I came to know Sarah and Todd Palin during 2008 in my role as Finance Chair for the McCain campaign. I felt she performed extremely well under some pretty tough circumstances for anyone running with an “R” by their name. Additionally, I believe Sarah Palin was largely responsible for our lead in the polls in early September. Sure, the Couric interview wasn’t her finest performance – as Sarah herself admits publicly, but I’ve been around the block for a long time and its been years since I’ve seen a national candidate burst on the scene and electrify a party and in some cases a nation as she did last Fall.

As the election came to a close, leaks emerged from our campaign unfairly criticizing Sarah, some in a highly personal way. These leaks were not only false but offensive, and lacking in chivalry and loyalty. Most of all, they reflected poorly on the man we all served, John McCain.

John reinforced my instincts to defend and befriend a fine person who was being unfairly attacked when he called me Friday, November 6, to thank me for my role in the campaign. I was at campaign headquarters counseling our able young finance team on finding jobs and asked John to talk to the group. He thanked them but also commented on how much he disliked the criticisms of Sarah making the rounds in the media.

The Sarah Palin of these criticisms did not, and does not, reflect the person I know. I invited her to be my guest at the Alfalfa Club dinner in late January, and to my delight she accepted. Sarah was a total hit at the dinner, and it was gratifying to see the high regard shown to her by many of Washington’s leading lights. Over the coming months, we stayed in touch, and we remained friends. It has been a pleasure telling people about the real Sarah Palin – a first rate Governor; a gracious, genuine and down to earth woman; and a caring and loving mother, wife, and grandmother.

Now to 2012 – will Sarah run? I have no earthly idea. She doesn’t seem to be making any preparations and is focused on the 2010 runs, but it is smart for her to keep her options open. Her charisma and plain speaking conservative and populist approach have great appeal. That said, if this really were a campaign in waiting, I would think her book release would be in November 2010, vs. November 2009, but what do I know about these things? The bottom line is that we as a party have an embarrassment of riches with a number of extremely capable and well-qualified potential candidates. Mitt Romney has excelled in everything he has done from private equity to the Olympics to governing; and he has huge name recognition and a lot of goodwill built up in the party after coming so close to capturing the nomination in 2008. Tim Pawlenty has an extremely effective record as a two term Governor, he has assembled a first rate team for his political action committee, and he has an appealing, fresh faced demeanor. If he decided to make a run, Governor Haley Barbour would be incredibly formidable. His role as party chair in 1993 when Republicans took back the House and Senate, his proven leadership in the aftermath of Hurricane Katrina, and his effectiveness as chair of the Republican Governor’s Association all evidence his capacity. Governor Mitch Daniels could also be a first tier contender should he decide to run and of course former Governor Mike Huckabee would be in a leading position should he give up his successful television career and run for President.

Please note, all of these contenders, including Sarah Palin, are sitting or former Governors. My view is that the executive experience and decision making authority is important preparation for a successful President. The Presidency, after all, is not just about setting tone and true leadership is not proven by delivering a flawless speech or coining a campaign rally cry. Leadership is tough stuff and these are dangerous and troubled times. All of these potential candidates have a proven record of making tough decisions under duress and achieving success in leading their states. Impossible to say who will run, but it’s great to have so many excellent choices.

Yesterday, I told The Politico about Bob McDonnell’s victory in Virginia, “I don’t think it’s so much a referendum on Obama’s policies as it is a reflection on us having a really, really good candidate.” I wanted to expand on this.

First of all, back in May, I said about Bob McDonnell:

No one outside of Virginia knows him yet, but he’s the best GOP candidate for governor in many years. He is also able to build a center-right majority. As such, he will win the 2009 race, and this will embolden others to run and start the way back for the GOP. If you have any doubts, look back at 1993 when after a 1992 drubbing for the GOP, the election of Allen and Whitman paved the way for takeover of Congress in 1994. Bob’s victory will propel him to become one of the party’s biggest new stars.

Not only did Bob win, but he won with the largest majority that any Republican has achieved in the history of Virginia. He led the party to pick up five seats in the House of Delegates. And Republicans swept the constitutional offices for only the second time in the history of the state. According to exit polls, Bob won every age group, and he won independents 2-1.

How did McDonnell do this? The exit polls made it clear what the people of Virginia were concerned about: jobs.  Eighty-five percent of the electorate was “worried about economic conditions” and 53% were very worried. Bob carried these 63%-36% and 77%-23% respectively.

In the end, the people of Virginia had a serious concern – the economy, which nearly everyone is worried about – and McDonnell connected this concern to his policy prescriptions. Reviewing his website shows some of the most detailed policy proposals I have ever seen in a non-presidential campaign.

At the same time, he was attacked viciously and unfairly for a paper that he wrote in graduate school. But Bob knew that the people of Virginia weren’t interested in divisive social politics. Instead he kept discipline and kept the focus on what the people wanted to hear about, not what his opponent wanted him to talk about.

These are signs of a very talented leader: determination, discipline, policy expertise, awareness of the voters’ desires and needs, and an ability to connect with them.

I have enjoyed the recent top ten lists for Republican leaders, Senate races, and the like published by smart observers like Chris Cillizza of the Washington Post and have occasionally ventured forth my own. Most of us who pay any attention to politics have a pretty good sense of the most influential Republican leaders today; and they include impressive people such as Romney, Pawlenty, Barbour, McConnell, Boehner, Gingrich, Palin, and others.

Less visible, however, and in some ways more intriguing to me are identifying those less visible figures who will emerge over the next five to ten years as leaders in the House, Senate, state capitols, and Presidential primaries. Here is my crack at the top ten, most under 50 and a few just past that age.

There are undoubtedly others that should be included, but whom I haven’t had the opportunity to meet, and thus haven’t assessed.  Here are the ones I have:

1. Bob McDonnell. I predicted many months ago that Bob would be the next Governor of Virginia and that prediction looks very good now. For that reason he is included near the top of the most influential Republicans for the present as well as the future. He has been an enormously effective candidate and I believe will be elected next week. While he will be a great Governor for my home state, his national influence will soar as the first symbol of a Republican comeback and as an example of how to run a model and winning campaign.
2. Mark Kirk. Mark is the moderate, progressive, and effective young Congressman from Illinois who should be elected to Obama’s old Senate seat in November 2010. Illinois has been a blue state for a number of years and has a pronounced registration advantage in favor of Democrats. Because he will capture the Obama seat in a blue state, and because his voice is both persuasive and moderate, he will emerge as an influential consensus builder in the U.S. Senate.
3. Eric Cantor. As the #2 Republican in the House and a master of policy, Eric has been a strong and sensible voice for the center-right arguments that represent the Republican Party and the majority of Americans. He will have an increasingly important role in shaping the Republican agenda for many years.
4. Scott Walker. The 41 year old Milwaukee County Executive has proven he knows how to contain costs, balance budgets, and win elections. In 2008, he won re-election with 59%, in a county Obama won by more than 60%. I believe he will be elected Governor of Wisconsin in November 2010 and represent the new wave of conservative leadership that knows how to bring needed services to the people by providing incentives and ingenuity vs. big spending.
5. Paul Ryan. Another young man from Wisconsin, who at 39 is ranking Republican on the House Budget Committee. He has mastery of budgeting and economic issues and learned his trade at the foot of the late Jack Kemp, perhaps the most influential Republican of our era who never became President. Paul is smart, charismatic, and dedicated and can hold any office he sets his mind to.
6. Rob Portman. Rob has a tough challenge on winning the Ohio Senate race as the State has been tilting blue lately. However, he’s just too good to fail. As a former Director of the U.S. Office of Management and Budget and Special Trade Representative, he has a terrific background to blend with his intellect and charm. He will immediately emerge as a leading voice in the Senate and in the future will be on everyone’s list for the big one or number two.
7. Bobby Jindal. Bobby has proven himself at everything he has done, consistently taking on and meeting great challenges. He is developing into an articulate and charismatic leader whose future holds no bounds. He is a fine Governor for Louisiana and will continue to be a major policy voice in the Republican Party.
8. Meg Whitman. Meg has a long road ahead to first win the primary in California and then defeat Jerry Brown to become Governor. Then, of course, she will have the tough challenge of fixing California. However, she is enormously talented and competent, and I believe she will win. If so, she will vault to number one overall, as the most influential and sought after leader in the Republican Party.
9. Kelly Ayotte. The young and proven Attorney General of New Hampshire is poised to win this Senate seat next year. She has the friendly and reasonable comportment of an Olympia Snowe or Susan Collins but is more center right in her philosophy and thus better positioned for future leadership.
10. Chris Christie. I am hopeful Chris will be elected Governor of New Jersey next week. However, his victory will be more a referendum on Jon Corzines’s out of control spending, high taxes and ineffective governance, all awash in a sea of corruption in the NJ Democrat Party. Nevertheless, a victory in this blue state will give Chris a commanding platform.

There are three others who should be on the list, but I’m not sure where or how to place them:

• Sarah Palin. Charismatic, effective, and beloved by so many in the Republican Party. Since I know her reasonably well and like her a lot, people always ask me about her future plans. The answer is I have no idea, and my sense is she hasn’t ruled anything out and is truly undecided. Maybe her book next month will provide some clues.
• Marco Rubio. We desperately need in our own party a young Hispanic leader. We cannot again be a majority party without better understanding and appealing to minorities, especially Hispanics. As a former speaker of the House in Florida, Mark is an attractive and charismatic, conservative voice. The problem is he has nowhere to go right now. He is unlikely to defeat Charlie Crist in the Florida primary for the U.S. Senate but could be poised to win the subsequent Senate contest against Bill Nelson.
• Jon Huntsman, Jr. Jon has gone far away and so is out of mind. However, he was an effective deputy special trade representative, and effective Ambassador to Singapore, and a super Governor of Utah. Plus, he has the charm, dedication, financial resources, and great family to ensure he will be back and be a powerful player on the national stage.

There you have it–please let me know your reactions to these names and help me evolve my thinking.

“He’s had the good judgment to rely on our distinguished generals and not to withdraw prematurely from Iraq. The build-up in Afghanistan is badly needed, but probably not enough.” Also, in that time frame he stated that Afghanistan was a war of necessity.

I would not rate his judgment so highly today.

While the President took a commendable approach to Afghanistan at the outset, his uncertain response to Gen. McChrystal’s request for additional troops is troubling. Gen. McChrystal has made it very clear that success in Afghanistan depends on a significant increase in forces, and yet the New York Times reports that the White House is divided against itself on this very issue.

Reportedly, the President is considering alternatives, among these an option raised by Joe Biden to withdraw from the country and concentrate on striking Taliban targets from the air only. Let us not forget that this is not far off John Murtha’s plan for Iraq, which the President supported as senator. Further adding to the judgment question, then Sen. Obama opposed President Bush’s successful surge policy in Iraq while Sen. McCain strongly supported it.

The President seems to be moving in questionable direction in other areas of foreign policy as well, including his decision to block a U.S. missile shield base in the Czech Republic and Poland, appeasing the undemocratic leadership in Russia. That this comes at the same time new revelations about Iran’s very serious nuclear program raise ever more concern.

The President’s decision to give Attorney General Eric Holder a free hand to pursue criminal investigations against CIA and other U.S. personnel who dealt with terrorists and other highly dangerous detainees is one more mistake in the making. His own CIA Director as well as seven former CIA directors serving under both Republican and Democrat administrations have publicly opposed this decision, and yet the President allows the investigation to proceed despite his earlier statements against such a move. Has it occurred to him that these people deserve our heartfelt gratitude for protecting us from another terror attack these past eight years?

My sense is that these decisions are driven in part by a Democratic base that is divided about what to do in Afghanistan, but adamant about holding the Bush administration responsible for Abu Ghraib and anything else they can. The same goes for the trade war with China. American car companies and tire manufacturers did not want it, but the United Auto Workers did. Labor is still a powerful force in Democrat circles, even if only there. Why else create these international headaches and penalize auto companies at such a dangerous time? The President’s poll numbers have been falling as his health care plans have proved unpopular, and he is battening down the hatches ahead of a midterm election that could be very bad for his party. I fear President Obama is rejecting his sounder judgment in favor of domestic political considerations.

Perhaps you remember, last summer Sen. Barack Obama suggesting that his lack of executive experience was not a matter for concern in foreign policy because, he said, his judgment was much better than that of his opponents. In fact, he used both words in an interview with ABC News during the primary campaign. Specifically, the future President said: “One thing I’m very confident about is my judgment in foreign policy. … The notion that somehow from Washington you get this vast foreign policy experience is illusory.”

It was apparent to those of us who supported John McCain that Obama had no choice but to downplay the value of foreign policy experience, where no one doubted that Sen. McCain had the overwhelming advantage and where Sen. Obama simply elevated the judgment argument and asserted that his judgment was the better. To her credit, Hillary Clinton tried to make this very point in her “3 am call” ad. He guessed correctly that the mainstream media would not dwell greatly on whether this was actually true. If they had, they would realize that this was a question they could not answer, because Obama had very little experience where he could demonstrate it.

Those of us who questioned whether Senator Obama was ready to be President Obama are finding that our concerns were warranted. Putting the U.S. back on the right track will take an enormous effort. Hopefully the President will start showing some of that judgment he’s told us about. If he doesn’t, independents will continue to desert him, and the American people may well decide he does not deserve a second term.

In my post earlier this week, I discussed the meeting of the RGA’s Executive Roundtable and visit to Aspen Institute on August 3-4. I’ll continue here.

On August 7 and 8, I was honored to attend and speak at the Republican Governor’s Association 2010 Candidate Forum in Sun Valley, Idaho.  It was essentially a training forum for gubernatorial candidates.  More than 25 candidates attended, and speakers and panelists included Newt Gingrich, Governors Haley Barbour, Tim Pawlenty, Sonny Perdue, Jeb Bush, Linda Lingle, John Engler, and myself (not a governor, of course).  Idaho Governor Butch Otter, who also spoke, was our gracious host.

In my many years in politics, this was the best-organized and most professional political and policy event I have ever attended. The very subject matter –- focusing on a positive center-right agenda that would truly address the problems of the states and help people and communities –- was extraordinarily inspiring.

Newt pretty well laid out the themes of the conference in his opening night discussion about what our current and upcoming candidates need to do:

1. Tell voters what you are for, why you are for it, and how it helps people and communities.
2. Remember that as a candidate and governor, you are the leader of the state and need to be visionary and is a value setter.
3. As governor (and as a candidate) recruit top talent to fill important positions – not just those people you know.
4. Keep focus on the truly important vs. the urgent: the urgent too often overtakes the important, to the detriment of key goals of government.

Newt, Barbour, Engler, Bush, Perdue, and Lingle followed with superb presentations and discussions, as reported in the Wall Street Journal, “focused on building campaigns based on fiscal conservatism, effective governance and how to answer Democrat initiatives on health care; as well as bailouts of Wall Street and the auto industry.”

Perhaps most inspiring was the quality and excellence of the candidates.  All were impressive and gave me great confidence in Republican prospects in the 37 gubernatorial races coming up in 2010.  To mention a few in key states:

• Scott Walker is the 41-year-old three-term County Executive for Milwaukee County, and he has illustrated what it takes to win in a blue county, and a media market that contains 42% of all Wisconsin voters.  He has governed from the center and cut county government debt by 10%, reduced county workforce by over 20%, authorized eight budgets without increasing the property tax, and managed a small surplus despite the falling economy in 2008.  He won re-election in 2008 with 59% of the vote in a county where Obama received 67% of the vote in 2008.
• Mary Fallin, a member of Congress who is our candidate in Oklahoma and whose consistent center-right, forward looking agenda will make her Oklahoma’s next Governor.
• Bill McCollum, former Congressman and current Attorney General of Florida has a record of excellence in both his former and current post.  The voters of Florida seem to agree – witness his victory as Attorney General, and his lead in the polls.
• Charlie Baker, who has been a highly successful health care executive with prior experience in state government, is our candidate in Massachusetts.  I believe he will follow in the footsteps of Bill Weld and Mitt Romney and become the next red governor in this bluest of blue states.

There were many other interesting and excellent candidates, but let me stop here. There will be much time to discuss them, and I look forward to writing more soon. This event and the whole week of August 3 to 8 increased my enthusiasm for supporting our gubernatorial candidates in 2009 and 2010, and reinforced my conviction that these are the men and women who will lead us back to a majority party. ]]>

In my post earlier this week, I discussed the meeting of the RGA’s Executive Roundtable and visit to Aspen Institute on August 3-4. I’ll continue here.

On August 7 and 8, I was honored to attend and speak at the Republican Governor’s Association 2010 Candidate Forum in Sun Valley, Idaho.  It was essentially a training forum for gubernatorial candidates.  More than 25 candidates attended, and speakers and panelists included Newt Gingrich, Governors Haley Barbour, Tim Pawlenty, Sonny Perdue, Jeb Bush, Linda Lingle, John Engler, and myself (not a governor, of course).  Idaho Governor Butch Otter, who also spoke, was our gracious host.

In my many years in politics, this was the best-organized and most professional political and policy event I have ever attended. The very subject matter –- focusing on a positive center-right agenda that would truly address the problems of the states and help people and communities –- was extraordinarily inspiring.

Newt pretty well laid out the themes of the conference in his opening night discussion about what our current and upcoming candidates need to do:

1. Tell voters what you are for, why you are for it, and how it helps people and communities.
2. Remember that as a candidate and governor, you are the leader of the state and need to be visionary and is a value setter.
3. As governor (and as a candidate) recruit top talent to fill important positions – not just those people you know.
4. Keep focus on the truly important vs. the urgent: the urgent too often overtakes the important, to the detriment of key goals of government.

Newt, Barbour, Engler, Bush, Perdue, and Lingle followed with superb presentations and discussions, as reported in the Wall Street Journal, “focused on building campaigns based on fiscal conservatism, effective governance and how to answer Democrat initiatives on health care; as well as bailouts of Wall Street and the auto industry.”

Perhaps most inspiring was the quality and excellence of the candidates.  All were impressive and gave me great confidence in Republican prospects in the 37 gubernatorial races coming up in 2010.  To mention a few in key states:

• Scott Walker is the 41-year-old three-term County Executive for Milwaukee County, and he has illustrated what it takes to win in a blue county, and a media market that contains 42% of all Wisconsin voters.  He has governed from the center and cut county government debt by 10%, reduced county workforce by over 20%, authorized eight budgets without increasing the property tax, and managed a small surplus despite the falling economy in 2008.  He won re-election in 2008 with 59% of the vote in a county where Obama received 67% of the vote in 2008.
• Mary Fallin, a member of Congress who is our candidate in Oklahoma and whose consistent center-right, forward looking agenda will make her Oklahoma’s next Governor.
• Bill McCollum, former Congressman and current Attorney General of Florida has a record of excellence in both his former and current post.  The voters of Florida seem to agree – witness his victory as Attorney General, and his lead in the polls.
• Charlie Baker, who has been a highly successful health care executive with prior experience in state government, is our candidate in Massachusetts.  I believe he will follow in the footsteps of Bill Weld and Mitt Romney and become the next red governor in this bluest of blue states.

There were many other interesting and excellent candidates, but let me stop here. There will be much time to discuss them, and I look forward to writing more soon. This event and the whole week of August 3 to 8 increased my enthusiasm for supporting our gubernatorial candidates in 2009 and 2010, and reinforced my conviction that these are the men and women who will lead us back to a majority party. ]]> http://www.redstate.com/fredmalek/2009/08/28/gop-rising-tide-09-part-ii-candidates-to-watch-in-10/feed/ http://www.redstate.com/fredmalek/2009/08/25/gop-rising-tide-09-it-came-from-the-states/ http://www.redstate.com/fredmalek/2009/08/25/gop-rising-tide-09-it-came-from-the-states/#comments Tue, 25 Aug 2009 16:00:29 +0000 Fred Malek (Profile) http://www.redstate.com/fredmalek/?p=46

I have written before of the paramount importance of governors in providing leadership to the Republican Party and to our country. One my joys this year has been to work closely with Governors Haley Barbour and Tim Pawlenty in my role as Chairman of the Republican Governor’s Association Executive Roundtable.

My view is that we are poised to win the two gubernatorial races this year with Bob McDonnell capturing Virginia and Chris Christie becoming governor of New Jersey.  Yes, there is a lot of time between now and Election Day, but I feel good about both of these key races.  Just as in 1993, with victories for George Allen and Christie Todd Whitman in these states, this will mark a turning point for the Republicans’ march back to a majority center-right party.

Keep in mind, the quality of candidates really matters, and over 50% of newly elected members of Congress and the Senate in 1994 made the decision to run after being emboldened by the Allen and Whitman wins.

Four days during early August reaffirmed my conviction that the revival of the Republican Party will be led by our governors and gubernatorial candidates. In this post, I will address the first of two separate events.

On August 3 and 4, Governors Barbour, Pawlenty, and Rick Perry along with a strong group of Roundtable members attended the annual Aspen Institute conference.  It was an invigorating two days, and we were all particularly impressed by the forward-looking, problem-solving approach of the governors.  We started with Haley speaking on energy to a bipartisan audience at the Aspen Institute.  He was strong, articulate, balanced, and his speech was well-received.  That evening, we had a buffet reception at our home, highlighted by insightful remarks from Tim Pawlenty.

The next day we had panel discussions with Haley and former governor and HHS Secretary Mike Leavitt leading health care and Gov. Perry leading the discussion on reviewing our economy and creating jobs. Rick also spoke that night at a dinner hosted by Roundtable members Rick and Erica Horvitz, who hosted a wonderful Western dinner at their beautiful Wildcat Ranch.

It was an opportunity to review how far we have come this cycle. As an organization, we have recruited over 225 top executives, entrepreneurs, and other people of great merit who contribute $25,000 per year to the RGA and attend a series of policy oriented sessions with our governors.  This means that over the two year election cycle leading to 2010, the RGA has another $11million to pump into key races, and it is growing.

This entire event reminded me why I love politics.  No, it didn’t have the grassroots spontaneity of the incredibly impactful Tea Party movement, but  it was a committed group of people enjoying in deeply substantive discussions of the key problems facing our country, enjoying a camaraderie in a setting of environmental beauty, and getting to know our political leaders in an up close and personal way.

In my next post, I’ll talk about our Candidate Forum the following weekend.

I continue to enjoy Chris Cillizza’s interesting top 10 list of most influential in the Republican Party. While the world, needless to say, is not waiting for my utterances on the same topic, I can’t resist taking a crack at it.

My list has slightly different criteria than my previous list and focuses on the near term for the top five and then the longer term for the next five. The reason is this: President Obama is pressing two legislative initiatives that are the most dangerous, costly, and ineffective as anything seen in recent history – an overhaul of the health care system and a cap-and-trade bill. Despite President Obama’s eloquence, the public seems to get it, and public opinion is turning against these policies. If they can be defeated in their present form in Congress, it will represent a victory for mainstream America, mark the end of the Obama honeymoon, and launch the resurgence of the Republican Party.

Here is my list of the top 10 players making an impact for our party:

1. Mitch McConnell - He has the task of holding together the forty Republican Senators, no small task. If he remains successful with this charge, it is extremely unlikely the health care or cap-and-trade bills will be enacted.
2. John Boehner - He has a simple task in the House and so far has been enormously effective in binding the GOP together, not by partisan political force, but by sensible articulations and unity around a set of policy beliefs, and just enough comedic timing to keep things light. He is serious, but not self-serious.
3. Doug Elmendorf - True, he’s not a Republican but the head of a Congressional Budget Office, appointed by Democrat leadership. Thank goodness he is a man of character and courage, for it is he who put a dagger in the health care plan with an accurate assessment of its true costs and deficit impact. This confirmed what Republican leaders have been saying and gave encouragement to the Blue Dog Democrats who have been highly skeptical.
4. Bob McDonnell…
5. …and Chris Christie - We have two statewide elections in a little more than three months. McDonnell is the best candidate Virginia has had in a generation and leads his opponent by 3-5 points. He is on the right side of the issues on health care, energy, and deficit spending. He will win. Christie is an outstanding candidate and leads Corzine by some twelve points currently. The same fears about taxing and spending that dominate the national scene have run Corzines’s approval in the ground, based on New Jersey’s spending and huge deficits. Both McDonnell and Christie are on the path to victory, aided in part by increasing public skepticism of President Obama’s programs and the enormous deficits and mounting debt that results. Now, one could ask: Are defeats of the health care and cap-and-trade bills combined with victories on both Virginia and New Jersey the equivalent of a straight flush for Republicans? I believe the two are related and have a fairly good probability. If so, the Republican resurgence will not only have begun but be in full swing, just as was experienced in 1993 with the victories of George Allen in Virginia and Christie Todd Whitman in New Jersey.
6. Mitt Romney - Now I turn to the future. Romney continues to do all the right things campaigning for Republican candidates and raising large amounts for candidates and his own well run PAC. If the current recession continues, President Obama will have to assume responsibility – he may start by looking at his poorly-designed “stimulus” plan – then perhaps nobody will be better positioned than Mitt. His leadership experience and ability were not quite enough to overcome doubts in 2008, but now that he has shown he can run as confident a campaign as the current president’s, he will definitely get a strong second look as the 2012 race takes shape.
7. Tim Pawlenty - Pawlenty is positioned to take on a leadership role among Republican Governors, is receiving top marks on his appearances around the country, and will soon be regarded as a top contender for 2012. He is showing bold leadership, even after announcing he will not run for re-election, with his promise to close Minnesota’s $2.7 billion deficit without resorting to tax increases. This means he is taking an axe to the state’s budget himself above the predictable objections of the Minnesota DFL. Too few Republicans these days are pro-active about fiscal conservatism, and those in Congress especially should pay attention.
8. Haley Barbour - He is undoubtly the best political strategist in the Republican Party and is just as strong on policy. He will be a dynamic force as Chair of the Republican Governor’s Association and will be enormously helpful to both McDonnell and Christie. Will he or won’t he in 2012 is a guessing game we’ll be playing well into the cycle.
9. Charlie Crist, Mark Kirk, and hopefully Mike Castle - And other moderate candidates. My fellow conservatives may not like this one, but hear me out: Unless our party can embrace a big tent policy that welcomes moderates like my friend Colin Powell, we will not win elections. In liberal-dominated Illinois, Delaware and increasingly purple Florida, we need to be open to supporting officials who can win and will support our issues most of the time, instead of electing more Democrats who will oppose us nearly all of the time. These three plus our great conservative candidates in states like New Hampshire, Ohio, and Missouri give me great hope that we can remain a party in which conservatives and moderates can not only coexist, but flourish.
10. Paul Ryan - As ranking minority on the House Budget Committee, his voice will continue to be heard and become more influential. And it is a clear and compelling voice. I believe Ryan could become Governor of Wisconsin if he chose to run, but he is that unusual politician who is not consumed by ambition but devoted to his constituents and his pivotal role to Congress. Stay tuned- this is a man to watch.

I have omitted my friend, Sarah Palin, as there is no clarity on her future plans. Also absent are strong and influential leaders like Eric Cantor, John McCain, and John Cornyn. We should continue to watch them, and also let’s be alert for the next step of others not now in the spotlight like Bobby Jindal and Norm Coleman. All are fine Republicans with much to bring to the table, even if not in a national campaign (or not yet). I am always keeping my ear to the ground, so please suggest others in the comments.

The most recent and grossly unfair attack came from Vanity Fair magazine. The writer clearly had an unshakable point of view from the start and talked only to those who would criticize. For example, he personally asked me at event preceding the White House Correspondents Dinner if I would talk to him about Governor Palin. I agreed. He didn’t call. He didn’t email. He never once tried to get my take. I also know he never contacted campaign manager Rick Davis, or John McCain.

I have known many political leaders over four decades including all Republican presidents and VPs. I have come to know Sarah Palin over the past year and can state unequivocally that she is smart, curious, hard working, charming, and effective. She also has something her detractors clearly lack – a sense of honor and loyalty.

I know this is petty, but it reminds me of the 2004 presidential election where it was commonplace and accepted in much of the mainstream media to call President Bush stupid and Senator Kerry smart and insightful. At the end of the day, when Senator Kerry finally released his college transcripts, wouldn’t you know: he did quite a bit worse than President Bush.

I have seen Sarah up close with leading heavyweights, and have seen her hold her own and then some. At the dinner at my home referenced in the article, she engaged comfortably and deeply with people ranging from Alan Greenspan to Madeleine Albright to Mitch McConnell. She asked for a foreign policy discussion on her June 7 trip to Washington, and I saw her engage in an informed and spirited manner with Frank Carlucci.

Governor Palin has many admirers and defenders out there who will not allow her to be branded by jealous rivals with their own agenda and the elitists in the national media. I am not sure who the unnamed Vanity Fair sources are, but without question they lack chivalry and have acted in a craven manner. They also lack the facts. I am ashamed of my former campaign colleagues, whoever they are.

The stakes in this year’s Virginia gubernatorial race are the highest ever. Even more than New Jersey, the other major off-year contest, the gubernatorial elections in my backyard are predictive of trends that will play out further into the cycle. I know that many felt our best chance would be against Clinton’s money man, Terry McAuliffe, but this Virginia Republican is not concerned. This race is not going to be about who our opponent is. We will win because of what the Republican Party is, and who and what we represent.

I believe our nominee, Bob McDonnell, is a major rising star in this party, and this race will prove it. For one thing, Bob brings a number of qualities to the race that previous GOP candidates in Virginia did not have. Better still, he carries none of their flaws.

He is a young polished lawyer and an Army veteran who grew up in liberal (though much less liberal back in the day) Northern Virginia and lives with his family in conservative Virginia Beach, so he can connect with young suburban families in a way that Jerry Kilgore had trouble doing in 2005. McDonnell is a great example of the kind of candidate who doesn’t have to “choose” between sticking to his values and appealing to moderate voters.

That gives him a real advantage over Creigh Deeds, whose economic platform is more of a populist shtick targeted to the United Mine Workers than a sensible roads and schools plan for I-95 commuters. McDonnell cares about the issues Virginians care about, like transportation funding, college tuition costs, energy policy, taxes, and, of course, job creation. So Northern Virginia will be something it hasn’t been in recent elections: A battleground leaning Republican.

And Republicans will be more excited about McDonnell than the Democrats are about Deeds. It’s clear where he stands on the issues that are important to the Republicans Party, including taxes, religion and honoring our troops. Deeds, on the other hand, is going to have to activate his base and crank up the turn out better than he did last time around. In doing so, he is going have to walk the line between Prius drivers in Arlington and NASCAR fans in Bristol. He’s not an anti-gun zealot, which won’t please pastors in Hampton, and wants to soak the entrepreneurs and businesses on taxes, which won’t impress technology executives in Reston. And there should be no forgetting that Virginia is the new battle ground in big labor’s battle to expand its power. In a state that appreciates the right to work and still tilts conservative, the advantage goes to Bob.

McDonnell has also won respect on both sides of the aisle for his hard work. He’s been an energetic and eager candidate, with a great resume of accomplishment that he can actually run on. As I said on Hardball this week, governors are our best candidates and that’s a bench we must develop.

This won’t be the first time that McDonnell and Deeds have squared off in a statewide election. I still remember their 2005 race for Attorney General, where McDonnell beat Deeds by 323 votes. As someone who has been around politics and Virginia a long time, I believe McDonnell has what it takes to beat Deeds again.

In the months ahead, voters will come to see how he has been an experienced and steady hand in Richmond, and that he is the best bet to put this great Commonwealth back on the path of hard work and reform.

The national media will be watching, and the rest of the Republican Party should too.

The subject of the environment is a difficult one for conservatives. The Left has owned the discussion for years, always pitching the issue in the direst terms, decade after decade. When we have tried to point out reasonable objections to this extremist rhetoric, such as that there is less than a scientific consensus about climate change, we have been called “deniers” or worse.

This is doubly unfair because there are few things more conservative than conservation. There can be no doubt that being good stewards of our natural resources is necessary for human sustainability and survival. Unfortunately, in the public’s mind the Left has a monopoly on setting wise environmental policy. What we understand, as the Left seems unwilling to acknowledge, is that environmental and economic policies are often very closely associated. There are always tradeoffs for any change in policy.

Right now congressional Democrats, led by Henry Waxman and Ed Markey, are trying to use that conventional wisdom to pass a bill that could be destructive on both fronts. As even some on the left have pointed out, the bill may not actually establish binding caps on emissions, and may in fact actually contribute to worldwide pollution. This kind of up-is-down outcome is no surprise to those of us who understand how government is often less efficient at coming up with solutions than it is generating unintended consequences.

But then there is the looming economic impact of the bill, and there is no doubt it would be a negative one. Last month the Heritage Foundation produced a report analzying the bill in economic terms. According to the study, Waxman-markey would:

• Reduce aggregate gross domestic product (GDP) by $7.4 trillion,
• Destroy 844,000 jobs on average, with peak years seeing unemployment rise by over 1,900,000 jobs,
• Raise electricity rates 90 percent after adjusting for inflation,
• Raise inflation-adjusted gasoline prices by 74 percent,
• Raise residential natural gas prices by 55 percent,
• Raise an average family’s annual energy bill by $1,500, and
• Increase inflation-adjusted federal debt by 29 percent, or $33,400 additional federal debt per person, again after adjusting for inflation.

There seems little question the bill, if it became law, would lead to an increase in prices for consumers. And that only begins with gas and oil prices, because of the price of gas and oil is built into the price of everything.

What’s more, everybody knows that the real source of carbon emissions in the near future is not the United States. Like Western Europe, our economy is developed already and we have the technologies to run cleaner factories and plants. Everybody knows the real source in coming decades will be China, India and Russia. In fact, just last year China surpassed us to become the country responsible for more CO2 than any other. This trend will continue.

And it does not take a masters in economics to realize that these countries are not about to follow our lead. The United States has a little bit less than one car per person (1.3 to be exact) while China is not even close. It has one car for every 100 people. Why would they make it more expensive for them to close the gap with us? They’re no fools. They won’t. That’s why President Obama and the Democrats in Congress would be just as foolish to make it more expensive for us to maintain and extend our lead.

Today we have the most dynamic market, but President Obama seems determined to sacrifice our competitive advantage for the sake of a campaign pledge to his base on the anti-business Left. Ironically, the most likely destination for the jobs would be none other than China and India.

Reducing carbon emissions can be a worthy goal, but it must be considered along with other objectives, especially the most important — ensuring that the United States remains the world’s strongest economy. The Waxman-Markey bill that President Obama is so eager to sign does not even come close to doing that.

Lastly, please forgive the plug but I am going to be on CNBC’s Squawk Box tomorrow (Wednesday) from 7-9 a.m. and I will be talking about this very subject. If you have stronger arguments to arm me with, I welcome your input, so please let me know in the comments.