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Iowa Debate Tonight: Can Perry show he is the anti-Newt/Romney?

By: Griffin@griffinelection (Diary)  |  December 15th, 2011 at 09:05 AM  | 

RESIZE: AAA

As we have been predicting, Gingrich is on his way down in Iowa.  Once he gets past a certain point, he doesn’t have the charisma to come back.  Gingrich is taking it from every side in Iowa ad buys.  Everyone, Romney, Paul and Perry are hitting him from the right.  Gingrich has replied with no negative ads and hardly any positive ones.  How noble, but stupid.  A new Iowa Rasmussen poll has Romney leading at 23% of republican support!  With Gingrich at number two with 20% and Ron Paul coming in with 18%.  That leaves Perry holding steady with 10%.  Another poll has Ron Paul leading.  We need a guy that can win the election.

Tonight there is an opening for someone.  The Iowa GOP doesn’t want Romney or Paul.  Gingrich is a sitting duck and is going to hand this election to Romney if Iowans let him.  I feel confident that they won’t.

Conservatives in Iowa have Santorum, Perry and Bachmann to choose from.  If any of these three can deliver a knock-out performance tonight, they will become the anti-Newt/Mitt/Paul candidate we’ve been waiting for and if they can begin to rise, there won’t be enough time between now and January 3 to bring them down.

I am looking to Perry tonight to demonstrate one more time that he is finally ready to articulate a conservative message that is all about jobs, jobs, jobs to the GOP.  He a Christian man, husband of one woman, he has a conservative enough record, he is pro-life and his record is the opposite of Obama’s, he allows job creation not job losses.

Conservatives ought to coalesce around Perry not because he is inherently better than Representative Bachmann or Senator Santorum but because he has the money, prestige and record to go the distance with this thing.  If we power Santorum or Bachmann to a win in Iowa, so what?  How will they take down Romney coming off a New Hampshire win without any money for ad buys or get-out-the-vote initiatives?  They won’t be able to compete.  Perry has the money to make this happen.

Rarely in life do we get one of those end-of-the-movie moments where a group of people wait with breathless anticipation to be inspired and to follow.  Tonight Rick Perry will survey that exact scene before him.  If he can knock this out of the park, he will be the guy Iowans coalesce around going into Christmas.  That is exactly what we need.

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  • http://edgeinducedcohesion.wordpress.com nathanalbright

    ….I’ll be looking at the debate once the full video is online, since it’s impossible for me to see anything where I am anyway on television.

  • http://www.nighttwister.com NightTwister

    This will be the debate that Rick Perry finally causes America to fall in love with him.

    Full disclosure: I wish that were actually to be the case. I really do.

    • aggie91

      There will still be plenty of time for you to come around once Gingrich has settled back into single digits in the polls. Hopefully the ‘I told you so’s’ will not be overly obnoxious.
      I know you are still uncommited and the above statement was mainly in jest.

      Question? I value your opinion, as you seem to be a well reasoned individual (by reading your posts and diary’s).

      When, in your mind, will be the right time to commit to a particular candidate?

      Aggie91

      • http://www.nighttwister.com NightTwister

        It will have to be by February 7th, caucus day in Colorado.

        Gingrich back to single digits? I don’t really see that happening, though it’s definitely possible that he could drop (and is dropping in Iowa right now).

        Those fickle Iowans. You know what I would find hilarious? Romney wins Iowa and Newt wins New Hampshire. I would really love to see what the pundits would do with that. It don’t really see it happening, but I love to watch the experts try to explain why they were so wrong whether it’s politics or sports.

        It’s kinda funny when I look back at taking a 2nd look at Gingrich. When he originally announced he was running, my initial thought was, “you gotta be joking”. After everyone else crashed & burned and I started looking at him again, I saw something different. I saw someone that not only could stand up to Obama and his media throngs, but someone that could actually accomplish something good in Washington despite the odds against that. I honestly don’t see that ability in anyone else.

        The thing about Newt is, his ego will eventually be his undoing, but we could also use it to our advantage until then. Harnessed for good, it could be a fearful and awesome thing to behold.

        • aggie91

          Here’s the deal. While sitting on the fence it is impossible to positively influence this process. You will only be able to sway your own opinion because it is impossible to effectively argue for any candidate when you will not commit to them. I personally have commited to Perry based upon your reply you are leaning to Gingrich. I would suggest (to steal a Perry line) that you engage for Gingrich and work to influence other in a positive manner. I really talking about those that do not frequent RS and other conservative blog sites. You see if we all waited to commit to our vote right before we actually voted, we take a very narrow self-centered view of the process. Use the gifts that god have given you (Rational thought, time, eloquence, etc..) to champion the conservative cause.

          • http://www.nighttwister.com NightTwister

            Sure, it’s obvious that I lean towards supporting Newt, and to be honest if nothing changes I probably will. But I’m not convinced that Newt is the answer like I was convinced that Pawlenty was the answer.

            I still think there’s a chance for Perry, although a slim one. More likely though, he’ll probably flame out in South Carolina like FDT did four years ago.

            Also, I believe I’m using my gifts by pointing out inconsistencies in arguments for and against all of the candidates. Sometimes an objective outsider view can be helpful to those that are in the tank so to speak for their candidate, or at least others that are watching.

            As for the conservative cause, it will be not be harmed with Perry or Newt. I’m OK being in the “Not Romney” camp where I find quite a bit of company. I don’t know if you saw my “A View from the Cheap Seats” diary. I don’t see how actually full-on supporting a candidate (even Newt) would’ve made that much different or more effective.

            I’ll consider your comment though. Who knows, maybe tomorrow I’ll come to a final decision.

          • http://www.nighttwister.com NightTwister

            I don’t see myself deciding any time soon. After reading the comments about the debate today around here, I’ve learned that candibots will say anything to try to score points whether it’s true or not.

            If anything, I’m less inclined now to make a decision soon.

    • lineholder

      FWIW it’s worth to Perry supporters, I don’t question Perry’s credentials…but I do question his ability to recognize the type of environment we’ve been facing, to see that he has had a HUGE opportunity laid at his feet, and to respond to the situation in a way that will gain voter support for Conservatism as a whole…even if that means breaking away from his traditional or trademark approach to campaigning.

      He’s got the creds. He’s got the experience. He’s probably in the best position out of all the candidates to proactively promote Conservatism as the better choice over Liberalism. There’s a chance all it would take for him to make a really, REALLY solid connection with voters is to break away from the “Secretariat” approach that people keep referencing.

      I’ve just gotten to the point of believing that he’s too stuck in behavioral patterns that have worked for him in the past to make the break.

      • http://www.nighttwister.com NightTwister

        Lots of cannonballs have been flying by lately.

        • lineholder

          I’m developing an internal “incoming alert system”, LOL.

    • satchman3

      nt1

  • texashistorian

    and we’ll see- Perry is the natural fit here for those who are not thrilled with Newt, don’t care for Romney, and find Ron Paul too far beyond the pale on foreign policy. The way it looks is that group represents some 40% of the caucus goers.

    I will submit one addendum to your breakdown Tim- I don’t believe Perry has to “knock it out of the park,” so much as he just needs to come off relaxed and confident. He’ll never shine in a debate with nicely turned phrases like Newt, or be able to trot out well-rehearsed lines like Romney, but he can be himself, which, even if he doesn’t “score points” with a good line, ought to be enough.

  • http://www.changeforrickperry.org louisianapatriette

    *SMILE* I’m watching “Secretariat” with my family right now (not at this moment, but in the evenings before bed). Last night we saw the part where they discover Secretariat has an abscess in his mouth, and that’s why he lost one of his first races. Once the abscess heals and Penny (his owner) basically encourages him to run it to win it, Secretariat wins the Kentucky Derby by a huge margin.

    I looked at my mom yesterday evening with a big smile and said, “You see? MY Secretariat had an abscess, but now he’s on a roll.”

    “You mean,” she said with a returning smile, “he had a backache.”

    I think there will be one of those end-of-the-movie moments in this campaign, Tim. Perry has proven himself to be an able debater (everyone MUST admit that at the very least) these past few weeks. His back has obviously healed. People are listening and responding positively, especially in Iowa, where he’s surrounded by people wherever he goes (standing room only in one place the other day). Yes, Secretariat has indeed been let out of the gate. And since the Secretariat pattern has ALWAYS been Rick Perry’s pattern, I’m thinking we’re all going to get a huge surprise after Christmas.

  • romansdaughter

    I think Rick Perry is going to surprise a lot of people.

  • carolynr

    Bachmann. She is a shill for Romney and always has been to get the TPM…she will be his VP choice.

    She did not come up with any vision…none…she was the attack dog for Romney. However, the pundits and the audience LOVES red meat and she gave it to them…no substance to how SHE AS POTUS would handle anything. She accomplished what she is there for…knock out Gingrich and Paul.