Whether this is something that will help through to Election Day, though, no one can say.

Republicans are going to move to Romney if you or I were the pick

Undecideds are going to move to Romney if you or I were the pick because they always move away from the incumbent unless he picks Tancredo

I don’t believe voters make their decision based on the VP pick is my point. The poll determines Condi is popular – it doesn’t say she moves people from Obama to Romney because she doesn’t and neither does anyone else which is the best argument for pick the best person to run the country if you die and to help campaign and raise money. Neither of those is Condi – because as an evangelical she makes me want to puke at the thought of her being on the ticket and Romney ought to consider I don’t think I am alone there in a group that comprises 1/4 of his base. (This is another thing the poll leaves out – how many evangelicals stay home – that is really the important one to Romney). I’d hold my nose and vote for him and choke on the puke…how many wouldn’t.

Democrats: 85-7 –> 86-10: +1 Obama, +3 Romney
Republicans: 5-84 –> 5-89: 0 Obama, +5 Romney
Independents: 38-34 –> 41-40: +3 Obama, +6 Romney

College degree: 47-42 –> 48-46: +1 Obama, +4 Romney
No college: 43-42 –> 44-46: +1 Obama, +4 Romney

Men: 42-43 –> 44-47: +2 Obama, +4 Romney
Women: 48-40 –> 48-45: 0 Obama, +5 Romney

About the only one that doesn’t change much is:

Tea Partiers: 9-85 –> 8-86: -1 Obama, +1 Romney

but as you said, Tea Partiers aren’t going to change much based on the VP pick.

Those numbers are a solid improvement across the board in all demographics; Romney is picking up 2/3rds or more of the voters who are persuaded to one side or the other based on the VP pick. The only way you’re going to explain them away is by showing another poll that has another VP pick showing comparable improvement in Romney’s position. Good luck finding that.

Your logic would apply to Rubio, though; he only gets 12 percent overall, but 28 percent among Tea Partiers.

Q1) Who will you vote for: Romney or Obama?
46% say Obama, 42% Romney, 12% undecided

Q2) which best states your opinion of Obama Care
1. Unconstitutional 2. Universal Health care is a fundamental right 3. Neither
The results are 46% Unconstitutional, 46% Fundamental right, 8% neither

From that response, you know the election is actually no worse for Romney than 46/46 (because Romney hard base is going to call it constitutional and aren’t voting Obama – Obama hard base will call it fundamental and aren’t voting Romney)

Q3) Romney/Rice – Obama/Biden and get 46/46/8 – the best analysis is she is a net zero. If your response in Q2 was 50 unconstitutional, 46 fundamental right, 4 neither – the proper conclusion would be Condi actually shooed away support.

That’s my point you can’t go from Q1 to Q3 and make any kind of statement with validity – you don’t have enough data about the undecideds. It is just fallacy to say 15 in every 100 people 3.5 months from a presidential election haven’t decided who they are going to vote for.

You have to separate out those people who aren’t for whatever reason telling you the truth on Q1 – that is what the control questions do (and there would be more than one control question – I just used an obvious one for illustration).

No one other than Mitt Romney is going to apply the time and resources to put a poll in the field that provides the needed data to mine accurate results and then pay for the mining. The reason being is well it’s just not worth the expense to anyone else.

Among people who self-identify as part of the Tea Party, their preference for Romney’s VP:

28% Rubio
25% Rice
13% don’t know
9% Ryan
6% Christie
6% Jindal
5% Martinez
4% other
2% Pawlenty
2% McDonnell
1% Portman

Independents give the edge to Obama over Romney by four percentage points in response to the ballot question, and are more likely to back the Democratic ticket by one point when the running mates are included.

In addition, Romney support among Republicans increases by five points (from 84 to 89 percent) with Rice on the ticket.

Of course, it’s possible to spin this that simply reminding people that Biden is Obama’s VP is enough to drop Obama’s poll numbers 4 points.

I say I am undecided but I am voting Romney
I say I am undecided and I will trully vote for either Obama or Romney

The issue is are the +4 Romney voters anyway (and 80-90% of undecideds are).

No VP candidate is a 400 positive basis point move, put this way do we really believe 4 in every 100 people are making their decision positively based on a VP pick.

I haven’t seen a poll that is convincing one or the other on Rice. I suspect I haven’t seen it because only Mitt Romney cares enough to put one that detailed in the field and he is not revealing the results….