Contemplating a scenario in which Obama decides NOT to run again
It’s been a bad few weeks for Obama, ending with his first drop BELOW 40% in the approval ratings. He’s been taking hits from the left wing for months, of late with increased frequency and vitriol. Worse, he’s been the butt of jokes from the left wing. There’s even been some talk that he needs to have a primary opponent.
Well, that’s just not going to happen. And for one reason, albeit a really big one: The BLACK VOTE. In 2008 Obama got out the black vote in record numbers, and about 93% voted for him. Today, as his poll numbers sink, the overwhelming majority of those who still think that he’s doing a good job, are Black.
A failed primary challenge to Obama would weaken the Dem party at best; at worst, tear it apart, and just about assure defeat in November.
A successful primary challenge would, in effect be a kamikaze mission, because the black vote would stay home on election day, and the Dems would suffer a staggering loss.
No, there is only ONE viable path for the Dems to get rid of Obama, and that is if he decides not to run again.
Whether that occurs by his own choice, because he’s unwilling to face a Carter-like repudiation, or because the party elders convince him not to run, remains to be seen. Regardless, it’s a viable scenario, and oddly enough, one that holds the BEST promise tfor the Democrats to possibly pull out a victory.
Let’s fast forward to next May. The economy isn’t any better, the jobs numbers have worsened. The GOP has already unified around the nominee. Polling indicates that Obama is going to lose, the GOP will gain seats in the House, and is an all but certain lock to take the Senate.
The Dems have nothing to lose. Either they fold, take their lumps, or roll the dice.
Once the decision is made, by next May, that Obama will not run again, they have to develop the script:
1. A withdrawal for “health reasons” ( not likely..the public isn’t that stupid), or ( most likely)
2. He does an LBJ..withdraws for the good of the country and the party
They’ll need a good six weeks to work this..milk it for maximum value, to present Obama as somehow noble and above the fray, unwilliing to risk further damage to the nation because those evil Tea Party Republicans won’t work wih him, so blind and obsessive is their hatred for all things Obama. It’s what the Dems do, and do very well, in conjunction with their friends and allies in the MSM.
So it will then be an “open” Democrat convention the first week in September, and in the weeks leading up to it, we will see report after report of state delegations committing to Hillary C linton. She will be nominated unanimously. Bill Clinton will re-emerge onto the national political stage as the senior statesman of the Democrat party, her biggest advisor, and her “unofficial” campaign manager. Once again, the nation will get “two for the price of one.”
It will be a MSM circus of epic proportions. The GOP will find it very hard to get its message out. The GOP convention will play second fiddle to the Clintons.
The beauty of this is that there is NO risk to the Democrats whatsoever.
1. They were going to lose, and lose badly, with Obama. They can’t do any worse, and could end up doing far better.
2. The real winners here are the Clintons. Hillary always hoped for another shot, but realistically, 2016 was too far off. When she ran in 2008, she had to distance hersef from Bill, for multiple reasons. Here, riding to the rescue of the country and the party, responding to the clarion call to help , she can embrace Bill, trot him out, openly say that he’ll be a co-president, and that she’ll do her best to return the country to the levels of prosperity when Bubba was in the Oval Office. And if she loses the election, well, it won’t be her fault..she tried, she did her best, but she inherited far to difficult a situation.
3. The black vote will not defect. They’ll come out in response to the man who was, in reality, the “first” black president.
The MSM will have a collective political orgasm,actually, multiple ones, lasting until Election Day. ‘We” are saved! Hallelujah!! The $$$ will flow in to the Democrats, engulfing the campaign like Katrina swallowed New Orleans.
There is only ONE question left for the Dems to decide: who will be the pick for VP?