It is a mathematical improbability that Rick Santorum will get to the magic number of 1,144 — the number of delegates needed to be the Republican Presidential nominee. It is a political improbability that Rick Santorum will stop Mitt Romney from getting to 1,144. Last night in Illinois, Mitt Romney won his first victory without caveats. Even in Florida, a big win, there were plenty | Read More »
“In five years of campaigning it is stunning to me that the Romney camp still has no clue how to play the expectations game.” This morning you were going to read a post from me saying Mitt Romney was definitely now the nominee and it was time for Santorum and Gingrich to drop out. The post was predicated on late polling and early corresponding exit | Read More »
[Updated] Apologies to Rick Tyler of Winning Our Future, who has expressed his displeasure with this post to me on twitter, pointing out as well that some of his ad buys have been here at RedState. Online advertising hasn’t been my concern below as I’m sure it is geotargetted, etc. As to the television and radio advertising, a friend familiar with the ad buying of | Read More »
Many political analysts compare 2012′s Republican Presidential cycle to the Democrats’ go of it in 2008. Barack Obama deployed a delegate strategy while Hillary Clinton went for big state wins. It worked to Barack Obama’s favor. This year, it works for Romney. Both took a while and had some ups and downs, but ultimately Barack Obama prevailed. After Ohio came in tonight, it is clear | Read More »
The reality is I think conservative activists are starting to come to terms with Mitt Romney. His national and state polling is starting to trend up. More and more I hear conservative activists tell me that while they are not sold on Romney and he has not closed the deal, Gingrich and Santorum have not closed the deal either. The great volume of undecided voters | Read More »
This morning I had the privilege of conducting the first interview with Newt Gingrich in Atlanta, Ga. following the primary elections in Arizona and Michigan. The former speaker seemed resigned to the results and matter-of-fact about Tuesday night’s results, emotionless about facts he can now do nothing about. He spoke quietly and calmly with intensity, if not energy. I started our interview asking him about | Read More »
He was the elephant in the room, so to speak, at the CNN Debate in Mesa, AZ. And this issue is why Campaign 2012 on the Republican side is so depressing. The he is George W. Bush. And the issue is that Rick Santorum and Mitt Romney spent most of the debate campaigning against George W. Bush without using his name. They went after each | Read More »
It was the last debate. Newt Gingrich won it. He was the only candidate who repeatedly steered the questions toward Barack Obama. He was the only candidate who dared point out that the media barely touched Obama’s infanticide support as an Illinois State Senator. He returned to the role of elder statesman. The crowd leaned to Mitt Romney. It was probably inevitable. Mesa, AZ is | Read More »
What a weird campaign season we are having. Let me present you a truth that some of you may bristle under, but is true nonetheless. No matter how right the cause or principle, it may still be a political liability. I’ll start with the one you’ll agree with it. Barack Obama and many on the left may believe that abortion . . . er . | Read More »
Today is a holiday here at RedState, but I’m doing laundry, packing, and preparing to fly out to Arizona. On Wednesday night, CNN will bring the nation what may very well be the last debate in the Republican Presidential Primary season. From Mesa, AZ, Mitt Romney, Rick Santorum, Newt Gingrich, and Ron Paul will take the stage one last time. At least we can presume | Read More »
Tonight on the Erick Erickson Show I’ll delve into lunch box inspections, the cancellation of the CNN debate, and at 7:05 pm ET, believe it or not, I’ll defend George Stephanopolous. Sometime around 8pm I hope to have time to take on George Lucas and his latest “story” about who shot first. You can listen live right here on the WSB live stream. You can | Read More »
As I said back in December, I have no plans to endorse a candidate for President of the United States. I wrote, at the time, “I would prefer instead to tell you exactly what I think about each of the candidates, good or bad, and let the chips fall where they may.” Since then, I have routinely been asked who I would endorse. Today, after | Read More »
Political analysts have a need to sound expertly and important when it comes to elections. They have to go in depth and explain artfully and deeply why someone won and someone lost. It was the debates. It was the ground game. It was the strategies. It was the likability versus dislikability of the candidates. On and on they go. What gets danced around is the | Read More »
If I were a national Republican operative, I’d be very worried about tonight. If I were a Mitt Romney fan, I’d be ecstatic. The Romney win in Florida was huge. He won the hispanic vote. He split tea party activists and evangelicals. He won where people live. Gingrich won the panhandle and largely tied in the few northern Florida population centers, but it was Romney’s | Read More »
I was surprised to land in Miami today for CNN’s coverage of the Florida Presidential Preference Primary and hear one Newt Super PAC ad over and over. I heard it on rock stations. I heard it on Rush Limbaugh. I heard it on a sports talk station. It attacked Mitt Romney for abortion. Abortion. In a state with a massive housing crisis and a state | Read More »
Mitt Romney will win Florida tonight. The victory is already locked in. Early voting, etc. have helped. Here’s what I’m looking for in Florida. The margin of victory by Romney. Polling has Romney between 10 and 12 points ahead. So if he is 9 points ahead or less, given that he has one hell of a ground game here, that suggests Gingrich was able to | Read More »
This morning I noted that Rick Santorum and Newt Gingrich together get more votes than Romney and several polls out in the past few weeks have had Santorum votes going to Gingrich. That has been the convention wisdom. About two weeks ago I decided the conventional wisdom was wrong, but having been told for two weeks I was wrong, I made the mistake of sticking | Read More »
“It’s like we’re facing Jimmy Carter and nominating Alf Landon.” More and more polls show two things: (1) tonight Mitt Romney will win Florida and (2) Newt Gingrich and Rick Santorum will combined get more votes. In fact, moving forward, the Romney campaign will probably engage in a concerted effort to prop up Rick Santorum because as long as he stays in the race, Gingrich | Read More »
I’m biased, but I think the real winner last night was CNN and I feel confident I’d say that even if they didn’t send me a paycheck. After that disastrous and embarrassing NBC debate, Wolf Blitzer held his own, did not get devoured by Newt Gingrich, and engaged in a lot of substance without a lot of random questions like . . . oh . | Read More »
All the members of the Republican Party who have been complicit and collaborative in the destruction of our nation in the past few decades always talking about smaller government while never fighting against the tide of creeping socialism have now come out against Newt Gingrich. Yesterday, at National Review, Elliot Abrams attacked Newt Gingrich for attacking Ronald Reagan from the right. Today, it is Bob | Read More »
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