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In response to Vassar Bushmills’ “Situation Analysis”

Blue State Secession Dreams in 2004Since I am the “ErinMist” referenced in Vassar Bushmills’ diary post, I thought I should add my two cents here.  By the way…the name’s Michael. ;-)

As I mentioned in one of my comments in the Texas thread referenced, my background is in both political science and in history from the University of Virginia — Mr. Jefferson’s own — and my experience has taught me that each clearly informs the other. Given that background, I noted that one of the moderators had given a clearly glib answer to a comment by another reader that Texas should secede, and whose gist was that we should just go to war against that state — as that is somehow the automatic reaction anytime a member of our American family should want to leave: we just kill them, even if that member should be one with whom we share the most in common and who’s values we ourselves hold.

It’s the “Constitution-as-Suicide-Pact” line of thinking.

While my points and the scenarios that I referenced were academic — a thought experiment in the “what to do in a worst case scenario” that is still many years and and many judicial and legislative abuses away — I asked readers to play it out, all the way out, to when voting Republican didn’t matter, and everything was run by a judiciary, and your state is no longer a sovereign.  Then what? Where do you go? What do you do?

I never was able to get a straight answer from the recipient of my query, who withdrew in a fit of “hear no evil”, and even Redstaters here were somewhat split.  All this talk of liberty and death, but several quite willing to embrace the yolk of any benign tyranny if it meant they didn’t have to watch their children die or lose their SUV, or other such comfort that makes all this talk seem so “scary”.

My point was that secession, of the likely outcomes, was the most reasoned, logical, peaceful, and least disruptive of a whole host of unpleasant choices in such an apocalyptic circumstance. To be clear, I didn’t advocate it, and in fact, made it clear that there are a lot of things we can do in the interim to return this Government to its properly constructed role. But what was “silly” and in the long term, quite dangerous, was to dismiss it out of hand as some chose to do.

So how those comments could have inspired, influenced, or in anyway resulted in the paranoid analysis that Vassar Bushmills’ diary posits, whereby November elections will somehow be canceled or invalidated, is quite remarkable.  Given the history of this country, and the apparent rancor that has at times divided its citizens, we are no where near any such effort, no matter how “deep” the Left might be, even should they actually be “all in”.  My own view is that they have in fact committed all to their cause, and have expended considerable resources and capital to arrive where they are today. But so what?

It has been an expenditure of resource, capital, and credibility that will be for naught, leaving them drained, poor, and lacking the ability to make a serious argument. Witness how much even the “racist” charge now no longer carries weight. The little boy Left has cried “wolf” once too often.

So being “all in” has only hastened their demise, a political “Pickett’s charge” that has failed, and the price for which will be paid on the first Tuesday of this November.

Being the impatient people we are as Americans. eight years of ANYTHING is about all we’ll put up with — even if it’s eight years of prosperity. After 8 years of Clinton, foibles aside, the economy had had a good run and we elected a Bush.  Eight years of Bush, another good run, given two wars, resulted in Mr. Hope and Change, who turned out to be Mr. Failure and Despair.  So now comes November, and Dems are freaking out because they’re going to take a hit, but under the most reasonable predictions available today, STILL stand to control the Senate, the Presidency, and most of the Federal judiciary, to say nothing of the Federal bureaucracy which never, ever goes away.

Yet the author of this diary gives 50/50 odds there to be a civil-war inciting, illegal, and unenforcable cancellation or invalidation of those elections (or their results) because of ….what?  They didn’t get 100% of everything they wanted??? That’s a highly unreasonable conclusion to draw from the events, especially in light of the glaring fact that there would still be a vast majority of Democratic hands at the tiller of government after the November elections.

The chasm between that objective reality, and the conclusion that events are now conspiring to create some “November surprise” is simply too vast for this reader to leap.

Instead, I was seeking to take a broader view in my comments. The one that notes quite correctly that history is very much against us, something that Jefferson and all of the Founders clearly knew and wrote about, because it is the very nature of government to grow and expand and to do so until the people rebel and toss it off to start over. And it is inconsequential whether Reagan Republicans control that government, or Marxist Democrats — Government. Will. Grow.   Eventually it will grow to the point where it no longer can feed itself, and you can use any empire in history as an example, or point to recent Grecian failures that Democrats seem intent on mirroring.

So while the November 2010 elections are critical, and may in fact be the most important of our lifetimes, they are, in the sweep of history a mere speed bump towards this government’s eventual, inevitable, and utterly unavoidable demise. And the results of those elections, whether we win or lose, does nothing to mitigate a need for an eventual and peaceful “exit strategy” — though one that our children or grandchildren will more likely require, than anyone reading this in 2010. Or 2020 for that matter.

It is hardly treason or ill reasoning to point this out, but merely historical precedence, and no less than our Founders would be shocked out of their powdered wigs to see the government they started still functioning (if bearing no resemblance to anything they intended). But if that is all true, what are we voting for?  Why fight and why defend “the United States of America” if it’s all for nothing in the end anyway?

As I pointed out in my comments, I come from a family who traces a military tradition back to 1863, and has shed its blood in every conflict this country has found itself in. But I am here to witness and testify that none of that blood was shed for a “government”, but rather for the idea and ideals behind that government. It is the liberty, equal justice, independence, values, and opportunities enshrined in our Constitution and Declaration that drives men to bleed and die, not a party or whether liberals or conservatives are writing the rules. And those values will continue to live in the hearts of patriots whether this remains the United States of America, or whether there’s a Western America, a Chesapeake Union, a New Britain, an Eastern Canadian Commonwealth, and a North Mexico as states find more in common with others than we currently find with each other.

Government is the MEANS to those ends, and countries exist to protect those interests. But I would hardly be the first to note that when government is destructive to those ends, it’s time to move on. To wit, Mr. Jefferson: “That whenever any form of government becomes destructive to these ends, it is the right of the people to alter or to abolish it, and to institute new government, laying its foundation on such principles and organizing its powers in such form, as to them shall seem most likely to effect their safety and happiness. Prudence, indeed, will dictate that governments long established should not be changed for light and transient causes; and accordingly all experience hath shown that mankind are more disposed to suffer, while evils are sufferable, than to right themselves by abolishing the forms to which they are accustomed. But when a long train of abuses and usurpations, pursuing invariably the same object evinces a design to reduce them under absolute despotism, it is their right, it is their duty, to throw off such government, and to provide new guards for their future security.”

Certain Redstate readers, perhaps because they grew up in Northern states or were educated by teachers that equated “Slavery” and “Treason”, with “Secession”,  cannot countenance the very logical, very reasonable position that these 50 sovereign states did not sign a suicide pact, and that whether we allow one or another to leave peacefully or force it back into a Federal subjugation that we ourselves might be seeking to escape will determine whether that inevitable and utterly predictable “dis-union” will be bloody or not.

Secession is most emphatically NOT off the table, as Texas has clearly demonstrated.  As long as there is a Gov. Perry, Obama knows that Texas holds a hand that he cannot defeat without losing 30 more states in the process.  It is only the reality, or perceived reality, that if final push came to final shove, Texas would in fact declare its independence that will cause Uncle Sam to back down, even if it means they lose face in a red state they stand no chance of ever carrying. No one — left or right — thinks Perry is bluffing. And that’s why he’ll prevail.

Again, I repeat, and I emphasize, that we are perhaps a generation removed from ever having, or being forced, to deploy a secession “card”, and we have a million other options in front of us. But anyone who confuses secession with “slavery” or some wistful “Lost Cause” is being willfully naive. While the secession of Southern states did not result in an outcome those states hoped, colonial secession from Great Britain certainly did.

For a country, the United States, that was founded, in part, through the very strategy of secession in order to redress grievances inflicted upon it by a tyrant, for those same states, or for those same citizens now to say “talk of secession is silly”  is disingenuous at best. To remove it from civil discourse, to “take it off the table” because they were taught it equated to treason and slavery, is to remove the last, reasonable hope for a peaceful parting of the ways among the states, and a Federal government that is hopelessly, but predictably out of control.

Take secession off the table, and when all the other options run out — and they will — you’re only left with war.

And that, my dear readers, is not something I’m prepared to do, not now, not ever. In the meantime, I reiterate — vote conservative. Usually that means Republican, but your mileage may vary. ;-)

It matters, now more than ever.

P.S.  That map at the beginning of this article? From a liberal web site distraught at the re-election of George Bush.  Seems our “blue” brethren can tire of us “red” folks too.

COMMENTS

  • qixlqatl

    “The battle, sir, is not to the strong alone; it is to the vigilant, the active, the brave. Besides, sir, we have no election. If we were base enough to desire it, it is now too late to retire from the contest. There is no retreat but in submission and slavery! Our chains are forged! Their clanking may be heard on the plains of Boston! The war is inevitable — and let it come! I repeat it, sir, let it come!”

    When that moment arrives is not within my ability to forsee or control, but arrive it will. There is still much that can be done to forestall it, and all other options must be exhausted first.

    • mikerazar
      • E Pluribus Unum

        i dont think we lost 2 mil in that one.

        • mikerazar

          totalled close to 2 million. “Only” 800,000 officially dead but in those days many of the wounded were said to envy the dead.

          For perspective, there were fewer than 4 million slaves in the Confederacy. Don’t you think there might have been a less painful way to free them?

          I know of no precedent in all of world history for that kind of sacrifice by one group to free another. The race baiters should at least acknowledge that fact.

          • Achance

            but the accepted figure is between six and seven hundred thousand killed by enemy action or disease while in service. Likewise, there is no really accurate measure of the wounded but while your number may be high, it probably isn’t much high. We gloss over a lot of the aftermath of the Civil War. For many years the largest single expenditure of the State of Mississippi was for prostheses for CW amputees. Many of the surviving veterans had severe cases of what we’d now call PTSD and many were addicted to morphine or laudenum. Laudenum use in mid-19th Century America was epidemic. CS General John Bell Hood, who surrendered Atlanta and bashed his army to oblivion at Franklin was addicted to laudenum. Pensions for CW soldiers bedeviled th finances of states North and South for many years after The War. Both sides maintained veterans’ homes and hospitals for a half century or more at enormous expense. Both sides had welfare payments for widows and orphans for many years afterward. The US stayed totally committed to gold coinage for many years because the most important part of the 14th Amendment at the time of passage was the fact that it repudiated all Confederate debt and guaranteed that all US war debt would be repaid in gold rather than the inflated Greenback paper currency. The list could be longer if I thought about it some more.

            The 1860 cash value of all slave property in The South was $4-6 Billion dollars. The US buying the slaves from their owners at face value would have been a bargain at twice the price. That aaid, the Civil War was fought more about ego than about property, money, or politics. The South had simply had it with being denigrated by arrogant Yankees and if Lincoln’s election or the firing on Ft. Sumpter hadn’t started it, something else would have.

          • renny

            Lincoln is attibuted with freeing 3,940,000 slaves.

            And 600,000 died in the Civil War. What 2,000,000?

          • mikerazar
        • qixlqatl

          Here’s a link for you guys. I reccomend reading this, but, hey, whatever: http://libertyonline.hypermall.com/henry-liberty.html

          I guess I just can’t understand a person who would rather live under the lash than fight to be free…and freedom *is* a constant fight, in one theater or another– political, economic, societal or military. Right now, this is a political fight, but I have ZERO confidence that being politically defeated, the progressives (or whatever you call them) will retire from the field and acknowledge a conservative victory.

          Here’s a quote from John Adams…

          “…If you love wealth more than liberty, the tranquility of servitude better than the animating contest of freedom, depart from us in peace. We ask not your counsel nor your arms. Crouch down and lick the hand that feeds you. May your chains rest lightly upon you and may posterity forget that you were our countrymen.”
          Delivered to the State House in Philadelphia on Aug 1st, 1776

          I am reminded of a conversation I had with my mother a few weeks ago. I can’t remember my exact words– I was just wondering aloud why progressive elements are so intent on aquiring money and power– but I remember mom’s exact words:

          “They want to be God.”

          I don’t think I can (or should) elaborate on that.

  • http://thesandsinstitute.org Vassar Bushmills

    …except the ‘paranoid’ part.

    My only request is that you reciprocate with a closer reading of what I wrote, which I admit, in scholarly circles can a hard thing to do, as I do dance around a little with my prose. My mention of you was by way of compliment, not derogation. Sorry you misread that, as I thought your arguments in the Hogan piece were well stated and grounded, and like you, i don’t like the knee-jerk references to the last civil war to explain this one. We should develop a board game to fight those fantastical battles.

    About secession, another RS’er called me out , and was right in that my use of “silly” was intemperate as it appeared aimed at the general theme, but I was speaking only in the context of the next 180 days and inside the four corners of those paranoid things I said about criminality in Washington.

    I am known here as a big nullifier, which can only be successfully carried out with the threat of secession on the table. The mineral/oil rich provinces of western Canada have used that club deftly over the years against Ottawa. People who know me here know how I feel about federalism and the right/duty of the states to reestablish it by telling Washington “what fer” as often as the subject comes up.

    As with the entire purpose of my SitAnal article(s) going back to 2009, even before the immaculation, and Obama had more fully revealed himself…and I gather you missed this…the threat of secession works best when it plays on the mind of your opponents. The mere talk of it can alter the course of a policy, much as by broadcasting to a robber you know where, how and when his next heist will take place. He may hunker down, or change targets, or even continue anyway…but he will be far more wary, and spend more time looking to the left and the right, never knowing from which bush we’ll jump. He will be less secure. This is a good thing, n’est ce pas?

    You see, my analyses are not based on law, history or politics so much as plain, clear logic, and an understanding of both the socialist and criminal mind…some of that advanced education coming from the hallowed halls of UVA.

    Recalling the horrible years Churchill went thru in the mid-30s’ trying to convince England that Hitler was not a mere bump in the inexorable upward course of European civilization, I feel one should only become invested in a notion to the extent you can prepare for it or prevent it. That’s what we try to do here.

    I cannot agree with your general theory of history, that this is a mere speed bump along that highway. I believe the next two years will be as consequential as the Reformation. To say that I am alarmist, or paranoid, only distinguishes us, as Muggerdige and Duranty were once distinguished. Like that, only one of us can be right, and on that, we will have to wait til 2013 or so to swap champagne. Me? I’d just like to see ugly history prevented from time to tim.

    About criminality and what criminals do when in dead pursuit of criminal ends, and about socialism, and what socialists do when in pursuit of socialist ends,, and when both are so very close to that brass ring? I’m afraid I can’t walk that back. You’ll have to use your own logic and common sense to decide what “next steps” they will employ. I laid out a few here myself, and will revisit this in about a month with an update, and again in October. As I said somewhere else, this is an extemporaneous political dance where every step is dictated by the preceding.

    For now, it’s out there, the air is clearer, and I am grateful that you shared you insights and your scholarship.
    Cordially

    • http://www.rightproadvisors.com erinmist

      Only a fellow Wahoo could have written so well. ;-)

      Vassar, it’s not that I disagreed with the reasoning per se, only the conclusion. And yes, I’ve admittedly not seen some of the other Sit/Analysis diaries, so you have my apologies for mis-characterizing you with those who, in knee-jerk fashion, immediately seize up in horror when the “S” word gets used….even in a thought experiment. I completely agree, obviously, that it is the threat, real or perceived, of secession is what makes various strategies successful, not the least of which is the nullification you mention.

      And with regards to the general theory of history, all empires fall. All governments fail. Surely you don’t believe that 300 or 500 years from now there will still be a United States? I think we can argue the when and the how, but certainly not the “if”.

      Where I do think we agree is that the Left has certainly shifted gears, mashed the accelerator, and is hell-bent for leather in its quest. I just think they’ve reached that point of diminishing returns where everything they try, each act more radical and desperate than the last, simply weakens them more, making them ever less relevant. It’s like watching a train wreck in slow motion — you know how it ends, but you can’t take your eyes off it. Where that wreck lands, though, is still in doubt. So yes, 2013 will be a telling year indeed, and while I work and pray our side prevails, I hold no illusions that the GOP is going to come running to our aid, Constitution held high, and start dismantling the New Deal, the Great Society, and an alphabet soup of Federal agencies who decades ago exceeded their usefulness.

      So I guess we’ll see what happens…loser buys the winner a Gusburger at the White Spot. ;-)

      • teresakoch

        the fact that you can both be civil when disagreeing is, perhaps, the best thing of all. It certainly helps me to see the many different angles of situations. For that, I thank you both!

        None of us can know what the future holds. Both scenarios that you present are scary, but if we at least have an idea of what to guard against, that makes all of us better able to fight whatever may come.

        Thanks for the insight – from both of you. It helps us all.

      • http://thesandsinstitute.org Vassar Bushmills

        …now there’s a thought. Some years ago i tried to synthesize the dark ages down to a single set of core seed, inasmuch as socialism is mathematically guaranteed to self-destruct every 2-3 generations, Marx was wrong, and they (the Left) still don’t know why. Kingdoms came and went, but for a 1000 years the feudal system persisted.

        I think there is a seed, call it what you will…Liberty, Freedom. Moses Sands called it “the universal desire of every man to build, own and pass on his own House” …that is peculiarly American and that seed, once planted can last a millenium….and with it the cor e principles of the Constitution, adjusted for cultural windage.

        The corporate United States? I doubt it, or even that I care. The core set of principles most conservatives here struggle to protect are far more transcendent than that.

        But i do have a suggestion, esp if you are close to mathematicians. I believe Liberty and its opposite, Statism, can be proved mathematically, you know, as Pythagoreans would try. I’m only good up to first year calculus. Do this, and do it well and the book will be read, like Hayek, for years after you’re gone.

        I even have a reason for wanting to see this done. It makes Liberty cool in academe again, and removes the pedestrian, emotional paint they’ve tried to paint the soul of Liberty with since the early 1900′s.

        You seem to have the right kind of mind, so give it some thought.
        The next two years I’m not going to be doing much in the “academic sphere”. Win or lose, hook or crook, From Nov on, thru 2013, we’ll be moving more in to action spheres.

        Re Your last comment, watch carefully the work of ColdWarrior here, and his precinct project, which is a way for local folks to take over the GOP, thru process, from the bottom up. (With money, even quickly. This is why I mentioned him.)

        Oh, I root for the Hokies these days.
        Cheers

      • vmo335

        ‘Tis a good thing that the White Spot is located across from the hospital. When the victor collects on the wager I would like to pay the bill. In exchange, I would request that i be permitted to sit amongst the two of you (quietly) while y’all engage in debate and conversation. My family and i live in the county of Mr. Jefferson’s residence-the city is just too blue.

  • Scope

    The Democrats, that have gone “all in” have hastened their own demise, and will pay the price this November. But, even if the Republicans take majorities, it won’t matter. The Democrats will still be in charge. The government will continue to grow, far beyond what the founders have envisioned. It might just be a bump in the road, but, it might not. We have generations to wait and see what really happens, and there are many many ways to deal with this. Just in case the worst comes to pass, after you lose your children or SUV, you have to at least talk about succession now, just in case, because, it is the most reasonable, rational and peaceful solution to what might happen in 2020.

    Be sure to leave your battle plan for future generations, because, you and your family have military experience, you have studied political science and history at UVA (so did Woodrow Wilson by the way), and you speak with the highest amount of intelligence, which you gained at a University that would never be one of those awful indoctrination incubators.

    Must be great to be someone who is so smart. So smart that you can’t even recognize a compliment when it is sent your way. They must be rare for you.

    • http://www.rightproadvisors.com erinmist

      who pee’d in your corn flakes this morning?

      I didn’t take Vassar’s comments as anything but complimentary. I merely disagreed with the conclusion. And I respected him enough to write a detailed response as to why I disagreed, including how I might have arrived at those conclusions given my background, in a separate diary — which is a compliment to Vassar as well. (who also went to UVA).

      As a result, Vassar, who seemed to like my post, learned something, and I learned something from Vassar, in that we have more in agreement than I originally thought.

      That’s kind of the whole point here…you know, …debate, knowledge. Oh wait, you don’t know.

      And the point your comment, other than to insult my intelligence, was……? You state my diary has no logic, but refute not a single point, instead focusing your “sarc” on my writing style, family lineage, and education.

      I don’t come here for compliments — those that matter come from my wife and kids. I come here for discourse.

      So other than a hit piece, with what exactly have you edified the readers of Red State this fine day?

  • mikerazar

    Interesting speculation guys, but not even the CBO can predict accurately ten years out, let alone centuries.

    An easier way to save the union would be to kick a few large cities to the curb. SanFran tops the list, of course. Throw in LA, Chicago, Miami, and sadly NY. I really love NY but it is just too toxic to keep all of it.

    (Note to the morons…it’s called SATIRE)

  • http://www.rightproadvisors.com erinmist

    Agree with the cities — don’t forget DC, though. ;-)

    Regarding England, I’d say there’s been about 4 or 5 “Englands” since 1066…not really the same country today.

  • janis

    As to “not the same country”, can you just imagine what the warriors who went off to the Middle East centuries ago would think about England NOW?!! For that matter, what would Churchill think about England in 2010?

    My guess is that both would be redfaced with rage and mortification.

  • E Pluribus Unum

    Your cynical view of the inevitability of the fall of all nations, the ever-changing landscape over the long view, your embrace of the notion of secession (and the threat of it) in the current climate, I am in full agreement, and if you track down my comments in all 3 pieces referenced (this, VB’s, and Hogan’s), you will find me a kindred.

    But your view of the leftist enemy here, of their impotence, and that earth-shaking clash is decades away, with that I must part and go with Vassar. They have been so close they could taste it, and they see the nation has moved out from under them, They will not willingly stand down, they are all in, and such an array of actual, prosecutable crimes has been committed, they themselves, not us, may choose Armageddon in these 180 days. The unthinkable.

    We may be able to move them off the brink, but only if we show serious muscle and willingness right now. And if they do take the plunge, then we have to be ready, 180 days from now and not 360 days, to go all in ourselves.

    You know history. Then you also know the term OBE. Logic may not prevail.

    Still, well-spoken essay, very much of which I agree with (yes, I end sentences with prepositions. I am Texan, that’s what we do). You got alot of smarts, my man.

  • qixlqatl

    always says exactly what I *try* to say, only a whole lot better (and nicer). This time it’s you ;)

  • E Pluribus Unum

    I have tapped a channel to your inner muse for my RedState thoughts. What I am doing is plagiarism!

    :)

  • qixlqatl

    Someone should write up all the great diary ideas that I have that get lost in the daily crunch and grind ;)