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Why Romney is all but finished…..

By: gawken (Diary)  |  November 15th, 2011 at 06:02 PM  | 

RESIZE: AAA

For months now, we’ve been told by the MSM  that the GOP primary process is a forgone conclusion: that Romney will be the nominee. But since 80% of us aren’t just going gently into those primary nights, we’re also told that the sole reason for the current GOP primary kerfluffle is to figure out who will be the ani-Mitt, the last candidate standing, and the one who will ultimately concede victory to Mitt.

In reality, there’s a very good chance that coming into super Tuesday, there will be two or three top tier GOP candidates still standing, and that Mitt won’t be one of them.

Over the past months, as the polls of several candidates: Newt, Perry, Cain, Bachmann, have yo-yoed, Mitt’s numbers have stayed very constant. He’s stuck in the low 20′s. That appears to be his ceiling.

When several candidates have experienced doublde digit DROPS ion their polls over a few weeks’ time, Mitt has shown no ability to attract any of the support that has peeled away from other candidates.

In six weeks, we begin the early primary trifecta: Iowa, NH, and S. Carolina. Right now, Mitt’s not doing well.

He will come out of Iowa a weak 3rd and possibly a 4th place finisher. In NH, where he all but a favorite son, he’s been stuck at 40%, and as interest increases in that state, it’s more likely that his numbers will drop. If Mitt can’t manage a majority in NH, and has to settle for a close plurality, that doesn’t say much about his chances.

And now we come to South Carolina, the first state that is truly representative of the GOP base. He’s heading for a 3rd palce finish, and 4th place is still within striking  distance.

Since 1980, S. Carolina has always picked the eventual GOP nominee. At some time, in a close contests, they’ll get it wrong, but no way a weak 3rd or 4th place finisher  can be the nominee.

Mitt has money, no doubt about that, but much of it will be spent in the next 2 months, and as he  fails to close the deal, not even come close,  in each of the first three states, the money will start to dry up.

Mitt’s done…

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  • superpatriot

    The GOP and conservative base does not want Romney, as he will most certainly lead to 4 more years of Obama.

    It will be very interesting to see how Perry, Cain, and Gingrich do in the next few weeks. Of all the three, Perry seems to be the only one who has created credible plans for the economy and jobs.

    I really don’t think Cain’s 999 will go past 12-12-12.

  • nathanalbright

    …if and when Romney realizes that he’s not going to be the nominee of the Republican party just because he’s “next in line.”

    • pttx333

      and in need of yet another trophy for the mantle, he would see that is he never going to win. I truly believe that he thinks he can just waltz into 1600 with his money.

      Gee, can’t waste all the time and effort he has expended for those “charm” lessons, can he?

      • nathanalbright

        …that refuses to rest. If that burning ambition is centered around service, then it is acceptable. If it is based on one’s achievements, even if one gets them, there is a sense of loneliness and futility about it.

  • pttx333

    even offering himself to assist others. Everything is about him. If he spent just a tenth of the time he has blown while running for the presidency all these years in some sort of humane endeavor, it would be different. But I have never read or heard of such a thing. All he does is campaign, even when there isn’t a race in which to run. Shallow man, he. Maybe that follows the line from the Bible (paraphrasing here) that it is “easier for a camel to go through the eye of a needle than for a rich man to go to heaven.” You know what I mean – you’re the expert on that. ;-)

    • nathanalbright

      There’s also the story of the rich fool who rejoices over his rich harvest (not thinking of what to give to others) who tears down his barns and tries to build bigger ones only to be told by God that his life will be required that day, and what will happen to all of his wealth. That makes for sobering reading from a political perspective as well.

      At any rate, many of us (myself included) won’t buy into a candidate until we can really respect the man. As interested as I am in political platforms I have to believe that someone is truly honorable and genuine for me to support him. I am willing to tolerate differences of opinion, but if I cannot respect someone, I cannot support them wholeheartedly if they are an office seeker.

      • circlegranch

        if he seriously is considering Cain as his VP. As someone that has worked hard to set himself above the fray, For Newt to even suggest taking on a project more complicated and gaffe-prone than Joe Biden shows he’s simply pandering and trying to capture Cain’s supporters. He’s no longer the smartest guy in the race. If Newt is so brilliantly enlightened politically, why would he box himself in and offer the tease of picking Cain? Does he really believe that a pair of guys with baggage regarding both the real and possibly real claims of being disrespectful to women are going to fly as a tag team in the general election?

        • nathanalbright

          …not as any kind of serious consideration. Quite honestly, I don’t think Cain has shown himself worthy of any cabinet locations, though I’d be tempted to make him the Ambassador to Ubeki-beki-beki-stan (i.e. Uzbekistan) so at least he could find Central Asia on the map and get some understanding of Central Asia.

  • pttx333

    story you reference, but there are many wonderful morality lessons in the Bible. What people don’t understand is that you don’t have to be an evangelical or a radical religious nut (as “they” say) to learn from those lessons. I’ve read through the Bible several times down through the years (Sunday School mostly). Funny thing, though, even when I was a kid, I would raise my hand in Sunday School to question some of the things that were taught as the “gospel” which struck a wrong chord with me. A story along that line stands out vividly:

    We were reading about when Noah was drunk and naked and Ham, his son, mocked and scorned him, telling his brothers of it. We read the passages then the SS teacher asked what was the sin there. I raised my hand (was maybe 10) and said “that Ham mocked and laughed at his father” while the brothers helped their father. She said “No, the sin was that Noah was drunk.” I didn’t agree then, and don’t to this very day. Not that Noah should have been drunk, but that Ham should have helped him also and not been disrespectful.

    Agree with you that it is only an honorable man who will get my vote. And I see no one on that stage (man or woman) who fits the bill for me other than Perry.

    Feel free to correct me on the Noah story. That wss about 61 years ago! HA

    • avagreen

      …..not “gospel”.

      The parable of the Rich Fool is easily found in Luke 12:16-21.

      • nathanalbright

        for publishing the scriptural reference. I blogged at some length about that parable myself :B.

        And I agree that while Noah should not have gotten drunk, the real sin was Ham’s (and Canaan’s). The Hebrew suggests something even more unpleasant was afoot (which is what got both Ham and Canaan a divine curse), but it apparently involves (if you cross reference Leviticus 18) Ham and/or Canaan “uncovering the nakedness of Noah” by committing some sort of offense with Noah’s wife. At any rate, your teacher didn’t appear to know enough about the Bible to give a good exegesis of the story.

        • pttx333

          as a child it didn’t sit right with me, and I’ve never changed my mind on it. In fact, it was unheard of to dispute one’s Sunday School teacher! LOL Guess I was a stinker as a kid – just like I am today. If it doesn’t sit well with my personal brain computer, I ain’t buyin’ it. Suppose it wouldn’t be easy to brainwash me.

          Thanks to the both of you … love discussing these matters. I couldn’t remember which book contained the scripture, but I darn well remember that Sunday. She was rather snippy with me from that day forward. Her loss.

          • nathanalbright

            …is in Genesis 10:20-29, right at the beginning of the Bible. Noah’s story is popular with Sunday School teachers, but I imagine most of them don’t get too far into the depth of the stories of the Bible.

  • davenj1

    True, the polls have yo-yoed all over the place. There has been a leader du jour almost weekly. I can show you polls with Trump leading for crying out loud. And so what? You said it best: the one constant has been Romney’s alleged ceiling. When there is this many people running for the nomination, there will not be a consensus, 50% person, but a plurality. Its called the winnowing process. Second, as in all primaries- Democrat and Republican- the voters are not indicative of the general election voters. I would look more to the hypothetical match ups between potential GOP nominees against Obama on a state by state basis to see who would fare best as a better indicator. That person is Romney. If Republicans want to nominate someone else, then it is at their peril and the alternatives will either need a total make over, or get a brain transplant.

    • gekster

      She just said, and I quote:
      “Ann Coulter says it is “suicidal” for the Republican party to pick the most conservative candidate no matter what”.

      You know she is for Romney, so that means he is not the most conservative candidate.
      And they said the same of Reagan in 1980, that he was too ‘conservative’.
      How did that election turn out.