Talking Down The Economy


Bradley Schiller calls shenanigans on the Obama Administration’s efforts to compare the current economic downturn to the Great Depression. And he brings in the factoids to back up his argument.

I have written this before, but it bears repeating: In December, 2000, George W. Bush accurately warned that the country was entering a recession. He was right, but he got attacked because he wasn’t Mr. Happy and Optimistic in his rhetoric. In the aftermath of 9/11, the former President told us that we would come through despite the calamity that had been inflicted on the country and urged us to continue our normal commercial activities by way of trying to maintain economic activity and prevent the country from falling into a deeper recession. For this, he was attacked for being excessively Mr. Happy and Optimistic. And no one batted an eyelash.

Now, Barack Obama is comparing our current recession to the Great Depression and completely getting away with it. There has been hardly any media pushback concerning his blatant misreading of history.

Think that effective and workable policies will emanate from this misreading of history?

Yeah, me neither.


Obama Is Wrong. Radical Tax Cutting IS The Answer.


Barack Obama has been very consistent about several elements of his storyline. It has three basic parts: First, the financial system just needs a little confidence. Second, the economy just needs a huge dose of spending on left-wing priorities. Third, and key to the point here, tax cuts don’t work.

Obama always frames the point about taxes in a political context, something like: “the last eight years have proven that tax cuts are bad for the economy.” So by taking him at his word, I’m at risk of misreading statements that may be meant only to shift blame for the difficult economy onto the Republicans. But here goes, anyway.

The great and abiding fear of Obama and his advisers, is a deflationary spiral, in which wages and prices fall, and people who owe money find it harder and harder to get by. (Debt-service generally consists of periodic payments of fixed size, so if the real value of the payments increases as overall prices fall, then debtors start defaulting more.)

And history suggests when you get a deflationary spiral, you can’t get out of it, and it sticks around for years. What history? The Great Depression, and the “lost decade” in Japan. (Shockingly, Obama even mentioned the lost decade in his press conference the other night. Aren’t Presidents supposed to avoid talking about worst-case scenarios?)

Unfortunately, there are several big problems with Obama’s approach.

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