Key Political Developments

Senate Update

Arkansas: A new Public Policy Polling survey (3/20-22; 600 registered AR voters) shows some surprising vulnerability for so-called moderate Sen. Blanche Lincoln (D). Against former US Attorney Tim Griffin (R), she leads only 46-37%. Paired with state Sen. Gilbert Baker (R), her advantage is a similar: 48-37%. The Senator’s job approval number is a lackluster 45:40.

California: Confirming previous speculation, Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger (R) stated publicly that he will not challenge Sen. Barbara Boxer (D) next year. Boxer now becomes a heavy favorite for a fourth term.

Connecticut: Research 2000, for the ultra-leftwing Daily Kos national blog, released the results of their Connecticut survey (3/23-25; 600 likely CT voters), and it shows ethically challenged Sen. Christopher Dodd in a bit better position than from last week’s Q-Poll (Quinnipiac University; Dodd trailing Simmons 43-42%). Here, Dodd leads former Rep. Rob Simmons (R-CT-2) 45-40%, with a job approval rating of 47:40. The Senator has a much bigger lead when paired with another potential GOP candidate, state Sen. Sam Caligiuri: 51-30%. CNBC business news commentator Larry Kudlow ended speculation that he would run for the Senate via public announcement earlier in this week.

Florida: Gov. Charlie Crist (R) may soon take his most definitive step toward running for the state’s open Senate race next year. Insiders claim that he will now form a Senatorial exploratory committee before the state legislature’s scheduled recess on May 1. Democrats will virtually concede the Senate seat to Crist in order to try and win what promises to be a competitive gubernatorial race.

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Key Political Developments

Senate Update

Ohio: A new Quinnipiac University poll shows a wide open US Senate race in the Buckeye State. Lt. Gov. Lee Fisher (D) leads former Bush Budget Director Rob Portman 41-33% in the large sample poll (1,299 respondents), conducted from March 10-15. Portman trails Jennifer Brunner (D), the very partisan Ohio Secretary of State, 39-34%. Meanwhile, the same survey shows Gov. Ted Strickland (D) leading former Rep. John Kasich (R-OH-12) by a sizable 20-point margin, 51-31%. The poll is particularly good news for Portman because his statewide name ID is only 32%. Of the people who can identify him, his favorability ratio is a strong 25:7.

New Hampshire: Rep. Carol Shea-Porter (D-NH-1) announced she will not run for the Senate next year, thus giving fellow ultra-liberal Rep. Paul Hodes (D-NH-2) a clear shot at the Democratic nomination. No decision as yet regarding whether former Sen. John Sununu (R) will get into the race. Sen. Judd Gregg (R) is retiring. Should Sununu not run, former Gov. Steve Merrill (R), whose popularity ratings topped 65% when he left office, has not ruled out a Senatorial attempt.

New York: Democrats are about to tear themselves apart over appointed Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand. Ten of her former New York congressional colleagues signed a letter to the state Democratic chairman demanding that the party stop promoting Gillibrand without mentioning the other potential candidates. Reps. Carolyn McCarthy (D-NY-4), Steve Israel (D-NY-2), and Manhattan Borough President Scott Stringer (D) are all considering the race. Not surprisingly, McCarthy and Israel were among the ten members who signed the letter.

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Late yesterday, Kansas Governor Kathleen Sebelius (Democrat) succumbed to pressure and gave up on her attempt to hold state employee paychecks and taxpayer overpayment refunds hostage for $225,000,000.00 in ransom.

Sebelius’s overspending on unnecessary programs, and unwillingness to heed warnings last year from the Republican-led state legislature that a failure to trim budgetary fat would lead to a 2009 crisis, put Kansas’ state government in such a budget crunch that its only options were to cut hundreds of millions of dollars from its bloated budget or to add to the $550,000,000.00 it had already borrowed from itself in late 2008 — a total that must, by law, be repaid by the June 30 end of the 2009 fiscal year.

The Republican legislature addressed the crisis by passing a measure to cut the budget by $326,000,000.00 — around 4.25% per department, according to the Kansas City Star.

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The Associated Press’s Beth Fouhy reports that there’s enthusiasm among GOP Governors for the spending plan being debated in Congress:

Most Republican governors have broken with their GOP colleagues in Congress and are pushing for passage of President Barack Obama’s economic aid plan that would send billions to states for education, public works and health care.

Their state treasuries drained by the financial crisis, governors would welcome the money from Capitol Hill, where GOP lawmakers are more skeptical of Obama’s spending priorities.

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