GOP Rising Tide ’09: It Came From the States


I have written before of the paramount importance of governors in providing leadership to the Republican Party and to our country. One my joys this year has been to work closely with Governors Haley Barbour and Tim Pawlenty in my role as Chairman of the Republican Governor’s Association Executive Roundtable.

My view is that we are poised to win the two gubernatorial races this year with Bob McDonnell capturing Virginia and Chris Christie becoming governor of New Jersey.  Yes, there is a lot of time between now and Election Day, but I feel good about both of these key races.  Just as in 1993, with victories for George Allen and Christie Todd Whitman in these states, this will mark a turning point for the Republicans’ march back to a majority center-right party.

Keep in mind, the quality of candidates really matters, and over 50% of newly elected members of Congress and the Senate in 1994 made the decision to run after being emboldened by the Allen and Whitman wins.

Four days during early August reaffirmed my conviction that the revival of the Republican Party will be led by our governors and gubernatorial candidates. In this post, I will address the first of two separate events.

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Ten for the Road, Part 2: Which Republican Leaders Are Making an Impact?


I continue to enjoy Chris Cillizza’s interesting top 10 list of most influential in the Republican Party. While the world, needless to say, is not waiting for my utterances on the same topic, I can’t resist taking a crack at it.

My list has slightly different criteria than my previous list and focuses on the near term for the top five and then the longer term for the next five. The reason is this: President Obama is pressing two legislative initiatives that are the most dangerous, costly, and ineffective as anything seen in recent history – an overhaul of the health care system and a cap-and-trade bill. Despite President Obama’s eloquence, the public seems to get it, and public opinion is turning against these policies. If they can be defeated in their present form in Congress, it will represent a victory for mainstream America, mark the end of the Obama honeymoon, and launch the resurgence of the Republican Party.

Here is my list of the top 10 players making an impact for our party:

  1. Mitch McConnell - He has the task of holding together the forty Republican Senators, no small task. If he remains successful with this charge, it is extremely unlikely the health care or cap-and-trade bills will be enacted.
  2. John Boehner – He has a simple task in the House and so far has been enormously effective in binding the GOP together, not by partisan political force, but by sensible articulations and unity around a set of policy beliefs, and just enough comedic timing to keep things light. He is serious, but not self-serious.
  3. Doug Elmendorf – True, he’s not a Republican but the head of a Congressional Budget Office, appointed by Democrat leadership. Thank goodness he is a man of character and courage, for it is he who put a dagger in the health care plan with an accurate assessment of its true costs and deficit impact. This confirmed what Republican leaders have been saying and gave encouragement to the Blue Dog Democrats who have been highly skeptical.
  4. Bob McDonnell
  5. and Chris Christie – We have two statewide elections in a little more than three months. McDonnell is the best candidate Virginia has had in a generation and leads his opponent by 3-5 points. He is on the right side of the issues on health care, energy, and deficit spending. He will win. Christie is an outstanding candidate and leads Corzine by some twelve points currently. The same fears about taxing and spending that dominate the national scene have run Corzines’s approval in the ground, based on New Jersey’s spending and huge deficits. Both McDonnell and Christie are on the path to victory, aided in part by increasing public skepticism of President Obama’s programs and the enormous deficits and mounting debt that results. Now, one could ask: Are defeats of the health care and cap-and-trade bills combined with victories on both Virginia and New Jersey the equivalent of a straight flush for Republicans? I believe the two are related and have a fairly good probability. If so, the Republican resurgence will not only have begun but be in full swing, just as was experienced in 1993 with the victories of George Allen in Virginia and Christie Todd Whitman in New Jersey.
  6. Mitt Romney – Now I turn to the future. Romney continues to do all the right things campaigning for Republican candidates and raising large amounts for candidates and his own well run PAC. If the current recession continues, President Obama will have to assume responsibility – he may start by looking at his poorly-designed “stimulus” plan – then perhaps nobody will be better positioned than Mitt. His leadership experience and ability were not quite enough to overcome doubts in 2008, but now that he has shown he can run as confident a campaign as the current president’s, he will definitely get a strong second look as the 2012 race takes shape.
  7. Tim Pawlenty – Pawlenty is positioned to take on a leadership role among Republican Governors, is receiving top marks on his appearances around the country, and will soon be regarded as a top contender for 2012. He is showing bold leadership, even after announcing he will not run for re-election, with his promise to close Minnesota’s $2.7 billion deficit without resorting to tax increases. This means he is taking an axe to the state’s budget himself above the predictable objections of the Minnesota DFL. Too few Republicans these days are pro-active about fiscal conservatism, and those in Congress especially should pay attention.
  8. Haley Barbour – He is undoubtly the best political strategist in the Republican Party and is just as strong on policy. He will be a dynamic force as Chair of the Republican Governor’s Association and will be enormously helpful to both McDonnell and Christie. Will he or won’t he in 2012 is a guessing game we’ll be playing well into the cycle.
  9. Charlie CristMark Kirk, and hopefully Mike Castle – And other moderate candidates. My fellow conservatives may not like this one, but hear me out: Unless our party can embrace a big tent policy that welcomes moderates like my friend Colin Powell, we will not win elections. In liberal-dominated Illinois, Delaware and increasingly purple Florida, we need to be open to supporting officials who can win and will support our issues most of the time, instead of electing more Democrats who will oppose us nearly all of the time. These three plus our great conservative candidates in states like New Hampshire, Ohio, and Missouri give me great hope that we can remain a party in which conservatives and moderates can not only coexist, but flourish.
  10. Paul Ryan – As ranking minority on the House Budget Committee, his voice will continue to be heard and become more influential. And it is a clear and compelling voice. I believe Ryan could become Governor of Wisconsin if he chose to run, but he is that unusual politician who is not consumed by ambition but devoted to his constituents and his pivotal role to Congress. Stay tuned- this is a man to watch.

I have omitted my friend, Sarah Palin, as there is no clarity on her future plans. Also absent are strong and influential leaders like Eric Cantor, John McCain, and John Cornyn. We should continue to watch them, and also let’s be alert for the next step of others not now in the spotlight like Bobby Jindal and Norm Coleman. All are fine Republicans with much to bring to the table, even if not in a national campaign (or not yet). I am always keeping my ear to the ground, so please suggest others in the comments.


Nobody Boos a Nobody


To summarize baseball legend Reggie Jackson: nobody boos a nobody. That is definitely true in the case of Governor Sarah Palin. I don’t think I am going out on a limb here when I speculate that individuals who repeatedly attack her anonymously view her as a threat. And that includes members of the media hell-bent tearing down young Republican up-and-comers as well as some in Governor Palin’s own party — a party desperately in need of redefining — who are motivated, for whatever reason, to try and crush their rivals.

The most recent and grossly unfair attack came from Vanity Fair magazine. The writer clearly had an unshakable point of view from the start and talked only to those who would criticize. For example, he personally asked me at event preceding the White House Correspondents Dinner if I would talk to him about Governor Palin. I agreed. He didn’t call. He didn’t email. He never once tried to get my take. I also know he never contacted campaign manager Rick Davis, or John McCain.

I have known many political leaders over four decades including all Republican presidents and VPs. I have come to know Sarah Palin over the past year and can state unequivocally that she is smart, curious, hard working, charming, and effective. She also has something her detractors clearly lack – a sense of honor and loyalty.

I know this is petty, but it reminds me of the 2004 presidential election where it was commonplace and accepted in much of the mainstream media to call President Bush stupid and Senator Kerry smart and insightful. At the end of the day, when Senator Kerry finally released his college transcripts, wouldn’t you know: he did quite a bit worse than President Bush.

I have seen Sarah up close with leading heavyweights, and have seen her hold her own and then some. At the dinner at my home referenced in the article, she engaged comfortably and deeply with people ranging from Alan Greenspan to Madeleine Albright to Mitch McConnell. She asked for a foreign policy discussion on her June 7 trip to Washington, and I saw her engage in an informed and spirited manner with Frank Carlucci.

Governor Palin has many admirers and defenders out there who will not allow her to be branded by jealous rivals with their own agenda and the elitists in the national media. I am not sure who the unnamed Vanity Fair sources are, but without question they lack chivalry and have acted in a craven manner. They also lack the facts. I am ashamed of my former campaign colleagues, whoever they are.


Why Bob McDonnell Will Win Virginia, and What it Can Mean for the Republican Party


As a Virginian and a member of the Republican Governor’s Association, I’m glad that the Democratic primary is settled and now the campaign for Virginia governor can begin. State Senator Creigh Deeds won the primary last night, after trailing by double digits less than three weeks ago.

The stakes in this year’s Virginia gubernatorial race are the highest ever. Even more than New Jersey, the other major off-year contest, the gubernatorial elections in my backyard are predictive of trends that will play out further into the cycle. I know that many felt our best chance would be against Clinton’s money man, Terry McAuliffe, but this Virginia Republican is not concerned. This race is not going to be about who our opponent is. We will win because of what the Republican Party is, and who and what we represent.

I believe our nominee, Bob McDonnell, is a major rising star in this party, and this race will prove it. For one thing, Bob brings a number of qualities to the race that previous GOP candidates in Virginia did not have. Better still, he carries none of their flaws.

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Trading Places: Cap and Trade’s Likely Effect on the U.S. and China


From the diaries by Erick

The subject of the environment is a difficult one for conservatives. The Left has owned the discussion for years, always pitching the issue in the direst terms, decade after decade. When we have tried to point out reasonable objections to this extremist rhetoric, such as that there is less than a scientific consensus about climate change, we have been called “deniers” or worse.

This is doubly unfair because there are few things more conservative than conservation. There can be no doubt that being good stewards of our natural resources is necessary for human sustainability and survival. Unfortunately, in the public’s mind the Left has a monopoly on setting wise environmental policy. What we understand, as the Left seems unwilling to acknowledge, is that environmental and economic policies are often very closely associated. There are always tradeoffs for any change in policy.

Right now congressional Democrats, led by Henry Waxman and Ed Markey, are trying to use that conventional wisdom to pass a bill that could be destructive on both fronts. As even some on the left have pointed out, the bill may not actually establish binding caps on emissions, and may in fact actually contribute to worldwide pollution. This kind of up-is-down outcome is no surprise to those of us who understand how government is often less efficient at coming up with solutions than it is generating unintended consequences.

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Ten for the Road: Which Republican Leaders Will Lead Us on Our Road to Recovery?


Thanks to my chairmanship of the Executive Roundtable for the Republican Governor’s Association, I have had the privilege of knowing some of the party’s most influential leaders. This, plus concerns on the current Administration’s direction (think assault on free enterprise and march toward socialism) have led me to some early thoughts on who might both lead our party back and who might be our nominee in 2012.

So, for better, or for worse, based on my personal experiences, here are my top ten who are leading the debate today, some of whom we should be looking to for 2012. Given that I believe the solutions to most of our country’s problems aren’t found in Washington, you will find few on my list who serve in Congress.

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Remembering Jack Kemp, a Conservative Star and a Wonderful Friend


It is with great regret that this is the second time in less than a week that I am sharing my thoughts with you about a recently departed friend.  That said, this one is much different and far more heart-wrenching than the first.

I have been a Jack Kemp Republican my entire life. His message of hope and compassion mixed with fiscal conservatism, lower taxes, less government, and individual empowerment have guided me throughout my years in both business and politics. I always thought Jack was the true heir to Ronald Reagan and he was an incredible inspiration to so many of us.

His influence on Republican policy can hardly be measured. Jack was one of the earliest to recognize the importance of Arthur Laffer‘s supply-side theories. He was instrumental in putting tax cuts at the top of Ronald Reagan’s agenda, and the Kemp-Roth tax cuts are among the most important economic policies of the 20th century.  Without them, it’s impossible to say whether President Bush would have taken the same course twenty years later.  And thanks to his past as a championship-winning quarterback with the AFL Buffalo Bills, Jack understood minorities and others outside of the usual, traditional Republican constituencies better than most of us.  For decades he urged us to go outside of our electoral comfort zone and reach out to African-Americans and Latinos because he believed they shared our values and that by sharing the power of our ideas with more people we could help lift millions out of poverty and into the “opportunity society,” as he aptly called it.  We are not all the way there yet, but when we arrive, Jack will deserve a big share of the credit.

Jack was also a great personal friend.  For years we traveled together, Marlene and I stayed with the Kemps at their home in Colorado to celebrate his 70th, and they visited often with us at our home as well.

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My Obama 100 Days Scorecard


There has been a lot of talk about President Obama’s first 100 days in office. Both online and off, there’s also been much analysis about the so-called Obama “FAIL” movement. I don’t hope for President Obama’s failure. I’d like for him to succeed in making our country safer, stronger and much more prosperous. I hope and pray that he does so both for America’s success as well as capitalism’s future. However, his policies are unlikely to achieve desired results.

Given that we the taxpayers are now significant shareholders in a heck of a lot of companies due to the bailout, it is important to remember, that whether you are running just a company or our entire country, in order to achieve success you need to measure success qualitatively and quantitatively along the way.

So with that in mind, here are my grades for President Obama’s first report card.

Foreign Policy: He’s had the good judgment to rely on our distinguished generals and not to withdraw prematurely from Iraq. The build-up in Afghanistan is badly needed, but probably not enough. Talking to the likes of Hugo Chavez and trying to talk with Iran is unlikely to bring results, but there is no great harm in trying a new approach. Policy towards Cuba for almost 50 years can’t be judged a success, so some new thinking has merit. Grade: B+

National Security: In spite of good foreign policy, the recent release of interrogation files and photos will weaken our intelligence-gathering capabilities that are instrumental in preventing attacks against America. President Obama made a mistake in playing too far left and to the politically correct crowd.Grade: C-

Economy: Clearly his worst subject. He’s making a grave mistake by executing on a plan with an over-reliance on government spending and control vs. incentives for private sector initiatives. Never in history has this approach successfully led a democracy out of recession. Further, rather than placing all their focus on digging out of the recession, the Obama Administration is diverting by trying to nationalize the health care system, strengthen power of unions, and increase taxes, especially on investment. Huge deficits will result in more debt than accumulated by past administrations from George Washington to George W. Bush combined. This will inevitably lead to an unhappy ending, and it’s called inflation. Grade: D

Energy and Environment: While President Obama deserves some credit for addressing climate change, especially focusing on carbon emissions, his cap and trade proposal is destructive. It will increase taxes on American businesses, and ultimately this diminishes our competitive advantage and leads to displacement of employment from the United States to other countries. Further, the new employment and production will be in countries like China and India, which have little or no constraints on carbon emissions. Thus, the end result will be fewer jobs in the U.S. and greater world wide pollution. Further, the limitations and/or bans on off shore drilling inhibit our energy production and further increase our dependence on countries, some of whom want nothing more than to destroy our way of life. Grade: C

Overall Grade: C

President Obama’s first 100 days could have been a lot better, but, scarily, could have been worse. Let’s hope the President gets some serious tutoring on the economy and Capitalism 101. I will be anxious and hopeful to see improvements and real results next semester.


Arlen’s Easy Way Out


I have known and been friends with Arlen over 36 years and have always supported his important role as a moderate in our party.

He will continue to be a friend.

But leaving the party because you’re facing a tough electoral challenge doesn’t seem consistent with his record of courage and principle.

I have given to every one of Arlen’s statewide campaigns. While the passion with which I supported him may have been magnified by our friendship, the fact of my support was a consequence of our shared political values of limited government and strong national defense. In our country, parties are necessarily big, to accommodate a range of views and geographies. I have always viewed the GOP as a Big Tent Party, and appreciate the inclusion of moderates like Arlen.

However, in leaving the Republican Party, Arlen has abandoned people who have been his allies for another team. He has thrown in with people who have a fundamentally different vision for America, and one that I profoundly disagree with.

Why did he do this? It seems as if Arlen took the path of least resistance. He knew that his primary fight would be difficult. Arlen has never stepped down from a fight, but he did this time. Undoubtedly his Democratic primary campaign will be safe. Ed Rendell, Arlen’s former boss at the Philadelphia District Attorney’s office, will get his former Deputy Mayor out of the race now. So after a career of fighting for what he believed in, Arlen took the easy way out to keep his job.

So that’s why I will be supporting Pat Toomey for US Senate against my friend Arlen Specter. Right now, Barack Obama and the Democratic Party are taking America in the wrong direction. And we need a strong voice in the Senate fighting for our party’s perspective against them.


With the McCain Campaign: The Final Push


My last chapter in the campaign ended with our successful convention in St. Paul, MN. Both John McCain and Sarah Palin excited people across the country, and we came roaring into the general elections. Due to the enthusiastic crowds that Sarah was attracting, John and Sarah did a lot of campaigning together as a team. It was working, and John’s message and character, as well as the team’s maverick image, resulted in a real boost to the ticket. By September 12, we were three points ahead on average in the national polls and were well positioned and gaining in the key electoral states. 

Then came the economic tsunami, and it all changed. On September 13, Lehman Brothers failed, and an economic crisis gained steam. The public placed a fair amount of blame on the party in power – the Republicans, and the Obama campaign skillfully exploited this disaffection. While candidate Obama and his team offered no real solutions and had no experience in dealing with the economy, they weren’t us and thus reaped the benefit. With an unpopular war, an incumbent president sinking in the polls, and now the most vexing economic crisis of our generation, John McCain went from a three point lead to an eight point deficit in the polls in ten days. We weren’t helped by John’s decision to suspend the campaign, threaten to cancel the first debate, and return to Washington to address the problem and find a bipartisan approach to a salvage package. Unfortunately, he wasn’t able to accomplish this and his standing on the economy was diminished.

Although John performed admirably in the three debates, and Sarah did a great job in her debate with then Senator Biden, we could not achieve parity in the polls on who would best handle the economy or in presidential preference.

On the fund raising side, we knew John would have time for only four fundraisers. We mapped out where we though we would have the best possible return with John’s time and decided to hold events in Chicago, Miami, Los Angeles, and New York. 

Immediately after the Convention, John headed to Chicago for his first major fundraiser in the General Election. We had been told repeatedly that we would never raise more then $2 million in Chicago. No Republican had ever raised more than that and most observers felt would be increasingly difficult in Obama’s home town. We knew there was a silent Republican base in Chicago who wanted to support John and would be willing to contribute if given the opportunity. Our team in Illinois, led by Pat Kinsey, ended the night with $4 million for John with great leadership from Bill Strong, Jack Sandner, Bill Smithburg, and others.

Subsequent events in Miami and Los Angeles were successful, culminating in our October 14 final event in New York City. Woody Johnson, who was a tower of strength throughout the campaign, again performed admirably. Our consulting team of Tamara Hallisey and Rachel McGregor had been a strong team of fundraisers in New York and Connecticut throughout the campaign. They were determined once again to break the record as the largest event for John, which they had previously set in May at $7 million. This was also to be the only joint fundraising event with both John and Sarah Palin.  As we approached this event, the economic turmoil that we are now experiencing began to break, and we were all nervous about how this would affect the bottom line. In the end, our New York Finance Committee rallied together, raising over $10 million – the largest fundraising event for a candidate in the city’s history. 

Sarah Palin also traveled the country attending political events and fundraisers. It was absolutely incredible to see the grassroots support, both politically and financially, that she generated. Her fundraisers were extremely successful, out performing all the goals set.

As mentioned at the onset, I am proud that total fundraising for McCain-Palin 2008 resulted in the most successful finance efforts for a Republican presidential campaign in history.