A few months ago, a Republican U.S. Senator told me that he pleaded with White House Chief of Staff Rahm Emanuel to pressure the HELP Committee Democrats to let the Republicans negotiate and help shape the bill, since the Democrats were not listening or including the Republicans in any discussions. Senator Kennedy’s staff told the Republican Senator to take a hike. No one told Senator Kennedy’s staff otherwise. (Senator Dodd was torn between helping his dying friend and letting Kennedy’s legendary staff be his legendary staff.)

On the House side, Chairman Waxman gave the Blue Dogs on his own Committee, and Blue Dogs outside the Committee the closed mouth, no information treatment. Forget about influencing the bill, he did not tell them what was in it until it was too late. The Blue Dogs told Chairman Waxman what they wanted, he just ignored them.

All the while President Obama was publicly “reaching out” to Republicans — while his Leadership colleagues in Congress ignored Republicans, and ignored Democrats in their own party.

Thus was born ObamaCare, of a strategy to allow the far left (Speaker Pelosi and Chairman Waxman) to design the plan and ignore those who disagreed, while publicly and repeatedly the President said he wanted to work with Republicans.

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The President’s most trusted advisor, David Axelrod told Politico:

“I think it’s fairly obvious that we’re not in the second inning. We’re not in the fourth inning. We’re in the eighth or ninth inning here, and so there’s not a lot of time to waste.”

That is about as good as it gets in terms of any admission from the White House that their signature initiative is in trouble (to continue the baseball analogy, the White House is behind) and the game is winding down.

A mid-August poll by Rasmussen of likely voters put President Obama’s support for a health reform bill at 34% without the public option:

“Just 34% of voters nationwide support the health care reform plan proposed by President Obama and congressional Democrats if the so-called “public option” is removed. The latest Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey shows that 57% oppose the plan if it doesn’t include a government-run health insurance plan to compete with private insurers.”

CBS News today had more bad health care polling news for the President:

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The number of likely voters who approve of the way that Barack Obama is performing his role as President is at 45 percent. (Note: other pollsters poll “Adults” instead of likely voters. Polling adults inflates President Obama’s approval rating.)

The President’s continued pushing of a politically lethal health care plan is to blame. But the three horsemen of the Democratic Party’s Apocalypse: Speaker Pelosi, Chairman Waxman and President Obama keep on riding the Death Horse.

As the Wall Street Journal put it today: “‘What we’re seeing now, both in terms of numbers and the feel out there, this is how big waves feel early on,” said Charlie Cook, editor of the Cook Political Report.”

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The Washington Post is reporting that Senator Grassley, the ranking member of the Senate Finance Committee, has been convinced by his August recess experience (like this one) to stand-down on broad spectrum health care reform. The Post also quotes Senator Snowe, one of the three Republicans that make up the Gang of Six negotiating health care reform with the Chairman Baucus, the Chairman of the Senate Finance Committee, as saying the main take away from the August recess is that people like their health care the way it is now.

The effect of Grassley and Snowe backing off means Obamacare can never — not ever — get 60 votes in the Senate, because Senator Grassley’s and Senator Snowe’s agreement would have put enormous pressure on the moderate Democratic Senators to play ball on the Obama plan. And if you read between the lines of Senator Grassley’s quotes in the Post story, it is clear the American public do not believe the President’s campaign promise “if you like your plan you can keep it.”

Now, Senator Grassley is supporting, he says, a narrower measure. What narrower measure? Good question. I am sure that the Gang of Six, or however many are left, will let us know when they decide.

Yet another blow to Obamacare came from Charlie Cook. In what constitutes an emergency political message to the Democratic Congress, election analyst Charlie Cook sent out a special, unscheduled newsletter to his subscribers. According to Politico, Cook warned the political situation in August (read: Obamacare) “has slipped completely out of control.” Cook is so hyper-sensitive to criticizing his Democratic colleagues, he did not even use the words health care. Instead, he cited “August.”

Charlie Cook says in his emergency warning newsletter to the Democrats that his own estimates of a loss of 8 to 12 Dem House seats “are far too low.” Cook added, “We believe it would be a mistake to underestimate the impact that this mood will have on Members of Congress of both parties when they return to Washington in September, if it persists through the end of the Congressional recess.”

First, the moderate GOP Senators Grassley and Snowe back off big picture health care reform. Then, Cook warns the Dems that his estimates of them losing a dozen seats in the House next election are “far too low.” And President Obama’s approval ratings are at an all time low, and yet, President Obama still is out trying to drum up support for Obamacare. He keeps doing what is causing his polls to sink.

And is that Obamacare with or without a public plan? Who knows? A majority of the Ameircan public want Congress to do nothing on health care reform. Nothing, yet President Obama keeps pushing Obamacare.

It is beginning to look like this analysis, posted Sunday, was right on the money.

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SWAY is a fascinating book about irrational human behavior, hence its title: SWAY, The Irresistible Pull of Irrational Behavior, by Ori Brafman and Rom Brafman (2008, published by Broadway Books).

In particular, the lessons painted by the book are clearly applicable to the health care debate engulfing the United States, the Congress and the White House. Prior to making the intellectual lash ups between the lessons of SWAY and the health care debate, a look at the key tenets of the book is essential.

It is impossible to do the book justice in the few words below, or from the excerpts below, but here are six central tenets/causes of irrational human behavior that are documented in SWAY, which are among the base causes of irrational human behavior:

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…Then all of the political consequences that both he and Speaker Pelosi are now experiencing make sense. It explains the most inexplicable thing to me: why did the President over-rule his Chief of Staff on the question of siding with MoveOn.org early on in the health care debate over the public option? Because President Obama has always wanted a single payer system.

The media refuses to report this, but opposition to the public option is one of the hardest points of opposition within the Blue Dog revolt. Like making abortion a benefit paid for by taxpayer dollars, the public option is a binary thing — you are either at yes or no (zero or one) on the question.

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Note to historians, the following is a list of strange consequences from Obama’s self-destructive health care reform obsession:

i) Spooked the conservative Democrats who are disrupting the Committee on Energy and Commerce markup and pending floor vote because of their policy concerns about the government option;
ii) telegraphed to the moderate Republicans and moderate Democrats that President Obama agrees with Senator Ted Kennedy, Senator Chris Dodd and Chairman Waxman, in general, about the role of government in health care, making the plan an easy target for opponents;

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