Is A GOP Tsunami Building In Jersey?


PPP’s drawn some interesting numbers in their latest poll of New Jersey.

Do you plan to vote Democratic or Republican for the New Jersey General Assembly this year?

  • Republican 41%
  • Democrat 35%

Party ID breakdown:

  • 40% Democrat
  • 31% Republican
  • 30% Independent

Political views:

  • 51% Moderate
  • 28% Conservative
  • 21% Liberal

Note that the first question asks how respondents plan to vote this year given who’s running, not in a generic race with unnamed candidates. It’s also very interesting that, even though Dems outnumber Republicans four to three, self-identified Conservatives outnumber Liberals by a seven point margin.



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9 Comments Leave a comment

Don't put too much stock into the political views numbers

scarlos (Diary) Saturday, October 17th at 8:38PM EDT (link)

Gallup found that every state in the US has conservatives outnumbering Liberals, though with Vermont and Massachusetts it was within the margin of error.

The problem is that Conservatives generally only vote about 80-20 Republican (i think) while Liberals vote 99-0 Democrat and Moderates about 65-35 Democrat, which means Conservatives need to make up about 40% of the electorate in order to win most elections.

As for the generic tally, it’s certainly good news, though i doubt we’re going to see the assembly flip party control (9 seats out of the 48 Democrats hold). A significant increase in Republican representation would certainly help Christie assuming he wins, and prevent politicos from spinning his victory as a personal one.

Socialism is Oligarchy in disguise

Close

proudgop (Diary) Saturday, October 17th at 9:23PM EDT (link)

Its going to be close race only because (a) Corzine is using his money to buy another election in Jersey and (B) Daggett is taking a lot anti Corzine voters it just remains to see if these voters switch to Christie at last minute

Be interesting to see how many seats Republicans pick up in assembly both here and in Virginia?

Actually this is better news than I thought

scarlos (Diary) Saturday, October 17th at 9:36PM EDT (link)

It’s coming from the PPP, which usually puts numbers about 3-5 points more Democratic than usual.

Which means this could be VERY good for the GOP in Jersey, having a Democratic-leaning poll give them a 6-point lead in the generic ballot. Unfortunately only the state assembly is up and not the state senate (Jersey has weird election dates).

Work on the turnout people! It will decide these off-year elections

Socialism is Oligarchy in disguise

 
 
 

Nervous about NJ

ktsub (Diary) Sunday, October 18th at 1:57AM EDT (link)

On the ground here in VA, seems like McDonnell is steamrolling…I have met just a handful of Deeds voters, and no block walkers for Deeds.

Out of curiosity, what part of VA are you in

scarlos (Diary) Sunday, October 18th at 2:21AM EDT (link)

Northern, Eastern, Central, “Tidewater” etc.

Socialism is Oligarchy in disguise

 

Just got a young man for Deeds at my door....

JadedByPolitics (Diary) Sunday, October 18th at 3:44PM EDT (link)

I laughed, told him to pay attention to the issue’s and when he grows up and becomes a Conservative he can come back to my door!

He was a very sad and frightened young man kind of like Deeds!

Its not that long till the election, should have taken him hostage.

nessa (Diary) Sunday, October 18th at 5:24PM EDT (link)

A couple weeks in the woodshed would do the poor kid some good.

“If you love wealth more than liberty, the tranquility of servitude better than the animating contest of freedom, depart from us in peace. We ask not your counsel nor your arms. Crouch down and lick the hand that feeds you. May your chains rest lightly upon you and may posterity forget that you were our countrymen.”—Samuel Adams

Contributor to Unified Patriots

teh twitter

 
 
 

I'm in Tidewater

Holden Des Montsverts (Diary) Sunday, October 18th at 3:38PM EDT (link)

Home is in Tidewater, though work has had me living elsewhere for several years.

 

Part of the problem

nycenterright Sunday, October 18th at 9:41PM EDT (link)

is that Conservatives have generally been very bad at identifying specifically what conservatism is, while at the same time they have been very good at identifying symbolically what conservatism means. Conservatives, the public hears, are for freedom, liberty, patriotism, traditional values, and personal responsibility. The problem is that there are a whole ton of people who consider themselves patriotic freedom-lovers who have a strong belief in the importance of traditional values and personal responsibility, who also happen to be of a much more liberal political persuasion.

Gallup ran a poll at the beginning of this month asking:

“In general, do you feel that the laws covering the sale of firearms should be made more strict, less strict, or kept as they are now?”
In a country that self-identified in the last election as 34% conservative, only 12% of the country answered that these laws should be made less strict.