — Mitt Romney. The question remaining is which candidate, if any, can cause Mitt to stumble. No non-incumbent has ever swept Iowa and New Hampshire within a Republican Primary until Mitt Romney. He did it while getting | Read More »
Nobody knows the winner of Iowa but Jesus. That’s the dirty little secret. Matt Lewis hits the nail on the head on this. Nobody knows. Why? Well, the caucuses are a big event. You don’t just go into a voting booth, check a box, and leave. You’re there for a while. You hear speeches. You get persuaded. Then you vote. It is slow going. And | Read More »
We’re headed into Christmas and people are starting to tune out. Before they tune out, the last images they are seeing before setting their eyes on a Christmas tree, are Newt Gingrich under attack from Team Romney, Ron Paul under attack from everyone, Michele Bachmann and Rick Perry on a bus tour in Iowa, and Rick Santorum getting help from evangelicals. The clock ticks down | Read More »
We are less than a month from the Iowa Caucuses. As we wind the clock down I think it is important to note that the 2012 campaign season might present the most damning indictment yet of the ineptness of political reporting about the Republican campaign season. Since November of 2010, political reporters in this nation have been telling us Mitt Romney would be the nominee. | Read More »
We are a month away from the actual horserace, but it has been going on a while. I have said repeatedly that the race is Mitt Romney’s to lose. It looks like he just might lose it. The race is Romney’s to lose because the race has settled against his favor. The race has settled in “Not Romney’s” favor. The problem, though, is “Not Romney” | Read More »
There is a difference between being dead and being on life support. Rick Perry is not dead. He has $15 million. He is the Governor of Texas. Donors cannot just ignore him. But he is on life support after last night. It is entirely recoverable. He’s still got something like 2.72 million more debates to suffer through. But wow. How he responds and recovers will | Read More »
I had several talks with a number of highly regarded political analysts, pollsters, and others this past week. There was a common thread in all the conversations that surprised me. They said this was not a race between Romney vs. Perry or Romney vs. Cain. They said this is a race between Rick Perry and Herman Cain, with Newt Gingrich as a wild card. Now, | Read More »
Is Rick Perry wasting our time? He came out with a great energy plan. He came out with an amazing economic plan. But I get the sense the campaign is in denial. Word is leaking that he may start skipping debates. I don’t blame anyone for skipping some of the debates. There are far too many and they do little more than provoke fights without | Read More »
It’s a turning point on the campaign trail. No one has knocked Herman Cain from his perch yet, but there is a growing consensus among both Democrat and Republican consultants that this is still a race between Mitt Romney and Rick Perry. Why aren’t they taking Herman Cain seriously? Why is this a Romney v. Perry race? And what about Michele Bachman? Intentional or not, | Read More »
It was the one question in the Bloomberg-Washington Post debate that gave away the game. A source close to, but not in, the Bachmann campaign told me it was that question when he realized the game was over for Michele Bachmann. It was that one question that, according to a source close to the Perry camp and a source close to the Cain camp, raised | Read More »
Earlier this week, I focused on what I personally don’t like about each of the candidates. Today, with the race rapidly consolidating into a three man race, it is time to have a very frank conversation about each of the candidate’s objective problems. The calendar is collapsing in on them. The fundraising period before the start of the actual race is shrinking. There is limited | Read More »
Herman Cain has finally found that path to victory while Michele Bachmann appears to have stumbled right off it. This past week, the horserace really went through a shakeup. Even Jon Huntsman has a pulse, at least in one state. Rick Perry fell over. Mitt Romney is holding steady, and the primary calendar is reshuffling throwing in some greater complications for candidates. And everyone and | Read More »
Rick Perry has locked in his front runner lead and in a novel twist of things, some Democrats are starting to panic. Why? Because the way Perry talks about immigration works to his advantage with hispanic immigrants and hispanic immigrants want someone other than Obama. At the same time, Michele Bachmann seems to have hit the self-destruct button on her campaign. Even Ed Rollins is | Read More »
Mitt Romney won the NBC-Politico debate on points and Newt Gingrich won on rhetoric. But Rick Perry held his own and, consequently, locks in front runner status for now. If, however, Perry can’t improve his debate performances, he may be a short-lived front runner. Michele Bachmann is fading from view. Newt Gingrich reminds us he is a good debater. Even the folks on MSNBC say | Read More »
IA Caucus: Feb. 6, 2012 NH Primary: Feb. 14, 2012 NV Caucus: Feb. 18, 2012 SC Primary: Feb. 28, 2012 It’s time to step back a bit and expand the horserace out. Why? There are five debates coming up in rapid succession. A lot of people think if someone unexpected has a knockout performance the person could be revitalized and get back in the game. | Read More »
IA Caucus: Feb. 6, 2012 NH Primary: Feb. 14, 2012 NV Caucus: Feb. 18, 2012 SC Primary: Feb. 28, 2012 Polls suggest it is “put up or shut up” time for Sarah Palin on whether she’ll run for President or, if not, assume the role of Kingmaker — and her endorsement will have power. Rick Perry has vaulted into the lead nationally, but I still | Read More »
IA Caucus: Feb. 6, 2012 NH Primary: Feb. 14, 2012 NV Caucus: Feb. 18, 2012 SC Primary: Feb. 28, 2012 Tim Pawlenty is out of the race. Rick Perry is in the race. Not only is Perry in, he is surging to first place in the Rasmussen polling. But it is still Mitt Romney’s race to lose right now. The race is beginning to find | Read More »
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