« BACK  |  PRINT

RS

MEMBER DIARY

Iowa: Perry has spent $3M; Newt has spent $0.

There are thirty-five days until the Iowa caucuses.  Conservatives have been evaluating Newt Gingrich, Herman Cain and Rick Perry to determine who will best represent their views.  They have been trying to find an alternative to Mitt Romney.

Yesterday, the Herman Cain campaign imploded.  It is over.  Cain is done.  His followers need a place to go.  The latest Insider Advantage Survey has Cain with 10% support of the American electorate.  That 10% is now up for grabs. 

14% of Iowans are undecided.  This 14% is up for grabs.  Literally one quarter of Iowan support is packaged and ready for the taking.  Ron Paul is polling well at 13% but unlikely to pick up any additional support, the same goes for two great candidates in Santorum and Huntsman. 

That leaves Gingrich with a soft 28%.  The polls have swung wildly to Palin and the Donald, neither will be president.  The same will prove true with Gingrich.  Gingrich still has no money and no Iowa infrastructure.  He continues to believe this is a winning strategy, it is not.  Gingrich spent no money last month in Iowa.  Someone else will be forming his narrative.  He has little in the way of door-knockers and phone callers.  This isn’t a hopeful future.  Some Newt supporters will argue that he will be the recipient of Cain’s supporters, but not so fast. 

Newt is withstanding the attacks now, but as his history of divorce, UNconservative positions and lobbying begins being discussed again, he will wither. 

That will leave Bachmann and Perry.  Bachmann has about 10% support while Perry is stuck at 7%.  True believers trust Bachmann.  She has been on the front lines leading the opposition to Obama since his inauguration.  She is one of us.  But she has no money, an uninspiring tax plan and a lack of depth in the debates.  Even if she were to win Iowa, there seems little chance that she could win South Carolina or Florida.  If Bachmann gains traction, griffinelection.com will be her biggest supporter, until then, there isn’t really a path to victory for her.

That leaves Perry who has run a tight ship since the worst gaffe of all time.  He has spent almost $3Million dollars in Iowa.  He has a campaign infrastructure on the ground there and in South Carolina.  He has muscular super PACS working on his behalf.  He has released a flat tax plan and an energy plan.  And he still has money.  In fact, he has $20 million to spend in Iowa.  Only Romney can match that.  As Iowan conservatives look for the candidate to coalesce around, Perry will come into view as the guy.

Yesterday he called on Geithner and Bernanke to step down.  He rebuked the $8B Fed/bank secret bailout.  He promised to repeal Dodd/Frank and Obamacare.  He understands the nuance of immigration policy.  He is a social conservative that gets it.  He is for free markets.  He is the last chance to take the White House, otherwise we can go ahead and begin discussing Bob McDonnell, Mike Pence and Sam Brownback for 2016.       

Perry can do a lot to solidify this himself by churning out stellar, winning, in-depth debate performances in December.    

The latest poll shows something else interesting, Rick Perry has 53% of Hispanic support.  That is amazing.  That kind of support indicates that he could take a large slice of the Hispanic vote in the General.  That is enough to put him over the top against Obama in New Mexico, North Carolina and Florida. 

You don’t have to love Perry, but the reality is that he is the guy to beat Romney.  The Iowan grassroots is in charge now.  If they pull this off, South Carolina and Florida will follow.  Over the next thirty days, Perry can spend, campaign and debate his way to victory.  Help him Obi Won Kenobi, he’s our only hope.

Get Alerts

COMMENTS

  • http://www.nighttwister.com NightTwister

    Based on the polls, that is.

    • andystone

      N/T

    • Common_Cents

      Golly gee, Rick spent $3million, IA should vote for him! Those meanies!

      ( i think Acat gets credit for PerryKrishnas term)

      Newt Kids on the Block.

      • acat

        I just use it. Of course, I support Perry …

        Newt is riding on his name recognition, and as long as the Cain implosion doesn’t splash him, he can get away with it.

        Perry, on the other hand, is trying to get people to give him a second look.

        I’m pretty okay with either, although I would prefer Perry.

        Mew

  • lucasblack

    The Star Wars geek in me has to point out the error, there. Newt didn’t need to spend all that money. He brought his positive ratings back up with good debates, free media and his record as a conservative fighter. He’s no paper tiger. All the polling shows that Gingrich has been the #2 choice of a plurality of Cain supporters, so it’s quite logical to expect that he will be the biggest benefactor of Cain’s implosion.
    Money is coming into Gingrich’s campaign at a fast and furious clip. I do not expect him to be able to match Romney for organization, but I do expect he’ll be able to keep up with Perry.
    I don’t know what to say to the Perry people – your guy just didn’t catch on. I understand; my first choice was T-Paw and he never got the support I expected he would, either. At this stage, Perry has to hope for a serious misstep by Gingrich to get back in the game. I think it’s his only remaining hope.

  • tnguy

    Doesn’t change the fact I won’t vote for any of these others. Can’t imagine a scenario where I’d vote for a lefty like Romney or a centrist like Gingrich. Not. Gonna. Happen.

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qi6n_-wB154

    • lucasblack

      Do you mean in the primary or the general? I can understand if it’s the primary. I wouldn’t vote for Bachmann in the primary under any circumstances, but I’d hold my nose and vote for her in the general if she were somehow the nominee.
      If Newt were to drop for some reason before FL, I would vote for Ron Paul (who won’t drop unless he’s dead), but most of the other candidates are acceptable in varying degrees. Well, not Cain, but at this stage, I consider him out of the race.

      • tnguy

        I’ve held my nose for the last time to vote for a McCain/Dole/Bush type. That conservatives have done so and voted for those kind of candidates put Obama in a position to win in the first place.

        We can’t continue to vote for bad republican candidates then be surprised or disappointed when uninformed and centrist voters vote for the Bolsheviks, because hey, there are few real differences. We need to stick to our principles, regardless of who is on the ballot. My principles don’t include talking myself into voting for someone like McCain, ever again. Or Romney, or Gingrich. Which is a shame because 20 years ago, Gingrich was almost a hero to me. Then he got in power and he was neutered by his pathetic personal life. Many of these candidates just get a flat “No” from me, regardless of who is opposing them.

  • falgore

    Same thoughts are echoed above, but your title says it all — Perry has spent $3 MM in Iowa and is still only polling at 7%. Newt has spent $0 and is polling at 28%? That sounds pretty good to me as a Newt supporter.

    I guess I need to go give Newt some money.

    • donald_24

      Why give Newt your hard earned money? Let him self fund his campaign with his “consulting” fees.

  • expanding_man

    As the Gov. of Texas I like him well enough. There are worse potential nominees out there and I see nothing wrong with rooting for him. However the most recent polls don’t bode well for Perry in the early primary states. According to RCP’s site here’s how he’s polling in the most recent polls released today:

    Iowa 7%
    NH 2%
    SC 4%

    I agree that Gingrich has no infrastructure in Iowa so that will hurt him. Perry’s only shot will be to pick up the majority of the Cain supporters who are now going to be jumping ship. I think it is very unlikely that Perry will place even in second place in any of these early states.

    • gekster

      for the umteenth time, they said the same thing about McCain.
      Polls don’t elect candidates, voters do.

      • westcoastpatriette

        Besides the three wins for the Governorship, he also was elected for three terms in the Texas House, one time as Texas Agriculture Commissioner and one time as Texas Lieutenant Governor.

        Not too shabby in terms of proven record and competitive streak. Way too soon to count him out.

      • expanding_man

        Every campaign on life support trots out that arguement when there is nothing else left. Don’t look at the polls, someone in the past polled badly and took off later. We can do the same. Possible, but not at all likely. Perry lacks the infrastructure and local bases of supporters that are essential to winning the early states. Not enough boots on the ground. I suspect his ability to attract new donors is shot at this point.

        Having said all of that I prefer him to Gingrich and Romney. Would bring a smile to my face to see him overachieve.

        • acat

          that Bachmann, Gingrich, and Santorum (and McCotter, Paul and Roemer, for that matter) lack.

          Further, Perry does have a team in Iowa. It’s the one that Newt used to have, before they all quit when Perry got in.

          With that backdrop, the polling thing is hardly a last-gasp argument.

          Mew

      • Xasteius

        They are semi-useful propaganda tools otherwise.

        • expanding_man

          However, polls at this stage in a campaign start to have significant predictive value. Looking at the entire picture of where Perry’s campaing is at right now is not pretty. His only slim pathway to victory starts with Perry sucking up the Cain supporters as they run for the exits.

  • carolynr

    I was being nice. If either one of these two people, Newt or Romney get in…we are going to have more of the same crap that is going on right now. We will not cut the budget….and we will be in the trouble that Europe is in. In case you did not read this…want to see how bad things are going to be if Obama gets his way:

    http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Euro-Finance-Ministers-wscheats-3060132077.html

    People…we need a fiscally Conservative governor in the WH that will get the three branches of government back to their original focus and much of the legislation back to the states.

    Please…get this thing from yahoo around…they are talking about ceding our sovereignty

  • Common_Cents

    Is there some entitlement due because he spent $3million?

    Imagine if the Coca Cola CEO came out and said consumers should buy New Coke because we spent 100 million and Pepsi only spent $10million on diet pepsi?

    Perry is forced to spend much more, why? He screwed up his early national exposure in debates big time and must spend a lot more to make up for it. It takes a lot of web ads, ground game, shaking hands, and spending to overcome bad performances in front of millions of people.

    • texashistorian

      It’s not entitlement because he spent the money. Rather, it is indicative of the operation in place that will matter when the caucuses actually happen. Of course no one is entitled because they spent a lot: look at Obama. But, you are missing the point. The money matters to infrastructure, advertising, and retail campaigning in a state where no matter what the polls say, is still in play for several of the candidates.

  • maribeth

    Got a good smile out of it. I’ve read several articles in the past week or so that talked about how Perry is returning to the straight-talking, take-no-prisoners way of campaigning–i.e., returning to his old self pre-”heartless” comment.

    Only question: where are you getting the “$20 million” figure?
    ______________________________________________________________
    Formerly known as “changeforrickperry”

  • acat

    (Cheshire grin)

  • maribeth

    Very funny. To Rick Perry: “May the Bundlers be with you.” *giggle*

  • Repair_Man_Jack

    It takes time for an investment in ground strength to pay off. I think the dates all moving up is of benefit to Gingrich. The Caucus could go off before Perry’s monetary investment has time to pay off.

  • http://www.nighttwister.com NightTwister

    I assume this was meant for me. Anyway, right now the ROI favors Newt. That could change, but right now I don’t see it. My comment was more to show how desperate the Perrybots have become.

  • acat

    I agree the time is going to be tight, but .. at this point Gingrich seems to be using the Palin Plan.

    Mew

  • Repair_Man_Jack

    And yes, I think some Perry people are pushing the panic button early. He could get a lot of momentum just by finishing 3rd in NH.

  • anonymousbosch

    What’s the Palin plan?