It looks like US Senate Candidate Rob Portman will be forced to waste money fighting an ad war with primary opponent Tom Ganley.  The Cleveland car dealer seems intent on spending millions of his own money despite little likelihood of winning.  He has made his first ad buy as part of that strategy:

Republican Senate candidate Tom Ganley, the car dealer from Cleveland who has said he will put up millions of dollars in his own money on the race, is on the air statewide with an ad that aims to highlight his ability to create jobs, according to his campaign.

Ganley is trying to buy his way into a competitive primary.  Unlike Portman who is well on his way to visiting all 88 counties in Ohio, and has been tirelessly campaigning, Ganley is simply vowing to spend millions on advertising.  The only winners in this battle are going to be TV stations and ad consultants.

Ganley has a mistaken view of the recent race in NY-23 and is going to waste a lot of time, effort and money as a result. For why, see below.

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Rothenberg has done a great service by documenting the most accurate pollsters which most accurately predicted the results of last Tuesday’s elections.

In the heat of predictable arguments about which polls are the most accurate leading up to the 2010 mid-term elections, Rothenberg’s list of the most accurate pollsters in the off-year elections will provide the list of the the handful which should be listened to, and which should be ignored.

Here they are:

Rothenberg’s Pollster of the Cycle Award: “SurveyUSA, which once again proved its worth, at least in pre-election polls. The firm’s final Virginia numbers were eerily close…”

The other handful of firms who were the next closest: Public Policy Polling and Quinnipiac University.

Research2000 was called out by Rothenberg was called out for being the most inaccurate because of its overstatement of support for Deeds in Virginia.

Interesting, Rothenberg called the media to task for describing “Dede Scozzafava, the Republican nominee in New York’s 23rd district, as a moderate.” Rothenberg says:

“Scozzafava doesn’t only support abortion rights - often a marker for Republican “moderates” - she supports gay marriage. But she doesn’t only support gay marriage; she supported President Barack Obama’s stimulus proposal that not a single House Republican favored. But she didn’t just support the stimulus package; she supports the Employee Free Choice Act (what opponents call “card check”), which is opposed by virtually the entire business community. And in the end, of course, she endorsed the Democrat in the race.

Scozzafava is a liberal Republican by any standard, and she should have been labeled as such. She is more liberal than every Republican in the House of Representatives and many Democrats.”

Dede Scozzafava, the has been former Republican candidate for NY-23, voted for tax increases in the New York legislature 198 times. But, when Dede wanted to get in good with the Republican and conservative establishment, she signed the Americans For Tax Reform pledge — a piece of paper saying she would not vote for tax increases. She did not need 30 pieces of silver to get in good with the establishment.

All of a sudden the lights from Heaven shined, the Angels sang, and Dede Scozzafava was acceptable. Except she wasn’t.

Last night on Twitter, Ryan Ellis, Tax Policy Director for Americans for Tax Reform, went out of his way to heap scorn on conservative activists and tea party activists for daring to defeat Dede Scozzafava, the woman who signed a piece of paper to absolve her of all her sins.

The twittering must make conservative activists question whether Americans for Tax Reform is on our side any more. I cannot believe Grover Norquist, after all he has done for the movement, could be happy with or approve of staff treating the conservative movement so contemptuously. Yet, with that much contempt — and a pledge by ATR’s Tax Policy Director to support tax hiker Charlie Crist — one must wonder where ATR stands these days. Is it with the establishment that sunk $900,000.00 into the losing bid of Dede Scozzafava, or with the conservative movement that defeated her.

This is, after all, ATR’s Tax Policy Director, writing these things.

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The race has now been called for Democrat Bill Owens.

This is a huge win for conservatives.

“Whaaaa. . . ?” you say.

There are two big victories at work in New York’s 23rd Congressional District.

First, the GOP now must recognize it will either lose without conservatives or will win with conservatives. In 2008, many conservatives sat home instead of voting for John McCain. Now, in NY-23, conservatives rallied and destroyed the Republican candidate the establishment chose.

I have said all along that the goal of activists must be to defeat Scozzafava. Doug Hoffman winning would just be gravy. A Hoffman win is not in the cards, but we did exactly what we set out to do — crush the establishment backed GOP candidate.

And make no mistake, despite the Beltway spin, we know for certain based on statements from the local Republican parties, that they chose Scozzafava based on advice from the Washington crowd.

So we have demonstrated to the GOP that it must not take conservatives for granted. The GOP spent $900,000.00 on a Republican who dropped out and endorsed the Democrat. Were we to combine Scozzafava and Hoffman’s votes, Hoffman would have won.

Secondly, and just as importantly, there has all of a sudden been a huge movement among some activists to go the third party route. We see in NY-23 that this is not possible as third parties are not viable.

Third parties lack funding and ability for a host of reasons. Conservatives are going to have to work from within the GOP. The GOP had better pay attention.

For all intents and purposes, NY-23 is a trial run for Florida. And in Florida, the conservative candidate is operating inside the GOP. If John Cornyn and the NRSC do not want to see Florida go the way of NY-23, they better stand down.

These guys keep shooting themselves in the foot.

“This lady clearly has as agenda that’s different than most Republicans, she was out there promoting herself,” Boehner said, noting that he has encouraged all members of the GOP conference to support Conservative Party candidate Doug Hoffman.

Mr. Boehner, with respect, this was blindly obvious to all of us outside the Beltway. You guys have spent $900,000.00 on a leftist who returned the favor by stabbing you in the back.

If you are clueless as to who you are backing for office, exactly how can we trust you on the bigger issues? The character of a man is best revealed in how he handles the small things.

Dede Scozzafava is throwing her support to the Democrat, Bill Owens.

She and her husband are working with union activists to drive the vote up for the Democrat.

The Republican Party spent $900,000.00 to help her and this is how she repays them.

And Pete Sessions, Chairman of the NRCC, and Guy Harrison, Executive Director of the NRCC, still have their jobs and are failing to take responsibility for this disaster, instead blaming conservatives.

Editor’s Note: I suggest you read carefully as I am not an advocate of purging people like Susan Collins or the typical “RINO” as there are some races where a conservative really cannot win. I am, however, serious that the GOP must purge its staff and leaders who have decided to always go with the liberal. In particular, the NRCC, NRSC, and RNC need some wholesale job terminations of senior staff.

The race for NY-23 has taken a startling, exciting twist. Regardless of what happens on Tuesday, we know for certain the Republican candidate will not, after getting $900,000.00 in support from the Washington GOP Establishment, will not win. Scozzafava dropped out.

This is a stunning rebuke to the Republican Establishment in Washington.

The RNC and the NRCC deserve the rebuke — a rebuke they will get even if Hoffman loses because it is now virtually impossible for the Republican to win.

How much did the NRCC and RNC spend to elect a leftist? Roughly $900,000.00 of your donated money. And let’s not mince words about it. Objectively, despite what her Republican supporters say, Dede Scozzafava is a leftist, to the left of the Democrat on a host of issues that will matter in this 111th Congress.

Scozzafava’s supporters have called her a “moderate,” but her views on abortion, marriage, forced unionization, taxes, the environment, etc. etc. etc. are opposed by most Americans and most people in NY-23.

How many “great” men are going to have egg on their face when Scozzafava loses?

Pete Sessions, the Chairman of the NRCC, is now batting his eye lashes at Doug Hoffman. He is hiding behind a fig leaf. Having gone all in for Scozzafava, hoodwinked good men into soiling their reputations by standing behind this leftist, and wasting valuable resources on a victory he will not see, only now is Sessions tacitly declaring defeat.

Relationships between the Republican establishment in Washington and the conservative movement are in rubble. Thanks to Pete Sessions NOT Doug Hoffman, there is new inspiration for a third party movement to challenge the GOP — a movement that will only help the Democrats.

Good men in the GOP are now going to be challenged in primaries because of the ill-will the NRCC has generated in New York’s 23rd Congressional District.

Of all the talk of “purity test” straw men, everyone must remember it was the GOP who insisted on purely Republican candidates. It was Scozzafava’s supporters who claimed we conservatives wanted a “purity test” for candidates. That was and is nonsense. Conservatives are willing to make compromises and choose lesser Republicans who can win in races a conservative most likely cannot. NY-23 was never one of those places and now the GOP is in a world of hurt.

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Dede Scozzafava has dropped out of the NY-23 race.

In her statement, she said

I hereby release those individuals who have endorsed and supported my campaign to transfer their support as they see fit to do so. I am and have always been a proud Republican. It is my hope that with my actions today, my Party will emerge stronger and our District and our nation can take an important step towards restoring the enduring strength and economic prosperity that has defined us for generations.

She did not endorse Hoffman or Owens. No doubt she’ll vote for Owens.

More importantly, WE WON!

Now, I hope everyone rallies behind Hoffman and gives him the momentum and energy he needs to win on Tuesday. Let’s rally.

I said this was our hill to die on, but to paraphrase Patton, we won my making the other guys die on our Hill!

That’s what it looks like and it reflects what I’ve been hearing too.

The NRCC tells me directly that they are only spending money on anti-Owens ads. The anti-Hoffman YouTube? Gone. The anti-Hoffman press releases? Gone. The anti-Hoffman everything else? Gone.

The pro-Dede Scozzafava stuff? Gone too.

The RNC ground crews? They are pulling out to New Jersey.

The Dede Scozzafava campaign says this is all false. Then again, they say she is a Republican too.

H/T to Ali.

As most of us watch the special election in New York, we still have a Senate primary in California to deal with. It’s the same old story, though. There are two kinds of Republicans.

One kind celebrates big government and progressive control over America. Carly Fiorina, like Dede Scozzafava, is one of those:

While some of us are fighting hard against the Obama push to nationalize the Internet, Fiorina goes behind our backs and joins them, just as Scozzafava will work with ACORN and Planned Parenthood. Meanwhile, Chuck DeVore knows the score and endorses Doug Hoffman.

There are two kinds of Republicans. Some are on our side. Some are more interested in the left. I know which I prefer to represent our party.

Well, I guess I am having some sort of impact. If I wanted validation, I guess I have it from the Scozzafava campaign. Humorously, the interview is with the Los Angeles Times.

See here:

“Her positions on a lot of issues are reflective* of the electorate here,” said Matt Burns, a Scozzafava spokesman. “If the idea is that every Republican that runs for office needs [to be] someone who fits in Georgia**, then it’s going to be very, very difficult for Republicans to gain a majority in the House of Representatives.”

Hmmm . . . I wonder why Matt Burns would be talking about Georgia.

It’s raining down here today in Macon, by the way, but it’s still bright outside. That’s either the flaming, stinking mass of Scozzafava’s campaign going down in flames, or the sun rising again on the GOP as Hoffman sails into the lead. Either way, I’m happy.

By the way, I guess being smacked in the mouth by the Weekly Standard taught the Scozzafava campaign a bit of civility in their attacks.

*I think Matt meant refractive, because where I’m sitting 81% of the district has turned away from Scozzafava.

**Or the campaign could be so dysfunctional and clueless right now that they think Newt is backing Hoffman.

Yesterday in the Politico, the NRCC said Doug Hoffman had “no path to victory” in New York’s 23rd Congressional District.

Well, guess what. According to a new poll commissioned by the Club for Growth Doug Hoffman is in first place.

Here’s the thing: it is only 300 people surveyed with a 5% margin of error. What the poll tells us for certain and very reliably is that this is a two man race between Owens, the Democrat, and Hoffman, the Conservative. Dede Scozzafava is in third place with no base of support to get her up.

Now imagine the possibilities for Hoffman if the GOP ditched Scozzafava and got behind Hoffman. The goal, after all, is to get someone who will be part of the Republican caucus in the House of Representatives. Hoffman would.

The NRCC admits it is planning a relentless barrage against Doug Hoffman so that Scozzafava does not come in third.

Pitiful.

Their advertising will be focused on promoting Scozzafava and dinging Owens, but

Two party officials tell POLITICO that the NRCC will continue to air TV ads propping up Scozzafava in the days leading up to the Nov. 3 contest and plans to keep up a near relentless barrage of press releases slamming Hoffman.

Here’s my favorite part, which is also the most insulting:

Asked why so many prominent Republicans had thrown their support to Hoffman, the official responded, “We’re dealing with data, not hopes and dreams.”

Let me be clear again: I do think Hoffman has a path to victory and the NRCC is ignoring a slew of polls showing Scozzafava slipping to third place, which is why they won’t take the heat off Hoffman. They have to save face.

But more importantly, the rest of us are dealing with data too — the data showing Dede Scozzafava is not a Republican. I cannot emphasize this enough: it is far better for the Democrat to win than Scozzafava. It is not because Scozzafava is a moderate, but because she is a liberal.

The Inside the Beltway GOP Establishment^TM needs to know it will either win with its base or not at all. And the base is willing to compromise, just not sell out.

Over at the Atlantic, Max Fisher writes about my involvement in New York 23.

I’m happy to serve as a proxy for you guys, but we need to be honest — you guys did this, not me. I’m sure the Hoffman campaign appreciates your efforts. I very much appreciate your efforts.

At the vanguard of the grassroots campaign has been Erick Erickson, blogger and editor of RedState.

Erickson has made NY23 his mission. Erickson called the race “a Hill to Die On” for conservatives. He accused Scozzafava of “Funnel[ing] Campaign Cash to Family.” He slammed Newt Gingrich, Scozzafava’s most high-profile backer, writing, “Today Newt Gingrich Takes Himself Out of the 2012 Running [...] Gingrich no longer wants to nor can he be seen as a conservative.” Erickson called for Scozzafava to withdraw and demanded new national GOP leadership. He even raised money for Hoffman. The wider conservative world took note, and soon endorsements for Hoffman rolled in from Sarah Palin, the Club for Growth, Steve Forbes, the Wall Street Journal, even sitting Congresswoman Michele Bachmann.

What was a small Congressional race in upstate New York has become all-out war among Republicans, one which Erickson’s grassroots movement seems to have won.

I have said all along, the effort here is, in the best outcome a Hoffman victory, but as long as Scozzafava loses, I’m happy. Note though that Mr. Fischer makes a mistake that suggests he leans left — he calls Scozzafava a “moderate” when her record and positions suggest anything but. Ms. Scozzafava is very much a liberal.

Fisher goes on to write:

Republican leadership may be forced to accept Erickson’s message that moderate Republicans will be destroyed and only strongly conservative candidates tolerated. If they do, Erickson and his vast grassroots network will have altered the party’s electoral orthodoxy.

I’m afraid Mr. Fischer has not paid attention to my writings. I have been clear that I agree with the GOP to the extent that candidates should match their districts. I am not opposed to, for example, a Mark Kirk in Illinois, or a Mike Castle in Delaware, though I won’t lift a finger to help him. I understand that to get to 51% we have to have our share of Chris Shays’s.

But, in races like the Florida Senate and New York 23, when a conservative can win, a conservative should be supported. Conservatives are the base of the Republican Party.

I hope I have helped change the party’s electoral orthodoxy. Right now it involves telling the base to fork over the dough and shut the hell up.

We will no longer stay silent. NY-23 makes very clear that the GOP needs the conservative base more than the conservative base needs the GOP.

Jack Abramoff, present jailbird, was convicted of all sorts of crooked schemes. One of his favorites was to funnel money through various organizations into the hands of other people.

It appears Dede Scozzafava is funneling RNC, NRCC, and donor dollars through her campaign account to her family.

Dede Scozzafava is or was until recently the Chief Operating Officer of her brother’s company.

Her company’s key subsidiaries have accumulated hundreds of thousands of dollars in state and federal tax liens. As of July 13, 2009 – or less than a week ago – three of Dede’s businesses have $192,000 in outstanding liens.

Dede’s brother is Thomas W. Scozzafava and he is married to Pearl Han Ashcraft.

Dede Scozzafava’s campaign has paid $3750.00 in disclosed expenses to Pearl Han Productions, LLC for “Strategic Consulting,” the most bland of descriptions.

Here’s where it gets interesting.

Given the campaign’s propensity to file false police reports against reporters, I have no doubt this was intentionally designed to obfuscate what is going on.

On Scozzafava’s disclosures, Pearl Han Productions, LLC is located at 2001 S.E. Sailfish Pt. Blvd. #112, Stuard, NY 34996. There is just one problem. No such place exists.

What does exist, however, is 2001 S.E. Sailfish Pt. Blvd. #112, Stuart, FL 34996, a beautiful ocean front condo.

At that address, you’ll find Pearl Han Productions, LLC, incorporated in the State of Florida. (PDF). The person in charge is Pearl Ashcraft, Dede’s sister-in-law.

And if you think all that is too much of a coincidence, or maybe you think the campaign disclosure had just an innocent typo as to the address, consider this fact: Pearl Han Productions, LLC was not incorporated in the State of Florida until after the New York Republican Party made Dede Scozzafava its nominee.

Scozzafava was chosen on August 19, 2009, and eight days later on August 27, 2009, Pearl Han Productions, LLC was filed with the Secretary of State and reviewed a day later by that office.

Scozzafava doesn’t look to be just an ACORN candidate, but also more and more looks like an Abramoff Republican.

It’s going to be a busy few days, up in NY-23. Some of the stuff that’s of interest:

• PJTV discusses Tea Parties, third parties, and the NY-23 race.  Glenn Reynolds, Bill Whittle and Dana Loesch are actually all in agreement that the first creating the second would not be the optimal response right now; what’s better would be that making sure that politicians stop getting to run unopposed in primaries and general elections. (I agree.)
• Dan Riehl (via Instapundit) wants to point out that the national GOP organizations didn’t pick Scozzafava; the local one did, and the long-term answer is to get actual conservatives in those positions of authority. (I agree: we always need more precinct committeemen.)
• Jim Geraghty notices one of those odd coincidences, in the process of noting that Scozzafava happened to probably violate state law in filing a false police report.
• R.S. McCain’s gone to New York.  So has Dick Armey.
• And… there are rumors.

That last one I don’t know if I buy. Yet.

Moe Lane

PS: Doug Hoffman for Congress.

Crossposted to Moe Lane.

Republicans could use to hold New York’s 23rd Congressional District. As it stands, because of poor choices along the way, the Democrat is in the lead.

We know now, confirmed by multiple sources inside and outside the various campaigns, that Dede Scozzafava has fallen into third place. Her recent behavior indicates a candidate who has lost control of the message, the campaign, and any chance of winning.

The Republican National Committee had given multiple indications to the media and bloggers that it would be staying out of this race. As soon as it was duly reported, the RNC jumped in. This is a little noted fact that should be better highlighted. Frankly, the NRCC’s determination to get in and make a go of it was a more honest and credible effort than that of the RNC — still stupid, but more honest.

The NRCC has just now started spending on ads for NY-23. Our understanding is that the ads will mostly focus on attacking the Democrat. The NRCC would be wise to go that course instead of spending a dime on Dede Scozzafava.

That leads us to Scozzafava. With just over a week to go before the election, we strongly believe Dede Scozzafava should withdraw from the race and throw her support to Doug Hoffman. It is objective fact that Scozzafava is in third place in the race. It is objective fact that she has the bulk of the Republican Party, despite the help of official organs of the party, and the totality of the Democratic Party aligned against her.

She was always a terrible choice. In the end, she has become liar, filing a false police report because a journalist dared ask a question she did not like and then using leftwing media in an attempt to smear the journalist. This campaign is a national embarrassment for the Republican Party.

Dede Scozzafava should withdraw from this race and offer her support to Doug Hoffman. LIkewise, should the RNC and NRCC continue spending funds on this race, the money should be spent against the Democrat and not for Scozzafava or against Hoffman.

So, just how bad was this photo op that Dede Scozzafava had to try to push back on Doug Hoffman?

This bad. From our super-secret hidden peanut gallery (names left in because they said to):

streiff: I was an evaluator on a live fire exercise back in 84 when a herd of free range cattle moped into the impact area and about 200 troops decided they were much more fun to shoot at than 55-gal drums filled with dirt. I wish I had pictures of the outcome of that because that is what her photo op is like

Neil Stevens: Streiff: You aren’t comparing Dede with a cow are you? Because that wouldn’t be right.

streiff: actually, I was thinking of one particular cow that had a rear leg chopped off by an M-60 machinegun

…no, that image wasn’t pretty: then again, neither was this.

This got triggered by the refutation of Dede Scozzafava’s allegation that John McCormack - John McCormack - screamed questions at her, I think. Jim Geraghty’s had enough, and so have I.

The time has come for the RNC and NRCC to ask for their money back. This goes well beyond any reasonable difference on policy. There’s room in the party for pro-choice Republicans and pro-gay marriage Republicans and maybe even the odd pro-card-check Republican. But not this kind of arrogance, this kind of clumsy dishonesty, this kind of reckless hostility to a reporter and a publication that need not be an enemy.

The RNC and NRCC are better than the Scozzafava campaign; it’s time for them to demonstrate that they know how a candidate and her staff are supposed to react when asked a question, and show that Scozzafava’s team’s behavior is just not acceptable.

It’s time for the national GOP to - reluctantly, and I understand their reluctance! - drop Dede Scozzafava and go with Doug Hoffman.  This isn’t a situation where the national party is overriding the will of local primary voters; it is a situation where a particular choice of candidate turned out to be the wrong one.  Bad choices may be reversed.  It’s also time for Ms. Scozzafava to act in the best interests of first the voters of NY-23; and second, the Republican party; by dropping out of the race.  As it stands she is helping the Democratic candidate, whose presence in Congress and support of the current ruling party would certainly hurt the former.

Moe Lane

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Chris Cillizza is now reporting what I have been hearing from multiple sources for a week now.

Dede Scozzafava is now in third place in New York’s 23rd Congressional District.

That may explain why Scozzafava, through her husband who also happens to be the head of the AFL-CIO up in that neck of the woods, called the cops to chase away reporters daring to ask inconvenient questions.

But can, as Cillizza asks, Hoffman win?

I think the answer is absolutely yes. As Scozzafava implodes her voters are going to go elsewhere. With Hoffman in second place and voters most likely backing Scozzafava because of the “R” next to her name, the voters will go to the real Republican in the race — Hoffman.

Hoffman is the strongest challenger to the Democrat and gives the only real contrast to the Democrat. Hoffman can win if we help.