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Why the Democrats may fear Herman Cain most of all, ( or what % of the black vote could he peel away from Obama?)

By: gawken (Diary) | May 18th, 2011 at 08:28 AM |

RESIZE: AAA

If you are coming for the story on Lee Fang and Center for American Progress, due to a bug in this morning’s briefing, you come here. To go to that story, please CLICK HERE.

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The field for the GOP nomination is starting to take form. We have several serious, viable candidates. Herman Cain is one of these. And over the next year, they will all have the opportunity to present themselves to the voters, and make their case as to why they should be the nominee. This process is good for the party ( it will ensure that we nominate a real conservative) and good for the ultimate nominee ( it will battle test that individual for a grueling general election campaign against a formidable sitting President.)

If Cain is able ( sorry, that’s a bad pun) to best make the case for himself, and against Obama, then he will be the nominee. But in 2012, I do believe that whomever emerges will have the near unanimious support of the GOP base and the Tea party movement. The “broken-glass” voters are back; eager to vote Obama out, and to elect a conservative president who reflects their values and respects their wishes.

In case you haven’t noticed, Herman Cain happens to be black, though happily it’s of no import in the GOP nominating process. However, it’s not to early to contemplate the possibility of two black men running against each other, and what that might portend.

Blacks came out in record numbers for Obama in 2008, and overwhelmingly voted for him. The Democrats have long enjoyed the near monolithic, blind support of the black community. However, were Cain to run against Obama, that could substantially change.

It has long been noted that the majority of blacks are fairly conservative socially, yet the Democrats they keep electing embrace, and push, the most radical social agenda imaginable. Blacks would benefit the most from education reforms ( charter schools) yet the Democrats’ core constituency, the education unions, vehemently oppose it.

So, if it was a black man running against a black man, could that all change? It wouldn’t be about race, it wouldn’t be about blacks voting against supposedly “one of their own,” in effect shoving the first black elected President out the Oval Office door. It might well be about issues.

Cain right now does not enjoy widespread support among GOP voters. Part of that is due to a lack of name recognition. That will change in the coming months. More importantly, everyone who hears him, learns about him, seems to be quite impressed. He is very likeable, not an insignificant quality in a candidate. If he can make his case effectively, support will coalesce and grow around him.

I make no pretentions at being a political analyst. (I’ll wait for Jay Cost to have at it on Real Clear Politics.) I leave it to others to dive into the electoral weeds.. But let’s consider a few statistics.:

In 2008, the black vote was 13% of the electorate, and 96% of them voted for Obama. It was a major component of Obama’s victory. Political analysts have already begun to ask if they would turn out again at the same rate in 2012? The newness factor is now gone. Cain could impact this in two ways.

Historically, about 85-90% of the black vote has gone to the Democratic nominee. If we assume that Cain could return the black vote to that level, then we’ve already made headway. If he could peel away another 5-10% of the black vote, because of the issues, then that’s a very serious sea change. Cain might also inadvertently depress the overall black turnout, as some black voters for whom race is the key criteria, might well stay at home. All of which is very good for the GOP.

Consider that in 2008, three states, Florida, North Carolina, and Indiana, were all decided by a few percentage points. The parameters of the change in the black vote alluded to above, ALONE would have given those states to the GOP. And these same factors would effect many statewide contests in 2012.

If Cain is able to win the GOP nomination, it will be because of his position on the key issues, and the force of his personality in presenting them, and himself, to the voters. And as the nominee he will enjoy unparalled support. And he could well be the candidate that the Democrats fear the most.

COMMENTS

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mspector

Good job, gawken.

My “dream ticket” would be Cain and Bachmann but am very mindful that Job One in 2012 is to dethrone (and I use the word advisedly) Obama. I have only two concerns about him is whether as a candidate.

I admire and respect him as a conservative firebrand, my first question is whether he will be able successfully to reach out to independent voters. That will remain to be seen.

My second question has to do with foreign policy. So far his opinions seem vague. I want to know that he will not engage us in Libya-type misadventures, that he understands and can articulate an approach to opposing jihadist Islam abroad and at home, and that he is adamant in defense of Israel.

Yes, I agree it would be a political tsunami were Cain to be the nominee, and I have no doubt he could crush Obama in any debate. But race is not even on my list of reasons to support the man.

http://theheartlander.wordpress.com/ heartlander

Cain’s got a lot going for him in terms of positive attitude and energy — which I think voters are desperately craving. A willingness to stand up to Obama and speak boldly is what created the recent (and thankfully, gone) Trump phenomenon.

He’s also very appealing precisely because of his business and banking expertise, given that jobs and deficit are probably the two biggest issues right now.

But given Obama’s inexperience and incompetence at governing (he’s very, very good at community organizing, i.e., class warfare and rabble-rousing), voters may be craving his opposite — i.e., someone with substantial, proven governing experience. I’m favorably disposed toward Pawlenty for this reason, despite some mistakes he’s made (and every politician has, by the way), but Pawlenty’s going to have to amp up the energy level if he doesn’t want to look like wilted lettuce next to someone like Cain.

As for the race issue, I would love to be pleasantly surprised, but I’m afraid the “10% tops” estimate is probably right. To some extent, people vote for the person with whom they identify. What black person wants to self-identify as a traitor, Uncle Tom, and all the other names they call Herman Cain and Allen West?

On the other hand, perhaps there is, among black Americans, a substantial enough “silent minority” that would embrace a fellow black who has no use at all for the tired old “poor-me” stereotypes.

On the other hand, what do I know? I’m not black. I can never forget how even such a self-confident, brilliant, accomplished and (mostly) conservative woman as Condi Rice supported Barack Obama in 2008. That’s how deep these feelings run, feelings that no white person can ever really know.

http://theheartlander.wordpress.com/ heartlander

Having said all that, though, let me add that Republicans are hopelessly clueless idiots if they don’t start really reaching out to black and Hispanic voters on the longtime, solid pro-life, pro-family, pro-education-choice planks of the GOP platform.

acat

The D.C. wing of the Stupid Party can’t seem to tell Mexican immigrants from 1970s-era Cuban immigrants… why should we wait on them?

How can we do outreach based on shared values as Tea Parties or Conservatives directly, bringing in new voters entirely without the Stupid Party?

Mew

sccrenny

happens to be a passion of mine. How do you break through the phalanx of race-hustlers and liberals to reach the black community with conservative values?

How do you get the point across that the salvation of the black community will be achieved in the same manner as the salvation of American society as a whole?

That the advice we would give black children is EXACTLY the same advice we give our own children.

That the recipe for success in America is color-blind.

renny

but Cain or West or Jindal or Rubio, et. al. would one and for all put at least 1/2 a stake in the heart of the MSM vampire-Rep-bigot theme.

http://travismonitor.blogspot.com Freedoms Truth

Cain’s race will play a role, not in changing the votes of dyed-in-wool-dependent-class voters, but in squashing the GOP-evil-racist memes that are tiresomely omnipresent in this Age of Obama.

akafroman

Those who believe in identity politics will simply stay home due to the fact that they will see the election as a “win-win”.

renny

because the media would call him Uncle Tom, oreo, sell out, yadda ad infinitum. But he has the business experience EVERY ONE OF little o’s crew lack in entirety.

Cain’s lack is political experience. Carter got eaten alive by his own Dems. in DC because he wasn’t politically savvy about how the inside Beltway works. Cain needs to learn fast.

blooch

They’re too sly for that. Some extremist black whack-jobs will do it, but not the button-down talking heads. The Talking heads will compare him to Trump or W, and paint nightmarish scenariios of a potential Cain cabinet being a star chamber of commerce filled with jingoistic, know-nothing, bourgeois shop-keepers. They will portray him as an opportunistic huckster without an original thought in his head, posing as a polar opposite of whatever is perceived to be wrong with Obama.

izoneguy

http://travismonitor.blogspot.com Freedoms Truth

Herman Cain gets it on so many levels.

Herman Cain is not the establishment.
http://www.plumbbobblog.com Plumb_Bob

Cain is the genuine article of which Barack Obama is the knock-off. This will be immediately obvious to everybody who looks at the two of them, especially black voters.

I would not support Cain merely because he was black, but the notion of running a genuine black candidate who happens to be a good conservative and a successful businessman is too good to miss.

However, he’d better be prepared for a lesson in how the left really feels about real black men.

ihateliberals

for this election the stakes are too high for an inexperienced nominee. I know there is an argument for someone not connected to the inside the beltway gangs but with this election the country is in such bad shape we need someone with government experience and a very strong conservative background. Cain is a very capable businessman but that doesn’t translate to government finances. the government financial systems is not the same as the private sector. An executive of a corporation is responsible only to the board of directors and the stock holders not to the employees. The President is not responsible to his Cabinet or his advisers but is responsible to the Voters. The learning curve is a challenge for the government experienced candidate let alone someone who is not experienced.

We need a candidate that has some government experience, Strong conservative and not a RINO. Notice how this is not a John McCain or any number of current Republicans. for example newt Gingrich use to fit the bill and now he is being turned into a RINO. His proposals for health care are no better than Obama’s.

gunslingr45

have always said I would vote for a person as long as they were conservative and skin color had nothing to do with it. Herman Cain gives me a chance to put up or shut up and I will put up if we can get him past the GOP cronies and RINO

annplato

you claim that a successful business CEO is not what we need now, because he does not understand how the government accounting is different than the private one.

That means that you are for the “status quo”. If the government cannot live within its means then it must raise taxes to keep what is going the way it always did.

My opinion is that it is about time the government lives the way responsible people do on Main Street: if my income goes down, I will pay the absolute necessities (mortgage or rent, utilities and loan obligations) and then what’s left I buy food for sustenance. Clothes, entertainment or vacations I postpone when my income can cover it.

Cain, being a “regular guy” would lead the politicians that way and that would change the way government works. THAT is the “change” we need right NOW, not another career politician who thinks that pay increases in government budgets are a Constitutional right of the politician for the politicians!

http://www.gmsplace.com/ civil truth

…not to mention that your post is self-contradictory.

In your third paragraph you state:

In case you haven

http://www.gmsplace.com/ civil truth

Looks like I left out the slash within what was supposed to be the closing blockquote code. So instead the rest of my comment formatted as a quote within a quote. I hope it’s clear where the author’s words end and mine resume. Still a bit early in the morning here.
gawken

I thought I stated clearly that, IMO Cain has a good chance of winning the GOP nomination on the merits of his case, if he makes it effectively, and that happily, his race appears NOT to be an issue in the GOP primary process.

So then, we can contemplate the possibility of two black men vying for the presidency. And is it wrong to wonder how that would impact the black electorate..and what it might mean?
http://www.gmsplace.com/ civil truth

At this stage of the game, we should be focusing on policy, skill sets, ability to articulate, ability to handle the opposition (in the form of the media and Democrats, but I repeat myself), leadership qualities.

I’m sensitized from 2008, where a weak field led to endless appeals at RedState to tactical considerations rather than the merits of the candidates themselves.

So perhaps I jumped too quickly, if as you indicate your purpose was not such an resort to tactical considerations but simply a “what if” analysis. In which case, carry on.
gawken

I can see where you were comign from..and glad that it’s cleared up..and done in a civil manner. And of course, the GOP may yet well find a way to “screw it up.” We shall see.

But be assured that the Dems are already runnign the political calculus of what it would mean to face Cain in the election..And I don’t think they like what they are already starting to see..
barleycorn

anxious to nit-pick so many are.

This is a diary by an unknown person. It isn’t George Will in the WaPo or Charles Krauthammer on Fox.

Respectful and reasonable diaries on Redstate SHOULD be judged by what they are: An insight into the thinking of the grassroots.

Gawken’s post was both respectful and reasonable and was not contradictory as you claim.

Your apparent hyper-sensitivity to any consideration of how race might affect the 2012 election, is a by-product of left-of-center political correctness.
http://www.gmsplace.com/ civil truth

Seems like there was a bit of failure to communicate that triggered by my experience here at RedState of the 2008 primary season.
BA Cyclone

I think you are right to be gun-shy.

However right in this comment trail you can also see some self-defeatists who already claim “Cain can’t win” without any substance to back this argument.

I’m happy to read a thoughtful argument that says ‘hey, Cain CAN win!’ Here is the data…

Of course it is really early, but SOME voters do judge their primary candidate support upon a foundation of plausible electability in the general. So there does remain a point at this early period for some limited discussion on tactical questions.
ohiohistorian

Look at Steele, Blackwell, and Swann. I don’t remember any of them getting a significant amount of the black vote in any of their elections. Maybe it will be better this time. I hope Herman can relate to the black community, but I fear the black community leaders are too much in Obama’s pocket.
onemovoter

The only real way to peal a sizable chunk of the african-American vote from the Democrats, is to focus on a few issues that they are really starting to want. One is “vouchers” which that word has become a dirty word to democrats but secretly it will really perk the interest of blacks. The other is getting down to a personal level in how it is possible to increase jobs and opportunity for the black community which is suffering from close to 40% unemployment.

If any of the candidates can relate those well to the african-American community then s/he would garner a good chunk. We just need to let the GOP primary shake out.
gawken

For the vast majority of the black voters, race, then party, are their major, if not only deciding factors. If Steele and Swann had run against black Dems, then I think tey would have been able to garner far more support from the black electorate.
ohiohistorian

You said “race, then party” are their major, if not only deciding factors. How would Steele and Swann running against black Dems get more support than running against white ones? I don’t follow your first and second sentences as consistent. In fact, I read them as contradictory. And that was MY point; if they can’t garner black votes against a white opponent, they don’t stand a chance in 7734 of garnering votes against a black Obama who is promoting himself as the savior of the underclass. (And I guess he is the savior; he sure is doing a lot to get more people into it as the Food Stamp President and the 99 week unemployment President).
Bill S

powertothepeople

I keep hearing everyone say he will do this and will do that, show me his past record displaying those qualities. Show me where he has stood up to the swaying opinion of the voters to do the right thing. Show me where he has stood against the onslaught of the democrats to get done what was need to be done.

I like Cain, but lets be honest here.Just because someone has been in politics for some time does not mean they are “status quo” or that they can not or have not done the right things nor does one being a pizza CEO who ran the business right and had the full support of all who were invested in the business will do the right thing in the world of politics. Business and politics are two very different things and it takes different mindsets to operate successfully in the two. Balancing the budget of a business, hiring a few people into the right positions, cutting waste, etc is much different than trying to do what needs to be done in the government especially when you add in the opposition that will come from the other side and the voters who listen to talking points of the left.

He may be the right guy, my mind is not made up yet, but lets not act as if he has any proven record of conservatism or that his tenure at the pizza shop translates into real world government experience or that he will do the right thing should he be elected.

Alan West is a prime example. Still like the guy, still respect him. But his tacit support of Trump’s nonsense and his now proclaimed belief that now is not the time to strip funding of Obamacare shows that his rhetoric did not match his deeds and it shows his brilliant military career proved nothing when it came to what he would do in office.

gpclaw

I like Cain too. He has a great story – humble beginnings, extremely well educated, and made the most of his talents. But a great story doesn’t necessarily mean a great politician. His background, especially his time at the KC Fed and his past as a lobbyist for the National Restaurant Association.

Cain does have some experience in politics. Newt appointed Cain to his Economic Growth and Tax Reform Commission in ’95. He also served as an advisor for Bob Dole’s Presidential campaign.

He looks good, but it’s too soon to know if there are any skeleton’s laying in the closet.
powertothepeople

is right on. I am also not willing to state that he will not practice what he preaches. I am also not willing to go as far as saying what experience he has could not translate into real world government expertise. But what I am saying is that there is no real proven record so for anyone to state that he WILL do something is just not factual.

Now not saying I do not like Cain, I have been listening to him for years. A friend of mine many years ago introduced me to him while I lived in MI. He lived in GA and gave me the internet address to listen to him.I turned many people on to him over the years. But even with that, I am quite worried that his lack of experience may come back to hurt us when and if he is elected and he gets punched in the face with DC politics. There is a big difference between making pizza work and making scumbags do what you need them to do. I am also a little worried that Cain is becoming our Obama in that we want to show we are not racist, that we are excited at the chance to put a minority in office, and that we think rhetoric is better than record. What we should be doing is voting color blind, only voting for who is the best in our opinion regardless of color or sex. I just get a little worried when he makes comments about returning to a fiat standard and if he buys into that nonsense, what will he do on other things.
gpclaw

Some words were chopped off of my first paragraph. Let’s try this again:

His background, especially his time at the KC Fed and his past as a lobbyist for the National Restaurant Association need to be vetted so we know what were getting.

Their are plenty of CEO’s who talk a good game about the free market, but in the end love cronyism..

I agree with you. Someone who knows how the game is played, is going to have a better shot at getting things done. No matter how good of a staff he surrounds himself with, he will still be at a disadvantage. I would hate to see the agenda get derailed because the next chief executive needs time to get his feet wet.

I would be willing to get behind someone with out the experience, but that standard is going to be set higher. If I only find Cain just a little better than the next guy, I will probably take a pass.
lineholder

Regardless of the questions that any of us here might have about his experience or lack thereof, he’s proven himself to be exceptionally astute and intelligent in the approach he is taking.

One of the strongest polling patterns for public opinion has been the “right track vs. wrong track” polls, with the numbers staying high on the “wrong track” side of the spectrum for over a year, going on two years now. Cain is tapping into that by presenting that our nation is on the “wrong track”. Any one who has listened to him present his message and vision as to where our nation goes from here knows that this is the kind of message he has.

Given that the polling results have run anywhere from 55% (RCP) to 70% (Rasmussen), he’s putting himself into a position of appealing to a broad spectrum of voters that extends beyond just conservatives. His message could easily resonate with a lot of potential voters.

He’s left himself open to being able to present his “wrong track” message in the context of fiscal issues, social issues, socioeconomic issues, or any combination thereof.

What’s more, given that these trends have remained consistent for as long as they have, it could be a difficult message for Dems to combat.

It’s a very intelligent approach, given the political environment that exists right now, and it will be interesting to see how the general public responds to it as he gains exposure.
lineholder

there could very well be far more validity to the hypothesis you’ve presented than any of us might be considering right now.

For my own part, when I look at Herman Cain, I don’t see the color of the man’s skin. What I see is the kind of man that I believe I could be proud to call my President. To even come close to having a chance to beat Obama, he has significant obstacles to overcome, such as name recognition, electability concerns, etc. Even among Repubs, he gets discredited from even being a valid candidate (for a lot of different reasons, some valid, some not so valid) I couldn’t help but wonder how people outside my normal realm of existence were responding to him.

A few weeks ago, I decided to do a little research. What I found out surprised me. There are specific trends and dynamics developing in certain sectors of our population, and if these trends continue to move in the same direction as they have been…it just changes a lot of things in ways that we may not have considered as being possible.

I don’t know how those trends might translate in Cain’s favor, but I do recognize that they could.
gawken

Just finished reading the thread, and I’m surprised at how many comments IGNORED the point I was trying to make: simply that Cain has a good cgance to win the GOP nomination on the merits of what he believes, and if that happens, it’s interesting to begin to wonder how having two black men running could affect the black vote. I think it’s a BIG net gain for the GOP across the board.
WillisNYC

than the ones generated by my diary post which explored the same theme that gawken has posted.

http://www.redstate.com/willisnyc/2011/05/07/the-liberal-nightmare/

Cain is a fabulous communicator, Reaganesque if I may. He has yet to state a single position that I could not support and I am as rock ribbed a constitutional conservative as they come. HIs ideas are the stuff that a true constitutional conservative can get behind and give full throated enthusiastic support. He would repeal Obamacare and reform our distorted, morally repugnant tax system. I heard him speak about why income taxes are morally wrong long before I knew who he was and it was simply the best explanation I have ever heard. I wish I had a link to his radio broadcast when he explained it, because I was hooked from the moment of that simple explanation. Getting rid of the IRS is an idea that nearly EVERY American can get behind. These ideas appeal hugely to the GOP electorate and would electrify them as no one has since Reagan. These two simple themes would easily carry the day against Obama. Now if only the GOP establishment would dare to dream of actually BEING conservative instead of pretending to be: the result would be amazing.

renny

I am concerned about someone not knowing how the arcane rules of the Sen. impact legislation, how the bureaucracy gets around a president and every one else, and how the power in-fighting among cabinet offices and agencies can destroy a presidency.

When the nominee choice comes, I am going to send money, work for the Rep. Headquarters here, and vote the the Rep. pres. candidate. Until then, I am concerned that we have an electable and productive person in charge.

zooboy

As Erick alluded, they would pull a few % of the clueless middle who vote based on “identity politics” of race/gender. Another “historic” election result: the first full black Pres, and the first woman Veep!
A genuine Washington outsider, and one of the very rare insiders who has remained truly and unabashedly conservative.
RED Meat to fire up us Basers; anti-establishment enough to get many populists/ independent voters.
YES WE CAN nominate Cain if we vote as a bloc.
http://www.plumbbobblog.com Plumb_Bob

Government experience is exactly the wrong thing for the current crisis. The fiscal crisis in which we find ourselves is the predicted, natural crisis produced by a government culture. To expect a member of that culture to fix it is to expect foxes to choose to stop eating hens.

Cain has precisely the experience we do need for the current crisis: experience exercising fiscal discipline, obtained from a source outside politics.

Just for the record, though, nobody who’s reached the apex of an organization like Godfather’s Pizza has done it without learning how politics are played. Cain can hire Washington experience if he needs it, but it won’t be all that unfamiliar to him.

powertothepeople

I like Cain, but it is a very different world in business than it is politics.

A CEO can basically do what he wants to fix things and as long as it works, he will have everyone’s support. The president will face constant opposition and will get less than half of what he wants.

Second, the difference in budgets, amount, expenditures. etc is vastly different that what goes on in a business. Dealing with the two is no where close to the same and he gained little real political experience or know how from being a pizza king.

He does have some experience in government, he may do fine, he may be the right guy, but lets stop with the CEO of Pizza shop makes him ready because it just is not true. There is no comparison between the workings of Pillsbury’s GodFather Pizza its budget, and how the government works and its budget. One is tough but you have the support of most everyone, the other is an enormous nightmare where you get the support of few.

gpclaw

That in business, everyone in the organization is working towards the same goal – to produce the best possible product, as efficiently as possible in order to maximize profitability. Their are no competing ideologies at work, and no horse trading.

Business skills can be helpful when trying to decide policy, but irrelevant at getting policy ideas passed into legislation.
Doc Holliday

Doc Holliday

http://www.nighttwister.com NightTwister

The primary goal of running a business is to grow the business, to expand it as far as the market will allow. The role of government should be to reduce its size down to only its essential functions. Business executive exprerience is actually at odds with properly running the government.

http://908StraightSt.wordpress.com/ mbecker908

His business experience is exactly the anthesis of his failure as MA governor. He worked not to roll back the reach of government but to expand it more efficiently. The very last thing we need. Cut fraud and abuse? Sure. But do it by cutting the programs out all together.

lineholder

that I think a lot of people are looking at right now.

In the context of data that has been obtained by polls, one of the most consistent poll results over and over again has been “right track vs. wrong track” poll. The results have stayed high on the “wrong track” side for months on end (around 60% at RCP, 70% at Rasmussen).

We have some candidates on the R side (and Romney is one of them) who seem to think they can rely on name recognition or experience, yet present a message that they will continue to lead us down the same path we’ve been on (except the outcomes will be better than it would be if the Dems are doing it), and somehow expect this to be enough to get them elected.

When someone like Romney indicates this message….I’m with you. Continuing down this path is dumber than dirt, It isn’t what our nation genuinely needs right now. Forget it. Wrong track. No way. I’m not interested.

I have my share of questions (and then some) about outlier candidates like Cain, but I will say this for the man…he has picked up on this plurality of “right track vs. wrong track” data in a way that no other potential candidate has presented so far, and he is doing well presenting his message and vision within that context. It’s turning out to be a very intelligent move on his part at this point.

silentcal2012

First, business experience is executive experience. Career legislators, lawyers and community organizers have never run large organizations make poor executive. History proves this.

Also, business experience, while it may be a loose term, means many things. You said they want to grow their business, but pols want to grow the American GDP as well.

It also depends on what kind of business experience. People can knock Romney, but he doesn’t just have expereince. He founded and created a business that created and saved businesses. People dont understand private equity firms. It was his business to understand how regulations, litigation, and red tape stifle business. What types of management models work. How to obtain resources and capital for businesses…. I dont know as much about Herman Cain, but business experience certainly helps. I wish the guy in the White House had some.
silentcal2012

First, business experience is executive experience. Career legislators, lawyers and community organizers have never run large organizations make poor executive. History proves this.

Also, business experience, while it may be a loose term, means many things. You said they want to grow their business, but pols want to grow the American GDP as well.

It also depends on what kind of business experience. People can knock Romney, but he doesn’t just have expereince. He founded and created a business that created and saved businesses. People dont understand private equity firms. It was his business to understand how regulations, litigation, and red tape stifle business. What types of management models work. How to obtain resources and capital for businesses…. I dont know as much about Herman Cain, but business experience certainly helps. I wish the guy in the White House had some.
lineholder

in favor of expanding government just because of his business experience? If that is the case, then you haven’t listened to what he is actually saying.

He has said that he sees government as being too large, and that government regulations provide mechanisms that stifle growth and development in our economy, that these should be reduced and/or eliminated.

From that viewpoint, Night Twister, his experience within the realm of private sector business does have both worth and value, because he is likely to be very knowledgeable about identifying what types of regulatory programs do the most damage economically and how this can be corrected and prevented.

Cain is an outlier candidate at this point, and I’ve read enough of what you’ve written to understand the concerns you have and why you have those concerns. I have my share of questions as well. But please don’t make assumptions about his position without actually researching the facts of what he has said.

http://908StraightSt.wordpress.com/ mbecker908

He’s talking about making government “more efficient”. That’s not the same as smaller. Or less intrusive. Or eliminating departments. Just spending less to do the same thing.

Romney is a good businessman. He was a crappy governor who simply gave the Democrats in MA what they wanted. I see nothing in his history or his modus operandi that indicates he’s going to reduce the size and scope of government.
silentcal2012

If you think he gave Massachusetts Democrats everything they wanted, you dont know Massachusetts Democrats. Just check out Patrick’s Medical Unification Board plan for one, ot the transgenendered bathroom bill for another.

Besides MA govs are not that powerful like they are in NJ. All the power in MA lies with the speaker of the house, and liberals had super-majorities in both chambers. Romney could initiate or pass anything. Not that he’s great. But I am more interested in what a candidate will do than I am in the past.
http://908StraightSt.wordpress.com/ mbecker908

they will do in the future. Romney is nothing more than a compassionate conservative on the cheap.
lineholder

you responded to a comment I made about Cain. So I’m going to ask…do you think Cain is taking the same approach? And I mean this in the context of trying to gain information, becker, so any info you have to present will be appreciated.
http://908StraightSt.wordpress.com/ mbecker908

My bad.

Now then, as far as what approach Cain will take, I have no clue. I’m willing to listen to what he’s got to say, unlike Romney who I don’t ever need to hear from again.

My issue with private sector v. pubic executive is simple. In the private sector the org chart is a pyramid. When the guy at the top makes a decision he is right to expect the organization below him to act accordingly and to put aside personal agendas to implement the policy. If that doesn’t happen, the private sector CEO can and is within his rights to separate the offending employee from the company and replace him with someone who will implement the policy.

On the government side, there is no pyramid, it’s a flat line (pun intended). The President must deal with other elected officials who see their loyalty to the voters (actually it’s to themselves) not the CEO. And the CEO has no power to separate the offending elected official. The buck stops nowhere.

It’s for that reason that I question whether private experience is a good baseline for public sector experience.
lineholder

And I’ve seen the dynamics you’re speaking of here in action. It’s very much so a top-down, micromanaging mentality. Also agree with what you’ve expressed regarding government’s inability to follow the top-down mentality of private sector (without getting into a dictatorship).

At the same time, I’ve seen others on high management levels in business who follow more of the team approach. They are exceptionally good at delegating responsibilities to those under that authority. They value the strengths that each individual brings to the team. And they have a way of pulling from those strengths to contribute to the success of the organization as a whole. These managers tend to be extremely capable of setting goals and accomplishing and achieving those goals.

But where Cain truly falls along that spectrum is the question at hand that will have to be determined.
http://908StraightSt.wordpress.com/ mbecker908

in the private sector even people with personal agendas (ie: I want to be top dog) share the goal of maximizing shareholder value and profit. Not that way in the public sector. Some people want to expand the role of government, some want it to contract. If you’re the President and you want to contract the role of government you’ll have to deal, and deal effectively, with those on the other side of the aisle.

Bottom line, Romney didn’t do it in Massachusetts and I don’t see any evidence he even tried. As you note, the book is still open on Cain.

belcatar

I can understand the need for an experienced person taking the reins of government, but so far, those with experienced have failed all of us miserably. The last few years have shown unequivocally that experienced people are simply better at gaming the system. Their experience is largely employed at squeezing the most money, power and influence they can out of their respective elected offices.

If I have to choose between experience, which is essentially a kind way of describing Washington corruption, and integrity, I’ll go with integrity.

If we could find a candidate with both, that candidate would probably win. Not only that, we’d have a President we could be proud of for the first time in decades.
cordpt

vs. Obama? 10%. top.

Cain would struggle to break 40% of the popular vote. He’d probably lose 54%-43%, something like that.

Cain should run for Congress in 2012 and I’d like to see him considering a primary run against Saxby Chambliss after that.

YnotNOW

You had better have a good reason for that pessimistic a prediction.

akafroman

We don’t want to vote for Cain because he is black; we want to vote for him because he electable. He has 40 years executive experience, no political baggage, and is very socially conservative. Him being black is just a nice bonus because it negates Obama’s biggest asset in the 08 election.

http://travismonitor.blogspot.com Freedoms Truth

“He has 40 years executive experience, no political baggage, and is very socially conservative. Him being black is just a nice bonus because it negates Obama

http://barbershopvalues.com daconia

That is my 2012 election guidance, Anybody but Obama!!
Of course, Mr. Cain would be great in my opinion, and is one of many who would landslide the current President.
victrola

Even when we’ve had Black Republicans up against White Democrats, the White Democrat still gets around 90% of the black vote. We have examples like Lynn Swann in Pennsylvania and Ken Blackwell in Ohio to look at to see that this strategy is hardly a silver bullet. I would be willing to bet a Democrat like the late Robert Byrd in West Virginia (a former Klansman) would even get a majority of black voters against a black Republicans.

How many additional votes from African-Americans do you think George W. Bush got for having Colin Powell and Condoleeza Rice in his Cabinet? Answer:around zero.

I’m not saying we shouldn’t try and appeal to African-Americans (we absolutely should) but I don’t think we should push candidates purely because of skin color because it just doesn’t get the votes we’re trying to chase, and we often times promote candidates that aren’t qualified (see Alan Keyes for an example) And sometimes you have politicians simply playing us to promote themselves (see Colin Powell for an example) I like Herman Cain, but I can GUARANTEE you Obama would still get 90% plus of the African-American vote if Cain was our nominee.

If the GOP is going to try and broaden its appeal, chasing after the African-American vote is the most futile. Reagan Democrats in the Rust Belt and Midwest and Hispanics in the Southwest are the real key to electoral victory. Start there, and work your way down the list with the low hanging fruit first.
http://theheartlander.wordpress.com/ heartlander

Bingo.
barleycorn

Whether GWB got more black votes as a result of Powell and Rice is not a useful way to judge whether appointing Powell and Rice had a positive effect on the relationship between black Americans and the GOP.

Tragically the Democrat Party has done few things as well as they have convinced black Americans that the Republican Party is evil. We can argue endlessly about Abe Lincoln and how the Democrats ran the old segregated South, and how Republican’s voted in higher proportion for the Civil Rights Act than Democrats, until we are blue in the face and it won’t change anything.

The only thing that will work is the passage of time combined with honest efforts to reach out and convince black Americans that the conservative principles of individual freedom and individual responsibility is their natural home. A great example of this is the so-called “Reagan Democrats”.

For roughly 50 years that demographic voted solid Democrat but beginning with the 1972 election some began to move toward the GOP. Carter briefly won some of them back but then Reagan pretty much permanently brought them home to the Republican Party.

Attitudes don’t change so much as they die. As each new generation become adults and replace their great-grandparents in the voting booth, I think you will begin to see some movement away from old fears and animosities.
Michael Dugas

or run of the mill GOP who would vote for Cain just because he is an American of African descent. If he were to win the nomination I would vote for him because a majority of his views are in line with mine.
I am also hoping that, from what I have seen, he is a good communicator who can get conservative view points across in an understandable manner. It’s an over used cliche but a communicator in a Reaganesque fashion is what we desperately need. I could care less if he was green.
http://travismonitor.blogspot.com Freedoms Truth

Correct. The idea that a black candidate who is Republican will do better among african-Americans has rarely panned out.

The REAL promise of Cain is that he has a lifetime of experience OUTSIDE of politics, he can bring his skills to the table on behalf of “We The People”. The Tea Party is begging to have citizen-leaders and Washington outsiders to wrest DC from the elites and get back to basics.

What’s even better though is his humble beginnings and his background speak of a real person who cannot be pidgeonholed. His skin color will, if nothing else, step all over the phony narrative that Obama used to win a bunch of guilty-white-liberal votes. There will be some swing votes ready to swing back with a clear message on a better economy.

Freedom and fixing the economy – that’s how Reagan won in 1980 and it can work again, with the right candidate.

Herman Cain is the man.
Cain is the closest thing to Reagan running in our primary … a primary full of Lamar and Dole wannabes.

Stand up and be an AmeriCAIN.
mtm0422a

I think you’re right that changing the minds in the Rust Belt, Midwest, Southwest are easier and better electorally, but I pray that I live to see the day when the urban or African American vote is not monolithic. Jack Kemp said off the cuff in 1996 that he wanted to win every state including Washington DC. I don’t know anything about Swann’s campaign, but Ken Blackwell’s presence in northern Ohio was minimal when he ran for Governor because (as it says in the Ohio Republican handbook) he concentrated on the southern and rural base.

Conservatives need to get to the inner cities and argue that more often than not, 1) liberal policies fail and 2) conservative policies work. I would say that Jack Kemp spoke more strongly and passionately to black audiences than Colin Powell, Condi Rice, or Ken Blackwell. If over the next year Herman Cain can talk like Jack Kemp to urban audiences, then Democrats better be afraid. The last thing they want is for Herman Cain to have that pulpit for the following four years!
renny

Definitely. But we need a banner bearer that can win independents, pull over Dems. from the middle, and get all the grumpy Reps. to the polling booth.
zooboy

With O’s henchmen already gearing up for the first 1 Billion=1000 Million-dollar Presidential campaign in history, our number of landslide-producing candidates can be counted on 1 hand with probably all the fingers missing. Making it all the more important that we choose VERY wisely.
Maybe we should start a new thread on how conservatives can avoid another Florida 2008 Primary DISASTER. Which sealed our fate with McCain as our sacrificial lamb candidate. Deja vu Dole ’96.
victrola

since the Republican Party ended slavery and it was actually Democrat politicians that were supporters of Jim Crow, poll taxes, segregation, etc. More Republicans actually voted for the Civil Rights Act than Democrats did.

The real turning point was after the New Deal and then after the Great Society (I would argue this has done more to destroy the black community than any drug) Democrats were able to buy off the black vote.

The Democrats’ share of the black vote has nowhere to go but down, and with time it probably will, but there seems to be an absolute obsession with conservatives to peel off black voters, that somehow our key an electoral lock is through this one small demographic. Sorry, but it’s just not going to happen anytime soon. I’d rather focus our attention to groups that will be more receptive.

The best way to capture the black vote is to simply make that community not depend on government handout by ending racial preferences and Great Society-type programs. It may be painful at first, but the worst nightmare of liberals is for individuals to become self-sufficient.
20jan2013

there is a consistent theme that comes up.

1. It is not Obama’s fault (“it” being the bad economy, any issue really that is bad).

2. They claim to vote for the best person regardless of skin color, so the fact that Herman Cain is black matters zero to them and the fact he is a Republican matters a lot.

You can believe or disbelieve, but this is what I hear, and they believe what they are saying. Whether they are deluding themselves or not, I think there is a small fraction of the black voting population that is deluding themselves about this but not many.

The last thing I want to do is engage in some twisted affirmative action quota scheme for the cynical purpose of trying to peel off black voters with a black man. The only candidate we should be putting forth to peel off black voters is the candidate we are putting forth to peel off EVERY voter from supporting Barack Obama–a solid conservative who will get our country back on track. If that happens to be Herman Cain, great. But his race should NOT be a factor.

RACE SHOULD NOT BE A FACTOR IN DETERMINING THE BEST CANDIDATE FOR PRESIDENT! SCREW AFFIRMATIVE ACTION!

I can’t believe I’m reading all this talk. I’ve been guilty of it in recent weeks, but I see the light now.
http://impudent.edublogs.org/ kyle8

If Herman Cain gets to become one of the top three front runners for the nomination, at that point the cries of UNCLE TOM will start to sing out loud and clear.

Every rapper, every jackass celebrity, and everyone on MSNBC will be either saying Uncle Tom, or some other code words.
akafroman

Is it a good idea for the media to continually call some of the most successful men in our country “uncle tom’s”.

Herman Cain- CEO- self-made millionaire- potential POTUS

Clarence Thomas- Judge on US Supreme Court

Allen West- Lt. Colonel- Congressman
Bill S
rightwardmarch

A warning, I’m about to be impolite and say some things that “shouldn’t” be said, but if we are going to discuss the racial implications of a Hermain Cain candidacy, let’s at least be accurate.

Yes, Cain might pull some black voters. I think he could at least make them look at him with a more open mind than they would give almost any other Republican candidate. But what’s the ultimate hope here, getting 15% of the black vote? 20%? A dream scenario would be 25% and that is incredibly unlikely. But we need to start by quantifying the upside of the racial politics in a Cain candidacy, and the topline is a swing of 1% of the total electorate.

And the downside? Its much, much larger. Now, its hard to see it from the Redstate reader’s perspective. Political junkies, watching the debate, checking out past speeches. In that light Herman looks great. But to understand the real implications to Hermain Cain’s race in the election, you have to take a step back, and forget some of what you know.

Me-too-ism is never an impressive attribute, and in these trying times it looks even worse. Is there a more damning epithet than Democrat-lite? Don’t kid yourself, that is exactly what people will see (and be told) when they look at Herman Cain. The impression of me-too Democrat wanna-be-ism is the fastest road to the deactivation of the Tea party supporters who will be key to providing both votes and support for Republican candidate’s campaign. And without those supporters, without that energy, the Presidency is as good as lost.

Furthermore, and at the cost of being crude. We all know that there is a broad swathe of the electorate that has a strong distaste for Obama. In particular a distrust about his American bona-fides and his belief in America the exceptional. And many, like-it-or-not, connect that visceral feeling with his race. These people are not the racists depicted in the cartoons of the left, they don’t wear hoods and they don’t hate “the blacks”. But they do know they don’t like Obama and unfortunately they generalize that feeling too freely. Its a natural, albeit unfortunate, thing humans do but if we are speaking crudely it is a truth should be acknowledged, not ignored. And that voter is lost – they won’t vote – in a Barack Obama-Herman Cain general election.

So let’s be honest about the race thing. Race is huge impediment to the electability of Herman Cain, largely because his opponent is Obama. On the plus side, maybe he could flip a portion of the black vote, but at an absolute maximum that would amount to 1% of the total vote. Unforunately, the down-side due to absent base voters and de-energized supporters dwarfs that positive.
acat

And I have to say it’s nice to do so. Yes, a Cain candidacy will not – by itself – shatter the African-American voting bloc.

It will, however, cause severe head-exploding cognitive dissonance on the part of every white liberal who thinks the GOP must be racists.

Mew
acat

Have a look over here:

http://www.redstate.com/willisnyc/2011/05/07/the-liberal-nightmare/

Specifically:

http://www.redstate.com/willisnyc/2011/05/07/the-liberal-nightmare/#comment-48

The discussion there reminded this cat that we’ve got a long way to go toward understanding one another.

Mew
akafroman

It is pretty insulting to “a broad swathe” of Americans to assume that the tea party fervor will collapse without racial tension. In modern day America, racists are fringe, not the mainstream voter who we should fear if
lineholder

To meet you honesty with some honesty of my own, your blanket generalizations of how people will respond to Cain’s race are insulting, and I’m as white as the new born snow.

The greatest comparison between Cain and Obama would be of character and love of country. Period. If you haven’t taken the time to evaluate Cain in the light, perhaps you should.
gawken

I’ve always enjoyed “Criminal Minds” Midseason this year, CBS did a spin-off, starring Garofalo ( gawd) as an FBI profiler.. and it was just awful. They just canned it..
rightwardmarch

I think the Tea Party is just as racist on average as the rest of America, which incidentally is quite a bit less than people almost anywhere else on earth. If you take that as a slam on the tea party, then I think you’re just trying to PC over human nature.

I agree that the few truly racist voters in the deep south (and elsewhere, by the way) can be ignored with little consequence. But not the many others, the non-racists that are perhaps a little bit racial in their thinking, that will see Cain as a Republican me-too candidate and just not find the time to vote.
msctex

n/t
msctex

. . .were Cain the (R) candidate, it would force political scientists to recognize and label the resulting split in the Black vote: what we would call the “Gimme” portion, versus what they would call the “Uncle Tom” portion. The resulting semantic struggle might prove hilarious.
williamjameson

As a delegate for four months spread over 2 years One could could his military record too since military leaders deal with politicians. Sure the country has changed. Regardless Cain isn’t a bad choice when experience is considered because his time running District 10 gives Cain a little experience dealing with politicians and gov issues. Not exactly the same as political experience but worthy of consideration plus Cain took on Bill Clinton in debate and we all know Cain won..

Those of you who like Governor Chris Christie seem to overlook his lack of executive experience similar to Mitt Romney’s one term stint as governor. Don’t most Romney fans count his corporate experience as being worthy, the same for Donald Trump fans, right? Let’s not forget Sarah Palin.

Seems to me like democrats, many on the right are moving towards less experienced candidates. So the real question becomes what’s really wrong with an outsider and how long before such a candidate becomes an insider. Potus’s are expected to work for all of us, not to be the extremist partisan like Obama. So is now the time to shake up DC and actually elect someone who may not become a Dem-lite politician like Bush.

One man decides based on cabinet advise as well as advisors and party leaders shape political decisions. Obama pretty much ignores his cabinet only to listen to people from his past and a few advisors. Does anyone think Herman Cain would make the same mistakes as Obama? Look at Cain from another perspective, we’ve got plenty of time to analyze his true qualities.

Seems to me those who like the 3 out of 4 potential candidates mentioned above may find Cain to be close enough as time wears on. I removed Chris Christie since he’s not interested.

RS

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Why the Democrats may fear Herman Cain most of all, ( or what % of the black vote could he peel away from Obama?)

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