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Why Bob McDonnell Will Win Virginia, and What it Can Mean for the Republican Party

As a Virginian and a member of the Republican Governor’s Association, I’m glad that the Democratic primary is settled and now the campaign for Virginia governor can begin. State Senator Creigh Deeds won the primary last night, after trailing by double digits less than three weeks ago.

The stakes in this year’s Virginia gubernatorial race are the highest ever. Even more than New Jersey, the other major off-year contest, the gubernatorial elections in my backyard are predictive of trends that will play out further into the cycle. I know that many felt our best chance would be against Clinton’s money man, Terry McAuliffe, but this Virginia Republican is not concerned. This race is not going to be about who our opponent is. We will win because of what the Republican Party is, and who and what we represent.

I believe our nominee, Bob McDonnell, is a major rising star in this party, and this race will prove it. For one thing, Bob brings a number of qualities to the race that previous GOP candidates in Virginia did not have. Better still, he carries none of their flaws.

He is a young polished lawyer and an Army veteran who grew up in liberal (though much less liberal back in the day) Northern Virginia and lives with his family in conservative Virginia Beach, so he can connect with young suburban families in a way that Jerry Kilgore had trouble doing in 2005. McDonnell is a great example of the kind of candidate who doesn’t have to “choose” between sticking to his values and appealing to moderate voters.

That gives him a real advantage over Creigh Deeds, whose economic platform is more of a populist shtick targeted to the United Mine Workers than a sensible roads and schools plan for I-95 commuters. McDonnell cares about the issues Virginians care about, like transportation funding, college tuition costs, energy policy, taxes, and, of course, job creation. So Northern Virginia will be something it hasn’t been in recent elections: A battleground leaning Republican.

And Republicans will be more excited about McDonnell than the Democrats are about Deeds. It’s clear where he stands on the issues that are important to the Republicans Party, including taxes, religion and honoring our troops. Deeds, on the other hand, is going to have to activate his base and crank up the turn out better than he did last time around. In doing so, he is going have to walk the line between Prius drivers in Arlington and NASCAR fans in Bristol. He’s not an anti-gun zealot, which won’t please pastors in Hampton, and wants to soak the entrepreneurs and businesses on taxes, which won’t impress technology executives in Reston. And there should be no forgetting that Virginia is the new battle ground in big labor’s battle to expand its power. In a state that appreciates the right to work and still tilts conservative, the advantage goes to Bob.

McDonnell has also won respect on both sides of the aisle for his hard work. He’s been an energetic and eager candidate, with a great resume of accomplishment that he can actually run on. As I said on Hardball this week, governors are our best candidates and that’s a bench we must develop.

This won’t be the first time that McDonnell and Deeds have squared off in a statewide election. I still remember their 2005 race for Attorney General, where McDonnell beat Deeds by 323 votes. As someone who has been around politics and Virginia a long time, I believe McDonnell has what it takes to beat Deeds again.

In the months ahead, voters will come to see how he has been an experienced and steady hand in Richmond, and that he is the best bet to put this great Commonwealth back on the path of hard work and reform.

The national media will be watching, and the rest of the Republican Party should too.

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COMMENTS

  • RoscoeP

    When the Republican party declared what it is and who and what they represent? Unless they declared that they represent CONSERVATISM, truth, justice and the AMERICAN way, I won’t hold my breath.

  • naraht

    While there will be those who will trumpet a McDonnell win as a repudiation of Obama and every policy that he has ever proposed from Civil Unions to a two-state solution in the middle-east, I’ve got my doubts…

    These two have run against each other before in the 2005 AG race. While McDonnell won, it was by a *thin* sliver (323 votes), and neither got 50%. Even if everyone who voted four years ago and today votes for the same candidates, there are more than enough voters to make either a possible winner.

    Also, Virginia has elected two democratic governors in a row and both Senators are now democrats, Virginia is just too red to keep that string going.

    Then of course you’ve got the 30 year tradition of having the party in the White House lose…

    To me, the one that will show repudiation of the Obama policies much more clearly is New Jersey.

    • DONTREADONME

      I could be wrong here, VA got played in the last election and they get fooled everytime for that “fiscal Conservative” pro-gun BS that the Democrats have run. BTW, Webb status as a former Marine won some converts down here; however, that charm has since begun to rub off. Warner was Governor and then was given Senator so we didn’t elect some new joke who came in here claiming garbage that he is not. I just do not see a Democrat being able to ride the Bush excuse in VA this year, the advantage runs with the Republican using Obama as the lightening rod.

      Let us not foget that Obama promised to cut military contractors which NOVA has plenty of and it has already begun. A number of real angry contractors out of work at present. I am just saying.

      • Scope

        Some of the major employers in the city are Government. That may be the reason why economic troubles have not hit as hard here. I think that will change. Charlottesville is home to Northrup-Gruman, General Dynamics, a new building is going up now for the Army Corps of Engineers, and it is right next to another massive structure that is reputed to be some type of ultra classified government location, it has no known name. A few months ago General Dynamics announced a lay off at this location of 1,400 employees. The cuts may have aready started.

  • Vegas_Rick

    But is he a conservative? Which issues can we expect him to “reach across the aisle” on?

    Some people thin Charlie Crist can win the Senate seat in Florida. Whoop dee do!

  • rmullins

    He hss appel to Nrothern VA more than the rest of VA. Is he a Convervative? Hmm, I can’t say, but if this amke the VA GOP become a more powerful party like the GOP is here in Texas(The Dems haven’t won a statewide office in Years).. Anyways, Nothern Virginia is a lot Southern Maryland( I remenber the Libs a bit when I lived in Montgomery County,MD[ a child and not voting age])

  • Darin_H

    It’s the general election now, not the primary. A bit late to start that discussion.

  • its_a_right_wing_thing

    Nice choice the voters of suddenly progressive VA face. Either vote for a Yank transplant in Bob McDonnell (I remember someone here mentioning he had no “drawl” this is why….may be ‘right” on the issues but I question his conservatism.

    Creigh Deeds is at least a native of Richmond but two things are wrong with this: Richmond is politically correct symbol of the New South and another transplant haven and 2.. if Deeds were a real Southerner, he’d be a conservative Republican. My guess is he’s progressive, liberal, and PC.

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Creigh_Deeds

    McAuilffe is a Yank from Syracuse NY. What is wrong with the people of VA for almost electing these carpetbaggers? A coalition of DC retirees/NOVA transplants, and DC liberals like McAuliffe who relocate to VA when they aren’t lobbying in DC.

    I am shocked that Brian Moran (no its not pronounced moron) didn’t win.

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Brian_Moran

    After all he’s a Democrat from Natick, MA and his older brother Jim “represents” the people of the 8th district of VA. After all, this distrtict hasn’t been represented by a native Virginian since 1973 (learned that here on RS). The elder Moran is a native of Buffalo, NY.

    Does anyone else see anything wrong with this trend? VA is a tale of two states. NOVA (and Richmond) and everything else. The former is where these candidates are coming from which is not the heart of VA or the real VA.

  • Herodotus

    I think that Bob’s a conservative.

  • tarheels23

    (liberal poster)

    I think it’s a toss-up. Virginia demographics are trending blue, but the state is due for a Republican breakthrough. Also, I think McConnell will do well in the areas he absolutely must win.

    If Obama fatigue has set in by election day even a little, this is one race where that could prove decisive.

  • Vegas_Rick

    While the tone of my post would suggest otherwise, I’m really just curious. I wish the best of luck to McDonnell.

  • http://online.logcabin.org/about/ suzieQ

    It does us no good to “win” the election if it is not a win for conservatism. We need to not only win, but do so with candidates we can be proud of. And I’m not saying that McDonnell isn’t a good candidate. I’m just asking – the same as Vegas Rick – is he a conservative?

  • ocleverone

    The left is decrying him as “too conservative” and the WaPo labeled him “dogmatically conservative”.

    I am so excited that he is running!

  • http://online.logcabin.org/about/ suzieQ

    He sounds good to me!

  • Vegas_Rick
  • tarheels23

    From the perspective of the left, most folks on this side of the aisle view him much differently than they do a Crist. I think he will make this community happy as a candidate.

  • mom2oneson

    but I’ve never known a democrat or a liberal from Philly.

  • DONTREADONME

    make the call on the tendencies of the voter base in VA. The demographics trending blue is a load of BS, VA residents were suckered in the presidential election and make no mistake, there is more fomenting here then you can imagine. Make no mistake about this, NC and VA will go back Red in 2012, of course that will depend on how many more transplants NC and VA pick up by then.

    Lastly, how can someone who graduated the same year as I did possibly continue to claim he is a liberal? I grew out of that back around 1999, then again the salary I was offered versus how much was left after the withholdings was quite the push to intellectual maturity. Sorry, you asked for that shot, you had a profile claiming you were admitted lefty, and there is no such thing as moderate on the military. Lukewarm and all, you remember that right?

  • DONTREADONME

    there are some very conservative people. My uncle lives up on the Blue Route just off of the Schukyl in a neighborhood of tax attorneys, doctors, obgyns etc, that area tends to move quite solidly conservative. So being from the Philly area does not mean liberal necessarily though the overwhelming amount of liberal dependents in the city that tends to vote whatever the D’s tell them to. Sad but true, the same happens in Baltimore, DC, Wilmington DE, Alexandria, Arlington, Atlanta, Rayleigh-Durham, New York City, Boston, Hartford, Trenton, Camden, Newark, I could follow the spread of this all over the country.

  • penguin2

    Bob McDonnell is a strong social conservative, he a fine person and family man. He has served the state of Virginia admirably since he was first elected to Va. House of delegates in 1992. Served 7 terms from the 84th district, Va. Beach. Elected as state attorney general in 2005.

    He was born in PA, but grew up in Northern Va. graduating from high school in Alexandria, Va. in 1972. Bob, is the son of an career Air Force officer, and he himself served 4 years active duty and 16 in the Army Reserves. He has a lovely wife and five wonderful children. Undergrad from Notre Dame, MBA from B.U. and M.A./J.D. from Regent University here in Virginia Beach.

    I’m not active in his campaign, other than the usual party support, but it is a pleasant coincidence for my husband and myself for us to have gotten to know Bob just as a regular member of our community over the past several years. I never thought that I might be able to say someday, that not only had I met the Governor (we hope), but that I actually knew him personally.

    As a conservative, I can tell you there is no moderate or RINO about him. He is a good man, well liked and has a sense of decency and genuineness. We will be lucky to have him in Virginia.

  • penguin2

    “Right_Wing seems to be a little misleading, Bob was born in PA, but grew up in Virginia. My husband and I have known him personally here in Va. Beach before he became famous. It is kind of neat to know that little peon citizens like my spouse and myself, actually can speak about this candidate.

    Anyway, Bob and his family are good people., personally and professionally.

  • DONTREADONME
  • mom2oneson
  • Vegas_Rick
  • ocleverone

    Nice job!

  • tarheels23

    Virginia has been turning blue in more ways than the 2008 presidential election alone. It is becoming the Mid-Atlantic, which means a greater DC and Maryland influence and less power to Lynchburg and Roanoke.

    I agree with you NC; I’ll be surprised if we go blue again in 2012, and chances are Burr will win a close election in 2010. But there was a report this week that Raleigh/Durham is growing at an extremely fast pace, so hopefully (from my lefty perspective) we’ll continue along as a battleground state in the future.

    As for my political orientation, I’m a liberal largely for social reasons but also for economic reasons as well. I’m concerned about the increased gap between the rich and poor, and I’d like to see that change.

    My thought is that America must make sure it has the most potent and able military, but we need to be more judicious about how we exercise our might. (I never supported Iraq, for example.) You may not call that moderate, but my lefty friends are far more anti-military than me.

  • DONTREADONME

    glad that I could teach you what goes on here in VA. You are one smart fellow down there in NC to figure out what goes on here in VA.

    BTW, remember there are some people around here who are better evaluators of the military policy and the state of political affairs in VA, then again you are a liberal, I would’nt expect you to get it. Yes, I am that confident.

  • DONTREADONME

    I see a definite pattern here, looks like VA and NC bit off a little more that they could chew with those wonderful Democrats. Last I checked NOVA or the blue lagoon is an utter money hole for the state of VA and my suspicion is that the cities of NC are the gutter for all the money in NC.

    All those tech jobs in NC will be going the way of the dodo when the military budget cuts and with the automotive industry bankruptcy. I am glad I stayed here in VA because at the immediate future looks OK here, NC, not so much.

    I will not be surprised when Ms. Purdue is sent packing from the capital. Living high on the hog seems to be a RINO R and Blue Dog and liberal Democrat problem, (BTW Rino Rs, D’s and liberal Ds make a majority in the V legislature, could explain our problem)

    You also can make up as much garbage about moderate on the military as you want, but leave that to the proffessional who are paid to make that determination, you keep floating along in NC with that liberal logic that for some reason you could not shake off when you reached the age of 28. I fear the grey matter in your brain has not fully materialized. 1 step processes does not intelligence make.

    Having fun yet?

  • tarheels23

    The state of the country is going to have a huge downstream effect on all 2010 races, so Virginia’s internal dynamics will be subject to national mood just like everywhere else.

    Like I said initially, this is a race the ‘Pubs can win. You seem not to believe that they could lose, but IMO you are dismissing a strong recent trend in favor of the left in VA.

    But we’ll see!

  • DONTREADONME

    in November, darn it, I just need to account for the fact that much could change in the next 5 months, Makaka anyone? All, Makaka had to do was switch 6000 votes and the election was won by Webb for Senator. Yup, the GOP does have a history of blowing it, wish I did not have to write this disclaimer, but its true they know how to choke just like the Capitals.

  • Scope

    It was interesting to see Deeds campaign on supporting drilling off VA coasts, which is against Obamas/Liberals energy policy. I understand he was a moderate Democrat at one time, but has moved far to the left with his views and ideas. Drilling is one of McDonnell’s greatest positions, and Deeds had to pander, The Democrats who support Deeds have never looked up the word pander, and will once again be fooled if they vote for him, just as they were fooled into voting for Nobama.

    The only negative I have seen against McDonnell has been from some Liberatarians who fault him for supporting the One Gun A Month law here in the Commonwealth. He is not perfect enough for them.

  • pistolpetestoys

    because we have all seen what democrats can do to steal close elections.With the exception of Florida 2000,they have used the same tactics to get away with it time and again.Don’t forget the Democrats plan to skew the census using ACORN in such a way that they will become a permanent majority.

  • tarheels23

    First, I didn’t vote for Bev Perdue, just as I never voted for crook Mike Easley. Truthfully, NC needs a break from Dem control at the state level. Not the answer you expected to hear, was it?

    In fact, NC would have taken steps toward becoming more nationally blue more quickly had the *Republican* candidate for Gov won last year, because he would have pushed for metro-friendly light rail.

    However, you are very, very wrong in your diagnosis of NC’s long-term prospects. The problem we are having now isn’t lack of growth; it’s how to properly manage that growth.

    I don’t understand your meaning in that last graph, which probably affirms your point about the grey matter not materializing yet. Ha.

  • Mike gamecock DeVine

    Charlotte is not big enough for light rail and the Mayor and Council ignored a referendum that voted down light rail.

    More lanes are needed in Charlotte which gets treated like a red-headed step-child by Raleigh and the Triangle that have the luxury lanes.

    Yes, NC needs relief from the Dem Party, but as the guv race shows, when presented with a faux repub, they choose the real thing, just like the national electorate.

  • 6eorge Jetson

    C’mon, Richard

  • tarheels23

    It’s been discussed here for years and years, but they can’t get it organized and funded. And given the growth we’ve had and are expected to have in short order, it will become even more imperative to develop functional mass transportation.

    I don’t spend enough time in Charlotte to have strong opinions about much that goes on there, but I have observed in the past that 77-S heading into the city is not what one would expect in terms of road quality

  • Mike gamecock DeVine

    The interchanges cause semi flips and there aren’t enough lanes and the I-485 loop still is not completed!

    But I suspect RTP will find upon completion of any light rail system that it never pays for itself and will relieve traffic congestion barely a whit, no matter what “studies” show.

  • its_a_right_wing_thing

    Thanks

  • its_a_right_wing_thing

    I see manage under my profile but nothing to indicate I can delete past comments made or useless threads like this one asking about the widget I just added?

    Thanks

  • 6eorge Jetson

    Only the site moderators can edit comment posts, and they only do that for very offensive posts.

    It’s a good feature. You can’t go back and “rewrite” history. If you make a statement, it’s “on the record”.

    A minor consequence is that typos are frozen in time. But we focus on substance over style here.

    Oh, and you probably want to limit the height of your widget & sig.

  • its_a_right_wing_thing

    Do you know how to add this widget to an email signature? I can’t figure that out yet. Maybe you can’t. I’m not that familiar with them.