Reverse the Vote! is a program set up to specifically target 24 Democrats who voted for health care rationing, and against their constituents’ desires, last week.  The list is entertaining:

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This is why.

In the 43 states where the congressional redistricting process is in partisan hands, Democrats control both houses of the state legislature and the governor’s mansion in 15 states, while Republicans hold 8 states, and 20 states are split between the two parties. Going into 2010, Democrats control redistricting in nearly twice as many states as Republicans, but states where the GOP controls the process - for instance Florida, Texas, and Utah - are also the most likely to be adding congressional seats. And for the first time since it joined the union in 1850, California may not add a congressional seat.

…37 states will elect new governors and 36 new state legislatures next fall. That means that every state house race - especially in states like Tennessee, where the legislature is closely-­divided - has the potential to have effect on the next decade’s political landscape.

(Via 73Wire, via The Other McCain)

Let’s look very quickly at the eight states listed here as being the ones most likely to lose seats:

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Yesterday Dan linked to the unusual update that Charlie Cook recently issued on 2010 races. As Ace notes, Cook seems to have decided to trust his gut more than his models, and says a loss of more than 20 seats is not at all unlikely.

“Many veteran Congressional election watchers, including Democratic ones, report an eerie sense of déjà vu, with a consensus forming that the chances of Democratic losses going higher than 20 seats is just as good as the chances of Democratic losses going lower than 20 seats…”

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Promoted from diaries by Brian Faughnan.

Sean Duffy seems like an excellent candidate in a swing seat. That’s right - the seat held by Obey leans only marginally toward the Democrats. Duffy is the sort of bright, young candidate who can give America’s spender-in-chief a serious challenge.

Today, I’m announcing that I’m a candidate for Congress in Wisconsin’s 7th Congressional district. I’m challenging Congress’s leading spender, David Obey. We have a chance to make history in the 7th in 2010, but I can only do it with your help. I hope you’ll start by joining our team at DuffyforCongress.com.

First, I’d like to tell you a little bit about myself.

For the last seven years, I’ve been the District Attorney of Ashland County, and I’m proud of my over 90 percent trial success rate. I was raised in Hayward. Rachel and I are proud to be raising our five kids in Northern Wisconsin – because there’s no better place to raise a family than in the great state of Wisconsin.

I’m running for Congress because I think it’s time for new voices and new leadership in Washington. For more than 200 years our country has prospered under the philosophy that the individual – not the government – is the engine of American prosperity. That small businesses and dedicated workers – not government agencies and bureaucrats – generate economic growth and wealth. And yet, in response to the current financial crisis, our leaders in Washington have put their faith, not in the American people, but in the government. My speech to an April 15th Tea Party in Madison sums up my commitment to fiscal responsibility:

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My latest column for the American Issues Project focuses on a surprising phenomenon: while the mainstream media keeps asking how the GOP needs to change to survive, Republican candidates are leading in a host of races around the country. In fact, if you set aside for a moment the unified Democratic control in Washington (admittedly, a heavy lift) you might think it was the Democratic party that was on the ropes.

Senate races in Illinois and Delaware are likely to be watched especially closely, since those seats were formerly held by the President and Vice President. In Illinois, Congressman Mark Kirk is eyeing the race, and is seen as one of the GOP’s strongest statewide contenders in years. In Delaware, Republican Congressman Mike Castle has a significant lead in polls over Joe Biden’s son, Beau. If either of these challengers prevails, it will represent a stunning shift to the right for either state. The fact that both states seem prepared to reject the liberal legacies of Obama and Biden is shocking…

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It’s cute nowadays to get into debates with Democrats about the supposedly helpless and directionless Republican party. They really think their party is doing just fine.

They think that because their fans in the press write hopefully about ‘green shoots,’ the economy isn’t going to crash under the weight of unsustainable debt. They think that because Barack Obama polls well on his handling of foreign policy, it doesn’t matter that Hugo Chavez is arming rebels to topple regimes friendly to the US, and that North Korea is thumbing its nose at us, and that Iran is weaponizing to threaten Israel. They don’t even notice yet that their fundraising is disappointing, and their base is losing faith in their leaders in Washington. They don’t realize that their policies are opposed by a majority of Americans, and that dozens of prominent Democrats may soon be tarred with new ethics scandals.

They don’t see the canary gasping in the coalmine.

Then every once in a while, you run into someone who suddenly seems to get it:

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Growing up in New York, I recall an old commercial for the lottery that sought to sucker in the math-challenged by telling them ‘you gotta be in it to win it.’ While I still consider that an indefensible way for a state to get people to throw away their money, it’s undoubtedly true when it comes to political campaigns. You may be unable to predict the political climate months before election day (or even days before). But if you hope to have any chance of winning seats that may be unexpectedly within reach, you have to have credible candidates. So far this cycle, it’s the Republican campaign committees that are winning the race to find strong candidates for potentially-winnable races:

It’s not just the Senate races, however. The National Republican Congressional Committee has announced sought-after candidates early and often. These include Martha Roby (Alabama’s 2nd District), Van Tran (California 47th), Charles Djou (Hawaii 1st), Vaughn Ward (Idaho 1st), not to mention rematches in two races that would allow Republicans to recapture seats lost in 2008; Andy Harris vs. Freshman Rep. Frank Kratovil (Maryland 1st) and former Rep. Steve Chabot facing the man who defeated him, Rep. Steve Driehaus (Ohio 1st).

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Today I attended the RNC Chairmen’s Meeting in Maryland, just outside DC. The headlines say that Steele faces a rebellion from some members of the Committee, who are trying to take away some of his authority over Committee pursestrings. The message here is that Republicans are completely united - save for 6 or 8 members, in a committee of more than 150 - and that the Committee is unlikely to hobble the Chairman.

Steele’s speech today stressed that he is looking forward, not back:

If you can draw a conclusion from the audience, Steele’s comments seem to have gotten a warm response. The lunch audience - composed of many of the officials who’ll decide on any limits to his authority - gave him several standing ovations. I met afterwards with 6-8 of Steele’s strongest supporters; it seems one reason that the anti-Steele crowd is having trouble building support is that so many committee members are encouraged by progress on the ground. Several commented that Steele is criss-crossing the country doing dozens of local events. They say Steele is getting a great reception, with GOP foot soldiers eager to meet him. They look to the success of the Tea Party movement, and see the Tea Partiers as the core of an active and engaged grassroots movement. And they stress that of the people who’ve come out to register their anger at big spending and big borrowing, many are Independents, or unregistered voters, or even Democrats. Ohio Chairman DeWine commented that the Tea Partiers are engaging on an issue that’s ‘in the Republican wheelhouse.’

I hear analysts saying that the GOP is in dire straits, but you couldn’t guess it walking around here. These state party leaders are excited, and seemingly can’t wait for 2010 to get here.

On Friday I posted a summary of a briefing I received regarding the outlook for 2010 House races. Several readers offered comments or questions about specific races. Yesterday I received an E-mail from NRCC Political Director Brian Walsh, who has some responses on specific points:

I would like to thank everyone for providing feedback on Brian’s post about the upcoming 2010 elections and candidate recruitment. As Political Director for the NRCC, I thought I would jump in to address some questions and issues raised in the comment section.

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I recently had the opportunity to have a lengthy discussion (on background) with a source at the National Republican Congressional Committee, regarding the state of their planning for 2010. My strongest impression is that this is a team of professionals that has learned the lessons of the last few cycles and who are doing a good job setting the table for a strong cycle. No party committee can shape the environment for the 2010 election; all they can do is get the largest number of strong candidates in the largest number of winnable seats. I believe the NRCC is doing this very well so far.

My source stresses that they have shifted their overall approach. Rather than making it an overriding priority to protect the seats they now hold, they are focused on expanding the playing field. Their general approach when looking at unfriendly districts is no longer to say ‘that’s a district we can’t win,’ but to ask ‘how does a Republican win that district?’ After all, if House Democrats can take away seats with a strong Republican tilt, why can’t the GOP return the favor? This leads to candidates like Charles Djou: a member of the Honolulu City Council, who is running for the open seat left by Neil Abercrombie, who’s running for Governor of Hawaii. The seat clearly tilts Democrat (D+7), but with Democrats looking at a hotly-contested primary shortly before the general election, a good campaigner like Dijou might manage a win.

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Looking back at recent political history, one of the common features of wave elections is a nationally-known, toxic incumbent who becomes the face of the unpopular incumbent party. In 2006, Tom DeLay and Mark Foley were the unpopular faces of the Republican party whom Americans were forced to look at and hear about on the news each night. In 1994, it was people like Dan Rostenkowski. Can Republicans gain seats by tying endangered incumbents to John Murtha, and forcing them to defend their votes for his agenda? There’s no way it can hurt.

To that end, the NRCC has launched a series of radio ads in swing seats represented by incumbent Democrats who voted for the ’stimulus’ - including funding for the John Murtha airport. You can listen to the sample ad here, and get Jim Geraghty’s take on it at Campaign Spot.

A move like this one pays a number of benefits. It should make Democrats worry about associating themselves with their party’s leadership. It helps keep Murtha in the news in a negative light. It reminds the 9 targeted Members (Kissell, Shea-Porter, Herseth-Sandlin, Childers, Schrader, Arcuri, Snyder, Schauer, and Teague) that they are in the NRCC crosshairs, and may lead them to vote against the leadership more often. And lastly, it helps in recruiting by signaling to potential candidates that the NRCC is willing to spend money to defeat these Members.

If you’re represented by one of these Members, and have the chance to ask why they’re voting for Murtha’s agenda, feel free to share the response you get.

Colorado is likely to be home to several competitive races in 2010: notably Senator Michael Bennet’s first re-election run, two Democrat-held House seats, and hopefully Governor Ritter’s re-election bid. With that in mind, it’s encouraging to see early signs of disaffection with President Obama:

Barack Obama and Mark Udall each won their elections in Colorado last year by pretty solid margins, but Public Policy Polling’s first look at their approval numbers since taking office finds relatively weak numbers for them in the state.

Obama receives approval from 49% of voters with 45% dissenting. For Udall it’s just 41% approval and 46% disapproving.

For each that’s a much smaller swath of the electorate approving of their job performance than voted for them last fall, and it looks like a lot of that may have to do with their standing among independent voters.

An average of PPP’s final three Colorado polls last year found Obama and Udall both doing spectacularly well among independent voters. Obama had a 24 point lead with them and Udall led by 27. But now only 48% of independents approve of what the President is doing with 47% disapproving and for Udall the spread is negative at 41/48.

The midterms are a long way off, but numbers like this will aid both in candidate recruitment and early fundraising. In a formerly red state that has trended blue, we’ll need both.

I wrote yesterday about the most recent New York poll showing both Governor Paterson and Senator Gillibrand in trouble in their 2010 re-election bids. The Politico notes that these races are just one part of a what seems to be a hopeful GOP resurgence in the region:

In Connecticut, there is an unexpected opportunity to unseat veteran Sen. Chris Dodd (D-Conn.) in 2010. In New Jersey, incumbent Gov. Jon Corzine (D) trails his Republican challenger in the polls. Several House races seem promising in neighboring New York, where Democratic Gov. David Paterson’s bungling of a recent Senate appointment has jeopardized both his seat and the one now held by Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand (D-N.Y.)…

The economic crisis is also fueling opposition to Dodd, a five-term senator whose personal financial dealings and role as Senate Banking Committee chairman have been closely scrutinized and under attack. His recent admission concerning the insertion of a provision into the stimulus legislation — the one that effectively allowed American International Group employees to receive millions in bonuses — threatens to derail his bid for a sixth term in 2010.

Former Rep. Rob Simmons (R-Conn.), who entered the race last week, immediately blasted Dodd for “failing in his oversight duties” as chairman. And he accused Democrats of backing legislation that would stifle economic growth — sounding off on the major theme of his campaign…

After seeing the party’s 2006 gubernatorial nominee get thrashed by Spitzer, Republicans are optimistic about their chances in 2010 — especially if former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani, who has said he is considering a gubernatorial campaign, jumps in. Polls have shown him leading the embattled Democratic governor.

Elsewhere in New York, several promising GOP recruits have emerged in upstate House races where Republicans have traditionally run well. Businessman Richard Hanna, who came within 4 points of defeating Rep. Michael Arcuri (D-N.Y.) last year, is seriously considering a rematch. And 31-year-old Assemblyman Greg Ball, a Republican who has attracted notice for bucking his party’s Albany establishment, is poised to present a tough challenge to Rep. John Hall (D-N.Y.).

These aren’t the only races in the Northeast where Republicans can be competitive next year. Apart from the 3 New York races, there are several prominent GOPers looking at a race against Carol Shea-Porter (D-NH). There will be strong Republican candidates in several races in Pennsylvania, and I am hearing talk of promising candidates against other New York Democrats. According to Charlie Cook, there are 10 House seats in New England, New York, and Pennsylvania whose partisan performance is such that Republicans could run competitive races. By way of comparison, Republicans currently hold 10 seats in the entire region. I don’t expect to win all of them, but we ought to run competitive candidates in all of them. And if we win half, we will have expanded our representation in the region by 50 percent.

All this begins of course, with a win in New York’s 20th Congressional district a week from today. You can do your part to get the ball rolling by donating to Tedisco today:

New York is a deep blue state, with a populace that says the nation is on the right track, and which gives Barack Obama high marks. That should be the perfect setting for Democratic incumbents to cruise to re-election, right?

Not so much:

…If a Democratic primary for Governor were held today, [incumbent Dem Governor David] Paterson would lose to Attorney General Andrew Cuomo by nearly four-to-one, and Paterson would be easily beaten in a general election by former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani…

In a hypothetical 2010 Democratic primary for Governor, Cuomo leads Paterson 67-17 percent, up from last month?s 53-27 percent. In December Paterson led 49-26 percent. In a potential general election matchup, Giuliani beats Paterson 56-33 percent, up from 51-36 percent last month. Paterson led 51-38 percent in December. Cuomo leads Giuliani 51-41 percent, similar to last month?s 51-38 percent…

“New Yorkers, who give the President a 70-23 percent favorable rating, believe the country is headed on the right track, however, they say the Empire State is headed in the wrong direction,” Greenberg said…

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Democrats in Congress are set to draft another ’stimulus’ package — one that will waste hundreds of billions of dollars on projects that were too sketchy to make it into their first trillion dollar spending bill. They would have you believe that just like the pork-filled first bill was justified, so is this boondoggle. But it looks more like Democrats are simply too panicked about the slow pace of ‘recovery,’ so they’re looking to throw more of your money at the problem:

Democratic House members say they have less time to wait for signs of economic recovery than President Barack Obama , a conflict of timing that lawmakers say has become increasingly evident in their dealings with the White House…

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You may have remembered that Ms. Daly had been placed by the Obama White House last month in its counsel office, despite the fact that she has no actual legal credentials. It was widely assumed - justifiably, in my opinion - that this was due to the fact that she’s quite the political sheet-sniffer, which was apparently what the administration thought that it needed right now.

Apparently the DNC needs her more:

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(Via Hot Air Headlines) It’s very sad:

A moment last Monday, just after noon, in Manhattan. It’s slightly overcast, not cold, a good day for walking. I’m in the 90s on Fifth heading south, enjoying the broad avenue, the trees, the wide cobblestone walkway that rings Central Park. Suddenly I realize: Something’s odd here. Something’s strange. It’s quiet. I can hear each car go by. The traffic’s not an indistinct roar. The sidewalks aren’t full, as they normally are. It’s like a holiday, but it’s not, it’s the middle of a business day in February. I thought back to two weeks before when a friend and I zoomed down Park Avenue at evening rush hour in what should have been bumper-to-bumper traffic.

This is New York five months into hard times.

She then goes on to list all the shops that are going away, compares Sullenberger to that woman with the octuplets, how we’re all lost and need to get back on track, yadda yadda. Actually, that last bit’s kind of true: we should get back on track. So, just because I’m a nice guy, I’d thought that I’d provide her with a little list:

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For House liberals, there can never be enough spending:

Some House Democrats are working furiously to reinstate funds the Senate cut from an $789 billion economic stimulus package speeding to the floor this week.

In particular, progressive Democrats and members of the Congressional Black Caucus would like to see more money for social spending programs that was cut from the Senate package over the weekend in a deal with three moderate Republican senators. It’s not clear if they will get all their wishes, but the deal announced this afternoon will be finalized in the coming hours.

The CBC sent House negotiators a letter Wednesday asking them to add an additional $4.2 billion for the federal government to lend states money to acquire foreclosed homes, another $4 billion for job-training programs and $14 billion for school construction.

They would also like to see more money for broadband Internet access for impoverished neighborhoods and protections in the bill to ensure minority-owned businesses will benefit.

“I’m all for bipartisanship, but I don’t consider three Republican senators bipartisan,” said Missouri Rep. Emanuel Cleaver, who oversees economic recovery issues for the CBC. “Let’s not deny who we are legislatively for three senators.”

Some of the money is already being reinserted in the bill, Cleaver said, pointing to the money for states to buy foreclosed homes.

When will this bill be done?

If Congress votes on this plan tomorrow - as seems to be the current plan - there’s no way legislators can know what they’re voting on. That’s something that ought to concern Democrats as well as Republicans, who will have to answer to the voters for everything in the bill - whether they know it’s there or not.

I’ll give Joe Biden this: he is making me seriously re-examine my pre-election statements that he was a terrible pick for Vice President. Did you know he went to the House Democratic retreat the other day, and warned them that their vote for the Obama-Reid-Pelosi debt bill would be used against them in 2010?

Democratic Members and staff were grumbling about the path that the House-passed stimulus measure had taken in the Senate, where a coalition of moderates from both parties worked to strip politically embarrassing spending items that House Democrats approved, several senior Democratic aides said.

Others were frustrated that Republicans appeared to be winning the messaging war over the package, having hijacked the debate by focusing on those items. That was a sentiment echoed by President Barack Obama on Thursday night in a campaign-style speech that sought to put the party back on offense by taking sharp aim at GOP critiques.

Still, some House Democrats were quietly wondering what took the president so long, since they have spent the past two weeks taking fire over the measure.

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