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What to look for in the New Hampshire debate tonight

By: Griffin@griffinelection (Diary)  |  January 7th, 2012 at 08:57 AM  | 

RESIZE: AAA

Alright ladies and gentlemen, tonight is the first primary debate of 2012.  On the left we have Mitt Romney who has to win big in New Hampshire to remain the inevitable candidate.  On the right we have Jon Huntsman who is better qualified than Romney in every way to win New Hampshire.  We have Newt Gingrich who can’t wait to take his revenge on Romney for being “Romney-boated” in Iowa and we have an emboldened Rick Santorum and a desperate Rick Perry.  It should make great political theater.

There is no doubt Mitt Romney is going to win New Hampshire, but that doesn’t mean he is going to win tonight’s debate.  If a voter is conservative, Christian, consistent or convicted — Romney isn’t the guy.  He is set to win the state by 41%, but there is major room for Huntsman or Santorum to cut into this lead.

Governor Jon Huntsman and Senator Rick Santorum have the best chance of coming in second or third after Ron Paul and riding that influence into South Carolina.

Jon Huntsman.

Let’s face it, Jon Huntsman seems better by the day, I would love to see the guy taking away lots of Romney support and coming in second place in New Hampshire.  Unfortunately, the RCP average has him stagnated at 9%.  He will be a force to be reckoned with in 2016 as it is close to impossible to create momentum for himself this late in the game.

But a comeback, getting him 15-20% of the New Hampshire vote would make headlines and potentially slingshot him into South Carolina.  If he could do better there, this guy could even win Florida.  A New Hampshire debate should be a smarter debate and I think Huntsman will deliver.  I expect to hear some less hawkish rhetoric on Iran, withdrawal in Afghanistan, intelligent talk on trade wars with China and more of Huntsman’s plan to break down the “too big to fail” corporations.  It would also be nice if he would discuss his pro-life views as I have never heard him articulate his stance.  This guy’s record is consistently pro-life, pro-gun and pro-growth, as Governor, he helped pass badly needed healthcare reform without a mandate.  If New Hampshire voters want to live up to their independent reputation, they will give Huntsman life after this week’s primary.  If Gingrich could injure Romney, Huntsman might be able to turn his Boston Globe endorsement into some momentum.

Rick Santorum. 

Rick Santorum is the other guy to watch.  He has gone full steam ahead in New Hampshire for better or worse.  Santorum is currently in third place in New Hampshire with 13% support.  Ron Paul is in second with 20%.  Santorum is campaigning hard up there.  A strong debate focused on his economic message, may give him the boost that he needs.  If Santorum could come in second place to Romney he could solidify himself as the Romney alternative.

How does Santorum break through the noise to perform decently in New Hampshire?  I don’t know, but Santorum is going to have to show us something.  If he can do that and use his momentum to achieve second place in New Hampshire, he just may end Gingrich and Perry’s campaigns just in time to unite the conservative vote.

 

These are the two guys to watch for real change.  Other than that, sit back and enjoy the Romney/Gingrich feud.  9pm ABC.

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  • lizzie

    1) watch Ron Paul’s new “Santorum – serial betrayal” Youtube ad embed here (really worth a look):
    http://thecaucus.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/01/07/new-hampshire-debates-five-things-to-watch/
    and then read Michael Shear’s take on all six of the candidates who will stand on the ABC/WMUR debate Saturday night at 9 pm ET. Main point Shear gets wrong is that he thinks Perry willfocus on social issues, which is, once again, the wrong lens – Perry is likely to only get 2-3 questions, and he will do his best to emphasize jobs-growth-deficit-and any opportunity to blow the media’s brains by another prescient insight on foreign policy.

    2) apparently Santorum said today that CURRENT Social Security benefits may need to be cut to address the deficit. If that is true, I assume THAT will be the first IED question Santorum will have to face.

    3) I have no idea if Gingrich and Huntsman will try to destroy Ron Paul more than dent Romney and Santorum, but that will depend on how Diane and George and the WMUR reporter will frame questions. I do not expect Perry to attack anyone – he needs (and I assume he knows this) to let the other five rumble while Perry rebuilds his own image.

    4) The Boston Globe endorsement of Jon Huntsman is an interesting issue.
    I spoke yesterday, at length, here in rural Mass, with a friend who is very knowledgeable about Mass/NH politics. I pressed her repeatedly about the influence of the Globe on the NH independents who moved to southern NH but still work in Boston. She said they would be even less likely to be swayed by the uber-liberal Globe.

    5) Politico is only showing Huntsman, Paul, and Perry for the Sunday debate on Meet the Press, which, if true, would make for a fascinating threesome.
    But, news.google still shows all six to re-debate only ten hours later.

    6) Since the main goal is to knock Romney down below 40% in NH (failing expectations), I do believe the real focus will be to damage Ron Paul – “containment” is not enough.

    I think there are 30 candidates on the New Hampshire ballot. There have been forums for the ‘unknowns’ Who knows if 10-20% of voters will go for the 24+ candidates NOT on the debate stage tonight?

    Huntsman’s money has dried up to the point where he is personally offering matching donations…if he does not exceed expectations with 15% of the vote, I am not sure he will be able to stay in the contest. It is his father who is the billionaire, not Jon, Jr.

    • hobiecat

      Most of the questions will be given to Santorum, Romney and Paul. I doubt Newt will be given much time to attack Romney tonight. JMO.

      • lizzie

        and I did specify that Perry will only get 2-3 questions at these two debates.

        There are only six candidates and two hours minus Diane Sawyer’s monologues.

        I do think Huntsman, because he is so popular with the media, might get more questions than Gingrich,

        The latest twist on the Ron Paul supporter’s attack Youtube on Huntsman as the “Manchurian Candidate” is that the Ron Paul campaign did a ‘forensic analysis’ that points to Huntsman creating the Youtube to make Ron Paul look bad.

        Yes, Santorum will be asked about Social Security, and newest headline that not everyone should or wants to go to college (I do agree with that – I tell young people to become plumbers or masons)

        Who knows what devilish fun George and Diane will have on gay marriage and abortion with Santorum.

        But, once there are only six on the stage, it gets easier to give everyone at least 2-3 direct questions.

        I still think Ron Paul is the main target, but someone other than Rick Perry will try to show Romney’s glass jaw to break his posed Presidential demeanor.

        gee, Tim, I expected more interest in the NH debates.
        ABC in primetime versus a lot of movie re-runs on cable and NFL football is the Lions v Saints following the Bengals v Texans, so, by 9 pm, maybe 5 hours of pro-football will be enough for some…
        ABC had 7.5 million viewers last time they had Saturday night debate in primetime.

        Now that Iowa has had a vote, a LOT more people are tuning in.