Pollsters embarrassed by Sanford win, Cockstradamus ends retirement
servatives wandering aimlessly in the political wilderness since the Obama re-election of 2012 disaster without their strong male role model and Palmetto State oracle now roosted atop Stone Mountain of Georgia, take heart.
That fearless fighting rooster marked his return to political prognostications last Monday, the day before Mark Sanford’s landslide victory over Stephen Colbert’s sister, via this column, thusly:
Our Stone Mountain-of-Georgia-roost-view of the South Carolina race is hazy and our alter ego Cockstradamus retired from political prognostications after We the People re-hired a failed Obama last November. But if our beloved home state, and especially the First Congressional District, even faintly resembles the state we left for Hotlanta in the Summer of 2001, we would be shocked if Charleston sent a “D” to D.C. on Tuesday.
Admittedly our alter ego, distraught after the first re-election of a such a failed economic steward in our nation’s history last November and retired to sports and other non-political predictions before Tuesday’s special election in South Carolina to fill the First Congressional District seat vacated by now-Sen. Tim Scott’s appointment by Gov. Nikki Haley to replace the retiring Se. Jim DeMint, provided us with the benefit of his Sandlapper wisdom and knowledge responsible for the un-shocking revelation that media reports of the death of the GOP in Charleston were greatly exaggerated:
Mark Sanford is heading off to Washington DC, while pollsters are heading back to their workshops. His victory by 9pt over Elizabeth Colbert Busch in South Carolina’s first district special election was surprisingly large. The last two public polls from Public Policy Polling (PPP) and Red Racing Horses (RRH) had Sanford winning by 1pt and a tie, respectively. PPP published a poll just two weeks before the election that had Colbert Busch winning by 9pt.
All three reports have joined the top 10 least accurate polls within two weeks of a special election, since 2004. PPP’s first poll was especially bad. It had an error of 18pt, which makes it the second least accurate poll taken two weeks before a special election since 2004. As my friendMark Blumenthal points out, this first PPP survey had far too many African Americans as a percentage of the electorate. I don’t doubt that some white voters, a mostly Republican demographic in South Carolina’s first district, were disenchanted with Sanford by allegations that he violated the terms of his divorce, but the difference in the percentage of black voters was too great. Colbert Busch never had a lead of 9pt. One might wonder whether she even had a lead.
Do you cringe like I do when pollsters and commentators speak of “leads” in races in which no votes have been cast or in which only yet-to-be-counted early votes have been case, i.e. before Election Day? I do, but I digress.
As we have proclaimed since our writing career was launched after our Summer of 2001 conservative epiphany, our main purpose here at DeVine Law Gamecock Musings LLC is to advance the conservative Republican cause to save an America slouching towards Gomorrah. It is not to make easy predictions about what uniformed voters will do so we can puff our chests with pride that we are “in touch” with the ignorant.
No, we make cases for WHY conservatives should prevail, which usually concern the proven failure of failed liberal economic, social and defense policies and the superiority of conservative Republican values, principles and proposals that have stood the test of time.
We will never predict a liberal Democrat victory, lest we be a part of the cacophony of liberal push-pollsters who seek to achieve electoral results by discouraging fellow conservatives. We push with ideas, not fake polls. And we will never advocate joining the liberal Democrat side on issues based upon the belief (almost always wrongheaded) that doing so will ensure or make possible a Republican victory. Yes, we understand that only via a united Republican Party can we reverse Democrat-enacted policies that prevent this nation from economic recovery worthy of the name, and we have not voted to send a Democrat to D.C. since 1998 and won’t. And yes, we are a conservative realist that recognizes that we have to compromise in purple and blue states on some issues, especially after the primary.
But neither will we equate a mere Republican Party victory with our cause. We want to save America. Not just have “R”s beside the names of those managing its decline so that “our pals” get the pork from D.C.
That said, we venture forth once again into political foresight with Cockstradamus by our side looking forward to a an Old Dominion gubernatorial victory by Virginia’s Republican Attorney General Ken Cuccinelli on Election Day, November 5, 2013. Still gazing upon our Bay State crystal ball searching for Gabriel Gomez and Ed Markey support clues before that special election to replace the U.S. Senate seat vacated when John Kerry was appointed to replace Hillary Clinton as President Barack Obama’s Secretary of State.
Until then, Cock-a-Doodle-Do!
[As can be seen via links above, since December 2012 our poultry-constituted oracle has correctly foreseen many college football bowl (Leonard's) losers; as well as economic and employment trends. And we stand by our Atlanta Braves as 2013 MLB World Series winner...more later]
“One man with courage makes a majority.” – Andrew Jackson
Editor of Hillbilly Politics
Atlanta Law & Politics columnist at Examiner.com
Front page columnist for Liberty Unyielding and Western Free